Sure feels like we’re back to up only. With leveraged funds entering the mix now I expect a ton of volatility and there are lots of investors who will have reason to pump Bitcoin now. I wish we’d seen a spot ETF first and things like this a year from now, so we’ll have to see how it goes. It seems early for the market to be pumping BTC into a bubble.
I don't think this is the real "up only" bull market pump. This is probably a usual intermediary cycle pump with afterwards corrections. We will probably stay around 25k-35k levels (with some wicks) for the next 1 - 1.5 years. if we are following the 2019 summer pattern you are likely correct. but we could be in the 2016 pattern and could be headed to very high numbers. I would guess you are 60-40 shot with your low guess I'm a Newbie and I probably don't understand, but... I has been checking all the charts including my Calendar... And I's almost certain, 99.9%, we're following the 2023 pattern!!! Bank on it! well if that is the case how about 103 in 23? BRO! I think you forgot the k. I dropped the k from 103k because I dropped the 20 from 2023 so 103 in23 is double nicknames. |
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Sure feels like we’re back to up only. With leveraged funds entering the mix now I expect a ton of volatility and there are lots of investors who will have reason to pump Bitcoin now. I wish we’d seen a spot ETF first and things like this a year from now, so we’ll have to see how it goes. It seems early for the market to be pumping BTC into a bubble.
I don't think this is the real "up only" bull market pump. This is probably a usual intermediary cycle pump with afterwards corrections. We will probably stay around 25k-35k levels (with some wicks) for the next 1 - 1.5 years. if we are following the 2019 summer pattern you are likely correct. but we could be in the 2016 pattern and could be headed to very high numbers. I would guess you are 60-40 shot with your low guess I'm a Newbie and I probably don't understand, but... I has been checking all the charts including my Calendar... And I's almost certain, 99.9%, we're following the 2023 pattern!!! Bank on it! well if that is the case how about 103 in 23? |
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Is that what the mod interface looks like? Interesting stats in the screenshot - Don't see the red "banned" text when I click the user. Nah, it's not mod interface. Nutildah is using Bpip.org extension that's why his interface is like that, if you want yours to look like that all you have to do is install the extension. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5224821.0thank you kind of on topic below as mining is my version of buy and hold. We recently expanded the mine. some mining news below a quote of my post in my difficulty thread. a move from 26k to 30k and a diff drop of 2% is a very nice income boost for us. I do miss the good old days of running a mining farm! I am glad you are enjoying it! Keep it going as long as you can mate! Would love to see some photos of the mine (without breaking OpSec...) Last weekend, I threw away some custom made hotside/coldside housing for my S9, spent hours designing and engineering them for sound and heat control. There are some photos of 1 room using 150kwatts and 50 or so miners. mostly s19s and m50s https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5454122.0we have another room. which I don't have photos So 150 k-watts are about 510,000 btus of heat. My home furnace is 100,000 btus of heat so this is like running 5 home furnaces 24/7/365 heat is a bitch although NJ,USA has been good so far this year. |
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@philipma1957 any news? How are the Octotank? Loudness, Cooling?
zip no gear no part refund for the delay . pretty much a bust. |
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Sure feels like we’re back to up only. With leveraged funds entering the mix now I expect a ton of volatility and there are lots of investors who will have reason to pump Bitcoin now. I wish we’d seen a spot ETF first and things like this a year from now, so we’ll have to see how it goes. It seems early for the market to be pumping BTC into a bubble.
I don't think this is the real "up only" bull market pump. This is probably a usual intermediary cycle pump with afterwards corrections. We will probably stay around 25k-35k levels (with some wicks) for the next 1 - 1.5 years. if we are following the 2019 summer pattern you are likely correct. but we could be in the 2016 pattern and could be headed to very high numbers. I would guess you are 60-40 shot with your low guess |
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........
Let's enjoy the "spoils" of a much appreciated strong bull run.
Agreed!.. Lets enjoy the spoils! While this run off the bottom has indeed been impressive, I'm not yet counting my eggs. It feels like the newcomers in the market don't really understand the problems that Bitcoin faces and are instead looking to pump themselves to riches and bonuses. This will ultimately lead to the failure of Bitcoin. However, that is a long ways from where we are currently, so for now all you can really do is enjoy the ride and wait until a proper exit point when BTC has reached new all time highs. That's when I'll enjoy the spoils. Right now we are still less than half of the way to the recent high, so I'm not excited yet. I'll start becoming excited when we pass $50K and the FOMO begins anew. Once we get over 40k people will fomo especially if we get to 40k by 4th of July |
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at 10000 btc for 2 pizzas who cares if they lose a btc.
at 2000 pizzas a btc most every one cares if they lose a btc.
