I heard this too today. GBTC is off-loading, many were under the impression that this would take a few days. So far, they have only sold around 6%... so still plenty to go. The ETF inflows are overall still positive even when subtracting GBTC selling, but what's more concerning is the ~580K Bitcoin GBTC still holds and that so far the selling has been very conservative, so could obviously become more aggressive.

I read on WO some people thought that "the GBTC sell off is over" a few days ago, whereas in fact it's only just begun. It's the time to be uber cautious right now, with the only hopium that GBTC are selling OTC (ideally directly to the new ETFs) which would reduce the impact on the spot market, but otherwise this is a black swan event waiting to happen if GBTC suddenly decide to pull the trigger. This isn't intended as FUD, even though I can see how it would be interpreted. I'm not saying GBTC are suddenly going to start selling a tonne of Bitcoin (only that it's possible and that they have begun selling, which is simply a reality) and that they have plenty more to sell (which is also a fact). There are no doubt many ways this could (and should be) done without impacting the price of Bitcoin, so let's just hope they follow these procedures.

Either way, this could lead to a great buying opportunity, if GBTC simply continue to conservatively sell around 6% a week, within around 4 months it'd be the perfect time to buy.... once they're finished.

$35k worst case scenario seems very optimistic to me, for me it'd be around $19K for a black swan event, otherwise around $23K where there is the Weekly Ichimoku cloud support. The 200 Day MA is priced $33.3K, so certainly finding support from $35K in the coming weeks (or even months) would be bullish in the immediate term, my main issue is that the level is in a low trade volume (between $31K and $37K). So although finding support from this important MA would clearly be bullish, the likelihood of doing so within a low volume area seems very unlikely to me. It's rare we see support from these areas.

On the Weekly long-term MA support is otherwise firmly around $30K. So even coming back down to this level could still be continuation of a bull trend. It seems many people aren't aware how low the support goes for a continuation of a bull market / recovery. To me the Daily-based support is failing, that of the 50 Day MA as well as cloud support (after 3 months being above), hence zooming out and returning to Weekly support seems completely reasonable. The main issue is that immediate support (that is breaking) and long-term support are very far apart right now, without much in between in my opinion. My best case scenario would be holding support around $38K where there was previous consolidation, and where the 20 Week MA will be in a few weeks, which would signal immediate bullish continuation on longer-term time-frames.

In the meantime, I's be surprised not to see a re-test of the bearish wick between $44K and $48K, which would be routine for Bitcoin prior to a trend change, but ultimately this only confirms how bearish price is if it can't even re-test resistance levels, or otherwise bounce from current support levels. For example, after the initial -10% dump, there is almost zero buying pressure what so ever.

Also think that bearish continuation might not be until next month, once there is a bearish Monthly candle close, to further confirm a trend change on shorter-term time-frames.


Makes sense. I think there is still too much optimism in the market, with most people thinking this is a short-term correction; unaware of the broader implications of breaking support levels that have been in place for the past 3 months. Ie, local top may well be in now. Hence there isn't as much shorting of the market as you might expect despite the -15%+ drop in price. Once the market is over-leveraged short and bearish, then a strong rebound becomes likely, as a reaction from around $38K seems somewhat inevitable. This would then be the setup to liquidate shorts by retesting the highs.

I did think this would happen soon after, from around $42K levels, but it could take another week or two it seems, similar to 2019. Either way, after the most bearish Weekly wick since June 2019 (worse than all of the 2021 bull market), the market will find a lot of sellers re-testing these highs. It's unlike any other bearish candles we've seen in years, ie not often we see such clear-cut bearish signals like this.

