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41  Economy / Economics / Re: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend on: November 24, 2013, 08:03:18 PM
This thread talks about existing markets but what about non-existant markets?

One almost universal mistake made in long-term price targets is the ceteris paribus fallacy. The idea is that Bitcoin will be used for everything that gold and fiat money is used for today, and everything else will stay the same. The reasoning goes, "If Bitcoin takes over the world, the price will reflect the value of what it took over: gold's functionality as a store of value, PayPal's transactional functionality, and the money supply of the world's currencies." Such estimates generally put the target price between $100,000 and several million dollars (in today's dollars).

That's a bit like arguing, in 1994, that email will be worth the value of the postal system.

Looking to a future year when the entire global economy is denominated in bitcoins, 1 BTC won't just be worth ~1/21,000,000 of today's global output. It won't just be worth ~1/21,000,000 of whatever the global output would have been in that year if Bitcoin had never arisen. It will be worth ~1/21,000,000 of the global output of a Bitcoin-enabled world.

A world with friction-free commerce, small and relatively much more efficient government (if any), absolutely booming business thanks to predictable "monetary policy" and market-defined interest rates and free stock markets, and a radically internationalized division of labor. Any one of those four should be enough to increase global output by an order of magnitude, if not more. But all four of them at once? Not to mention all the future applications like escrow, smart property, assurance contracts, distributed autonomous corporations (DACs) and autonomous agents, etc.

Given all that, and taking into account how all of this is included in the binary bet, I think the target price should be in the billions per coin. The timescale is less clear, but probably within a decade after mainstream adoption is reached.

Anyone with an mBTC will be set for life.

EDIT: To be clear, the price target for initial mainstream adoption probably is between $100,000 and $10,000,000 or so. I'm guessing $1 million as a conservative target. But once the dust settles we start into the economy-wide effects of a Bitcoin world and continue up a few more orders of magnitude in not very many years.

Newbies remark here: we have to consider other cryptocurrencies as well, not only Bitcoin...

42  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Safe deposit? on: November 23, 2013, 02:46:29 PM
bump
43  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Safe deposit? on: November 22, 2013, 08:31:38 PM
Megacoin -> wait 1 year -> Investment x 20 | 99% save

How is this related to subject?
44  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Safe deposit? on: November 22, 2013, 08:05:31 PM
Hi everyone! I am quite new to this stuff. I have decided to store my Bitcoins in multiple paper wallets. However, i am not sure what i am going to do with alts after i have bought them from Cryptsy. Leave them there? I am not confident storing them on my pirated online computer.
45  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 19, 2013, 07:40:50 PM
I think that its probable that at some point, within the next 24 hours, on some exchange, somewhere, there will be sub $500 prices.

Cheesy

BITSTAMP almost hit 500 5 minutes ago.
46  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / The train has left or .. alts? on: November 19, 2013, 11:09:41 AM
Hello everyone. First of all, i would like to tell you that my was introduction to bitcoin was when the price was around 15 dollars. I was searching for opportunities the make money online and found a article where bitcoins were mentioned. At the time i already thought that i was too late to buy. Now, late October i heard news about first ATM on my national news channel. I got interested again and found this forum. After reading lots of threads i decided to  put my money in. The sad part is, i could not get my account verified on bitstamp for no good reasons. Now it has been 3 weeks and only yesterday i managed to get verified and send money to account. Within this time the price has tripled, lucky me! Considering that the estimated value for bitcoin is around 300k  and bitcoin`s value is to be around 1000 dollars soon, then there is "only" 300x ROI to be made. Looking at alts, their value is so low that even if they get 1000 times more valued then some of them dont reach single digit! It is hard to believe, that if bitcoins value is around 300k, then todays alts are being sold for single digits? I would like to get some good investment advice from experienced cryptocoiners.  Smiley   
47  Economy / Economics / Re: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend on: November 12, 2013, 05:19:02 PM
Could we have quarterly vertical lines? It's difficult to pinpoint the exact moment we "will" reach $1000 Wink.

Sure, since I am not the one doing the charts anyway Smiley

Currently it seems to be postponed until May 2014...

No seriously, the value of this analysis is to give you ideas on when we are ahead or behind the trend. Objectively, not based on handdrawings. For example, my decision to time the selling last September was stupid, since the trendline was so much behind that any downside was very unlikely. As I did not have imminent need for the money, I better had waited and sold for example now, as we are ahead the trend (and at triple the price!).

Confused here Huh . The trendline shows that oct/nov price ise around 300 USD/BTC? You say you say that we are at triple over the trend price? I do not understand that part. Are you predicting that the price is gonna fall?
48  Economy / Speculation / Re: 400 in 6 - 12 hours! :) on: November 11, 2013, 07:42:10 PM
Crash from 2200 to 400 yuan seems too much.

 Grin I like your comment, sir!
49  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Cheap, perspective altcoin(s)? on: November 10, 2013, 09:09:06 AM
bump
50  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Cheap, perspective altcoin(s)? on: November 09, 2013, 06:48:21 PM
Maybe you can suggest some alternatives?
If you want a rare coin, then go for CGB.
Otherwise I'd recommend MEC.

