Bitcoin Forum
June 26, 2024, 04:58:38 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 27.0 [Torrent]
 
  Home Help Search Login Register More  
  Show Posts
Pages: « 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 »
41  Economy / Speculation / Re: "A currency that increases in value is a terrible thing" on: March 24, 2014, 02:30:45 PM
For businesses to use bitcoin as a mainstream payment gateway, it's value (market cap) and liquidity is far from sufficient, however large it might seem.  If it reaches stability too early and too low it will not be able to achieve that purpose.  That is why I believe it will be mostly speculative for a few more years, and hopefully increase in value a lot more before it stabilizes.

Just my noob opinion.


It isn't probable that the increased market cap will create stability. It will only attract players with deeper pockets and better knowledge on how to manipulate the market. The problem is that the main attraction towards bitcoin is speculation, so there will always be volatility, that is the outcome of speculative play. Right now we have these "whales" who play with millions of dollars. But in the future, we would have large institution playing the same game but only with billions and also with better ability to understand market manipulation.
Only way to lose this instability is for it to be unattractive for speculative play.
42  Economy / Speculation / Re: "A currency that increases in value is a terrible thing" on: March 24, 2014, 02:23:14 PM

Stable inflation didn't cause the financial problems that we see in US. The problem is not in the school of thought, but in lose management principles and corruption.



I simply argued that we operate under a myth that "deflation is bad."  

I made no claim that inflation caused "the financial problems that we see in US."  What caused the problems in the US financial system is the same thing that's been causing problems in the bitcoin financial system: trust in third parties.

In the US dollar financial system trust is required; in the bitcoin financial system trust it is optional.  


While I agree that stable deflation (1% year) could be done without heavy drawbacks, then it's still not as efficient as with stable inflation. (with bitcoin there is no stability with deflation either). In the modern world, the major powers are in a constant economic battle with each other. If deflation would be more efficient, then you could be sure that they would adopt it just to have an edge over their competition. The world isn't stupid and bitcointalk isn't the community of tortured geniuses, who are the only ones who know how to do it right.
Without trust, bitcoin will just die. Trust is the main thing that makes people put their wealth into bitcoin. Without trust there will be no wealth in bitcoin, and it will be just a fun innovative play money.
43  Economy / Speculation / Re: "A currency that increases in value is a terrible thing" on: March 24, 2014, 02:06:57 PM
Presently, we operate under a myth that mild inflation is a positive.  We believe that the mild deflation that a fixed supply currency would entail (once adoption equilibrium had been achieved) would be a bad thing and lead to decreased wealth in the aggregate.  

I disagree:

*******************

The quantity theory of money states that

   M V = P Q,         (1)

where M = money supply, V = money velocity, P = price level, Q = real output (goods, service, etc).  I think the vast majority of economists agree with this equation, although their opinion may differ on how it should be used.

It is common to associate a growing economy with growing real output, Q (i.e., more goods being produced, more services being used, etc.).  If you re-arrange Eq. (1) to solve for real output, Q, you get

   Q = M V / P .

So real output, Q, can grow three different ways (or more properly, it has 3 degrees of freedom):

   1.  Money supply, M,  can increase (what you said).
   2.  Money velocity, V, can increase (e.g., an increase in the rate that bitcoin-days are destroyed)
   3.  Price level, P, can decrease (the feared deflationary spiral).


What I wrote above can be understood as fact.  Now let's talk mythology.  (Myths can be useful as they align peoples' views, permitting communication from a common frame of reference.  However, it is important to question from time-to-time whether our shared myths are still useful).  

Presently, we operate under a myth that "deflation is bad."  This means that if we want to increase real output, Q, we must rule out Option #3:

   1.  Money supply, M,  can increase.
   2.  Money velocity, V, can increase.
   3.  Price level, P, can decrease. NOT ALLOWED DUE TO OUR SHARED MYTHS

According to our mythology, we must choose #1 or #2.  So the Fed lowers interest rates to encourage spending (increase V) and buys assets to increase its balance sheet (increase M).