But I still say that frozen coins will be recirculated.
ie 50 years no movement by by coins and back to the rewards.
or 75 or 100. what ever. it will happen
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Is that what the mod interface looks like? Interesting stats in the screenshot - Don't see the red "banned" text when I click the user. Nah, it's not mod interface. Nutildah is using Bpip.org extension that's why his interface is like that, if you want yours to look like that all you have to do is install the extension. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5224821.0thank you kind of on topic below as mining is my version of buy and hold. We recently expanded the mine. some mining news below a quote of my post in my difficulty thread. a move from 26k to 30k and a diff drop of 2% is a very nice income boost for us. |
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I'm starting to get the fear $30k is not going to hold
 Nonsense. We came here to find the American Dream. Now that we're right in the vortex, you wanna quit? this looks okay maybe we do a nice green candle while I sleep. 31k here we come.  |
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O/T.
Anyone been watching the black mirror series?
Just caught up on season 6.
This sort of stuff is right up my street.
Love it.
First episode of season 6 even has Selma Hayak in it!
Yeah, it was great not sure why got cancelled. Everything I like gets cancelled and pure unadulterated garbage gets put in its place. It's not cancelled, what you talking about? It was picked up by Netflix after Channel 4 ditched it in favour for all the crap they usually show years ago. It's relatively successful from what I've seen so I'm sure they will continue with a season 7. They're just very slow in making it all the time as Charlie Brooker writes almost all the stories. Season 6 is ok. Some of it is meh, some of it is pretty good. The photographer episode was far too short and jumped around too much at the start. I fail to see the reason for the 5 minute Czech Republic setting. The Loch Henry episode felt incomplete and not really Black Mirror material. Some strange choices at times. The Demon '79 episode is my favourite (still a few things could have been better but almost really great). I'd like to see more of that type of stuff (a specific time setting - it had excellent music/song choices that helped to create the believable atmosphere). It's definitely not as good as the likes of Twilight Zone used to be (the original series). But definitely a better than average watch I would say. Okay I guess I will check it out. I just finish 9 seasons of the Flash. Mostly watched while pedaling on my indoor bike over the last 3 months. |
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For how long will one have to wait to see new Bitcoin asic miners get released into the market? Four years or more? I am curious because all the available Asic miners are already getting older and less profitable, how long does it takes for Asic companies to build the latest Bitcoin Asic miners with higher Hashrate?
Also, why are new projects not using the Bitcoin mining algorithm? I feel I am missing something in this area, is the Bitcoin sha-256 not suitable for newer proof of work projects or this is something that the project's developers have to choose themselves? Like are they avoiding sha-256 for a reason?
Bitmain is the leader of this ASIC market. Why would they release new models before the halving if competitors don't have better ASICs? After the Halving, the profit will decrease, and before the halving, an announcement and pre-order for new ASICs should appear. Many people simply do not understand mining economics. Many variables to profit. New mining gear at better efficiency is but one. If the s21 did 18 watts vs the 23 the xp does and costs 2x the price of an xp only borderline miners would need to upgrade to it. Ie maybe a 9 cent guy wants a 6500 dollar s21 18 watts and a 7 cent guy wants a 3700 dollar s19 xp. 23 watts and a 3 cent guy wants a 1400 dollar s19j pro. 29 watts |
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.... I made out bigly on that Binance flash pump.
My 10 doggie doo coins multiplied 10x. I immediately filled out appropriate paperwork to have them cashed out and have the evil fiat deposited in my criminal bankster account.
Yes, I kyc'ed myself and now my life is ruined, but I think it was well worth the effort.
After all, I got a free six pack out of the deal.
Now I gotta work on making sure those scamming bastard Ledger folks don't make off with all my remaining riches of various other airdropped shitcoins and the like.
