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so what kind of currency or asset is deflationary by your definition? i can think of nothing.
if the dollar were printed by a fix number, it would be deflationary due to wear and tear or people would lose their paper notes. people will lose their BTC as well. also, BTC is deflationary because people hoard their BTC, which raises the value over time.
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it's either giong to be close to $0 or $10,000 by 2016 i'd say. there's no in between.
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I'm guessing probably 1,200-2,000 by the end of the year. It would take time for it to get to 10K.
I would be happy, because then I would have 6K+. I would probably start mining it (Mining rigs might cost over 10K though, so I would be screwed.)
you only have 3-5 BTC and you gave that amount (in the other thread) away on reddit? Probably 1-3 BTC. Yes, I have been known to do idiotic things. Luckily, for me I only gave away .22 BTC (Gave some other BTC to other people.) Back on topic: Won't be surprised if the U.S shuts it down for being higher than the USD. "Because Bitcoin is a bigger profit, YOU BETTER HAND IT OVER TO US, RITE NOW. Or else you're going to jail." Oh dat freedom. Well, at least it's better than Argentina. well, if bitcoin ever flies off beyond the moon, and i'm at retirement level AND if you are struggling financially, i'll be your insurance. just send me a PM by then... years and years into the future  |
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I'm guessing probably 1,200-2,000 by the end of the year. It would take time for it to get to 10K.
I would be happy, because then I would have 6K+. I would probably start mining it (Mining rigs might cost over 10K though, so I would be screwed.)
you only have 3-5 BTC and you gave that amount (in the other thread) away on reddit? |
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He would owe capital gains tax on the difference between the present value of the coins and the value of them at the time he obtained them (exactly the same as if he had sold the coins and bought the house with the proceeds). This tax must be paid to the country in which he bought the house, and, quite possibly, also to the U.S. If that's the case, he may want to ditch his U.S. citizenship before he buys.
Either way, he definitely needs to hire a smarter lawyer.
then wouldn't it be better to just cash out in his home country and then transfer it over to the new home country? |
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23, out of university with my MA; I was heading into a JD program, but I'm taking another year off to see what I can do with the virtual currency industry. 2014 is going to be a hell of a year.
whoa, so you totally sidetracked your professional career just for the prospect of the btc industry? |
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and the serial barbershop masturbator strokes yet again!
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subscribed.. interested in seeing the numbers. seems like 30-34 bracket is out to the early lead.
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at those rates, we'd have multiple trillionaires holding BTC. that kind of seismic wealth redistribution would really upset the wealthy elite i'd think.
simple math: 1% of 30 trillion is .3 trillion, or 300 billion dollars for the market cap... so isn't that only about 12x present day value of BTC if the market cap is $300 billion? then again, we have to add that amount to our current market cap, but that wouldn't even be enough. there may be something wrong in my math though.. feel free to correct me anyone.
You can't just dump 300 billion into btc, though. You have to compete with others in order to buy in because it's a finite supply. The price and 'market cap' goes up faster than the total amount of money coming in. Value is created out of thin air. There is nothing wrong with this, however. You are paying a premium to own a rare piece of revolutionary technology, and those who came before you are rewarded. that's what i was thinking too.. 300 billion would leave the offshore accounts, but that would drive the price up and so new wealth is created. but the whole thing would be a mess though. but there's no data or anything to suggest that 2.8 million would be the outcome. at least no data that i have access to. Yeah, I really have no idea how you would go about calculating something like this, or if it's even possible. But I do think that the sometimes quoted price of 1 million is conservative, so this did catch my eye. I think most people try to be conservative in their estimates of future btc pricing because even the conservative estimates sound ridiculous to most people. i think it would be more predictable if that 300 billion were moved all at once, with a swift blow.. but there's obviously not enough liquidity to go around for that to occur. |
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cool stuff.. i'm encouraged by the bitcoin community and their willingness to spare an mBTC or two. if this thing really takes off, i think it will be a huge paradigm shift, since the new "wealthy" wouldn't as stingy and greedy as the present day wealthy are.
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at those rates, we'd have multiple trillionaires holding BTC. that kind of seismic wealth redistribution would really upset the wealthy elite i'd think.
simple math: 1% of 30 trillion is .3 trillion, or 300 billion dollars for the market cap... so isn't that only about 12x present day value of BTC if the market cap is $300 billion? then again, we have to add that amount to our current market cap, but that wouldn't even be enough. there may be something wrong in my math though.. feel free to correct me anyone.
