I do not think the price movement deserves to be called "stagnating'. one month ago (dec 7 ) we closed at $395. Since then there have been several closes over $460 and a one day drop from $451 to $417. Simply being around $430 for the last  few days is just "circumstance'.

I think we have gone up since the $250-$300 period a little too fast and a little too high so I expect it to be $350ish in another month. That $80 drop (about 20%) should see the word bear replace the words stag and bull

if you look at the first post on this thread the price was $72. That was about 11 lots of 90 days ago. with a current price of $460 then bitcoin has been going up 18.5% compounded per 90 day period.

if my maths are right that would seem to make the latest 90 day period (up 100%) look a little pumped in comparison to the longer term up-trend?

wasn't the drive to $1000 created by the willybot so that when it all came unstuck the price simply went down to around where it might have otherwise have been. ie it was pumped up and collapsed. it did go down on no negative news (other than the thing being a 'have') but I note it also went up to $1000 on no real positive news.  to me the $1000 ATH was just a faster/steeper rise than the current one but otherwise its much the same and that makes me suspicious.

the price has gone from $250 to $450 (up 80%) in just 2 months with no real positive news eg no increased adoption etc.
Does anyone else besides me call that a pump? And after a pump comes dumpy, dumpy, doo.
Let the buyer beware.
 

yes the willybot has been replaced by the yuan-a-bot and now that it has finally created much FOMO with a touch of MMM for good measure so .the price just like dec 2103 is running itself. 500 or even 1000 is possible as we found out in 2013.

party time for others (as I remain staunchly bearish)

'these kind of people' you refer to are I think are small in number. I think they may only number 10,000 -20,000 and on average own less than say 30  bitcoins.
they buy a few more bitcoins when their overall financial position improves a little as they need to alwys be in a psotion so that can afford to "lose' them if it all turns sour. They believe in bitcoin but know there is alot ahead for it  - and yes they may buy back in at say $500 if they see it may be $700 soon. That to them is a better prospect than buying at $250-$300 when the price is static as static is not what they expect from bitcoin.

But overall "these kind of people' are not significant players individually or collectively so they do not move the price - bots do that.

yes lets all rush in any buy and happily forget
....that other posters recently highlighted the operation of bots working hard
....that many exchanges operate insider trading
......that bitcoin bounces down as hard as it bounces up eg 31 to 2, 1100 to 250 

but if you gotta buy you gotta buy. good luck.

I totally agree. its why much of the so called market analysis predicitng price movements has little relationship to what is happening behind the scenes.
people should remember that the ATH of about $1100 was false in that it was concocted. while mt gox has gone other players are still doing the equivalent with the price

No i am still bearish. it is less then a month since the big pump so it take some time to go down properly ie to the $250 type mark. all the current stuff is just "noise''. longer term (ie 2years plus out) buying now at $360 might work out alright for people but if they hold off a bit and they  will be able to get a lot more for their dollars when it is $250-$280 in 6 months time.

there is no need to promote a "buy now" campaign as there are already lots of foolish people pushing the price up at the moment.
but its just a temporary blip on the longer slide back down to the $250-$300 range.
I do not believe i will be one crying later by staying out with the price running around like a chicken with its head just cut off 

if anyone is not bearish short term ie for the next couple of months they need to stop drinking or drug taking as it is leading them down the wrong path. but hey we are all free to choose our paths - mine though does not end with a cliff

we bears are not nervous in fact I am surprised the price has come down to the mid 300s so fast - i thought it might take a 2-4 weeks.
if you look at an alltime chart that shows the willybot high it took about 12 months to hit its bottom at about $250 (about a 75% drop).

So while I think the rate of the decrease will slow we will be low $2xx within 3 months.

Thats not just bearish but also realistic

the bubble has well and truly burst. price cannot hold $400 and in a couple of weeks will not hold $300 and in a couple of months will be low $2xx.
despite what some said on the way up eg that many new people had "discovered' bitcoin it was just the existing people playing around. And if the Chinese were really using it to get around capital controls seriously they would still be doing so ie buying.

yes and then no
yes - we have been going up in the past few days at first 1-2% per day then 3-4% now 10%.
this is not being driven by any real news but by ourselves just punting it up so it may well gone on for a while at even higher % increases
so yes we may well go to $500, $700 or $1000.

but then at some point we will collectively loose our nerve and be down to $200 ish in a few months after the ath.

its what happened when we hopped on the willy bot train and it will happen here again.

and long before willy bot there was a period when we rocketed to $31 and crashed to $2.

rinse and repeat

I also remember 2 days in January when the price went from $265 to $177.

Bitcoin is not always your friend

I am still bearish short term so I will oblige you.

we have gone up $54 since 25 october - about 19%. that is too huge and too fast - its commonly known as a pump

and that on no real change to the bitcoin environment.

so it just will make it worse when we correct back to low $200.

happy?

my reading of late 2013 was that the willy bot massively bubbled the price to about $1000 and when it popped it went all the way down to $177 over about 12 months. seems to me then low $200 after this one is actually optimistic.
unless there is new demand and not just new speculators it has to pop at some point 

can someone tell me the difference between "parabolic rise" and "bubble". to me the first just sounds less potentially frightening but are they not ( with bitcoin at least since 21012) the same thing?

yes for whatever reason buying pressure stopped about $333. Its already down to $318 and nearly the $313 it opened at today. We may see a lot bigger drop than to $300 - as in low 200s as all those that rushed in rush right back out.

the last time the price was above $310 was on 2 Jan 2015 when it was $314. on 14 jan (12 days later) it was $177. you may be right - it may repeat - the current price is clearly getting heated - a week ago it was only $267 - so there will be some sort of reaction soon and it may be nasty