<BATSLAPPENING>
Oh gawd...  I did a quick search and did not find .. I only found this: https://www.binance.us/spot-trade/doge_usdtso I am not sure what you are talking about. I saw that DGB did more than a 10x.. https://www.binance.us/spot-trade/dgb_usdtFuck shitcoins... While we are at it... fuck ledger as well... get yourself some other device.. at least for your bitcoin.. and if you want to hold shitcoins on ledger, then whatever, do what you like... ..... Oh c'mon bro!... after 8 plus years of my silliness on this thread and you are still taking me seriously when I post crap like that? Its called satirehe's a literal bot. He just posted a long rebuttal of me accusing him of not being prepared for uppity. |
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only a day left high share was 96b a far cry from 53t hoping to get a bigger share. |
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I found this story fascinating: Apparently, there was a 'bug" (or rather technically undefined area) in the original bitcoin code that would produce ANOTHER 21 mil btc starting in the year 256 from the get-go. The "bug" was eradicated in BIP-42, which was done post-Satoshi. Without BIP-42, rewards of 50BTC would restart in 256 years, then halvings would continue again (from 50btc/reward to down). A bit of 'conspiracy' theory on my side, but how do we know that this was not the Satoshi's intent? I keep reading about 4 mil 'lost" already in just 14 years. What if Satoshi surmised that this loss in 256 years (with issuance stopping by year 2140) would bring available bitcoin numbers too low and actually designed the "bug" to revitalize bitcoin about a century after. Interesting, but would not affect things in our lifespan, perhaps. See the discussion of BIP-42 here: https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/4r878s/in_case_you_missed_it_two_years_ago_bip_42_is/You have a relatively creative imagination, yet what you are describing could not have been Satoshi's intent. It does not make any sense to start the issuing of blockrewards over again at 50 coins per ever 10 minutes... that would really fuck up incentives and overall value... so that's a bug.. not a "hidden - true intention" of satoshi. Perhaps it was not his intent, albeit we would never know, I assume, but, then, how to deal with bitcoin "evaporation"? We, as a humanity, seem to have lost about 20% of ALL bitcoins that would ever be in a short 14 years. I know that people dismiss it and say that the rest are just getting more valuable. True, but only in a short time. However, think about it long term: a complete loss is inevitable within relatively short historical time frames. So far, we were losing btc at a 1.36% 0.286% (of the total supply) a year. With the same rate of loss going forward, it would be 59.5 350 years until all btc is lost. If the loss would decrease by a factor of 10, then it is 595 3500 years. I don't have any problem with yor starting out by saying that maybe 20% of the Bitcoin have been lost or that maybe the loss rate is more than 1% per year, but even if we go by that math, losing 1% per year does not mean that the bitcoin supply is going to zero. you must not know maths. You can continue to lose 1% per year and the number will never go to zero.. it just gets smaller and smaller and smaller, but it does not go to zero... even if we were to assume 1.5% instead of 1% per year. In other words, the whole world economy could run on 1 BTC. or 1 Satoshi. .. just divide the units in order to allow it to be more liquid (able to be spread out).. yes we might have to go to sub-satoshis, so what does that mean? Sucks to be a hodler? I think not. Bitcoin is not broken due to its fixed and even shrinking supply... so there is no reason to fix it, and there would have been no reason for satoshi to put in such a dumb, illogical and inconsistent fix that started to issue more bitcoin supply, even though no coiners and low coiners frequently whine about such issues - partly based on their having had not sufficiently/adequately stacked up sats at earlier dates (and lower prices). I find it amusing that the original code of Satoshi had in it a "revitalization" of bitcoin by a new issuance cycle after 256 years.
As 256 is < than 350 (my original number), but > than 59.5 there might would still be some non-zero btc remain when the new "cycle' would supposedly start, according to the original code, therefore, bitcoin never 'evaporates' fully and instead, revitalizes. If the rate of loss remains at 1.36% a year, all bitcoin evaporates before even the original Satoshi's solution (or omission/caveat) can work.
This is so dumb that I am not even going to talk about it.  There could be another solution (but I like Satoshi's better):
1. Change to the address system so everybody has to send their btc every, say, 50 100 years.
2. From that, surmise the actual "losses" and make a small random seepage of new btc, so total number never exceeds 21 mil. Not sure how to do it in code.
Still presuming that bitcoin's fix supply - and shrinking supply is a problem. TL;DR All bitcoin will eventually "evaporate" according to the current code and historical human behavior.
