|
A pull back to $sub-240 is not only plausible but also healthy. I think we will test $240 today.
|
|
|
|
成功忽悠到许多接盘的。
大底已经形成了，机会都是跌出来的，不抄底还在这说风凉话的人不是缺心眼就是心怀叵测。 懒得跟你们看空的啰嗦了。今年将是比特币实现惊天发展的一年。 现在看来，花街确实是高，是我等俗人不能企及的。对于有价值的东西，从来不是捧高，而是砸到底，然后抄底。 对比特币如此，对石油也是如此。 这一轮石油的暴跌，我估计花街已在底部将远期石油期货，石油公司的股票等石油资产以白菜价尽收囊中了。1年后一轮石油牛市时又是赚得不亦乐乎。 我也想要募点资金去搞搞石油了。 |
|
|
|
It doesn't matter if they dump them. Today's prices would put it at about $700,000 a day needed to absorb those coins dumped. We have currently $17million daily volume. The price is really dependent on whether the other $16mil a day is red or green. The daily supply increase is a small portion.
I just want to stop their stupid brainwashing propaganda by doing a little guesstimate. The sentence of "3600 coins are dumped everyday" appears in all threads when bears are out of reasoning ammo. It is so boring to see this sentence 10 times each day. At least, bears should spend some time and invent some new propaganda to amaze us? Notlampchop is doing a good job. He found out so many interesting old time Chinese posters and translate them into English. That is some solid propaganda work than "3600 coins are dumped everyday". |
|
|
|
If you want my opinion, to me there's no doubt that for anyone who doesn't use margin or stop loss orders on Bitfinex, he will be fine and won't suffer from any possible inside trading because Bitfinex doesn't exist in a vacuum and follows other exchanges.
I don't want any witch hunts and I will delete any sensitive info should anyone dox him. I've no interest in making it about one person, rather I wish to make it about the whole Bitcoin exchange "industry".
Exactly, the industry needs more self-esteem to avoid such things from happening. We heard all sorts of rumors, articles about Chinese exchanges doing the insider trading. It is almost an open secret to everyone. Many show evidences that Chinese exchange owners "got rich quick" by insider trading. Indeed, the "zero fee" policy doesn't reduce their profits, but increase it. Why? Because more accounts are opened, and more valuable information are collected to facilitate their own trading schemes. The really bad thing about Mt. Gox is that MK and willy bot set a bad idol for all the other exchanges that they will mimic this strategy without little to zero shame. The only difference is that Willy bot pumps but Chinese bots dump. |
|
|
|
With monthly conferences and daily VC investments, is the entire money base of the Bitcoin economy seriously worth less than what Apple paid for some headphones?
African Americans support Beats wholeheartedly. There is no bulls or bears among them, they just all love it. For bitcoin players including bulls and bears, we are flighting our civil war day by day. No wonder bitcoins are valued so much less. |
|
|
|
better to buy back my bitcoins?
will we go up soon?
You will get yourself hurt by asking question like this. Many people will try to give you bold answers without any analysis. And many posters are hired by the whales to brainwash newbies like you. Newbies should start his/her journey by reading reliable posts from reliable members. You should define your circle of trust on this forum. |
|
|
|
wow, never was there a more bunch of delusional people than bitcoin longs.
probably 95%+ of miners sell coins immediately.
if they had wanted to speculate on bitcoin they would have just bought bitcoin.
PS love how you describe people who agree with your world view as "savvy".
when winklevoss ETF is denied, bitcoin at under $20 within 6 months, watch.
and yeah inflation is a real big problem for bitcoin when interest has dropped off a cliff.
it takes almost $1 million dollars a day, even at these low prices, just to keep bitcoin where it is, assuming no one is dumping coins. Good luck with that.