I would argue that focusing on #1 and #2 tend to increase output, but the increase is mostly garbage output, not real and useful output.  Manipulating #1 and #2 cause us to exploit our natural resources at a faster rate but provides less real and useful output than if the economy was left to its own devices, also leaving less resources available for our children.  But this is a subject for another longer post….

*******************


Stable inflation didn't cause the financial problems that we see in US. The problem is not in the school of thought, but in lose management principles and corruption. Greenspan was the one who started promoting that everyone should just trust the private sector of finance, without any regulation or supervision. And he was the one who promoted the idea that the private sector of finance should have safety-nets for all the risks it took. These management principles created a careless environment, where certain privileged people could only win even if they lost. And all of course at the expense of everyone else.

It's funny to read some of the posts here, who are anti-Fed and pro-ultra liberal at the same time. The ultra liberal principles allowed all the crooks to leech on everyone else, because there were no rules why they shouldn't do this. This is the same reason that has ruined any trust towards the bitcoin market system. Most of the community were sheep who thought that the free market will take care of everything, just so they could justify their passiveness. But the free market can't handle corruption, and if there isn't enough supervision and regulations then you can be sure that crooks will exploit the free market in their favor.
44  Economy / Speculation / Re: "A currency that increases in value is a terrible thing" on: March 24, 2014, 01:49:47 PM
You're stuck in the mode of
Don't make assumptions. Instead try reading the WORDS in your screen. I specifically discuss bitcoin as a currency here. So I ask you, specifically: Why would you be upset that your purchasing power keeps increasing (assume for the sake of discussion that it does)?


It's because price stability is THE quality aspect of every currency. Low quality currencies are those of high volatility.
The reason is simple, you can't use low quality currencies to do business. When your company gets billed X amount of bitcoins, but you have a 3 weeks to pay that bill, then it's a lottery if that bill increases in value or decreases. You can't run a business where most of the liquid asset prognosis are based on a lottery.

Currency stability is created by complex calculations, based on the relation of current available resources and money in circulation. This calculation will decide if it's necessary to add or remove money from the circulation, so available resources and circulating money is in constant balance. The better the balance is kept, the higher is the currencies quality and more stable the prices.
Bitcoin has a fixed coin supply, without any consideration given to available resources. Bitcoin can never be a quality currency because it just lacks the necessary complexity to keep the balance. If anyone wants to do business with bitcoin, then it's only possible through services like Bitpay, who offer fiat stability to support bitcoin.
There is a chance that we will see a new open sourced monetary system in the future, that could handle all the necessary complexities to create an real quality transparent currency. I certainly hope we do. But right now, bitcoin seems like a quality currency only to those, who have learned about finance from youtube videos.
45  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 23, 2014, 04:25:06 PM
There is only one riskless profitable trade at present:  Buy on bfx and sell on another exchange.  The 563 seller appears to have infinite coins.  For more than 24 hours now one person has had total control over the Btcusd rate worldwide.  And that person is evidently a self-destructive lunatic.


Yes, he must be a self-destructive lunatic, because there is no way that the price is going down more then that.
No way I tell you... No way! No..no..no..nonononononono noooooooo!

46  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 21, 2014, 01:47:41 PM
Lesson learned!
Never ever go bullish again  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
It didn´t feel right anyway  Wink
Shorting all the way down to 300$

Once the über bears start to become bullish, it is time to aggressively increase your short Smiley

fonzie brought shame to bears everywhere by buying this early
47  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 21, 2014, 12:57:44 PM
Tip of the day:
Flash crashes like these aren't accidents by incompetent whales. Most of the coins will be sold to own buy orders and the main objective is to create a panic inducing show. The resulting panic will allow you to buy up a lot of coins with a cheap price. Outcome: Profit
48  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 21, 2014, 12:03:05 PM
The price is falling!! ... quick.. someone.. make couple of graphs and draw lines on it... that will stop it!
49  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: March 19, 2014, 05:16:40 PM
I am not seeking any "investments" from anyone, am not selling any services, and do not have plan to do so.