You can't just dump 300 billion into btc, though. You have to compete with others in order to buy in because it's a finite supply. The price and 'market cap' goes up faster than the total amount of money coming in. Value is created out of thin air. There is nothing wrong with this, however. You are paying a premium to own a rare piece of revolutionary technology, and those who came before you are rewarded. that's what i was thinking too.. 300 billion would leave the offshore accounts, but that would drive the price up and so new wealth is created. but the whole thing would be a mess though. but there's no data or anything to suggest that 2.8 million would be the outcome. at least no data that i have access to. |
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bunga bunga party? big pools, dirtbikes, sin and more sin, and then go for broke.
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at those rates, we'd have multiple trillionaires holding BTC. that kind of seismic wealth redistribution would really upset the wealthy elite i'd think.
simple math: 1% of 30 trillion is .3 trillion, or 300 billion dollars for the market cap... so isn't that only about 12x present day value of BTC if the market cap is $300 billion? then again, we have to add that amount to our current market cap, but that wouldn't even be enough. there may be something wrong in my math though.. feel free to correct me anyone.
your math seems right to me. yeah, so i don't know where he got that $2.8M number, but it doesn't seem right. |
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100k is even possible given the exponential rate of growth that can happen... not saying that it will or won't happen, but such a small portion of the world has access to bitcoin.. there is such a huge market, and one major player making a move could be what does it. i would consider $1 million in 2014 extremely unlikely, but who knows?
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you should create a poll with age ranges. i'd be interested in learning more about the BTC demographics.. we had another thread with a poll of male to female ratio and it was 9:1, as in every 10 people there are 9 males here.. sample size was over 100 people.
my guess is that it's male, and disproportionate number of people under 30..
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all we need is just for a major retailer to jump in the pool. that'll start the singularity of the next phase (whatever it is). most investments would be speculation, but it would at the same time make bitcoin a legitimate world currency.
What's going to happen is that first exporters are going to start insisting on payment in Bitcoin instead of Dollars. Then the retailers will get onboard by necessity. there is more reason, at least for me, to believe that bitcoin will be accepted by a major retailer.. we're already hearing tons of chatter about ebay/newegg/amazon/tigerdirect accepting BTC. btw, what is the reason why exporters would want to transact with btc vs.the dollar? my angle with retailers, transactions would cost them significantly less than dealing with paypal/visa or whatever the establishment is. if the retailers could recoup 99% of their revenues vs. 98% (with the status quo 3rd parties).. it would be a huge paradigm shift since retailers make such small margins that 1% would be insane. Do you think international money transfers and currency conversions are any cheaper than visa transactions? good point, can't argue with that. i brought the point up to understand more about that position, not to confirm mine. |
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well if you have those many rich people competing with one another, that 2% adoption rate looks mighty conservative, especially when BTC is booming into a difference universe.
What % of those rich people do you think actually own gold? (for the record I have no idea). If we knew that, we might get a better idea for what an appropriate adoption % might be for bitcoin. EDIT: this link estimates 1-2% of americans own gold. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qoj-s-Hhfgsis your assumption that whatever %2 of peoples wealth from gold would be transferred to BTC? i don't think that's enough.. there would be a huge bullish fervor and greed will lead the way. at the top of the food chain, people participate in the rat race to have the most money.. "just because they can." at some point when you have that much money, your assets are just like toys and you want to have the biggest one in town. |
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all we need is just for a major retailer to jump in the pool. that'll start the singularity of the next phase (whatever it is). most investments would be speculation, but it would at the same time make bitcoin a legitimate world currency.
What's going to happen is that first exporters are going to start insisting on payment in Bitcoin instead of Dollars. Then the retailers will get onboard by necessity. there is more reason, at least for me, to believe that bitcoin will be accepted by a major retailer.. we're already hearing tons of chatter about ebay/newegg/amazon/tigerdirect accepting BTC. btw, what is the reason why exporters would want to transact with btc vs.the dollar? my angle with retailers, transactions would cost them significantly less than dealing with paypal/visa or whatever the establishment is. if the retailers could recoup 99% of their revenues vs. 98% (with the status quo 3rd parties).. it would be a huge paradigm shift since retailers make such small margins that 1% would be insane. |
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How big can the precious numbers market possibly be?
Honest question: Is $10,000 possible in 2014? Who knows. I hope so, but that sort of increase in price isn't healthy if companies are developing things for bitcoin at the same pace. Speculation with no development of infrastructure isn't good for bitcoin. all we need is just for a major retailer to jump in the pool. that'll start the singularity of the next phase (whatever it is). most investments would be speculation, but it would at the same time make bitcoin a legitimate world currency. |
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i love being part of something that can be a possible historic paradigm shift in mankind. the making money part doesn't hurt too much either.
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