https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimatorLatest Block: 800052 (10 minutes ago) Current Pace: 96.1084% (1717 / 1786.52 expected, 69.52 behind)Previous Difficulty: 50646206431058.09 Current Difficulty: 53911173001054.59 Next Difficulty: between 51818878540747 and 51863154121899 Next Difficulty Change: between -3.8810% and -3.7989% Previous Retarget: July 11, 2023 at 10:27 PM (+6.4466%) Next Retarget (earliest): Wednesday at 11:46 AM (in 2d 3h 33m 6s) Next Retarget (latest): Wednesday at 12:03 PM (in 2d 3h 51m 4s) Projected Epoch Length: between 14d 13h 18m 21s and 14d 13h 36m 18s Copy stats to clipboard 399 blocks left maybe we get a decent -2 or -3 %
Latest Block: 800362 (10 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 95.4827% (11 / 11.52 expected, 0.52 behind)
Previous Difficulty: 53911173001054.59
Current Difficulty: 52328312063443.84
Next Difficulty: between 51292788382350 and 52316817545918
Next Difficulty Change: between -1.9789% and -0.0220%
Previous Retarget: Today at 8:39 AM (-2.9361%)
Next Retarget (earliest): August 9, 2023 at 8:49 AM (in 13d 22h 15m 10s)
Next Retarget (latest): August 10, 2023 at 12:33 AM (in 14d 13h 58m 33s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 14d 0h 10m 22s and 14d 15h 53m 45s
so -2.9% We had a power outage after a thunderstorm so I am a bit late. Extra hot weather here in NJ. I have been turning gear off a few hours last few days. Once we get past 35c or 95f we get various heating issues. The step down transformer gets too hot 🥵 Voltage drops from 237 to 225 Room hot aisle struggles. The main outdoor pad is a 400kva transformer. It feeds to a 160kva transformer that steps power down to 240volts It is about 1 cubic meter in size it is close to one of the intake fans for the room. So the 9000cfm fans begin feeding in hotter and hotter air yesterday to outside of the transformer got to 38c or 100f The outside temps were only 92f Voltage dropped 10 volts and room began to overheat. I shut off 5 whatsminers about 15000 watts I shut off 1 s19j pro about 3000 watts. transformer cooled down room cooled off. at 2pm gear went off at 9pm gear was put on. I will be doing this for rest of july and all of august. so 7 hours x 40 = 280 hours say 11 or 12 full days of shuting off 600th. about 42 x 12 = 504 usd worth of btc will be lost 😡 |
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Will Fed raise rates in July? BENGALURU, July 19 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to the 5.25%-5.50% range on July 26, according to all 106 economists polled by Reuters, with a majority still saying that will be the last increase of the current tightening cycle. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-last-rate-hike-coming-july-meeting-economists-say-2023-07-19So this chart is either a bart or a stepping stone to 35K .
I am hoping to see 33-35k by Monday Aug 1 |
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Have this thing across on your mind that merit sources and top merit earners are the ones trying out to monopolize signature campaigns on this forum and milking it out as much as they could?
Ex.
New accounts that had been created alone had been flooded out by lots of merits and turns out that they are really that familiar with this forum. Reaching out Senior accounts and even hero member ranking won't really be a problem.
Merit sources are focusing with those accounts or even those top merit rankers in the forum. Merit distribution isn't really that fair and I'm assuming that they are building their own sockpuppets to solo out and milk out signature campaigns that requires accounts that have lots of merit counts.
They do really have the advantage and this what make this system sucks.
Don't use a broad brush. I don't do it. Only some do it.
When making such a big accusation or complaint, it would be great if you showed us examples/proof where merit sources have flooded their "sockpuppet" accounts with merits, and they are now milking the hell out of signature campaigns.
As far as I recall, at the beginning of the merit system, there were a couple of merit sources that abused the positions and got removed.
What I am seeing right now is just an assumption with no single proof.