Assume you're being sarcastic, but I'll bite. Personally I lost my bullishness once the ETFs launched, followed by the confirmation dump and gravestone doji on the Weekly time-frame that spells out longer-term "downtrend", similar to 2019. Anyway, don't think I'm as bearish as you! Are you still waiting for $1,150, like you said will happen in December 2021, or given up on that yet? No offence but you're TA looks like a failed prediction from 2017 that you're still holding onto, like many others who expected $1K when only $3K arrived. You could just accept that it was wrong and re-evaluate, like claiming this is the lower high that takes us down to $12K or something. Personally I see a return to around $30K, as there is a lack of support between there and $50K, and worst case down to $20K, but have ruled out a return to $1K now ETFs have been launched  

Personally I got to the point of not really believing a recession or otherwise will arrive, unless it actually does. Many bearish analysts were screaming about an impending recession in 2023 that never arrived, and while I'm aware these things can take time to play out, I think it's run it's course of occurring with much probability now that inflation is under control again (it seems). I realise you might not of been referencing a recession directly, but similarly macro-economics looking bad or "going a bit wrong" is again something that can simply occur any day or any week or any year, but rarely actually occurs. Predicting or anticipating these things seems even more difficult imo, the only ones who get it right are those who have been calling for a recession every week or month since 2008. Eventually, they get it right!

However saying all that, I wouldn't be surprised if "something" happened that very temporarily spooks the market in the next few months, as I feel Bitcoin will be very luck to avoid a black swan event leading into the halving (it's my most pessimistic scenario, and doesn't involve a low below $15.5K, but does involve coming close to around $19K). Either way I think it'd be a great buying opportunity, as generally Bitcoin and markets do look strong right now, even if they were to return to near the lows, there has been years worth of consolidation in order to support the price - alas I think making new lows has becoming very unlikely.

Give it a few months and it'll have an impact on price imo, as it's an on-ramp with genuine BTC buying pressure potential, but these things take time, and until then it won't "help" price what so ever. Only complete degens buy into ETFs or related product/stocks on launch, the rest of the crowd sensibly take a "wait and see" type approach, at least until price action is positive instead of negative. Many expected a "god candle" or major pump with this launch, but clearly they forgot that they were dealing with Wall St, who'd much prefer to wait for a 50% drop before investing than buying product launches.

The positive is that the halving is only a few months away, and if history repeats itself, this will likely bring about price stability (even if in a boring sideways manner). This will in turn be positive for the ETFs once price stability is established, and could well encourage considerable demand for such products now they are readily available. I'm potentially more optimistic over the 2024/2025 bull run than that what occurred in 2021, mainly because there is an institutional on-ramp for large scale investment, unlike in 2021. So if Bitcoin is to return to a $1 trillion valuation, and higher, then it'll be based on having products available like ETFs.

I'd argue that in hindsight the upside potential was "capped" predominantly by retail investment and hedge funds, so anything over $1T was unsustainable.

Personally I don't consider recent price action manipulation what so ever, usually this would be when there are large swings in price (up or down) and there is no news or reasoning for it. Whereas in this scenario, price dumped literally 30 minutes after the ETFs launch. Then you look back at all the other Bitcoin-based products and how their launches went; CME, CBOE, Bakkt and ProShares for example - price dumped almost instantly. Most notably too, price pumped up until the days of the launch, but in each scenario the price dumped after as the buying pressure was based on the upcoming launch, not the launch itself.

Many simply got complacent if I had to guess. Just like in 2017 with futures launching, the announcement arrived at $5K, and the general belief or understanding was that price would continue to the upside until the launch date. Sure not many expected $20K to arrive, but otherwise it was accurate that the "buy the rumour sell the news" meant that price would continue upwards until the launch dates.

I don't see anything different with these ETF launches either, sure it's a different product, but the concept remains the same. There was a lot of belief that they would be approved in October, and therefore price increased from $30K to $49K, seemingly unstoppable until the launch date, again much like 2017 product launches, as news continued to suggest approval. Then once launch arrived; price dumped.

Same story different year if you ask me. The "this time it will be different" crowd would do well to note that until things actually occur differently, they probably won't.

I've just never traded by TRY before, like most people I assume, but that's besides the point here.


OK fair I made a mistake, I just checked and you're right, because CMC has got it wrong here. They've listed the wrong PEPE/TRY pair(s) under Pepe Coin, which is actually the reason why price registers has being up by around 50,000%, whereas actually it's only about up around 130% based on BUSD pair. Will update my post to reflect this new information provided. To be honest I was surprised when I thought you made such a massive mistake, hence my reaction, but instead I realise you just provided a lack of relevant information which makes more sense, that fortunately Kalemder explains above.