I will say 95% miners will do calculation before the selling. Don't expect mine managers to be as stupid as you to "just sell immediately", because they are not dealing with a consumer product that has stable pricing, but instead are dealing with an asset that has volatile pricing. Market timing, risk/reward ratio and cost/profit analysis are always considered by miners. Buying, holding and selling are the three options laying on the mine managers' desks. If oversimplifying is all your bears can do, I can only say bears are NOT that shrewd as they pretend to be. |
|
|
|
Let's assume there are three types of miners existing in the market.
1. Perma-bear miner that doesn't believe in bitcoin at all. They will sell whatever they mined for fiat.
OK. Those guys are dumping. But how much % of them are out there? If they are perm-bear, why not short directly on exchange but enter the business of mining instead?
I will say at most 5% of the miners are perm-bears.
2. Savvy miners that does calculation before any mining/selling activities.
The calculation is easy: if expected return of holding > the interest rate of borrowing, it would be beneficial for miners to borrow fiat, rather than sell bitcoins, to pay for the maintenance.
So if miners can sell at $250 within a year from now, they can generate a 25% more intrinsic return comparing with selling today at around $200. And what is their borrowing cost at the moment? 1% or 2%? Everyone can see through that 25% return is way greater than 1% interest rate, right?
I guess there are 50%-60% savvy miners out there. And they will hold given the low interest rate and the high expected return.
3. Perma-bull miner that totally endorse the potential of bitcoin. They will not sell until bitcoin is widely accepted and price is largely appreciated. They are the remaining 35%-45% out there.
From this guesstimate, you can see NOT ALL 3600 coins are dumped everyday! Miners will do calculation before dumping. Miners can borrow fiat and can wait for a better price to sell (if any). And by reserve selection, bears will not choose to enter the mining business in the first place.
Don't get manipulated by bears' brainwash without your own analysis.
You know why the price hit $200 and still dumping? 10% inflation Miners can borrow fiat and can wait for a better price to sell NO, THEY DON'T DO SUCH RISK THING, most of miners dump immediately, sad fact but you have to take it Only dumb ass who doesn't do any calculation will directly yield to the conclusion. Doing business = taking risk. If the expected return is good, why not take some risks? It is entrepreneurs who opened mines and entrepreneurs have stronger and braver hearts than wonkers like you. |
|
|
|
|
Let's assume there are three types of miners existing in the market.
1. Perma-bear miner that doesn't believe in bitcoin at all. They will sell whatever they mined for fiat.
OK. Those guys are dumping. But how much % of them are out there? If they are perm-bear, why not short directly on exchange but enter the business of mining instead?
I will say at most 5% of the miners are perma-bears.
2. Savvy miners that do calculation before any mining/selling activities.
The calculation is easy: if expected return of holding > the interest rate of borrowing, it would be beneficial for miners to borrow fiat, rather than sell bitcoins, to pay for the maintenance.
So if miners can sell at $250 within a year from now, they can generate a 25% more intrinsic return comparing with selling today at around $200. And what is their borrowing cost at the moment? 1% or 2%? Everyone can see through that 25% return is way greater than 1% interest rate, right?
What if one miner believes that he/she will never see a $250 price within one year from now? Good question, but the answer is simple. If his expectation is that low, he will choose to quit now and will not remain in the business.
So weaker hands are also shaken out in the savvy miners camp. The more stronger hands, the less dumping from this savvy miner group.
I guess there are 50%-60% savvy miners out there. And they will hold given the low interest rate and the high expected return.
3. Perma-bull miners that totally endorse the potential of bitcoin. They will not sell until bitcoin is widely accepted and price is largely appreciated. They are the remaining 35%-45% out there.
From this guesstimate, you can see NOT ALL 3600 coins are dumped everyday! Miners will do calculation before dumping. Miners can borrow fiat and can wait for a better price to sell. And by reserve selection, bears will not choose to enter the mining business in the first place.
Don't get manipulated by bears' brainwash without your own analysis.
|
|
|
|
Tell us again how in your view Vikram Pandit is stupid and ill-informed.
