You and me both. 16.4 looks good to me. Right now we are in a dip and i believe very close to the bottom (with the current volatility). Just looking at the data now. It's all a risk, but fun never the less.

The other point I wanted to make is that the closer you are to the mid point the more likely your order will be fulfilled and therefore has a higher impact on price.

True, and there's quite a few good reasons for doing that (including the amount of data they would have to return to the page, however it does state it's rounded also)

I'm talking about true value rather than actual value. The further out the bid and ask prices are (ie, the spread) the less impact they have on the price however this is way to complicated to go into here. If you place a 100000 BTC at $0.01 it will have very little impact in reality due to that additional distance factor but I was just stating the principle. Weighting would also need to factor in the calculation and I will work on that at a later date. I plan to automate the stats.

Paul.

Seeing as I can't yet post in the general threads but really wanted to comment / help / reply to someone on this subject, I'm posting it here:

Someone on another thread asked the question, why is the price at $17. Well here goes:

It's all about supply and demand (or buy and ask). Evaluating the price a bitcoin should be based on the current buy / ask market conditions goes like this:

Multiply all the buy amounts with the buy prices and find the average.
Multiply all the ask amounts with the ask prices and find the average.
Take the average of the two averages above and you have the middle price. Ie, the balance point where the prices will fluctuate around. With each and every trade, this balance point shifts, however in reality the actual price lags these changes and so sometimes you can exploit this. Let me show you how, based on mtgox data.

At the moment, the price is 16.77701

The data from mtgox is as follows:

