XC is such a great coin, but the price makes me confused. Every time the price go to around 0.002, some big holder is going to dump XC to 0.0016, and then another big holder is going to dump to 0.0013, I noticed this keeping for more than one month. When can we go up like a rocket?
Very weird market behavior.
If you have doubt and you think XC couldn't go up then read my last post:
To help potential investors to calculate their return of investment if they decide to put some BTC on XC i would want to share some simple calculation and projection.
Let's calculate the expected valu we could expect if you buy 10BTC of XC with 3 month maximum timeline (REV 3 target).
actual XC price of 170 (0.0017).
I will choose pessimistic projection to show you the expected valu we could expect from a 10BTC buy now.
First we have to estimate the odds to be delivered REV 3 (before end timeline 3 month) and REV3 is working correctly.
Let's choose a very pessimistic odds first with 30% chance REV 3 is delivered
Case 1 (winning case):
Estimated average sell price = 0.01 (conservative projection , XC marketcap about 35millions$)
Total BTC after sold = (0.01/0.0017)x 10 = 58.8 BTC
ExpectedValu (case1) = 0.3 x (58.8 - 10) = +14.64 btc (profit 30% of time)
Case 2 (loosing case):
Let say we loose 50% (again very pessimistic price would be 0.00085) of our investment 70% of time (as we have 30% success...)
Expected valu = -5 x 0.7= -3.5 BTC (lost 70% of time)
ExpectedValu investment now on XC with 30% success = -3.5 +14.64= +11.14 BTC
With these calculations i simply prooved you that even if you consider a pessimistic scenario case you could stil expect + 11.14 BTC win in average if you invest 10 BTC now on XC (for 3 month investment). I haven't count the benefit you would have to stack your coins for 3 month.
The 2 most important factor to consider when you do these projection are:
1/ the odds technology will be delived and working
2/ the expected price when 1/ is a success.
XC team have prooved us every day for the last 2 month they work really hard to reach their goal and deliver all the feature on the roadmap.
Now i share with you my own asomption:
I would expect to be delivered REV3 in the next 3 month with minimum 70% odds, i would also expect the price to go pretty easily (around 0.015/0.02 average 0.0175)
EV (10BTC buy now) = +63.39 BTC
I expect a gain of 63.39 BTC in average for each 10 BTC invested on XC at the actual price of 0.0017 having as target REV 3 release(3 month max).
As you can see not investing your money on XC now is not profitable.
You could say me, why should i choose XC instead of another altcoins. I would simply respond, you can have some confidence given the past and present that XC team have the technical capacity and motivation to deliver the road map features with higher odds than you could expect with others coins. The full project of XC is outstanding so the expected valu is HUGE.
I think if XC doesn't go up much now it's only a lack of liquidity on altcoins and bitcoin market ATM, all major altcoins are dumped for days. XC price react really well in comparison. When liquidity will flow again i am pretty sure XC will attract a nice % of fresh money
Wait and see knowing investment is EV+.
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I'm still waiting for my Fulltilt money to come back from the DOJ. It's all going into XC of course.
When PS took over FT the money was in my account