How many bitcoins did he buy? I have no way of knowing that but I am quite certain he did not invest in Coinbase while expecting BTC to tank. Indeed, it is puzzling why Coinbase, of all bitcon companies, is getting so much investment. Perhaps it is going to be more than just a bitcoin payment processor? By the way, tell us again how in your view Warren Buffett is stupid and ill-informed. Also by the way: I still would not dare to guess what will happen to the price of bitcoin in the medium term. There may be another market opening, or there may not be. How would I know? They are trying to do a USD wallet app to compete w PayPal, Google wallet, apple pay. Their business model doesn't rely on solely Bitcoins price There is association indeed. Price is related with confidence and faith. Confidence and faith will impact acceptance. Acceptance will affect the number of wallets opened at coinbase. There is a well connected chain between price and the success of coinbase. Not if they can get their USD wallet out there. Their business model takes fees on transactions. They only lose money if they hold Bitcoin while the price drops. Whether they can get user traction is another story USD wallet is NOT a selling point but a safety hedge for coinbase. |
|
|
|
Tell us again how in your view Vikram Pandit is stupid and ill-informed.
How many bitcoins did he buy? I have no way of knowing that but I am quite certain he did not invest in Coinbase while expecting BTC to tank. Indeed, it is puzzling why Coinbase, of all bitcon companies, is getting so much investment. Perhaps it is going to be more than just a bitcoin payment processor? By the way, tell us again how in your view Warren Buffett is stupid and ill-informed. Also by the way: I still would not dare to guess what will happen to the price of bitcoin in the medium term. There may be another market opening, or there may not be. How would I know? They are trying to do a USD wallet app to compete w PayPal, Google wallet, apple pay. Their business model doesn't rely on solely Bitcoins price There is association indeed. Price is related with confidence and faith. Confidence and faith will impact acceptance. Acceptance will affect the number of wallets opened at coinbase. There is a well connected chain between price and the success of coinbase. |
|
|
|
Tell us again how in your view Vikram Pandit is stupid and ill-informed.
How many bitcoins did he buy? I have no way of knowing that but I am quite certain he did not invest in Coinbase while expecting BTC to tank. Indeed, it is puzzling why Coinbase, of all bitcon companies, is getting so much investment. Perhaps it is going to be more than just a bitcoin payment processor? By the way, tell us again how in your view Warren Buffett is stupid and ill-informed. Also by the way: I still would not dare to guess what will happen to the price of bitcoin in the medium term. There may be another market opening, or there may not be. How would I know? Warren is wrong about many investment. Check his favorite stocks like Tesco, IBM and Coca Cola. He was right to buy out the insurance company years ago, because the premium collected was not actuarial fair to the insurers. And using insurance premium to invest high yield stocks is paying back handsomely in those early days. BTW, richest Chinese billionaire Lee Ka Shing invested real money into Bitcoin companies, why no one mentioned this? It seems our forum is totally controlled by bears. And they brainwash us with selected and biased info only. Some Chinese tweets reveal that not only exchanges are doing insider trading, but they are also hiring writers to post all sorts or bashing and trolling articles to manipulate the price. For example: I don't think notlampchop is searching and posting those Chinese posters in the cultural revolution era for free. He may be one part of the manipulation. Just my 2 cents. |
|
|
|
|
When we are talking about market reaction, we are narrowly minded to consider coins on the exchanges only.
Actually, coins on the exchange are just a minor portion of the entire pie and it suffers from severe manipulation.
To me, the true market reaction is that "if the large amount of coins off the exchanges are being sold by early adopters or not".