We'll see.. we'll see.
50  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin down Litecoin UP 2014 on: March 19, 2014, 05:11:08 PM
Lets not flat out lie. It's unbecoming. You don't think people are smart. You think you are smart. But not others.



No, I really don't. I haven't met many people that aren't smarter then me in some subject. People are just different kinds of smart, so it expresses differently.
51  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why do people still think we can make it past 1000 anytime soon? on: March 19, 2014, 05:03:01 PM
I've been following news on Latin America and Middle East ... I think bitcoin will expand on these areas, while been lite stagned on EU/US ...

PS-> Sounds like in Latin America elections is preaty much reassembling "cold war" times where you should choose to be either libertarian or Statism; btw its' reminds me ...

A story that might not be a story, and a recent reminder from Satoshi.
https://bitcoinfoundation.org/forum/index.php?/topic/745-a-story-that-might-not-be-a-story-and-a-recent-reminder-from-satoshi/page__hl__venezuela



I think that if someone could effectively market bitcoin in south- and central-America, then we could really get 1BTC 10,000$+. I think that this region would be the biggest and most suitable market yet. What troubles me, is that I see no progress of this development. I think that with proper contacts and funding you could make bitcoin very popular there. I was certain during December that bitcoin will enter south-America in spring, but will of development I have began to loose faith for future potential. Without conquering new ground, bitcoin will just slowly die without any new booms.

I haven't thought about Middle East because I think that using Bitcoin will create confusion on it's suitability with Sharia.
But give me Mexico, Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina and Colombia and I'll start posting train pics.
52  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why do people still think we can make it past 1000 anytime soon? on: March 19, 2014, 04:52:29 PM
Wow. You have to be a real fucktard to get banned on btctalk. Congrats on that one.

At least you admit you champion the current market conditions. Whatever you think lines your pockets the most I suppose. Maybe just maybe there are enough idiots out here for you to influence to scrape a few dollars more of the top of the ask and bid price to make it worth your while.

I have no beef with btctalk and I think that their ban was justified. It was just an unfortunate outcome of me not responding well to threats.
I'm hardly championing the current market conditions. My tactic is simple, but has proven itself effective - sit in fiat and only jump in, if there is a strong reason to jump in and be ready to jump out when the time is right. This is the nature of this current market - rises are fast but weak and temporal. There needs to be some market development to raise new trust before this bear market is over. You can't just draw a line and expect that everything will be good because last years pattern showed that it was good. Last years patterns are caused by real reasons, not the other way around.
Bitcoin biggest holders (in all probability the exchanges), should unite to create an more trustworthy market system, with constant internal audits and transparency to the public. Only then would smart investors feel safer investing back into crypto. You can't just draw a line and expect that the investors will believe it without reason, only sheep follow these meaningless lines.
53  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why do people still think we can make it past 1000 anytime soon? on: March 19, 2014, 04:19:32 PM
Buffet once said - trading is process of redistributing wealth from least patient to most patient  Wink

I like that statement for many reasons.

To the OP: If you agree with the fundamental improvement of bitcoin over our fiat systems it would be easy to see why its value and price is/will be over $1000/coin/


People who think that bitcoin can replace fiat are the ones who learn about finance from youtube videos.
To replace fiat, bitcoin supply should be fixed according to some practical everyday resource like oil, coal, corn etc. Only then it would have price stability. The pseudo-resource of fixed rate coin mining is a foolish way to control money. If bitcoin would become world currency, then unfair wealth distribution would increase tenfolds.

People who think that bitcoin should be fixed to some practical everyday resource are the ones who learn about bitcoin, economics, and finance from people who know little about any of the three.



People who can't understand the value of currencies price stability and security, are the ones who learn finance from youtube videos, and who think that schools are evil, because they aren't fun and easy like the youtube videos they prefer. The best "educational" videos are made by guys whose username is something like Bitcoin$$Playa and who can confirm that bitcoin is especially secure because of it's speculative value without an anchor. So, everyone should buy now to become Ze New w0rld l33tz.

