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- Investors are passive, gamblers active, it couldn't be otherwise.
Unless if the investor is "daytrading nakowa(tm)", which has proven to be a profitable strategy with his streaky play. |
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This just in: 00:17:37 (153338) <percent> banker: I was beaten already. REMEMBER: the rules changed during the course of my play. I HAVE NO INCENTIVE TO PLAY MORE IN THE FUTURE. 00:36:09 (153338) <percent> I'm DONE. pulling back 2976 coins. NEW RULES KILLED ME. 00:36:54 (153338) <percent> I will NOT play here again.  I cannot win anymore. 00:38:28 (153338) <percent> I WON 13k Bitcoins on just-dice.com. I was beaten today, lost 2976, otherwise I'd be up approximately 16k. well, congratulations. woohoo. |
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  streaky spam betting again, just at lower stakes....good for daytrading nakowa(tm) |
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That last line "donate for luck" is increasingly common. People selling 'karma' or just asking for 'rain'.
I've tried to allow everything in the chat except for blatant spamming or advertising of competitors.
Should I be stricter and disallow begging for donations? Racism? Drug talk? Where do you draw the line? I don't know!
I personally think that begging in the form of (rain/karma/donation/budda/african children/...) should be banned after one warning. Between the nakowa 300 spam bets and incessant begging, it's increasingly harder to follow the intricacies of nuanced, rational discourse, investor moaning, and the merits of sparklecoin. |
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If the nakowa2.txt file and my crunching is correct, what is the probability of 10347 successful bets and 4047 unsuccessful ones (looking at the 5 BTC and over bets after the shift [yeah, I know this is not completely fair but it shows how astronomically impossible the "cherry picking" argument is])?
In[1305]:=
n! / (k! (n - k)!) * p^k (1 - p)^(n - k) /. {n -> 10347 + 4047, k -> 10347, p -> 0.495}
Out[1305]= 4.79205803137647*10^-650
So more likely to brute force a private key.
Time for bed....
Appreciate the additional analysis and graph, perhaps I will look at the data myself. Even if the shift 1 and shift 2 calculations are correct, I suspect that this has more to do about his betting strategy (sizing), although it is unclear without looking at the data how that could affect more than 1 way of shifting. |
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You still haven't explained why you chose to shift by 2 rather than by 1 or by 3.
Excellent point. It would be interesting to see the distribution of bet outcomes across different shift values to see if it is warrants looking into, or if this is simply the result of cherry-picking. Correct or not, I appreciate the effort put into this analysis. |
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Dabs, if I win the next one, please donate the winnings to your new charity thing.
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Well.. You guys must realize that it would be very easy and untraceable thing as dooglus to steal from investors. He knows the seed and can act as players and steal thousands, hundreds or tens of bitcoins - and nobody will ever know!
Yes, that would be the ultimate way to steal. To mitigate the risk, however, would involve allowing inquiry into a suspected user's betting history, which presents separate issues. One can also spread out winnings across multiple accounts so as to fall below investigation threshold. Perhaps there is a way to make the server seed "provably secure" without introducing other risk factors such as collusion, however for now it is solely relying on trust in doog. It is a required condition to invest in JD. |
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 Not a welcome sight for investors. This illustrates how one whale can dominate the action and skew the stats with just a handful of significant bets. |
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I would like the redact my claims. It seems I let my bias get the best of me and I don't like baseless scam accusations from others on the forum, so it seems that I should hold myself to the same standard.
While I still believe certain things are suspicious about the big JD losses, I would like nothing more than an open discussion of it. Thank you all and apologizes for coming off so strong.
Rare case of cognitive dissonance losing out to rational thought. I commend you Daggett993. |
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In for 5 tickets this week. We need action!
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Doog, have you considered comps for whales, similar to brick and mortar casinos? A small % of the expected profit from the player's action could be a good incentive to attract and sustain action. Maybe not as effective as booze, hookers, and blow, but it's still good crypto appreciation With only a 1% edge, there is no wiggle room left for comps. Better to have the lowest edge and fairest system then bells & whistles. Maybe you are correct. This is a low edge game, and larger players disproportionately dominate the action, so it would affect the profit more than it would for a traditional casino. I think that comps are more psychological in nature, designed to make the player feel special and appreciated. Perhaps something small, like a special symbol next to the name in the bet window and chat window, would work just as well. Provides differentiation, and doesn't cost more than a field in the user table and a few lines of code. This also cuts down on impostering in the chat window (like recent Dr. Lee imposter advertising to give away BTC). |
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Doog, have you considered comps for whales, similar to brick and mortar casinos? A small % of the expected profit from the player's action could be a good incentive to attract and sustain action. Maybe not as effective as booze, hookers, and blow, but it's still good crypto appreciation |
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There's a checkbox at the bottom of the 'account' tab now which you can check to have all your deposits auto-invested.
So now you can invest from the comfort of your bitcoin wallet.
The minimum investment amount is still 0.01 BTC. Deposits smaller than that will be credited to your balance, as before.
All deposits are subject to auto-investment once you check the box, including inputs.io deposits.
Thanks doog, that is a very useful feature that many non-gambling investors will be using. Is it possible to have a divest-autowithdrawal feature too? |
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Dabs, please keep it aside for now. If ANRUCE doesn't pay you back, consider it a donation to offset your loss. 100 tickets! See if this will attract some action  |
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Dabs, if it's just me playing again and you haven't gotten the 0.33 back, keep the round winnings until you do.
I'll be the whale and buy 100 tickets next round.
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BTW Dabs, did 1ANRUCE ever pay you back the 0.33?
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Winner by default. How anticlimatic.
Another 5 in this week. We need whales!
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In for 0.01. It better sparkle so bright that I need a welding mask |
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Thanks doog, indeed that is a very close approximation of the amount invested. Hope more action comes to the site |
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