In my understanding, Quantum computer might not be suitable to do general purpose computing but it is very suitable to solve one specific problem, that's exactly what bitcoin mining requires, to find a correct nonce that match certain criteria Move the hashing function in ASICs into a Quantum computer and you will reduce the hash time for several magnitudes (And increase the difficulty to same degree  ) There will be some companies provide ASIC to Quantum chips conversion in future, and I don't think there will be much difference, the functional design is the same, and the underlying implementation is invisible In principle, the first Quantum miner will immediately command 99.99% of the network hashing power, this is very dangerous so better we have several loyal bitcoin hardware companies start to deploy those miners at the same time |
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Pre-order Quavalon mining rig that do 1PH/s on USB power  It's time to collect interests for a Quantum mining rig project |
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I want to pre-order USB powered Quavalon mining rig that do 1PH/s  |
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After BFL mass shipped and other ASIC devices hit the market, the amount of ASIC devices will easily bypass 36000 and averagely each device could only make less than 0.1 bitcoin per day. We are going to see some crazy weeks of difficulty skyrocketing, while at the same time the bitcoin price stay little changed
That kind of fast rising difficulty will change the projection for ASIC device investors. Although 0.1 bitcoin are still more than enough to pay the electricity, the initial invesment of ASICs are huge, it might take forever to ROI if difficulty rise continuously, so at certain point, there will be a huge wave of ASIC devices sell off (in exchange for bitcoin) and less new ASIC devices can be sold
Then some people will realize that long term wise the best choice is always buy bitcoin directly, that will give bitcoin some further buying support and even improve the outlook for ASIC miners
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Do you have AC? My avalon running temp is 47
No, just added enough thermal compound for each chip, and added an external blow fan to cool the bottom plate |
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very nice! Question for Goxed, re: "Fans seem to run at 100% regardless of temperature." Do you have any indication of what would likely happen if (eventually when) a fan fails? will the device turn off before it fries itself? The "regardless of temperature" part makes me wonder/worry that some kind of built-in failsafe might have been disabled in order to run at these speeds... Still freakin' awesome  worst case, if you were really paranoid, you could replace the fans every 3 months or so much like a preventative maintenance schedule You can have several fans to reduce the risk I added 2 exhaust fans and one external turbo blow fan towards the bottom of the box, if one of the internal fan fails, the external fan could still cool the bottom plate to avoid overheating. But I think those 38mm thick server grade fans are designed to last for years of continuous operation |
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Sat Jun 22 17:30:16 CEST 2013 [Elapsed] => 1704 [frequency] => 350 [fan1] => 1080 [fan2] => 2040 [fan3] => 2040 [temp1] => 22 [temp2] => -1 [temp3] => 43 [temp_max] => 44 [Accepted] => 1047 [Rejected] => 9 [Hardware Errors] => 474 [MHS av] => 82706.52 [MHS 5s] => 90893.27 Seems the temperature is not affected too much due to my external blow fan, while power draw increased to 725W, I guess con's power meter maybe have some error |
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root@OpenWrt:~# ./s
Sat Jun 22 16:27:16 CEST 2013
[Elapsed] => 6349
[frequency] => 325
[fan1] => 1080
[fan2] => 2040
[fan3] => 2160
[temp1] => 23
[temp2] => -1
[temp3] => 43
[temp_max] => 43
[MHS av] => 77311.43
[MHS 5s] => 84348.02
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Mine is a batch 2 running at 240V for what it's worth, and it's a lot cooler here, being winter. Not sure which if any of the above are responsible for it, but it sounds like mine draws more power at regular speeds but less when overclocked compared to others' here?
Maybe batch 2 have different chips than batch 1? Just from pure mathematical point of view it is strange that 17% of hash rate increase resulted only 2% of increased power usage I'm testing with 325, it draws 670W, seems reasonable By the way, I just restarted my Avalon which has been run stable for more than 1 month with 0225 firmware. Although cgminer restarted from time to time, it never hangs, means I could go for long holiday without worrying about it. But last time after upgrading to 0419 firmware I got hard hang which must be power cycled and if not discovered quickly, could put the machine in danger due to high heat and low fan speed. So I'm still not very confident that the latest firmware solved this hard hang issue. I think it is not cgminer related but rather some FPGA issues |
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Ive seen your recondition before and did not ask, is this how it is supposed to be? What thermal paste you recommend?