Becoming a hero or Legendary member is not so hard. Even when you don't try so hard. Just be an active and helpful member in the community, you will get there.
Well I have seen a lot of 3500 merit plus people feeding accounts. So yeah the op is part right. If you do a statistical breakdown you can see it is happening with new members getting a lot of merits to make rank pretty quickly. Members under a year and say 300 posts with 100 or 200 merits would be the sock puppets. I see at least 3 or 4 in the wo thread. Of course he is a newbie and not an OG. wink wink |
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I know that shit-coins suck and they don't hold any value, and at the same time they are useless, but I don't think one should represent them in such a way. It's something called racism because the people who are black are far more worthier then those shit-coins, and I don't think that one should represent a useless coin in that way. I don't really care about those shit-coins, but I really do love and respect black color people. I know your intention was not to hurt the ethnic groups where members have black skin color, but still you should avoid creating such posts. I request you to never represent anything in that way even just for fun because such things can hurt others feelings very badly. That's because BTC Maxies are very similar to racists. If they truly followed Satoshi they would realize some POW coins belong on the table. Anyone that places POS coins with POW as "shitcoins" is missing out on the Basic Satoshi idea of turning power into wealth. This does not mean buy a pow shitcoin . But mining any profitable pow and trading it for btc is fine. edit then hold the BTC |
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Just sell $100 usdt from your USDT balance YOU SHOULD GET ABOUT 76 pounds. Now I assume you have www.coinbase.com account with lots of USDT in it. |
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Thanks for your thoughts. With BRAIINS pool I'm in I might need to move on. This is the worst dry spell I have ever seen with them in the years I have been there. Tonight at 10:30 it will be 48 hours without a hit.
I like the idea of keeping one machine in a Solo Pool and just let the others grind away.
you could try viabtc.com. they pay a guaranteed rate |
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Right buddy 33.3k right around the corner.
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We see so many accounts coming here when BTC goes up a little they started to yell " bull market" " to the moon" and to spam memes about that green dildos ,etc.
Stop with that, we see this movement for like 3 months already, so keep calm and enjoy the ride, or enjoy the Hodl, whatever you like, but stop thinking everytime we go up a little its gonna start a bull market.
We need a solid candle. A move right up and over 33k. Maybe this week on the 26th. |
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If I do that, my hashing rate is running about 850TH/s. Not bad, but its a lottery.
I wish you good luck, but you should know that the chance of you mining a block is very low. The total hash rate is now around 390 Ehash/s. This means that you own around 0.0002% of the total hash rate. Assuming that the total hash rate won't change, you will find 1 block every 8.7 years on average. If you have 850 th and it mines at a profit. You should mine 750th at a profit and mine 100th at the solo pool. Most people think that playing a lot of lottery tickets is a better way to win the lottery. If you play your 750 and grind a profit. you can endlessly play the 100th at solo. 100th out of 380 eh is a small shot to hit a block 850th out of 380 eh is not a great shot to hit a block the false thought is 850 th. vs 100 th is 8.5 times better shot to win you are missing that 380,000,000 th - 100 th is 379,999,900 miners miners against you and 380,000,000 - 850 is 379,999,150 miners against you so while the win chance is 8.5 to 1 better the loss shot is only 379,999,150/379,999,900 less. so you only drop the loss chance by under 0.00000075 |
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Any OG who are like @philipma1957 are incredibly advanced for boomers.
Apart from a few boomers posting here...only 4-6% of people after 64-65 are into bitcoin (I read it somewhere-no source).
I am fine with his diworsification, albeit, disagree that litecoin tech is superior in any sense. Litecoin is a derivative, a copycat..silver to gold, so to speak.
Changing the whole 401K into bitcoin would have been incredible if done 10-11 years ago. I converted only 10% or so of my fiat resources into btc a while back.
Would it been better if I allocated 30-50%..sure it would be, but as Michael Saylor said: "I could have bought bitcoin at $100 when I [MS] first noticed it, but I bought it at $10000, when I needed it". Everyone pretty much buys it when they "need" it, either physically or intellectually.