Lol. What was your username pre-3/14/14?  I have a few guesses.

You are like bear troll 101. Straight out of the fud-to-bring-price-low while pump-to-get-price-high handbook.

Right now you love LTC. No coincidence that you arrived right before the LTC houbi buy the rumor sell the news pump and dump.

You'll be gone from here in another week or so. And will be forgotten. He'll, they probably already miss you over at the btc-e troll box.  

Meanwhile, for the rest of us, life goes on as normal.

My previous username got banned for disagreements with an certain individual. If you have been an active reader of this forum, then you can probably guess the answer with ease.
With investments, I mostly support the side that has more strength. When bulls have more strength, then I'm bullish, when bears, then bearish. I would so try to say things, that would make bitcoin look good, if I had any reality based support to do this. I'm not the kind of guy who goes bullish with the support of denial and empty hopes. Give me new bitcoin exchanges with decent volume in new geographical locations, and I'm as bullish as can be. But for the previous months, there haven't been a single strong reason, that would give me assurance of bitcoins strenght. And I'm not happy about it, because I would earn a lot more if bitcoin would be rising.
I just don't see that denial and building false hopes are a very effective methods to guide your investments. Sorry.
54  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin down Litecoin UP 2014 on: March 19, 2014, 04:08:36 PM
Your communist ideas of fairness is what drives every western political decision and the very reason the economy is tanking. Truck on comrade.

You are missing the point by a thousand miles.

Western propaganda is only talking about fairness (oh, and human rights of course).

In western reality, the lobbyists, oligarchs and fat cats get more and more every year, while the rest of society is under water.

It is pretty obvious to me, that especially in the US and in countries under its influence people got brainwashed and conditioned to freak out, whenever they hear the word communism. But this is pretty different in other parts of the world...

I'm out of LTC again and back in fiat, but not out of BTC-E yet, because there is a good chance that there will be another and a stronger rise. Let's see what happens.

eiskalt, it's like with the bitcoin community. Talking about evil banksters and how bitcoin would bring liberty to finance. But, what everyone really wants, is for everyone to pump wealth into their coins, so they would get rich without any work or education. If bitcoin were about freedom, not greed, then the new coin supply wouldn't have been built in a way where half of the coins will come out in 5 years, and the rest for the next 120 years. The design was made like that on purpose, to build a strong starting momentum and attract people with greed. The sad thing is that the growth will slow down together with coin supply, because people aren't this stupid to pump wealth into the hands of the "early adopters". People are smart enough to build alternatives that doesn't have this pack of leeches dragging everyone else down.

Manipulator talking about how people are smart. Funny stuff.

Yeah, you REALLY believe people are smart. That's why you didn't come over here to pump LTC and the  dump it. Haha. Classic.

Yeah, you believe people are smart. Right.  Cheesy

Well people mostly are smart. I also believe that most of the people here in this forum are smart. Their judgment is often clouded by their emotional attachment to bitcoin though. Religion can even make smart people look stupid, and the same rule mostly applies here.
But the bitcoin religion won't spread very far, because the "unfairness" factor isn't very well hidden. People with even the simplest financial knowledge can see that it's not right, that half of the coins will come out in 5 years and the rest in 120 years. It's easy to judge with common sense, that the system is built for supporting parasites. That is the simple reason why most of the population doesn't want anything to do with Bitcoin.

And of course, Litecoin is no different. It has the same moronic financial rules, but it's history and technology are slightly superior. I think that LTC will be the fun coin for the near future, that will have volatility enough to make it profitable. If you have strong emotional attachment to bitcoin, then you can hodl while the price is slowly dropping, it's everyones personal choice.
55  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 19, 2014, 03:55:15 PM
Yeah, regular glass beads are not good comparisons, because you don't actually need much resources to build glass beads.
It's more like glass beads with pieces of rocks inside, that have been brought to earth from Mars by a spaceship. Meaning, that it does cost a lot of resources to build one "Mars rock glass bead", all while wasting this energy actually doesn't improve anything, or make any sense in general.
56  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why do people still think we can make it past 1000 anytime soon? on: March 19, 2014, 03:33:37 PM
Buffet once said - trading is process of redistributing wealth from least patient to most patient  Wink

I like that statement for many reasons.