Here's a question for you though; why did you not bother mentioning that CMC had included the incorrect pairs in their market listings, given this was a reference in the OP's topic? Were you unaware of this obvious error, or did you simply think it was insigificant? As the user clearly could have made an honest mistake here, thinking their coin is up 60x, instead of realising that CMC had made a couple of enormous errors. Either way, now the user should be aware, so should modify their topic accordingly. Until then, the feedback seems appropriate, given it's effectively false advertising, even if done so inadvertently.


That's cute. Don't forget to include that in your diary  

Simply incorrect, please check before making these types of accusations in the future. The pair is clearly PEPE/TRY (not ETH), whatever the f TRY is.
More importantly, the PEPE/TRY pair on BtcTurk is in fact the Pepe Coin ($PEPE) the user is trying to sell, see: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/pepe-coin-bsc2/#Markets
Pepe ($PEPE) is otherwise not available on that exchange, as per: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/pepe/#Markets


"Likely not traded". Please just check next time. It clearly is, as I already referenced. No offence intended here, but we don't need a dose of misinformation posted into this thread.

So nothing deceptive then. As for the link, it has a typo or two in it. The link should include /currencies/ not /curregency/, somewhat obviously.
The actually coin link is correct however as you pointed out: /pepe-coin-bsc2/
So overall, unless we are tagging users for typos, there is nothing deceptive here I can see... just a broken link, but could (and should) be easily clarified with the contract address that was provided.

Reply scrubbed due to new information: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5481516.msg63498323#msg63498323

User's coin is up 6,000% this week and he/she wants to sell. Not sure what the issue is here. Apart from maybe a warning on the thread not to FOMO into coins that are already up 60x in a week.

Edit: Coin is not up 60x, CMC has listed wrong market pairs

There's otherwise literally dozens of Pepe coins on a variety of networks. The most popular (#108) doesn't own the copyrights to the image/logo, nor do any of the others, so the "original" clearly doesn't get to claim exclusive rights over the brand name or imagery making copycats as fair game as the existence of the original. Pretty sure the original isn't even the first coin named Pepe to be launched anyway, so it's all irrelevant.

The user provided the verifiable contract, even if the CMC link doesn't work, so it doesn't look like they were trying to scam another user into buying what they thought was the "main" Pepe coin.

Well no, inflation won't do "whatever". It will drop in half every 4 years as Bitcoin is programmed to do, that is very much a constant among the speculation. I don't doubt that there will be a new ATH after the halving this year, my point was that this isn't a guarantee and there are arguments that this dynamic of post-halving ATH won't last forever, whether it takes 10 or 100 years to no longer be relevant. For example, when inflation is only 0.2%, then drops to 0.1%, is that still going to be significant? To me, it seems a lot less significant than dropping from the current 1.69% to 0.84%.

Yes, this as well. Analysts weren't just pulling random probabilities out of a hat, it was based on everything that led up to the announcement date, as well as historically previous ETF applications etc.


Also very true I believe. Personally I had planned to sell the announcement or launch, as long as price was above $48K which was my target throughout 2023. My target hadn't been reached after the announcement, so had to wait until the launch, and it seems like I wasn't the only one either. Speculators had been planning to sell the launch for many months imo for a variety of different reasons. Most notably, because every other Bitcoin-product related launch (ie CME, CBOE, Bakkt and ProShares) has followed with a considerable dump in price, especially when they arrive at a relative peak in the market.

It's easy to think "this time will be different", but usually it's best to wait until a scenario actually plays out differently, before assuming the likelihood of breaking a trend... similar to halving & 4 year cycles etc.

For this answer generally of "who is selling" then HODL waves on-chain data is quite useful here, at least for what type of holders are selling. When it comes to long-term sellers, then the 2-3y appear mainly responsible, as they begun moving coins again in December last year, dropping from 16% to 14% of holders (holding 400K less BTC). Notably most of them have been holding since 2022, but now these holders are almost exclusively 2021 buyers (+ two weeks of 2022), so they are taking very late profits or otherwise getting out of previously losing positions. Last year it was 1-2y holders, so it has been the 2021 buyers since 2022 basically.

