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41  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 13, 2014, 12:29:58 PM
The Blockchain solution to decentralisation is a broken one, and BTC is not viable as a currency long term (for the reasons posted many times before and that I listed few days ago).
At the same time, it cannot e replaced by a shitcoin that, behind the gimmicky features (being anonymous, slightly faster transaction times,  etc), shares the same fundamental issues.

It will be replaced by something that works in very different ways to avoid the BTC and Blockchain fuck ups.
For one, it will need to be a decentralised network that allows any existing currency or anything else of VALUE (that cannot be double spent) to be "put in the network" easily and in a frictionless way.

Similar protocols exist today (like Ripple), if they won't be the future specifically, something else that works in very similar ways, will.


And I know that you don't wanna hear stuff like this because you wanna get rich quick with the pyramid scheme aspect of Bitcoin... At least don't lie to yourself.

Ripple is not decentralized you nitwit.
Transactions are carried out in a decentralised way (the main idea behind the original satoshi paper, that you don't need a trusted third party), only the distribution of XRP the currency is centralised.

Try again.


Can we please stop talking about ripple? If you think I'm saying with certainty that ripple is the future and BTC will die, you either didn't read my posts or you didn't understand what I said.

If by decentralized you mean by gateways that can and will exert control on your centrally distributed currency, then sure, its decentralized.  Have fun with that.  /s
42  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 13, 2014, 12:21:49 PM
The Blockchain solution to decentralisation is a broken one, and BTC is not viable as a currency long term (for the reasons posted many times before and that I listed few days ago).
At the same time, it cannot e replaced by a shitcoin that, behind the gimmicky features (being anonymous, slightly faster transaction times,  etc), shares the same fundamental issues.

It will be replaced by something that works in very different ways to avoid the BTC and Blockchain fuck ups.
For one, it will need to be a decentralised network that allows any existing currency or anything else of VALUE (that cannot be double spent) to be "put in the network" easily and in a frictionless way.

Similar protocols exist today (like Ripple), if they won't be the future specifically, something else that works in very similar ways, will.


And I know that you don't wanna hear stuff like this because you wanna get rich quick with the pyramid scheme aspect of Bitcoin... At least don't lie to yourself.

Ripple is not decentralized you nitwit.
43  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Reused R values again on: December 08, 2014, 07:24:12 PM
Perhaps blockchain.info (if people still trusts them) can create new addresses for the affected users, post the old-new map, and the "good samaritan" can then transfer the amounts there.

Bottom line, if this guy didn't do it, then someone else would have.  So the fact he revealed it was him is a good samaritan without quotes in my book.  Your idea has merit, blockchain should contact this person and figure out a way.
44  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Reused R values again on: December 08, 2014, 07:12:42 PM
Hello,

there were a large bunch of new broken addresses today (several 100s in one day).  I took the liberty of saving some funds before they got swiped by others.  If you can convince me that they belong to you (signing a message with the address is obviously not enough; the private key is already known),  I will send the funds back.

Look into the file http://johoe.mooo.com/bitcoin/broken.txt, to see whether your address was broken.


Hey johoe,

I'm sure you are aware this was a blockchain.info screwup.  See here http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2onm5r/blockchaininfo_security_disclosure/

If you are willing, as you have stated, please contact blockchain and work with them as they have the info to prove ownership.  I'm certain you would be rewarded.
45  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 06, 2014, 04:40:53 PM
Oh look. Already a new wall at 350. Because no matter what we just have to go down. That apparently is the only thing that counts for traders. We just must go down. No other option. Down down down. Only way to make money.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dCe6e23yIT8
 Cool

Why do you care so much? We'll be up again, sooner or later.

Maybe because we've been going down for a year and i'm tired of it?
Every single rally gets almost instantly stopped with dumps and walls. Every single one of them.
The buying will stop one day. It really will. One day everyone will be like fuck this thing and move on.
Traders don't seem to understand this or simply don't care.


No this will not happen.  I share your frustration, but its just something we longs have to endure, remember there is no easy path.  Look at this rally for instance, this is actually unprecedented (over the last 6 months).  It has been dumped on, but it's the shorts who have thrown in the towel mostly.  A phenomenon not seen in many many months.
46  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Curious Money 20/20 Keynote Lineup? on: November 02, 2014, 04:46:05 PM
Any idea what this is?

Let me elaborate.

Why is the CEO of Western Union on stage with a bloomberg anchor?  The very same anchor that interviewed Bill Gates about bitcoin.

Then followed by paypal, who has been ramping up their bitcoin announcements.

Finally, the Winklevoss twins and it's pretty clear what they would/could be talking about.

it may be nothing, but maybe all three have something important to say for the world of bitcoin. 
47  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Curious Money 20/20 Keynote Lineup? on: November 02, 2014, 08:32:42 AM
I found this curious for obvious reasons...

http://www.money2020.com/assets/Money2020_2014_brochure.pdf

November 3

4:35 Hikmet Ersek (CEO Western Union) and Eric Schatzker (Bloomberg Anchor and Editor at Large)
4:55 Hill Ferguson (CPO Paypal)
5:15 Winklevoss Twins
48  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 30, 2014, 10:41:53 AM
I used to think that BTC will experience at least one more bubble before it's final demise, but it doesn't look like it anymore.

