There is a special list for our traders. We push urgent updates and warnings to them. We sometimes use this forum thread, but for sensitive information, we use that private mailing list. It's separate from the signals that are sent out.

cj

Sorry for not responding, been busy.

Okay, let's recap.

(1) The WHY of this trade, or WHY I decided to buy at 1200ish came from a trade signal. The system detected that the pullback to 1190 was a temporary retraction. So I wasn't guessing, I was trading on a signal. But this is besides the point of the post. The WHY was generated from an algorithm (outside the scope of this discussion.)

(2) The PROTECT part was that (a) I expected my trade to go my way, then it (b) did not. So the point of this post was to say that if a trade (speculative buying and selling as opposed to buying and holding), if a trade does not go your way, GET OUT.

(3) The added emphasis of this particular post is on "not going your way right away". Too many people hold on in "hope mode", hoping that it will "eventually" go your way. My point is don't hope, EXPECT. And when you don't get what you expect, GET OUT.

(4) I'm not claiming it was a great trade, or even a winning trade. It was a failed trade. Not all trades do work out. It's how the game works. So... this is how you PROTECT your money. For a trader, despite it made a "few bucks",  it would be considered a "scratch trade". A scratch trade is a losing trade I escaped from.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS:
For traders, defensive trading means protecting your money. You protect your money in every trade. If the trade doesn't work out, try to escape, if you can scratch the trade, do so. Otherwise, take a small loss and call it quits. But DO NOT let it grow into a BIG LOSS. That is a sin.

P.S. This was originally privately posted to traders BECAUSE there was a caution on last night. The caution was issued that bitcoin might actually fall heavily in price. So this example was showing how you can still trade, even under a caution. The point was that while trading under a caution, you can still do so, just more defensively.

My motto, and mantra still remains -- control your risk, and the good times will take care of themselves.

So have fun, and control your risk : )

cj

(1) Technical analysis can predict news as I mentioned because of "insider trading". This is now an open fact on wall street as "secret" government reports were legally leaked to subscribers. Their orders appeared on the tickers long before news was released. There are always people in the now. Of course this doesn't include tsunamis, alien invasions, etc. But any sort of government or orchestrated news announcement is definitely leaked early.

(2) 1300 Fair Market Value from Bank of America came down from a highly reputable analyst. It was important news for bitcoin. But you have to read the whole thing. He was saying that 1300 was fair market value in the future *IF* certain things happened, such as 10% of online transactions being through bitcoin, etc.

But my motto, and my mantra never change. Control your risk, and the good times take care of themselves.

: )

cj

I think most people are missing the point. And, more importantly, the point of bitcoin itself.

Bitcoin is an *alternative* currency. So governments like China (that want to control everything) would naturally *hate* alternative currencies.

*BUT* the people of China who strongly distrust the official fiat currency, *LOVE* alternative currencies. Hence why many Europeans and Chinese are using Bitcoin to move money, and protect their money.

This certainly won't stop people from moving money into and out of bitcoin.

Additionally, countries insisting that Anti-Money-Laundering laws be adhered to when banking is involved is a no-brainer. They have to assert those laws (via international trade laws). So it's not a shocker either.

Have fun, and control your risk!

: )

cj

Last night alerts were sent out to all traders long before the price crash. Those of you not on the Alert Mailing list may have missed it. This reiterates the importance of getting on the list so you will not miss important alerts.

I cannot send those types of alerts to this forum for fears of being accused of causing a panic. So you must get on that list ASAP.

Thanks!!!!

: )

cj

Unfortunately last night's warnings came true. In fact the trendline break and confirmation (similar to the triangle break pattern I sent before) confirmed the collapse literally hours before the actual drop in price. Many would say the drop in price was due to the news of China, etc.

Technical Traders argue that there are always "people in the know", or insiders (possibly inside the Chinese government) who tell their friends and family, "sell your bitcoin now". The fingerprints of these "insiders" can be seen on the chart, and warn technical traders before the news actually comes out.

This has been true of almost every significant drop in price in history. Whether it was from insider trading, or the Technical Analysis god's taking pity on us chart watchers, nobody knows. But the fingerprints are almost always there.

As for bitcoin pushing back up. there are several technical things that need to happen before bitcoin can resume it's uptrend and recovery in a steady fashion.

* Disclaimer: The severe warnings mentioned in this post, only went out to our traders last night. I will always publicly only post moderate cautions, because I never want to be accused of causing a panic.

Thanks for the compliment!

Just keep in mind: beware trying to catch a falling knife.

But generally, I do agree with you. I feel that bitcoin has the potential to become a true commodity like gold. It has a few bugs and kinks to work out, but the potential is definitely there.

: )

cj

================================
   EXAMPLE OF A "GUARDED" TRADE
================================

*I know that buying and (especially) selling is not popular on this board. But money is money. And we should be protective of our money. So I'm posting this despite the fact that it might not be popular. But it's important to understand that you DO NOT have to watch in horror (like a deer in headlights) if something doesn't go your way. Investors need not read any further. But if you are a regular trader, Job #1 is to protect your capital.

*This was originally meant for others to read, but I'm re-posting it here because it can benefit all active traders.

Given the warnings I issued, and mention of Guarded, Protective, Defensive, etc, here is what I mean.

I just took a quick trade off the 1 Hour Signal. It said go long. But, there were warnings of caution.

So I still took the trade. As I show in the graphic, I DAMN WELL EXPECT the market to do what I want, and I expect it RIGHT NOW. Okay, I'll give it a tiny wiggle room, but especially with warnings on, not a whole lot of wiggle room.