To the OP: If you agree with the fundamental improvement of bitcoin over our fiat systems it would be easy to see why its value and price is/will be over $1000/coin/


People who think that bitcoin can replace fiat are the ones who learn about finance from youtube videos.
To replace fiat, bitcoin supply should be fixed according to some practical everyday resource like oil, coal, corn etc. Only then it would have price stability. The pseudo-resource of fixed rate coin mining is a foolish way to control money. If bitcoin would become world currency, then unfair wealth distribution would increase tenfolds.

People who think that bitcoin should be fixed to some practical everyday resource are the ones who learn about bitcoin, economics, and finance from people who know little about any of the three.



People who can't understand the value of currencies price stability and security, are the ones who learn finance from youtube videos, and who think that schools are evil, because they aren't fun and easy like the youtube videos they prefer. The best "educational" videos are made by guys whose username is something like Bitcoin$$Playa and who can confirm that bitcoin is especially secure because of it's speculative value without an anchor. So, everyone should buy now to become Ze New w0rld l33tz.
57  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin down Litecoin UP 2014 on: March 19, 2014, 03:27:52 PM
Your communist ideas of fairness is what drives every western political decision and the very reason the economy is tanking. Truck on comrade.

You are missing the point by a thousand miles.

Western propaganda is only talking about fairness (oh, and human rights of course).

In western reality, the lobbyists, oligarchs and fat cats get more and more every year, while the rest of society is under water.

It is pretty obvious to me, that especially in the US and in countries under its influence people got brainwashed and conditioned to freak out, whenever they hear the word communism. But this is pretty different in other parts of the world...

I'm out of LTC again and back in fiat, but not out of BTC-E yet, because there is a good chance that there will be another and a stronger rise. Let's see what happens.

eiskalt, it's like with the bitcoin community. Talking about evil banksters and how bitcoin would bring liberty to finance. But, what everyone really wants, is for everyone to pump wealth into their coins, so they would get rich without any work or education. If bitcoin were about freedom, not greed, then the new coin supply wouldn't have been built in a way where half of the coins will come out in 5 years, and the rest for the next 120 years. The design was made like that on purpose, to build a strong starting momentum and attract people with greed. The sad thing is that the growth will slow down together with coin supply, because people aren't this stupid to pump wealth into the hands of the "early adopters". People are smart enough to build alternatives that doesn't have this pack of leeches dragging everyone else down.
58  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: March 19, 2014, 03:14:02 PM
Oh, it's great to see how the "building my castle" soon turned into "serious business project of creating an hotel".
Have you actually done any market research for creating this kind of an Hotel to this specific location? Do you have any knowledge or experience with tourism and accommodation? Do you even know what kind of future plans are made around Kunda and on how does it fit to create an Hotel in the middle of it?
You didn't buy this manor because this is an serious business project. You just bought it because it was the only option what came up, that helped to comfort your inferiority complex. That is the reason why you come here to talk about "your castle", that is the reason why you are as vain as an 10 year old girl, and that is the reason why you aren't able to do anything serious with money. We both know about the reputation you have both in Finland or Estonia, and what disturbs me, is that in this forum you are actually playing the role of an dignified analyst. And we both know that it's all for fishing out new naive people who would "invest" into your "projects".

Who would have known that people didn't start visiting this hotel?
Who would have known that leaving an unsecured laptop unattended can be dangerous?
Yeah right.. Con artists will always blame their tricks on incompetence and beg for pity.

Who is talking about serious business here?-) Can I not build a hotel if I want to, and run it as sloppily as I have run my other businesses ever since 2001?  Roll Eyes  Do I need to ask for permission from someone (actually - yes, there are many authorities that are very much involved and we will do our best to exceed all their requirements)?