I also understand the @JJG point about buying (or not buying i-bonds). There were other, much simpler ways to get interest last year, like money market funds, which are liquid, while i-bonds are not.
I think @philipma1957 is diversified (from what I gathered). Yes, maybe buying i-bonds when btc was at the lows of around $16K was ill-advised, but everyone only know it by now, not back then. Besides, Phil is doing the "work" for many of us (including myself) who is not currently mining, but verbalize about bitcoin.
@philipma1957-what is the Th value/power of your mine, if calculated back to just yourself?
Enough of JJG saying I sold at 16 k I sold at 23.6 k in Aug I set up a DCA in Nov thanks to JJG! I set up ladder buys in Late Oct My ladder buys of BTC kicked in last Nov So I did buy BTC at *20.8 k on Nov 4 19.7 k on Nov 8 18.3 k on Nov 8 18.1 k on Nov 8 17.8 K on Nov 9 17.2 k on Nov 9 16.9 k on Nov 9 16.1 k on Nov 9 15.9 k on Nov 9 15.7 k on Nov 9. this was the best price I got. *16.7 k on Nov 11 * 16.6 k on Nov 18 15.9 k on Nov 21 this was a bigger piece * 16.5 k on Nov 25 16.6 k on Nov 27 * 17.0 k on Dec 2 * 17.2k on Dec 9 17.0k on Dec 12 this was a bigger piece *16.9k on dec 16 16.8k on Dec 17 this was a bigger piece 16.7k on Dec 17 this was a bigger piece 16.8k on Dec 17 this was a bigger piece 16.8k on Dec 17 this was even bigger piece 16.4k on Dec 19 this was a bigger piece *16.9k on Dec 23 *16.6k on Dec 30 My sales stopped on Aug 17 last year price was 23.6k and a sale in June for 21.7 k plus seven sales in May at 31k to 38k those BTC sales allowed for the purchases in Nov and Dec. As for value of the mine. It is setup and runs at a profit zero debt on it. JJG simply does not speak that accurately as to what my BTC sales and buys were for last year. Especially the sales. The lowest sale I did was for 21.7k price point |
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https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimatorLatest Block: 800052 (10 minutes ago) Current Pace: 96.1084% (1717 / 1786.52 expected, 69.52 behind)Previous Difficulty: 50646206431058.09 Current Difficulty: 53911173001054.59 Next Difficulty: between 51818878540747 and 51863154121899 Next Difficulty Change: between -3.8810% and -3.7989% Previous Retarget: July 11, 2023 at 10:27 PM (+6.4466%) Next Retarget (earliest): Wednesday at 11:46 AM (in 2d 3h 33m 6s) Next Retarget (latest): Wednesday at 12:03 PM (in 2d 3h 51m 4s) Projected Epoch Length: between 14d 13h 18m 21s and 14d 13h 36m 18s Copy stats to clipboard 399 blocks left maybe we get a decent -2 or -3 % |
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my fear is second layer will not be fixed properly
{snip crap}
when ltc/doge is designed to never vanish.
BTW This is why JJG always attacks me as he knows that long term on paper right now.
LTC/Doge has a better design than BTC.
but beta was said to be better than vhs.
So BTC can still prevail.
I stack more BTC than Doge and LTC.