Not true. You have bad maths... perhaps bad sciences, too?BIP-42 might have been detrimental to the future (hundreds of years from now).
What an imagination you have (a good thing?) EDIT: the math is even worse: 1.36% loss a year, see correction. We would need to know the average loss per year pretty soon, maybe in the next couple of decades.
Not as urgent of a problem as you are making it out to be. Maybe you and Philip need to team up? Remember that Philip thinks that the mining reward crises is coming within the next few decades, too... perhaps in the 2056 time frame.. so surely bitcoin is broken, right? Never said BTC was broken. But they will need to adjust fee system faster than many think. |
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A lot depends on what they want to do with the miner.
IE super efficient at a higher cost might work.
I have picked up a special controller with special firmware which allows the s19 xp to do 19
watts and 100th.
So if you could build a spooner ruler to do 15 watts it could sell.
I would like to see an efficiency war for builders.
Spondollies lost against bitmain with a price war back around 2015 or 2016
but if they did an efficiency war maybe it could do okay as a niche product.
ie they would keep the 8 cent power guy alive
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...I don't claim to know...
If you ever do the math it would be an interesting read.  Are you trying to cause me to do work?  I will probably go through it a bit more thoroughly at some point --- I am still kind of shocked that it happened.. and still making little adjustments here and there to account for having that extra money (windfall).. .. Ok... I cannot resist doing a little something right now.. .so here's another ballpark quickie assessment: If the totality of the amount of my BTC that I had on that exchange was ONLY in the 2%-ish territory of my BTC portfolio, there is ONLY so much that I could have had profited from even crazy-ass price moves, yet those sell orders filled all the way up the line from $29.5k-ish to $129.5k-ish (in varying increments..and even varying amounts) to then end causing almost all of the BTC that I had on that exchange to sell (that's because I had already decided awhile back to mostly remove from exchanges the excessive BTC that I was not putting into sell orders or at least contemplating that I would put such BTC into a sell order in the near future). Therefore, when the BTC price went shooting up to $138k on that I exchange I ended up selling almost all (minus some slivers of coin) of the coin that I then had on that exchange, and so when I bought back around $28.8k-ish, I more than doubled the coins (something like a 1.5x increase in the value that I held on that exchange, but I did not use all the money yet to buy back BTC with it.. So far, I just bought back the BTC that I had sold plus an additional 30%-ish). Still since the total amount that I held there was ONLY 2%-ish of my total BTC stash.. so it seems to me that I profited by increasing the value in that account by something in the ballpark of 3%.. which would be a 1.5x increase of the stash on that account.. so it moved from around 2% of my total BTC stash to maybe in the ballpark of 5% of my total stash.. Of course, some of it is still in play because so far it did not get converted to BTC, and even though currently we see a lot of seeming FOMO going on right now, I have no reason to FOMO because I have plenty of BTC, and I had plenty of BTC prior to this incident - yet who is going to refuse receiving some freebies? Ok.. you tricked me into saying most of what I might be able to say right now.. even though I do sometimes create charts for myself regarding various statuses of where my BTC/fiat holdings (or even other investments) might stand (especially if decently sized changes have occurred in recent times), so sometimes when I create those new assessment charts, I will thereafter become motivated to tweak aspects of my investment portfolio or even my investment or my consumption strategies... not everything needs to be investment, to the extent that hookers, lambos and blow might be considered as investments rather than arguably maniacal consumption. So you failed to properly prepare for uppity. only 2% on the exchange vs 5% sad so sad. I have 6% of my btc on coinbase set in ladder sales. live and learn JJG  |
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Why is money at hand difficult to hold? I usually find it difficult to keep track of money anytime I have cash at hand, I make plans to hold money, but It never stays because something always demands the money, it is even so bad now that money kept in my account is also now being affected due to expenses. This is not something that happens to only me, I know that because of how money can easily be spent, many people now decide to avoid having cash, avoid taking ATM cards from their banks and also avoid activating USSD or internet banking, but is that really a long term solution? I blame myself a lot for spending so much and being irresponsible with money, but in your opinion, do you think that the soceity is contributing to the high and many expenses making money not to stay or is it just a bad habit I have?
Most likely both society and yourself. |
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Buddy I will be going to bed early tonight wake me up to 31k in 10 hours please. |
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