Yes it might happen that my guests one Sunday morning have more purchasing power than the entire city of Kunda. In general I am happy to be able to comfort my inferiority complex by purchasing 51-room houses, most people are not. It goes without saying that I am and always have been totally inept with money; if this was not the case, I would now be working, instead of trolling. All decent people work.

If all you consume for your edification is yellow press, you might indeed think that I have as bad a reputation as all the other businessmen, politicians and celebrities in Finland. Surely the only logical explanation is that we all must be idiots? And it has nothing to do with selling the papers?  Roll Eyes

Could you divulge some more information about the supposed con here?

LOL, it's about time for you to start a new thread because here the others talk about other things, and bashing me will be deleted.

Of course you can run your projects sloppily if you follow these steps: a) Find someone who has money, but who doesn't have experience with money b) Get them to "invest" in your "projects" c) Channel the investments to your own personal pocket d) Claim incompetence, that you are really surprised that the project didn't work out, and that you are very sad and you will give your best to try better next time e) Profit

Well, there is a reason why the press also likes you, because you are a funny guy, that is often involved with schemes that are also funny. In Estonia, we have the same type of dude named "Villu Parvet", he is also a self proclaimed businessman, who makes a fool of himself by trying to be someone who he clearly isn't. The press absolutely loves him and all of his newest quests! I think that you should look him up in Estonia, and maybe you could trade different business plans and earn wealth beyond anyone’s wildest dreams.
I think that starting a new thread, just to bash you, is a little over the top. I think it's more dignified to stop in from time to time, just to sting your fragile little ego. Maybe this will inspire some questions among the "investors" who you are fishing for. Maybe it will just make you act less like Douche Baggins... Or maybe not... Either way, it will still be good fun.
59  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why do people still think we can make it past 1000 anytime soon? on: March 19, 2014, 01:53:15 AM
That's what I'm trying to tell here, that there is no point in getting your hopes up with ETF. Please don't start telling me things that particular gold holder anonymity, is comparable the anonymity that is the biggest part of the bitcoin market. It's senseless to ignore the long history, that gold has with human civilization, and the trust that this history brings into the equation.
When dealing with wealth, then it's all about trust. Wealth flows into people or places that can be trusted..

Please tell me more about the large gold price manipulation by gold cartels.

Of course they are manipulating the gold market, like most other markets are manipulated by large holders who are artificially restricting supply or simulating demand. What makes a difference with bitcoin, is that these sides are known and their interests are known and trusted. They know that they have to keep their methods refined, so it won't create too big of an outcry. People in finance know this and they trust these manipulators to be stable and subtle enough because they have a known history. With bitcoin, you don't know the players who could turn the game, and that is not knowing one of the most important things that you should know when investing.

I'm going to sleep for today. I hope that you really needed this explanation and you weren't just trolling me with pretending not to understand the difference.
60  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why do people still think we can make it past 1000 anytime soon? on: March 19, 2014, 01:20:17 AM

The small gold holder doesn't matter as long as an overview can be made over the biggest holders of the market. For instance, if already 9mil. of bitcoins would be accounted for, then you could let the other 3,5mil slide, and just hope for them to be hoarded up in some legit storage. It would still be a risk, but with a much lower factor. The current evidence, or you could rather say the lack of evidence, about ownership, is the thing that makes buying bitcoin risky to an man with financial experience. Investing smart, means learning as much as you can about the field and knowing all the important factors that could influence the market price. Bitcoin was an high-risk/high-gain investment, but now it has become too bloated for that. All thee the previous risks remain, making it now an high-risk/low-gain investment.

That's what I'm trying to tell here, that there is no point in getting your hopes up with ETF. Please don't start telling me things that particular gold holder anonymity, is comparable the anonymity that is the biggest part of the bitcoin market. It's senseless to ignore the long history, that gold has with human civilization, and the trust that this history brings into the equation.
When dealing with wealth, then it's all about trust. Wealth flows into people or places that can be trusted..
Pages: « 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 »
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!