So I enter the trade on the 1 Hour Signal, I don't get what I expect, so *I'M OUT*. In this case I made a few bucks, but even if I lost a few, or broke even -- because I PROTECTED MY MONEY. In the end, that is MY JOB. I'm happy to get lucky, but I'll be protective until I get those rocket lucky moves that make a fortune. This could have been one, but it didn't.

Hope Mode = Evil. No go, then get out. Know where your limits are, know where the limits of the trade are.

================================
   EXAMPLE OF A "GUARDED" TRADE
================================

Given the warnings I issued, and mention of Guarded, Protective, Defensive, etc, here is what I mean.

I just took a quick trade off the 1 Hour Signal. It said go long. But, there were warnings of caution.

So I still took the trade. As I show in the graphic, I DAMN WELL EXPECT the market to do what I want, and I expect it RIGHT NOW. Okay, I'll give it a tiny wiggle room, but especially with warnings on, not a whole lot of wiggle room.

So I enter the trade on the 1 Hour Signal, I don't get what I expect, so *I'M OUT*. In this case I made a few bucks, but even if I lost a few, or broke even -- because I PROTECTED MY MONEY. In the end, that is MY JOB. I'm happy to get lucky, but I'll be protective until I get those rocket lucky moves that make a fortune. This could have been one, but it didn't.

Hope Mode = Evil. No go, then get out. Know where your limits are, know where the limits of the trade are.

Marked up charts and warnings for the evening are being pushed to the Alert Mailing List. So please be sure you are on the list. If not, please get on the list, and message us for tonight's postings.

Currently 2 Warnings Issued.

: )

cj

Bitcoin has been steadily climbing towards its prior highs, and is now flirting with it. News has soured a bit with more talk about tulips, taxes, and government intervention. A little bit of talk about hacking, but light. What you want to see is confidence being instilled in the general public so they will adopt bitcoin.

Sentiment Analysis Engine of news articles and posts is indicating a shift to the negative as well.

The big issue at hand is the prior highs. Going into the Asian market sessions shortly, and with lighter volume, will enough buying step in to support the prior highs.

Recent levels where there could be risk has been pushed out via the Alert Mailing List, indicate where to exercise caution, and safe levels. If you are not on that list, please get on it ASAP. If you missed this recent risk report, please message us and we will send you a copy.

: )

cj

News is mixed. A few more references suggesting bitcoin is speculative like Tulip Mania (although I don't really agree, as Bitcoin is showing an adoption growth curve as opposed to speculative). But either way, news is mixed (as you can see below).

In addition, our Sentiment Analysis Engine is now online for bitcoin, so I'll be reporting that when I can as well. Currently based on the last 123 Articles/Posts analyzed, the sentiment is somewhat negative (which means, there are more news articles/posts speaking negatively about bitcoin, then positively). You can see that somewhat reflected in the articles listed below.

Bitcoin has pushed passed it's 1175 congestion zone into the 1200s which is a good sign. This happened when New York woke up, so it is most likely to large players purchasing bitcoin to satisfy business needs.

Hope everyone's day is going well, and will try to update thus report later this evening.

: )

cj

===============================================
NEWS & TRADER SENTIMENT NOW FULLY ONLINE
===============================================

I sent this notice to everyone via the Alert System. This is for everyone not subscribed to the Alert System. If you are not subscribed to our alert system, then please get on the list ASAP.



More details can be found on our site: http://www.bitcoincrystalballtrader.co

News Radar What The News Is Reporting.
The NewsRadar Engine has a sophisticated Artificial Intelligence Engine that reads hundreds and hundreds of news reports and studies each one to figure out what each article is reporting. You get a final summary of what the news is reporting.

Social Sentiment Pulse Now you can keep tabs on the retail opinion.
An army of Artificial Intelligence Bots constantly scours social media websites and takes the pulse of traders, experts and commentators -- and reports them back to you. You can use this to confirm that they are thinking along the same lines you are about the future you are interested in.

Confluence When dozens of technical indicators line up, confluence breeds confidence.
The Confluence Indicator constantly tracks dozens of the most popular, and time-tested technical analysis indicators with proprietary algorithms. When they line up, that’s when you know that probability is the highest for a profitable futures trade, and produce a profit.

I'm not sure I agree with the premise. Bitcoin has a use as a currency, and is being used as an alternative holding vehicle (like gold). Tulips were a perishable.

So long as other people begin adopting bitcoin, it will continue to be accumulated, and drive the value up.

If people abandon bitcoin altogether, then it could drop in value.

: )

cj

I like the number they came up with, funny: $98,500.

Me, having superior analytics actually derived a more specific number of $98,487.24 and 6 satoshi     : P

(Keep in mind, I had my tongue in my cheek the whole time I wrote this post.)

; )

cj

@kireinaha thanks for your kind words. Message me through our zendesk system, and I'll forward you a few signals so you can see what they look like.

But for the time being we are a little oversubscribed. Get on the waiting list for sure.

I will also keep posting to this forum when I have time. The only things I don't want to post are items that I feel might cause a panic.

: )

cj

@applelover from a trading standpoint, we recommend MtGox only because there is enough volume there that execution and fills will be a little cleaner, especially if you are trading any size at all.

Please make sure you are on the Urgent Message list.

Over the weekend we tried to notify everyone before the bitcoin mini crash hit when our systems detected it. There might have been a few subscribers that didn't get the notice.

I don't want to cause scares, so those notifications won't be posted to this forum, and will only go out on the Urgent Message system, so please make sure you are on that list. If you have any questions, or to confirm you are on the list, contact us through the zendesk system.

Thanks!

: )

cj

Took a very small trade at 850 for the bounce to 950. Out at 950. Happened really fast.