The trend since the Salvador event has been downwards, price action has yet to prove it can move past that high just yet.



This is the recovery today but mostly its a repeat, when we are above the yellow line we have better momentum to proceed with.  The bullish part would be the low is higher then the previous lows on prior sell days so it could be we resolve upwards and challenge that upper price range.

Complexity are rated the favorites vs Faze now but 3 maps is a good bet, I think they both showed they win this and 3 maps is the easiest way to go.   Later on I'll bet Navi win against whoever, I cant bet that in advance and I have to go out hopefully I'll be back in time if its 3 maps for this game I will   That also means whoever wins will be slightly more tired for it, going into the next game.
   Complexity to win in 2 maps is 2.8 otherwise I dont like the odds and Faze win is over 4x with 2 or 3 maps selected in the scores.   Broky was doing good work and all of them are on form seems like, Faze are 10 ranks over Col but I do agree Col to win but I'll go mostly with 3 maps

I dont like to give out definite answers but the answer why the amount paid is variable is within the details given on the interest page.     The time of calculation is variable and though the rate quoted is yearly it is worked out every day and only compounds to that amount so its calculated very precisely.   Also they state there is no lock in period, so I might get paid interest for the day early on and withdraw at that time also even though most of the day is yet to occur.   I dont think they are paying me early and handing me a free days interest.
   If I were an oil prince say with a 100 mil deposited and my daily interest were 10k then I could be just swapping some out to use elsewhere before depositing back later.  I reckon they do count how long its been deposited for and perhaps only full days count, maybe similar to FUN token having something like a day lag to benefits.

Small budget bettors matter far more then you might think because there is so many of them, collectively they add up to alot and can make all the difference in revenue for any enterprise.  Also its not a good idea to turn away or discourage the smallest bettors because they represent growth and may become large bettors, I dont favor the whale thinking behind peoples thinking to alot of BTC its not all about the largest players in any game.

Perseverance, if you bet large expecting to win big within a few minutes you are either going to receive that proportion of luck available or join the rest of us in normal result which is nothing big.   If you want to make a profit you might need a longer plan then just right now, I try to spread out my game playing so the money isnt all gone too soon because I dont know how long I need to trigger a decent win when I first start playing.   Always try and learn the game properly first so you are happy to do it properly but yea lots of times I thought I'd not get anything but a series of wins came through and walked away in a decent profit, happens sometimes but not always of course.

Complexity putting up a great fight vs Navi just now, taking it to 3 maps and deserving recognition as a threat to every team looks like; great tug of war between the two despite the rank gap.   They did make mistakes and lost rounds on time with the nightmare ending to the series defeating themselves in effect by not setting the bomb up in time just simply forgetting how pivotal having bomb close by is.   They'll improve their rough edges and were behind on rounds in any case, as a bettor its good for us they get knocked down to play the lower bracket I think.    I actually played vs boombl4 in MM once, nothing serious of course but anyone can lose ground in CS at times and Complexity are great in a giant killing way, good underdog bet hopefully the odds are good for that in future.
   3 maps for OG vs Faze, too close for me to think about maybe during live bets

Protect children by educating them in how risks work in gambling and various scenarios; we used to operate circus sideshows with  that kind of game because risk is that normal really even my maths lessons were taught that way.   I dont agree with the increasingly common take that denial of choice is superior to raising awareness in people as to risk vs rewards in an honest way.   I hope they find a balance because they need the tax revenue if nothing else and if people choose to take part in an activity as part of their leisure and the money is spare its perfectly normal activity.
  I understand this is for businesses to operate within the guidelines and thats fair enough also, so long as we dont go down the dead end of censorship of games as a solution.

Ideally one way to collect the BTC is by capturing the bottom price every year and selling the top price every year but of course thats easier said then done.    If we go with the view every year ongoing is likely to see higher prices overall then we have to keep some idea of being more bullish after sell offs because almost always its outside news like China once again confirms they are a communist military dictatorship; luckily we still have the free will to understand this is their weakness and rigidity is not always strength they presume.
  Theres a 4 year cycle observable and many complications but I hope to keep improving my trading back and forth while still being net positive overall.

China has been creating FUD since the fifties, its mostly been to the detriment of its own people and an aid to the elite within that country often at the cost of deaths to the normal population.   Their latest set of actions have sometimes included kidnapping the rich heads of industry to remind them they live under the gun not the idea of efficient business and profit.  There is little to respect in the actions of a party that uses violence as their logic, Im far more interested in India finding the right path if we are merely discussing large countries or just Asia in general has to get past what negatives China might construct in its regional influence.
  Same is true for western government, if BTC only relies on politics for positive or negative attitude in its gains I dont expect it to last as it must be far beyond reliance on failing historic currency standards and the political over shadowing that has occurred and obstructed economies for years.

If they are weakening the yuan then its likely going to reverse gains made in the last year against the dollar which means we should expect a stronger dollar for the moment I guess.   Also a default or fear of loss can mean less speculative movement away from the dollar, generally that all makes the market more bearish and likely to retract some.   I think overall we recognize all paper money is gradually losing money every year and consistently for decades now but there are spikes in volatility also in that process and this is one of those times most likely.  The central banks to aid liquidity do not solve the problem, they just hope to snuff out any evidence of the failure.