As a reminder, over 70% of holders have been holding for more than 1 year. While this is good for the stability of Bitcoin, it does also mean there is a lot of supply that could become available in the near future, usually once the bull market begins. There has otherwise been an increase in Bitcoin being available on exchanges since late December last year, ie an extra 100K BTC, the highest amount since mid 2023, which is usually attributed to selling pressure, so there is that as well. In the current on-chain climate, only coins older than 3 years are really considered "locked up" right now.

Has nothing to do with CEX fractional BTC trading or whatever, what's occurring is all transparently documented on-chain as referenced.

Higher than that I think? Probably more like 90-95%. The only thing I'd be cautious of is if he's incorrectly called a top in Bitcoin over 10/20 times in 2023... you could argue he's "due" a correct prediction.

(I'm well aware that's not how statistics work, as the odds would still remain 5-10% being correct, but I would also never trust 90-95% accurate once over 10/20 predictions have been correct...)

Either way, just bare in mind that while Cramer is well worth counter-trading, similar to Peter Schiff and others, even broken clocks are right twice a day.

I reminds me of Il Capo, he's been talking about $12K since 2022, and been consistently wrong since then (throughout 2023). Now he's suggesting a local top and return to $30K, and while many are continuing to laugh at him, as he's been consistently wrong (100% of the time) since 2023, I wouldn't be surprised if he *finally* get's a prediction right simply based on dumb luck.

If not obvious, when speculators consistently call local tops in the market every week, they'll eventually be right once the bull trend is over. Then they obviously brag about calling the top correctly 

Just for some context here; analysts (from Bloomberg I believe) already predicted that the ETFs would be approved with 90-95% certainty, there was even betting odds based on the decision as far as I understand.  So I don't think this has anything to do with "insiders" who "knew" that the SEC were going to approve the ETFs, but simply what the market was generally expecting to happen that then occurred.

I also don't think this was about the days leading up to the approvals. Price had already pumped from $30K to $48K based on speculating that ETFs would be approved. I think what's more likely is that speculators bought Bitcoin up to $47K prior to the announcement, expecting higher prices. As soon as the launch occurred and price dropped, many started selling to avoid losses. Likely a lot of leverage involved etc...

Overall, the subject title of this thread would have better read "BitcoinETF approval will possibly cause much bigger dump than most people expect". Personally I only remain disappointed to see how many veteran Bitcoiners fell for this "god candle" and "moonshot" pump scenario. Sure I thought a 20% pump remained possible, but overall I always suspected price would initially dump rather than pump.

The reality is, no one really knows. The effects of the halving are expected to have less an effect on the market overall, as the inflation continues to drop in half. However this somewhat overlooks the fact that increased usage in Bitcoin (which is also projected) is already started to cause transaction fees for miners to outperform block rewards, so potentially the inverse could also be true to some degree (or balance out at least). Even though transaction fees aren't inflation, the miner rewards are still largely attributed to the overall selling pressure / supply dynamics, as miners have to sell coins to cover costs.

The only theory that is 100% correct, is that a new ATH has always occurred after the halving, which will remain true until this is no longer the case

That's because an "obvious bullrun" hasn't been achieved by getting an ETF approved?! At least based on current price action since ETF launch, price has only dumped with high volume.

DooMAD is accurate with the analysis provided. Too many people expected a "moonshot" to new ATHs after the ETFs launched, but instead price dumped and it became a "buy the rumour sell the news event", that enough people had been predicting and anticipating for months now, since the hype began once price broke above $30K. Personally, I'd also be surprised to see any other result here than what happened.

Unfortunately too many speculated that the market was in a full-blown bull run, with new ATHs incoming, whereas in fact, it's currently achieved a full-blown dead cat bounce. Above $48.5K I'll happily change my opinion of that fact, but until then, price/market has simply done what was expected of it - to retrace 61.8% of the the price from ATH to recent lows, just like in 2016 and 2019.

This is not unsurprising nor unexpected, but simply a routine at this point. The only question remaining is whether there is a severe correction or consolidation sideways imo.

Indeed, I've always believed in DCA up to and over the halving, it usually get's a better price than averaging into the bear market from ATH. This then covers you in case there is consolidation between say $35K and $45K for the next 6 months, as opposed to a dip to $25K to $30K. Either way, 6 months prior to and after the havling are usually great times for dollar cost averaging.