Bid   12.6   8.83
Bid   12.65   6
Bid   12.7   27.01
Bid   12.75   37
Bid   12.85   156.25
Bid   12.9   7
Bid   12.95   3
Bid   13   1734.83
Bid   13.05   72.07
Bid   13.1   340.56
Bid   13.15   65
Bid   13.2   145.56
Bid   13.25   67.58
Bid   13.3   142.36
Bid   13.35   156.66
Bid   13.4   154.89
Bid   13.45   22
Bid   13.5   379.72
Bid   13.55   28.53
Bid   13.6   53.98
Bid   13.65   75
Bid   13.7   14.06
Bid   13.75   22.13
Bid   13.8   95.93
Bid   13.85   60
Bid   13.9   12
Bid   13.95   0.45
Bid   14   3716.19
Bid   14.05   571.64
Bid   14.1   402.96
Bid   14.15   208.84
Bid   14.2   623.39
Bid   14.25   108.89
Bid   14.3   416.75
Bid   14.35   0.38
Bid   14.4   84.82
Bid   14.45   53.68
Bid   14.5   1201.86
Bid   14.55   169.92
Bid   14.6   89.99
Bid   14.65   3.98
Bid   14.7   58.61
Bid   14.75   29.31
Bid   14.8   255.05
Bid   14.85   36
Bid   14.9   32.73
Bid   14.95   33.31
Bid   15   4197.49
Bid   15.05   530.72
Bid   15.1   3512.55
Bid   15.15   583.4
Bid   15.2   238.61
Bid   15.25   998.02
Bid   15.3   385.55
Bid   15.35   25.16
Bid   15.4   200.45
Bid   15.45   7
Bid   15.5   1567.15
Bid   15.55   1338.62
Bid   15.6   1722.97
Bid   15.65   1762.7
Bid   15.7   136.28
Bid   15.75   127.2
Bid   15.8   460
Bid   15.85   111.9
Bid   15.9   41.05
Bid   15.95   8.05
Bid   16   2158.52
Bid   16.05   174.05
Bid   16.1   514.07
Bid   16.15   377.87
Bid   16.2   294.97
Bid   16.25   85.81
Bid   16.3   454.14
Bid   16.35   1625.29
Bid   16.4   84.9
Bid   16.45   3017.49
Bid   16.5   3455.63
Bid   16.55   365.88
Bid   16.6   4946.73
Bid   16.65   2900.99
Bid   16.7   799.27
Bid   16.75   1552.03
Ask   16.8   1085.64
Ask   16.85   319.41
Ask   16.9   567.99
Ask   16.95   697
Ask   17   1636.62
Ask   17.05   252.1
Ask   17.1   471.11
Ask   17.15   384.21
Ask   17.2   596.76
Ask   17.25   196.27
Ask   17.3   212.28
Ask   17.35   435.3
Ask   17.4   244.38
Ask   17.45   289.37
Ask   17.5   1679.15
Ask   17.55   132.52
Ask   17.6   2248.47
Ask   17.65   32.82
Ask   17.7   252.12
Ask   17.75   501.26
Ask   17.8   646.17
Ask   17.85   13.84
Ask   17.9   741.75
Ask   17.95   169.21
Ask   18   2152.4
Ask   18.05   13.2
Ask   18.1   107.24
Ask   18.15   12.71
Ask   18.2   38.97
Ask   18.25   2
Ask   18.3   53.54
Ask   18.35   78.03
Ask   18.4   150.83
Ask   18.45   36.4
Ask   18.5   1072.15
Ask   18.55   516.53
Ask   18.6   87.16
Ask   18.65   37.1
Ask   18.7   23.5
Ask   18.75   21.72
Ask   18.8   36.52
Ask   18.85   43.34
Ask   18.9   314.11
Ask   18.95   49.38
Ask   19   1353.58
Ask   19.05   1.1
Ask   19.1   198.97
Ask   19.2   41.62
Ask   19.25   44.85
Ask   19.3   100.68
Ask   19.35   2.31
Ask   19.4   29.63
Ask   19.45   30.08
Ask   19.5   531.07
Ask   19.55   10.8
Ask   19.6   217.79
Ask   19.7   93.9
Ask   19.75   1076.15
Ask   19.8   105.54
Ask   19.85   42.12
Ask   19.9   399.39
Ask   19.95   333.8
Ask   20   3050.66
Ask   20.05   10
Ask   20.1   55
Ask   20.15   4
Ask   20.2   10.2
Ask   20.25   10.98
Ask   20.3   2.2
Ask   20.4   4.49
Ask   20.45   189.5
Ask   20.5   213.61
Ask   20.7   12.22
Ask   20.75   200
Ask   20.8   3
Ask   20.85   3.2
Ask   20.9   100.37
Ask   20.95   7.14
Ask   21   1040.39
Ask   21.05   4.66
Ask   21.1   12.15
Ask   21.25   44.41
Ask   21.3   234
Ask   21.35   32
Ask   21.4   21.2
Ask   21.45   30.28
Ask   21.5   11.25
Ask   21.6   3.5
Ask   21.7   1
Ask   21.75   15
Ask   21.8   312.65
Ask   21.85   2
Ask   21.9   15.84
Ask   21.95   25.95
Ask   22   1450.8
Ask   22.1   1
Ask   22.2   10.1
Ask   22.25   0.27
Ask   22.35   4
Ask   22.4   12.5
Ask   22.45   48
Ask   22.5   78.87
Ask   22.6   1000
Ask   22.65   10
Ask   22.7   0.25
Ask   22.8   10
Ask   22.9   15.51
Ask   22.95   107.82
Ask   23   243.18
Ask   23.1   13.76
Ask   23.15   13.16
Ask   23.2   8.6
Ask   23.4   2.5
Ask   23.45   3
Ask   23.5   141.18
Ask   23.55   255
Ask   23.7   17.33
Ask   23.8   39.87
Ask   23.9   423.73
Ask   23.95   183.7
Ask   24   1252.04
Ask   24.1   2
Ask   24.2   1.07
Ask   24.25   1.01
Ask   24.3   330
Ask   24.4   62.29
Ask   24.45   1
Ask   24.5   89.6
Ask   24.55   10.11
Ask   24.7   31
Ask   24.75   2.04
Ask   24.8   32.62
Ask   24.85   24.79
Ask   24.9   109.67
Ask   24.95   28.51
Ask   25   1847.12
Ask   25.1   5.02
Ask   25.15   50


From this you can see that someone wants to pay as little as 12.6 and at the other end someone is asking for 25.15, however we cannot simply take a middle point between these two extremes as we have not taken into account the amounts of coins involved at each price point. Just taking the middle point of the two ends comes to 18.875. Now if we take the volumes into account (ie, for each ask and bid, calculate price * amount and then take the averages) we get the following:

Total price for bid = 816552
Total coins for bid = 52749.21
Average price of bid coin = 15.47989

Now for ask:

Total price for ask = 722584.9
Total coins for ask = 36922.83
Average price for ask coin = 19.57014

The mid point is the average of both prices of coins (ie. 17.52501)

So at the current price of 16.777, they are undervalued and should at least reach 17.525 at some point in the spread. Also notice that there are more requests for coins than are being sold so demand is slightly higher (but not by much). This should put a little pressure on the coins to rise in value over time. So at 16.777, you should buy as you are getting some value (albeit not much). So how do we increase the price? If all sellers would raise their asking price the value of the coins should in theory rise so long as people are willing to buy at the higher price. If not, then eventually sellers would lower their price to shift the coins they hold.

Paul