Problem at the moment is despite the 50 day rising above the 200 day, the more important 200 day measure is now falling due to the continued weakness post peak this year.  I take the 50 year average as more reliable and averaging main markets and weekend trading also and thats still rising in the longer term yearly average.

To be truly bullish we'd need to break descent in the highest prices seen over months and also 200 day average is now falling every day so caution advised.
I think we do have to check or confirm the lowest prices are solid. The bottom line graph is OBV which is just adding volume to the price to try and map some kind of strength, recent price action has still been lesser then May big red bars.

$45,327 is what I've got written down for being a point we need to pass and confirm above in this recent reversal to selling.   We can trend downwards with some highs appearing before we repeat another sell, trading above that price would convince me otherwise.



45.5k is about the weekly average, again I do prefer to see us trade above that measure regularly for me to assume we are in a positive trending market rather then just a bounce after a sell.   Also so far it would appear the volume on the negative days was greater then this latest positive movement, suggesting we must repeat and revise prices to consolidate action and move properly upwards (or test lower prices again).

Very long term the BTC price is likely to increase so long as the Dollar depreciates which seems like forever.   The idea of a hard default on debt is unlikely, what is occurring every year is a form of soft default where the value repaid is far less then value of the dollar that originally was there at the start of the 20 year or 10 year debt term etc.
  Nominally we rise, actually value gains rely on efficiency improvement and increasing usage in various ways not just direct transfer but ownership in portfolios etc.

Everything is connected but generally anything outside of BTC isnt a real reason to sell a base holding .   In a trading sense we can easily see a lower price register on BTC because of purely outside factors.   Reason being half the price quoted most often is dollar related.    I think this is a China deflationary event but also the wider picture is China is reining in its capitalist economy elements which would be a significant alteration of advances made in the last couple of decades even back to the gains post Mao.
  We could describe this as the ultimate failure inherent in communist dictatorship but also I'd say it relates to Nixon shock in that the free trade Nixon opened with China came at the same time as a purposeful policy change to dilute value of the dollar given in exchange for that free trade, I think its partly in reaction to endless inflation that China has not found capitalism as useful as it should mostly because its in part missing from the modern world thanks to central banking inflationary policy.   Larger things are in play and sure I think they matter because it relates to volatility.

Profit taking is always a large part of action, mostly its best to look for triggers and this time it was the wider market I think combined with prior gains in BTC and volume still overhead at the highest prices for 2021 which has sellers in there who bought rashly now wanting to sell on these wider market doubts.

The mythical whales argument is unfortunate, most of the market action occurs through consensus.  A whale cant turn the tide, they will get beached on the shore even the greatest of animals can be stranded alone, if any trader leaves liquidity it ends badly for them.  Wider market is bigger then that idea of puppet master large buyers.

Only reason to consider El Salvador important is as a precedent and also as establishing BTC as legal tender in international terms which the IMF heavily disagreed with apparently.  It has tax implications beyond its borders and so on.   The actual trade from the country itself is not that big, its smaller then most oil majors;  400 BTC isnt alot to me thats 8 old block rewards.   I hope they find success but the country has larger issues ongoing then 1 option in their legal tender options so it cant be judged merely from their implementation alone

I get the 1 Satoshi thing also back and forth, but then I do spend some.   I think part or maybe the largest reason why this would happen is the variable term of interest.  Its not a precise 24hr interest is it because the time of pay is varied randomly if Im remembering right, its every day but sometimes its 16hr maybe the next day it's registering 28hr since the last pay.  If it was calculating the interest by the hour not exactly the day because perhaps some people do vary their balance alot and withdraw.
  We're basically discussing the compound effect, you gained mostly in the balance from the prior interest (plus wheel spin minor stuff but largely the balance is carried over cumulatively etc.) so thats the difference observed with some of this 'wobble' back and forth.  Just a theory, I might have that wrong but I presume everyone can observe similar and so its universal.

Central banking makes them all related and lending cash to gamble is not especially a risk free form of lending vs lending on a house which is practical and justified.  Its not advisable to gamble with borrowed money but the main reason to ban is not the consumer so much but the banks who are taking on too much risk of a defaulted debt.  
  People and private companies can and should do whatever they want but the banks right now are an extension of central government due to excessive support and easy monetary policy, they dont especially have a leg to stand on as they lean so much on the central bank.  Its part of why you are unlikely to get a fair rate of return on savings, banks dont serve their depositors so much any more they are political policy reliant.

The monthly BTC price guess this month is hard just looking at it quickly.   I think the most likely outcome is a return to the 200 day average 45k, some other kind of breakout is harder to say.  The recent low was likely a good one for now, I reckon if we progress lower it'll be past the end of this month.
  I'll put one wild card bet, I dont think it happens but at least the odds match that in general consensus nobody else does either.   A proper breakdown to 30k area has proper extreme odds so I dont need to risk much, call it a hedge I'm always net long.

I understand the the idea of taking advantage of offers and great ideas to make money or whatever, but people cross the line into fraud and don't realize a company will not ignore the creation of fake accounts and wont allow it to carry on.  That's not just gambling firms, just anywhere any sector of business wont allow duplication of an advantage supposed to be for one person only.   The reason being the person who receives the offer is supposed to also be a genuine customer who helps the business in its revenue, same rule anywhere