Fuck Phil you keep spewing this bullshit about your shitcoins, don't you realize by now your the only one that believes that bullshit? Or I am man enough to admit the scaling issues exist and I plan for it. Does it mean I have 60k worth of btc and 60k worth of LTC and 60K worth of Doge no. But I have BTC and LTC and Doge. I stack the three of them via mining. If you want to be 100% BTC and trust that the developers fix the scaling issue cool. If I want to be 80% BTC and 10% LTC and 10% Doge it is equally cool. Plus I will Talk about it here on this thread. At JJG BTW I have 4x BTC compared to the iBonds. I am fine with that. If I have 3 coins stacking a mining farm Some silver stacking A home a 401k with 3 pensions which My wife and I do we are diversified not a big issue. To talk about it not a big deal To mention it on this thread not a big deal. If I could I would sell the 3 pensions as they are all fed gov and I no longer trust the fed gov. but USA fed pensions are not allowed to sell. |
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The reason for my post should be seen in context, and philip has frequently repeated his nonsense that bitcoin is likely going to show broken incentives in around 2050/2060 because the mining rewards are going to be so low that miners are not going to want to mine bitcoin and they will be incentivized to mine POW shitcoins such as litecoin and doggie coin.. and saying dumb shit like that.. so I am reinforcing his dumb ideas through my post. Bitcoin will grow much more in price then. The block reward will be 0.02441406 in 2052. Currently, the miners getting around $187K for a block; who knows what will be the bitcoin price in 2052? Maybe 0.0244 won't be worth $187K. Maybe this is what he is fearing. my fear is second layer will not be fixed properly. if a block is 0.0244 btc and it is worth 244,000 that would mean a coin is 10 million. the smallest fee is about 227 sats. so the smallest you pay for a fee is. $ 227 This means btc will need tweaks to work. I am not going to get into miners growing and growing to protect btc. but if coins are 10 million and say 20.5 million are mined we have a cap of 205 million at ten bucks 2050 million at one hundred bucks 20.500 billion at one thousand 205.00 billion at ten thousand 2.0500 trillion at 100 thousand 20.500 trillion at 1 million 205.00 trillion at 10 million so a you want lots of miners to protect 205 trillion lets say gear does 5 watts in 2056 much like cars and miles per gallon there is a limit to how low watts a miner uses. so if gear does 30 now the same amount of units and power the diff jumps to 320 trillion but no extra value to the entire network’s infrastructure. mining infrastructure must grow to protect the new higher cap. make it stagnant and the value of the cap is poorly protected. so if market cap is 550 billion and grows to 200 trillion by 2052. miner infrastructure of 10 billion should be. 4 trillion 55 to 1 . coin to gear now. 50 to 4 coin to gear in the future. roughly 400 to 1 more infrastructure and 6 to 1 efficient means diff is not 6x it is 2400x right now we burn about 10,000 megawatts an hour. we are not going to scale to 24,000,000 megawatts. just one problem. and if cold fusion works and we have that much power why spend it mining a vanishing coin when ltc/doge is designed to never vanish. BTW This is why JJG always attacks me as he knows that long term on paper right now. LTC/Doge has a better design than BTC. but beta was said to be better than vhs. So BTC can still prevail. I stack more BTC than Doge and LTC. |
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Sadly there is no such thing as "progress towards a block". Only your hashrate from this point onwards counts. Your probability is purely related to what your current hashrate is.
Thank you CK! Appreciate you brother  you have 2 trillion shares difficulty is 53 trillion normal luck means you would hit a block in 53 trillion shares. basically spin a single die six times and normal luck means you get a six in six spins. obviously you could get the six in 1 spin but you could do 20 spins and not get a six. so with solo mining 1 single share could hit a block or 53 trillion shares or in the worse case as many as 530 trillion shares maybe as many as 760 trillion shares. but to go as high as 760 trillion shares would be like spinning a die a few hundred times and not getting a six. doing 2 trillion shares means you did 2/53 of normal luck. So if you hit soon you are way ahead of the game. |
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And now we're having back to earth re-entry! Pace is just crazy, again some large family shutting down voluntarily?