CGB caught my eyes also, but there are lots of people telling it is not perspective. I like that it has a big group of facebook followers.
51  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Cheap, perspective altcoin(s)? on: November 09, 2013, 06:23:52 PM
I think we all know where bitcoin is going in terms of price (to the moon  Cheesy). Since its price is already so high, there is not so much (i know it is relative) money to made. Can anybody suggest me some cheap and perspective altcoin(s) to throw my money on? Wanna be that norwegian guy Cool. Thank you guys!

XPM, FRC, YAC. Those altcoins actualy add some value to cryptocoin scene yet their hashrates are low enough to provide plenty of room
for making massive profits merely on eventual future hashrate increase (if you double hashrate than price should double as well else most
miners will stop mining). Another important thing with those coins is that market volatility is very low (not much coins offered for sale or
buy) and that means it does not take so much money to actualy double current prices of those coins. LTC, PPC and so on, well, I think it
is too late to make massive profits there (when I say massive I think in terms of 1000% or more).

Norwegian guy was really dumb to dump 1k BTC to buy a stupid house. Right now those 1k BTC worth 2+ times more money. What a noob!

Do not cash-out from BTC yet. Just don't!
This is all wrong, I wouldn't mine any of those 3 alts.

Maybe you can suggest some alternatives?
52  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Cheap, perspective altcoin(s)? on: November 09, 2013, 06:16:02 PM
I think we all know where bitcoin is going in terms of price (to the moon  Cheesy). Since its price is already so high, there is not so much (i know it is relative) money to made. Can anybody suggest me some cheap and perspective altcoin(s) to throw my money on? Wanna be that norwegian guy Cool. Thank you guys!

XPM, FRC, YAC. Those altcoins actualy add some value to cryptocoin scene yet their hashrates are low enough to provide plenty of room
for making massive profits merely on eventual future hashrate increase (if you double hashrate than price should double as well else most
miners will stop mining). Another important thing with those coins is that market volatility is very low (not much coins offered for sale or
buy) and that means it does not take so much money to actualy double current prices of those coins. LTC, PPC and so on, well, I think it
is too late to make massive profits there (when I say massive I think in terms of 1000% or more).

Norwegian guy was really dumb to dump 1k BTC to buy a stupid house. Right now those 1k BTC worth 2+ times more money. What a noob!

Do not cash-out from BTC yet. Just don't!

Thanks for the info, but i dont think that 10 time is massive since bitcoin has 72000 fold his initial value to date.
53  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Cheap, perspective altcoin(s)? on: November 09, 2013, 05:40:38 PM
Maybe this thread would be for overall altcoin discussion, since something like that do not exist?
54  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Cheap, perspective altcoin(s)? on: November 09, 2013, 01:20:14 PM
I think we all know where bitcoin is going in terms of price (to the moon  Cheesy). Since its price is already so high, there is not so much (i know it is relative) money to made. Can anybody suggest me some cheap and perspective altcoin(s) to throw my money on? Wanna be that norwegian guy Cool. Thank you guys!
55  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] CryptogenicBullion (CGB) • Upgrade to v 1.1.6.4 • Nov 5, 2013 on: November 08, 2013, 06:05:50 PM
CGB price seems to be moving up in fiat but not as much in BTC
I wonder though, where the price would be if cryptsy would open USD markets.

This is what I keep telling people. If we get Cryptsy to the net worth of 500k. All alt coin values increase. So buy shares now! https://cryptostocks.com/securities/57

Is CGB worth the gamble? I have a pretty good overview of bitcoin`s perspective, but what about alts overall? CGB cought my eyes on the topic about coins with the biggest facebook fan group.

The price is moving up with BTC, I would say it is probably one of the safest investments to have along with the 2% annual interest.

But in terms of ROI?
56  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] CryptogenicBullion (CGB) • Upgrade to v 1.1.6.4 • Nov 5, 2013 on: November 08, 2013, 05:11:20 PM
CGB price seems to be moving up in fiat but not as much in BTC
I wonder though, where the price would be if cryptsy would open USD markets.

This is what I keep telling people. If we get Cryptsy to the net worth of 500k. All alt coin values increase. So buy shares now! https://cryptostocks.com/securities/57

Is CGB worth the gamble? I have a pretty good overview of bitcoin`s perspective, but what about alts overall? CGB cought my eyes on the topic about coins with the biggest facebook fan group.
57  Economy / Speculation / Re: Call the top on: November 08, 2013, 12:14:23 PM
$388, then a fall back to $200, then up to $250 where we will stay until buttercoin, then back up again.

Lets hope you are right!!
58  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 08, 2013, 12:07:37 PM
A rough estimate:




This is pretty much spot on.

PLEASE GOD!!!! (an atheist waiting bitstamp verification here)
59  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Bitstamp verification time? on: November 08, 2013, 11:50:25 AM
bump
60  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 07, 2013, 07:49:39 PM
As a newcomer and "rediscovering" bitcoin exactly a week ago and now waiting desperately verification on bitstamp, imagine how i am now watching the price movements  Shocked. Although, the last 2 hours seem promising. Cheesy
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