Im used to see the heatsink on top of the chip, so, yes this looks strange to me
I just put a drop of MX4 on each chip area and later even some under VRM area, but there are 240 chips thus lots of work! The result is reduced temp of 3c degree. With some thermal compound between heatsinks and bottom plate, adding an external fan blowing at bottom plate will reduce another 3 degree. The most important is that now I'm sure each chip is correctly cooled But I don't understand why someone claims 890 W while con claims only 605 W at 350Mhz ??  |
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Just a reminder about heat I have reconditioned all the heat sinks on Avalon modules, most of the chips have no thermal compound contact with heatsink. Unless you also did the recondition and added thermal compound between chips and heatsinks, you might get overheat for the chips (The added heat from overclock are not transferred to heatsink quickly enough) Running all the fan at 100% might help though Good to know that Avalon can be run at 350 Mhz! But I will skip the overclock for now, it's summer here  |
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When gold is used as currency, money issurance is privatized. If lots of people lost their job and the economy went into recession, isn't it a natural choice for those jobless people to dig out more gold? Is that the reason that recessions in gold standard are all shortlived? In a recession, everywhere is short of money, so demand for products/services is down but the demand for money is up. This means, part of the labor force should be shifted to gold production to increase the money supply, and this will also solve the jobless problem However, if more than enough people are digging out gold, then there will be a shortage of real products/services, so that more production is needed in those area, and the gold value will drop, so some of the gold miners will move back to produce real products/services, thus rebalance the gold value The question is, will this kind of system automatically balance itself so that everyone either produce real products or money, and always reach full employment? Is it still possible that both money creation and real goods production don't need more workers? I think the key here is that money production should have the lowest barrier of entry and any one without any training can do it, but it is a full time work, once you are doing money production you can not do anything else. In such a way, it can effectively absorb the excessive amount of labor force no matter which branch they were coming from. At the same time the return should be as low as possible for each worker so that unless they are running out of other options they will not be interested in creating money So, if you could not find any job after graduate, you can start make a living by creating money, but when you advanced in your career, you might move to making real products since that will make you more money  |
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Once the US pops I predict one of two scenarios;
1. The US crash brings the world into a global depression much like the great depression of last century, or
2. The US crashes to whcih China, Russia and OPEC switch from Petro/US to Petro/Gold. This puts US into a long term sprialling depression, Europe goes into a 3 year recession and Asia + Russia slow but hold firm.
In both scenarios, enough populance move some wealth out of their home nation through the BTC pathway which pushes BTC prices up exponentially for the next 3~5 years.
Sure, there are plenty of reasons this might happen in a financial turmoil, normally you can't survive by your own even if you owned lots of gold during a bad time, but bitcoin could prevent the current system from collapsing, that's the most amazing part |
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What did we all do to deserve this? Nothing.
Actually, it's those who keep voting for the idiots that have been elected to political office who are ultimately responsible for what lies ahead. It does not matter who you elect, always will end up like this, maybe some entropy related phenomenon |
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My experience is that better work with regulators, the attitude is much more important, if you are cooperative but technically uncapable of helping them, they will not bother. I think technically they can not regulate bitcoin and even if they did succeed, a fork will appear. Just showing that you are not hostile to them is enough
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Don't worry, bitcoin come to rescue  |
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It is probably more like: If he thinks " what he need is produced by someone else" and he cant afford to buy it because 1) he can't find a job, or 2) isn't willing to work for $20 per day. He needs to: A) adjust his needs, B) work to fulfill his needs. C) both
A little bit off-topic now, this has nothing to do with money supply Suppose that one day all the work can be done by robots, and it takes only two or three companies to manufacture those robots, then rest of the people will have no work thus no income So an increase in productivity always cause less and less demand for labor and it is also bad for the robot producer, since they will now face a society with less and less purchasing power Keynes noticed the drop in demand but he did not focus on the reason behind it (very uneven distribution of productivity), so he tried to stimulate the investment/spending through a lower interest rate, affecting all the producers the same way). That could give some stimulus, but did not really solve the root of the problem As Austrian economists' view, this uneven distribution of productivity has to be corrected by the market itself, just like your solution "the monopolies have to give way to the workers and allow for a grass roots re-emergence of entrepreneurship. And allow prices to plummet so workers can afford the products they produce". But I just don't see how those robot companies would easily give up their position. And even worse, maybe they are already extremely efficient and barely brake even, if you let them down and replace them with many unefficient small enterprises, the whole society's productivity will step back many years, you just reset the whole game to the beginning and lost every progress And I don't think bitcoin could give much help, bitcoin just provide people with a good way of saving so that they can successfully reduce their debt |
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Now FED just indicated an intention to tighten, we immediately see the price of stock/gold/oil crash, the current economy is purely dependant on the continuously inflated money supply
Another problem is jobless. Last time the big wave of industrialization pushed many people from production to service sector, and now computer and software squeezed people out from service sector again, where should they go?