It's probably the heat waves and the overall profitability is pushing the lower-tier miners out of the game, with the current difficulty, even at 7 cents you are going to need S19 or the equivalent to make some profit, so all the 17 series are not making anything unless the power rate is way too cheap, in fact at 7 cents even the S19 make below a dollar a day, depending on what type of cooling and other expenses one might have those could be running at a loss already. this epoch we did not have a miner fallout like oct 2018 to 2019. china forced a big hash relocation in 2021 but it was not the same as the 2018-2019 fall and pause. we are not at the six cent power point which did create the 2018-2019 diff drop and pause. 100 th makes 7 bucks. at 30 watts it burns 75 kwatts add 5 to cool and 80kwatts at 6 cents is 4.80 in power and cooling thats 2.20 a machine . say maintenance bla bla bla = 70 cents So an s19 100th clears 1.50 usd I think this means we grind up 🆙 once the heat passes. What would make things interesting is if we do a 2015-2016 price move. in 2023 to 2024. we would hit a 60k-70k number. this would likely make fomo for gear. say oct-dec 2023 |
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I don't think soo.. Logic is the wrong Telephone to smartphone the journey was full of changes in features, Design, Working models, Prices drop with the introduction of technology, and more these are enough to explain.. But Bitcoin is like Static... No change in Supply, In features, In working protocols, and the Price is not dropping haha its getting higher and higher. Haha i know you didn't mean that , but weird post so a weird view... Even forgot the icons like blackberry, motorola razr... and that smartphone is actually not the pinnacle of technology since we already have folded screens available. That's if you really want to dissect the picture, but it's the idea that counts and I think the author managed to convey it. We really are early. 2009-2023 14 years in I still see huge issues by 2056 but even if I am correct that means 33 years before it has real issues |
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Likely we will go to 0 or +1 by july 25/26
https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimatorLatest Block: 799174 (5 minutes ago) Current Pace: 96.0226% (839 / 873.75 expected, 34.75 behind)Previous Difficulty: 50646206431058.09 Current Difficulty: 53911173001054.59 Next Difficulty: between 51778561845155 and 52486263848230 Next Difficulty Change: between -3.9558% and -2.6431% Previous Retarget: July 11, 2023 at 10:27 PM (+6.4466%) Next Retarget (earliest): July 26, 2023 at 7:38 AM (in 8d 7h 32m 53s) Next Retarget (latest): July 26, 2023 at 12:22 PM (in 8d 12h 17m 31s) Projected Epoch Length: between 14d 9h 10m 25s and 14d 13h 55m 3s Copy stats to clipboard we wobbled a bit lower 59 blocks behind with 683 to go.
Latest Block: 799668 (11 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 95.7406% (1333 / 1392.30 expected, 59.3 behind)
Previous Difficulty: 50646206431058.09
Current Difficulty: 53911173001054.59
Next Difficulty: between 51622177739927 and 51874982020469
Next Difficulty Change: between -4.2459% and -3.7769%
Previous Retarget: July 11, 2023 at 10:27 PM (+6.4466%)
Next Retarget (earliest): Wednesday at 11:41 AM (in 4d 21h 10m 54s)
Next Retarget (latest): Wednesday at 1:24 PM (in 4d 22h 53m 51s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 14d 13h 13m 57s and 14d 14h 56m 53s
the drop makes me think heat and power is holding back a lot of hash. I can see a big hash jump this fall. 60t easy maybe 70t by years end. |
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Nice find. That unit will be very nice the M56s++ Microbt Unveils New Whatsminer Bitcoin Mining Rig With 320 TH/s, Setting New Standard for Hashpower https://news.bitcoin.com/microbt-unveils-new-whatsminer-bitcoin-mining-rig-with-320-th-s-setting-new-standard-for-hashpower/Microbt’s hydro-cooling ASIC mining rig, the M53S++, delivers an unrivaled hashpower output in the industry today. The Whatsminer M53S++ reaches a staggering 320 TH/s — a whole 65 TH/s greater than Bitmain’s Antminer S19 XP Hydro, the previous top BTC miner in terms of hashrate. But I only see 5nm not 3nm in my link. So I am not sure which link is correct. The gear claims to be 22 watts which is a big issue. 22 watts x 320 th immersion m56s++ = 7040 watts which means 8 gauge wires and 40 amp circuit. or maybe 2x 20amp circuits to run it. the air-cooled M50s++ doing 150th at 22 watts is 3300 watts not much of an issue. |
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