I think that the fall of bitcoin will be caused mainly by one of it's biggest flaws - inefficient new coin creation. The bitcoin network has become too expensive to run, and it needs more and more new money to enter, just to sustain it's value. If not enough new money will enter, then mining will start to eat the dollar value of bitcoin. Some miners are claiming that they will temporary cover the losses and wait for better times to sell. Some of them outright lie to support the positive sentiment and some of them actually can cover their losses for a limited time. This also means that their coins will be accumulating together with their losses. This is only building up to an avalanche where the miners can't cover their losses anymore and they have to sell their coins to whatever the price that they can get. When this happens, then the amount of coins that will be thrown at the market will be large enough to destroy any trust that bitcoin still had left.
Cryptocurrencies will live on, but new and better models will take over that have solved the important problems that bitcoin has.
replace bitcoin with government and miners with banks and you'll be spot on.


I don't care much about anti-government agendas and other expressions of teenage rebellion. I care about finding a practical financial tool, that can be used to develop both the finance and the economy. Bitcoin was the first to show that open-sourced monetary systems can be done, and I am thankful for that. But sadly, bitcoin the currency just isn't advanced enough to be used as a practical tool. The blockchain technology can be used as a practical tool to implement into new and better currencies, and the idea of bitcoin can be used as an source of inspiration for new cryptographic innovations.

Bitcoin the currency itself, is just a slot machine, that is shrouded with virtuous looking illusions. People with gambling problems can create a narrative to their spouses, that they are in fact "investors in an highly innovative technological project". That's the intriguing narrative that gets the permission to use the family's life savings on this "new and world changing project". The sad thing is, that if they can't see how it's really just a slot machine, then they can't also see that the machine is rigged to create profit for the house - the biggest holders of coin, and the people who run the unregulated exchanges. They have the power to raise or lower the price as they see fit, while having private information about their customers trading methods and habits.
A practical currency should be unattractive for speculative play, so gamblers who cause instability would stay away. A practical currency should be attractive to merchants, and without the need of middlemen like BitPay who take profit for offering stability. The technology can be used to make money efficient  and cheap (the cost of maintaining the monetary system). Bitcoin the currency is far from realizing the potential, and as long as the core devs aren't considering changing PoW mining and fixed coin supply, then I just can't see a way for that to change.

i suppose you're calling the 400M of bitcoin VC "dumb money"?  Get real.  Please enlighten us on how to instantaneously create a digital currency with perfect distribution and no volatility in relation to already volatile fiats with automatic 100% merchant adoption and regulation in place.  fiats are speculated upon all the time, get your head out of the us dollars ass.
49  Economy / Speculation / Re: Merchant selling causing price to go down is "largely a myth" on: October 17, 2014, 07:02:26 AM
But it does offset a lot of the buying pressure from coinbase.

At 31:20 he says they offset two thirds of their flow.  So he says one third of flow goes out to exchange or even "other people in the ecosystem".  Is he referring to second market or other private buyers?
50  Economy / Speculation / Re: Merchant selling causing price to go down is "largely a myth" on: October 17, 2014, 06:05:29 AM
They rarely dump coins on exchanges.
Most of their coins are directly sold to Coinbase users.

Yes, exactly, however this idea seems to float around here a lot.  I regularly see people trying to make this argument.  I think if you see one of the largest bitcoin payment processors step up and say the idea is a myth, then i think it should finally settle it.
51  Economy / Speculation / Merchant selling causing price to go down is "largely a myth" on: October 17, 2014, 05:50:33 AM
From today's Coinbase AMA

Start watching at 31:55

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3OWzZSr8Nc&feature=em-uploademail
52  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why the bitcoin price was under so much downward pressure on: October 08, 2014, 07:58:08 PM
I see, please show me proof that EVERY single coin mined is sold on the market.  Coins are sold OTC.

It removes buyers from the visible market, regardless.

You are very active today posting gloom over the forum. How are the shorts burning going?

I don't delete posts and pretty much all the info about my investment is public. I don't short. I don't sell. I don't trade. (Anymore)I have mined must of my coins 2011/2/3. I traded and about doubled them through the April bubble, and then lost about half on a single bad trade (sold at $70, bought back $120)

Since then I lost half through MtGox and altcoin crashes, and firmly hold the rest since September of last year.

Happy?

Well you have my apology. Sorry for your coin losses. I find myself becoming cynical regarding the motivations of posters in this forum the longer I spend here. Might be time for a break!

It's the same for me and I end up being an ass.

As much doom and gloom as I spout, it's as bad for me as it is every other hodler. I just try to be realistic and share my expectations.