Most people also thought this in 2020 (myself included), prior to a 60% correction. 2016 was very similar, people thought the bull market had already begun and the price was "UP ONLY", but instead there was a -40% correction and 6 months of consolidation before moving higher. NEVER be surprised to see such an aggressive dip when not in a "full-blown" bull market. Until $48.5K is reclaimed and passed on long-term time-frames, this move (from $15.5K to $49K) will forever be a dead cat bounce, just like in 2019 as well as 2016, as it's the expected retracement level from $69K to $15.5K (61.8%). The main difference is, after this expected retracement level, Bitcoin has never fallen lower than it's low the year before, even if it came close in 2020 due to a black swan event, so it's technically a dead cat bounce without bearish continuation basically. Even if full-blown bull markets, when price has reached a new ATH there are still dips of usually up to -35%, but otherwise more recently (2021) up to -50% now apparently. TL:DR: There are always dips.

Didn't see your post before, but it's a great point and analysis prior to the ETF launches.

I think this is the main point people have missed. Much of the rally from $25K to $48K, or at least from $30K, was based on anticipation of ETF launches. Now that the ETFs have launched, and the price hasn't immediately pumped to the upside as many were expecting, price should realistically return to it's "pre-ETF hype" level of around $25K to $30K. The fact the top cam within 30 minutes of launch is very telling.


For me, ETF aside, I'll focus on the price action, with $48.5K always being a target throughout 2023 for what I consider to be a macro dead cat bounce, similar to that of 2019. That may seem overly pessimistic, but just like in 2019, people started to think we would see ATHs very soon and the like. I get that a lot of this current speculation/hype was based on ETFs, but even without them, at around $50K this is what we'd be hearing regardless imo, ignoring the need for price to consolidate considerable gains in recent months. It's about time to learn that after price pumps 60% from $30K to $49K within 3 months, it can crash just as hard if not quicker, or at minimum consolidate for many months more. Like the initial move from $15.5K to $30K in 2023, price then consolidated between $25K and $30K for 6 months before moving higher.

Well this would explain the high selling in past few days, the only issue I have is that this sell-off has bled into Bitstamp and other major exchanges, currently making it the highest selling volume on 3D chart since November 2022 capitulation. While that was the low in the market, this sell-off has come from a top in the market, and end of week will be a massive bearish gravestone doji if price closes below $44K.

I understand the concept of it being a bear trap, as price could reverse back to the upside when the selling subsides, however part of me feels like the damage has already been done long-term. That of printing an incredibly bearish red candle, given it's the first time in over a year where there is a strong bearish signal - the whole of 2023 never had a realistic bearish signal, only dips and a bit of FUD here and there.

I think short-term likely this will be a bear trap, similar to June 2019, where there was the massive gravestone doji with a -20% wick, and price pumped back to retest resistance over the next two weeks.

Always in the back of my mind is that price has moved from $30K to $48K with zero dips testing support. This means price can return to $30K with ease, as there was no support created on the way up.


Hard to follow this guy. He thought there would be a month delay in approval and launch of ETFs, despite it was well documented that the launches would likely be the following day. He also thought a "god candle" was going to occur once the ETF launched, which to me just seems completely daft. It's rare this happens when ETFs launch, as it takes time to build up liquidity and confidence in these products.

He also thinks he was "wrong but correct"; which is classic YouTube speak that can be translated into "being wrong but trying to maintain some credibility at the same time". This guy is an avoid for me.

Let's put things into perspective; the ETF volume was "only" 5% of total Bitcoin volume. Sure it's not insignificant (as I've previously suggested), but doesn't influence the market what so ever, it only follows.

Then have a look at some of the older Bitcoin products out there and the amount of selling that occured; BITS had an enormous red candle, the largest ever recorded, likewise with GBTC that had largest sell volume since at least pre-2017, possibly ever (although candle shows green, it was in the red). BITO had largest ever Daily red selling volume since launch, likewise with XBTF and BITC.

So the summary goes, Wall St older products sold to Wall St newer products. Because "buy the rumour sell the news" has been a tried and tested strategy for over a century. People want to consider Bitcoin as now being "TradFi" and all the "good" that come with it such as price stability, but first it's best to acknowledge the "bad" that arrives initially. It usually starts with a big sell off - welcome to "TradFi".