Quietly sitting on the 100 day EMA after rebounding on the 200 day EMA.
It feels like the quite before the storm. Not so many negative signs as before the bounce, that bounce was on relatively high volume and there's still people willing to buy. I wonder how much is the withdrawal problem affecting the price - I'd say quite a lot.
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http://www.bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD.htmlLooking at a 60 day chart (in reference to previous charts), it looks very much like we've just passed the peak of this cycle. I suspect momentum will gather for downward price pressure from here. *cough*  |
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I love how all the bears/bulls come out and act smug right when the price moves their way even it's for a reason none of them anticipated.
The charts were telling everything.  So....  +1 The writing has been on the wall for a long time. While there is always a chance of a breakout, markets tend to be cyclical. Whatever the 'trigger' is to turn the market isn't really important, tbh. |
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It's been like 4 attempts at 100/100+ that have failed. Unless price begins to move up, sells will come.
And they will be met with buys. How else would there be a sell? |
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Quietly sitting on the 100 day EMA after rebounding on the 200 day EMA.
It feels like the quite before the storm. Not so many negative signs as before the bounce, that bounce was on relatively high volume and there's still people willing to buy. I wonder how much is the withdrawal problem affecting the price - I'd say quite a lot.
...
http://www.bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD.htmlLooking at a 60 day chart (in reference to previous charts), it looks very much like we've just passed the peak of this cycle. I suspect momentum will gather for downward price pressure from here. |
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The 2011 bear market was not caused by the bubble pop. I was there, the situation today is profoundly different, you'll have to take my word for it I do not have the time to go in to detail.
Its going up to 180 before we see any dumps worth talking about, I have no doubt.
You said that before the last dump too! |
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Not much longer now. The 12 hour chart is unbelievably bullish. The bears in the low 100s are going to be massacred.
12 hour chart? massacred? really? I agree, everything thing I have is screaming upward, that this is only just the beginning. The short term chart does look like there may be a break out. There is a rising triangle, which is pretty bullish. I'm still not convinced that the breakout will last, but I've bought a chunk of BTC again and may sell into the breakout, should it occur. [It is also painful not holding much BTC. Holding so much fiat feels... dirty!] After seeing how the day has developed, I've sold out again (for about the same price as I bought in!). It still doesn't look like $100 is going to be breached and sustained (or $95 on Bitstamp). |
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Not much longer now. The 12 hour chart is unbelievably bullish. The bears in the low 100s are going to be massacred.
12 hour chart? massacred? really? I agree, everything thing I have is screaming upward, that this is only just the beginning. The short term chart does look like there may be a break out. There is a rising triangle, which is pretty bullish. I'm still not convinced that the breakout will last, but I've bought a chunk of BTC again and may sell into the breakout, should it occur. [It is also painful not holding much BTC. Holding so much fiat feels... dirty!] |
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I picked up a few coins today, sort of as insurance in case we run but also as I just hate not having any Bitcoins, yes, outside of 1 Casascius, I didn't have any! Sitting in pure fiat was too much for me. It is a pretty conflicting state to be in, loving BTC but not liking the current market/price/etc. All or nothing is probably not the smartest anyway. Enough self justification? That said, what I noticed today was some VERY big buyers being unable to manipulate the price any higher. I say manipulate as the slippage was just too much. They were bad businessmen (unless they get a rally started). Probably the same "bad buyer" that stopped a crash below 100 on a Sunday weeks ago. Probably the same guys buying all the way up recently. It really looks like resistance at 100 and a little bit beyond is just too much. On the one hand (me being a HUGE BTC BULL) it was funny to hear crickets after that 5000+ BTC order went through. It felt good to be calm. I thought "It just isn't working anymore. How are they going to unload? How deep are there pockets?" On the other hand, you never know when the public at large buys into the rally. From sentiment on the TA boards/threads, it seems like people want to see us hold over 100 and perhaps even get past 107 or the like. Well, that is going to take a lot more buying than we saw today. And remember, for all those whale buyers we've seen lately, don't forget those whale sellers from before the recent rally. I picked up a few on Saturday for similar 'insurance' reasons, but I sold them off today at a small profit. I still have a handful of BTC remaining, but I felt the need to make a choice and stick with it. Even though I'm very bullish long term, I just don't think we will stay over $100 for any length of time until long after 2013. |
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hihgher highs, higher lows. shortterm uptrend. let's see for how long... 105 should be interesting
I think you need to zoom out a bit!  All I see is a 2nd failed attempt to climb over $100 within the last week. By zooming out, you lose clarity. Just like letters can fog up and look like other letters, when looked at from a distance. Alternatively, you can't see the wood for the trees. |
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hihgher highs, higher lows. shortterm uptrend. let's see for how long... 105 should be interesting
I think you need to zoom out a bit! All I see is a 2nd failed attempt to climb over $100 within the last week. |
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I like my support/resistance lines on the body of the candles, not wicks. We are sitting below 2 resistance lines if that is the case. Interesting to think we might have broken out of a descending triangle, but down and now come back up to meet it. Updated - And look at the negative volume divergences (2) with an up price. That had been a good reversal indicator, but not lately. Also, topping out on RSI.  That's an interesting chart. $100 is definitely a key battle ground and it has psychological meaning. The last bear run broke $100 after the first two tests (May and June) held. Previous support levels often become new levels of resistance. Compound with the highs getting gradually lower (about 155, 135, 115), with this final high barely breaking $100 and it paints an interesting picture. Unless something big happens in the coming week to vault us cleanly over $100, I suspect breaching $100 again for any extended period will be unlikely for quite some time. |
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I sold at around ~75 coming back up, but I haven't bought back in.... Yet.