A rational step is to scale back the production and reduce the working hours, but the huge debt caused by money printing made this impossible
Bitcoin seems the only hope for them, they have to grow this new economy to be able to create more income and jobs
A very scalable model: 50% people are creating money, while 50% of people are doing various kind of production/service (since productivity is too high, 50% of labour force are enough to satisfy all the demand on earth), all have a good income. If the productivity rises even higher, then 80% of people are creating money while only 20% of people are doing production. Since everyone wants money, the demand for money is much higher than any other product/service, so this business should have the largest amount of labor force
But in such a model maybe the supply of money should be constant
At the end of the day we need to eat and enjoy stuff (prosperity), almost all that we enjoy is subjective, and what isn't is biological (natural selection) and some small present is mental illness. It is human nature to eat and enjoy and avoid discomfort (including conflict) the resulting actions of perusing those ends is the economy and analysing the economy reflects how those ends are achieved. Lack of innovation in supply or conversely high demand = conflict or discomfort, and forms of control have historically accelerated or hindered innovation. ( a nice theses for a history paper.) There is no drought we have become the most deluded animals on the planet and we have derived ways to eliminate conflict through force but most impressive is through innovation. The idea of managing the economy may have been a valid one when demand outstripped supply but the whole idea of managing anything implies that someone or some group (the powers that be) has experience in what should and shouldn't be done to maximise prosperity. I relate to your approach and conclusion, but I think the 50/50 ratio is fare worse. I think technology as employed today requires about 11% of the work force to provide 90%+ of the needs of society, and the other 89% that are contributing (working) are just managing the system in a parasitic manner. If I was an economics university professor I'd have my class modeling some cool stuff some ideas for another thesis. The powers that be fear the undisciplined mind, and prefer to manage needs, we hold many memes that affect our very evolution and have allowed a parasitic existence to metastasize. The solution isn't more money. In your model where you suggest the supply of money be constant is correct, it has been and the results are showing. Money is just a meme and it only works to eat away at society if the producers believe it to be constant, while the parasites produce more of it. IMO, it's very natural that if there is no demand, one does not need to produce anything. But the problem is, one must produce something in exchange for what he need. If all what he need have been produced by someone else, he just lost the means of make a living So there should be a branch in society, its product has endless demand, this branch can always absorb the excessive labor force That endless demand is money. In principle, the business of creating money should be able to absorb all of the excessive labour force thus keep almost 0 jobless rate constantly. Because, if too many people went to create money, then the supply of other products/services will drop thus increase the profitability and demand for labour in those branches Unfortunately, central banks has taken the job of creating money, and they create money out of nothing, that's the reason they don't providing work to the labour market at all So, the business with the biggest demand, have the least amount of people working, that's a twisted structure of today's society |
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Chart is history, limit your imagination |
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After further thinking, this is a very interesting topic: People might give up those credits instead of sell them cheap
Suppose that there are 2000 chip credits and there are only 1000 chip purchasing order, if every one go to market place and compete to lower the price to sell their chip credit, they will eventually reach a very low price for each chip credit, almost 0. (If you do not accept that price, your chip credit will not get sold and become useless, so from a pure profit point of view, everything above 0 is acceptable)
But, if they reach a consensus automatically that they will not lower the price below a certain threashold, eventually they would still sell 1000 chip credits at a much higher price (for example $12.5, for chip buyers any amount of discount is good), so the average chip selling price would be much higher than previous case, avoid a "race to the bottom" price war
The question then is... would you buy bfl Asic chips when the GH there costs 62.5% of the avalon asic chips that deliver in 2/3 of the time (difficulty) and nearly the miners are ready? I think when bfl didnt catch buyers with 25% discount it will be hard to sell the credits high. That's what I mean, only a few people will purchase the BFL chips, thus the demand is less than supply But anyway, from a long term perspective, BFL chips will still be profitable when ASICminer and Avalon's chip can not make back the electricity cost, as long as it's profitable, the size of the mining farm can be continuously expanded |
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