As for taking a break, I should probably do the same.  Wink

Nah, just take a deep breath.  The last few months have been tough on us all Smiley
53  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why the bitcoin price was under so much downward pressure on: October 08, 2014, 07:55:47 PM
Bottom line, the whole this much money has to come into the market each day to maintain a given price is just not an accurate predictor of the market in any way.  It's not that simple and I wish people would stop that line of thinking.
54  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why the bitcoin price was under so much downward pressure on: October 08, 2014, 07:39:56 PM
Long term trends are more likely a simple function of supply and demand.  I think it would be prohibitively expensive to try to push it consistently up or down for a long period of time.

3600 Coins are mined each day.  @ $350 a coin that's $1,260,000 each day that needs to come in to the market just to maintain the current price.
If one wants to profit from manipulating the market it does not require long term sustained manipulation up or down.  You can make plenty off short bursts up and down if you know in advance which way it will go requiring a lot less capital.

Why do people keep making this claim?  This assumes every coin generated is sold on the market.

Because it's true. Inflation is very high. Demand is not. Do you think these people won't sell if they fear lower prices are coming? Do you think they don't sell when the price goes up?

It's perfectly reasonable to have 3600 coins sold on the market and the price goes up.  Every coin sold is bought.  It all depends if there is good news that day, and who is motivated more (seller or buyer, market/limit).
55  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why the bitcoin price was under so much downward pressure on: October 08, 2014, 07:30:33 PM
I see, please show me proof that EVERY single coin mined is sold on the market.  Coins are sold OTC.
56  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why the bitcoin price was under so much downward pressure on: October 08, 2014, 07:18:38 PM
Long term trends are more likely a simple function of supply and demand.  I think it would be prohibitively expensive to try to push it consistently up or down for a long period of time.

3600 Coins are mined each day.  @ $350 a coin that's $1,260,000 each day that needs to come in to the market just to maintain the current price.
If one wants to profit from manipulating the market it does not require long term sustained manipulation up or down.  You can make plenty off short bursts up and down if you know in advance which way it will go requiring a lot less capital.

Why do people keep making this claim?  This assumes every coin generated is sold on the market.
57  Economy / Economics / Re: Pantera's new whitepaper on: October 07, 2014, 07:54:16 PM
I found it...

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Currency-Debasement.pdf
58  Economy / Economics / Pantera's new whitepaper on: October 07, 2014, 05:31:05 PM
On Pantera's September Bitcoin Letter the following is stated...

Quote
A new white paper has been added to our website, Currency Debasement. Beginning with the
history of currency debasement, the paper discusses why the U.S. dollar does not have intrinsic
value. It concludes that anything other than paper money would have been a better investment over
the years. Read more…

Does someone have access to the new whitepaper referenced?  You have to be logged in to reach it and you have to be an accredited investor to register?
59  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 06, 2014, 04:51:52 AM
A viable proposal from another thread -

"I've wondered whether the Oct 15 deadline for US income tax might be playing a role. Someone who needed to sell bitcoin to pay 2013 income taxes may have taken the 6-month extension, thinking / hoping that the next bubble would have at least started by now. "

This would really make sense. The whale spent the last few days trying to get the best price possible, and now is left with setting up a wall that will get eaten hopefully in a day or two. Once eaten, it takes a few days to get the cash off of the exchange and off to the IRS.

Seems VERY bullish to me.

How is that bullish?
He means that perhaps this is all just a mistake by a megabullwhale with more bitcoins than sense and that it has nothing to do with the Bitcoin ecosphere.

Kinda - I more mean that someone needs a lot of cash quick - for taxes or whatever - but the market is strong and eating the wall without a huge backlash. Once the wall is gone we'll be back into the 400's with the demand we are seeing. Not sure about the loan idea - maybe that would be smarter? He's selling at a bunch of losses to cover his gains to make an even balance sheet. Report the losses. Rebuy coins. Profit.

This is called a wash sale and is not allowed under tax code.  He has to wait 60 days.
60  Economy / Speculation / Re: Selling into the bid on: October 05, 2014, 09:13:13 AM
You are right from a shallow angle, there isn't enough demand to absorb the selling pressure, therefore the price is declining.  I'm asking further, is this normal sell pressure or someone with a purpose?  Bitcoins have been coming into the system at a rate of 3600 per day for a while now.  Yes, there are more merchants taking Bitcoin, I suppose you could make the argument that the selling pressure is from people spending and the merchants converting to fiat, but I subscribe to the belief that these coins are purchased off the markets.

Take the sell on bitstamp not minutes ago, 400 ($130k) coins straight into the bid.
It's panic and for a good reason.

When we were at $680-$500-$400 (and even more of course months ago) etc anyone just dumping his stash into the bids would have done a perfectly sound move.
If BTC goes to $150-200 (or even lower) for example dumping now is a decent move still.

Also, merchants who accept BTC just market dump on exchanges through BitPay (read their terms in their site), the sell pressure can't get any more direct than this.

You may be right.  Regarding BitPay, I wasn't aware there was direct information how BitPay unloads the BTC the convert to fiat.  Please link the TOS from BitPay where it says exactly how they sell their BTC.
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