Snap! I bought at 65 and sold at 75. I should have held on! |
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Yesterday taught me just *how* pathetic my attempts at reading the Bitcoin market are, and *how* irrelevant both TA & common sense are to this market. Trying a new strategy today. Got me some black candles burning on both sides of the monitor, crayons for drawing pentagrams & magikal symbolz, got The Lord's Prayer queued up to loop backwards in Pro Tools. As soon as my cat learns to arch his back & hiss at the chart, i'll be set for a new day of trading  I think you just have to be prepared for nothing to be foolproof. As long as you win most of the time, you're still better off trading than doing nothing (IMO)! |
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Will 90 fall tonight?
It can't keep rising at this rate. I'm sure we will see a retrace of the recent upward move. Sub 80 within 24 hours? |
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i should've bought more
I should have sold later! |
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These negative divergences against rises in price have been VERY VERY accurate indicators of moves down:We have the longest one yet. I'd say the price is really wanting to adjust down but those huge buys with walls changed a bit of the natural movement. Will be interesting to see what happens.  It looks to me like the day traders are moving the price about in the short term, but the swing traders are sitting on the side lines waiting for a stronger signal. We have the price bobbing about within a short range, complete with some big 'show' orders, but nothing has really moved much for 48 hours or so. What will the stronger signal be? Well, I'm standing by my previous position still - sold at 75 (Bitstamp) and plan to buy back in the 60s (say, 66). I still can't see the enthusiasm for a strong upward move at this time, although some bigger movements will come sooner or later. |
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I bought back in at 65 (Bitstamp). 63-64 has been tested 3 times and has held. My guess is that the price will rally for a while now.
A quick update. I sold at just under 75 on Bitstamp yesterday, as there seems to be little in the way of upward momentum. There now seems to be a vague triple bottom and/or downward triangle forming around 70. I suspect selling pressure will break through this and we will push back down towards 65 and possibly lower. I think I will sit on my hands and buy when it feels right, rather than putting an order at this time. There doesn't seem to be much support above 60 on the books and I'm unsure whether 65 would survive another sell off. If only I had done the same. Funny, your numbers matched mine... Thanks for sharing your observations with selling pressure as I haven't been watching much. I have seen the larger blocks in buys stagnate though. And look at this double double reverse bottom descending triangle. What do you all think?   Yup, that illustrates it pretty well I think! "Boobs and Fat Hanging Arm Pattern" - LOL! |
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I bought back in at 65 (Bitstamp). 63-64 has been tested 3 times and has held. My guess is that the price will rally for a while now.
A quick update. I sold at just under 75 on Bitstamp yesterday, as there seems to be little in the way of upward momentum. There now seems to be a vague triple bottom and/or downward triangle forming around 70. I suspect selling pressure will break through this and we will push back down towards 65 and possibly lower. I think I will sit on my hands and buy when it feels right, rather than putting an order at this time. There doesn't seem to be much support above 60 on the books and I'm unsure whether 65 would survive another sell off. |
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Trying to remember: after a corpse bloats & floats to the surface, bobbing all nasty-like around ~69-79, does it keep floating or deflate & eventually sink  What a lovely metaphor! I think the answer is, it usually bobs about three times and then sinks. |
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If people are expecting the price to only fall to $30, we are only about double that now.
How bad would you feel if you had bought at $4 instead of $2 at the end of the last crash? Sure, you would have double the money at $2, but you could have bought in at a lot worse time than $4.
Just saying...
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