So far the answer is NO. And that is the most important market reaction we should keep in mind.
|
|
|
|
中国不解除限制，靠国外的环境，很难大的pump
中国人对比特币届除了贡献了几个无良交易所，黑心烂庄，说谎大V外，基本没什么影响。 对生态圈，交易系统毫无贡献。也没有什么知名的VC来投资startups。 2015年比特币的腾飞主要靠欧美大众还有华尔街，跟中国基本无关。 |
|
|
|
|
NYSE注资了coinbase。这仅仅是开始而已。2015年，华尔街资金进入比特币的大趋势是毋庸置疑的。
我作为从业者，自然认为注资是利好，会提升币价。可是市场已经被严重操控了，在交易所内拥有内鬼的庄家在人为制造暴跌，然后暴力洗盘。
庄家利用图形和市场情绪的趋势，无视基本面的转好，人为地打压币价，大规模地抄底。我们对此也无能为力，但是也很不以为然。庄家能操控一时，不能操控一世。
在暴跌中，我们团队不仅一币未卖，而且一路在收购比特币。买好了就转到线下，绝不借给庄家来做空。我们希望借此为币价尽一点微薄之力吧。而且经过接触，发现欧美这边对比特币感兴趣的富豪还有大公司相当的多，也许是欧美人天性爱冒险，比较积极阳光使然吧。
至于中国投资者对比特币的情绪很多都是被所谓大V和庄家所左右。大V庄家的话你们要反着听。像薛蛮子说瑞波好时，你不应该买，反倒该卖了。像一群大V在1000CNY左右说比特币不如A股时，你不应该割肉卖比特币买A股，反倒是应该买比特币卖A股了。此中教训那些1000CNY时卖比特币，买A股，然后被A股暴跌坑死的人最有感触吧。
|
|
|
|
The price discovered by exchanges will no longer be legitimate and representative.
That's a new one! It's getting better by the minute around here! Congratulations on being more creative with the psychological repression of the cogitive dissonance than most others are. You must have an IQ above average to come up with your own nonsense instead of just repeating that of others! Any letter I wrote to reply your non-sense is a waste of time and dignity. So why are you doing it then? To help do some house keeping for the forum by wiping out the garbage. I can imagine you like this:  You googled many images to pick this one. You are psychologically anchored to this picture, coz most likely it is a self projection of your own image or your close relative's image. |
|
|
|
The price discovered by exchanges will no longer be legitimate and representative.
That's a new one! It's getting better by the minute around here! Congratulations on being more creative with the psychological repression of the cogitive dissonance than most others are. You must have an IQ above average to come up with your own nonsense instead of just repeating that of others! Any letter I wrote to reply your non-sense is a waste of time and dignity. So why are you doing it then? To help do some house keeping for the forum by wiping out the garbage. |
|
|
|
The price discovered by exchanges will no longer be legitimate and representative.
That's a new one! It's getting better by the minute around here! Congratulations on being more creative with the psychological repression of the cogitive dissonance than most others are. You must have an IQ above average to come up with your own nonsense instead of just repeating that of others! Any letter I wrote to reply your non-sense is a waste of my time and dignity. I am already regretting doing so. |
|
|
|
|
If you are true believers of the Bitcoin, here is the ultimate strategy to deal with the Bears:
1. Take your coins off exchanges, store it offline. This way, bears will have no coins to borrow and to short.
2. Use your bitcoins to invest in startups and kickstarters. This way, they create real fundamental value for you.
3. Take international remittance jobs for individuals you known for a competitive friendly fee.
You can create real value out of Bitcoin, rather than being bashed on forum, being ripped off by traders and being sculped by exchanges.
And if you truly want to buy or sell, PM some big whales on the forum and do it privately over the counter.
If we all did this, exchanges will have less and less liquidity and becomes a complete casino. The price discovered by exchanges will no longer be legitimate and representative.
True price of the Bitcoin will then be determined by the cash flows you earned from it.
|
|
|
|
|
It tells us one thing: chasing new highs and new lows are always dangerous.
When momentum loses its steam, reversal will come into play.
For bitcoin, 12H MACD flips into green field, 24H MACD is off its peak and will tap into green soon. Very bullish TA signal I will say.
|
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
