When will the UK trigger Article 50, and in which year will it leave the EU?

Britain voted to leave the European Union at a referendum held 232 days ago, but that referendum in which British voters opted to leave the European Union did not automatically signal the country's exit. That is the job of Article 50, and Britain's negotiations to exit the EU can only begin when Article 50 is formally triggered by the UK.

When will Article 50 be triggered?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-the-uk-trigger-article-50-before-1-july-2017/.

Theresa May finally revealed ahead of her first speech as Prime Minister at the Tory Party Conference that she would trigger Article 50, formally notifying the intention to withdraw, no later than the end of March 2017. And as Telegraph writes, that means Britain should officially leave the EU no later than April 2019. 

Thus, the process of the UK leaving the EU is supposed to take two years but many people believe that it could take longer. The road ahead is unclear. No state has left the European Union before, and the rules for exit, contained in Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon (which became law in December 2009), are brief.



In which year will the UK leave the EU?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/in-which-year-will-the-uk-leave-the-eu/.

The next stage of the Article 50 will see the Brexit bill scrutinized by the House of Lords, where the Government does not have a majority, on Monday, February 20. So, it is likely that Article 50 will be triggered before July, and Fairlay market gives it a high 90% chance. But will the UK leave the EU in 2019? Other Fairlay market gives it a 73% chance.

Or, if the government decides that parliament and public opinion have thoroughly turned against Brexit, the UK could simply go cap in hand to the EU and "ask whether we can just forget the whole thing and remain a member", as it was explained by the fact-checking charity Full Fact. What do you think about all of this?

Will Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF be approved by the SEC on March 11?

Three years ago, the Winklevoss brothers, twins Cameron and Tyler, had filed their first application for a bitcoin ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) called Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust. Investors soon showed keen interest in the Winklevoss ETF but it is still scheduled to be approved by the SEC (the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission).

If this approval happens, this would be the first bitcoin ETF issued by a U.S. entity, and this ETF would trade under the ticker symbol COIN. In October, they also filed amendments to their proposed bitcoin exchange-traded fund, naming State Street (American worldwide financial services holding company) as administrator.

At the start of January, the SEC said it will decide on March 11 whether to approve the COIN. Soon after that Needham & Company (independent investment bank and asset management firm specializing in advisory services and financings for growth companies) put together a report on the prospects of the Winklevoss twins’ proposed ETF.

Will a bitcoin ETF be approved by the SEC by May 1, 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-a-bitcoin-etf-be-approved-by-the-sec-by-may-1-2017/.



According to the report, the positive effect that a bitcoin ETF would have on the price of bitcoin is vastly underappreciated, and the probability of approval is drastically overestimated within the industry (not a surprise as it would, in the first week alone, lead to an influx of $300 million in new investor capital into the bitcoin ecosystem).

Thus, Needham puts the chances of a bitcoin ETF approval in 2017 at below 25 percent. As Bitcoin Magazine notes, due to the nascent nature of the technology as well as the fear, uncertainty and doubt surrounding it, Needham thinks approval of the bitcoin ETF will be too risky a proposition for individuals working at the SEC at this time.

The SEC already had few delays about this decision but it's important to note that the series of possible extensions permitted by law is capped at 240 days from the initial submission date in June 2016. So, March 11 should bring the answer, and what do you think it will be? At the moment, Fairlay market gives this approval only a 23% chance.

Will Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF be approved by the SEC on March 11?

Three years ago, the Winklevoss brothers, twins Cameron and Tyler, had filed their first application for a bitcoin ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) called Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust. Investors soon showed keen interest in the Winklevoss ETF but it is still scheduled to be approved by the SEC (the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission).

If this approval happens, this would be the first bitcoin ETF issued by a U.S. entity, and this ETF would trade under the ticker symbol COIN. In October, they also filed amendments to their proposed bitcoin exchange-traded fund, naming State Street (American worldwide financial services holding company) as administrator.

At the start of January, the SEC said it will decide on March 11 whether to approve the COIN. Soon after that Needham & Company (independent investment bank and asset management firm specializing in advisory services and financings for growth companies) put together a report on the prospects of the Winklevoss twins’ proposed ETF.

Will a bitcoin ETF be approved by the SEC by May 1, 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-a-bitcoin-etf-be-approved-by-the-sec-by-may-1-2017/.



According to the report, the positive effect that a bitcoin ETF would have on the price of bitcoin is vastly underappreciated, and the probability of approval is drastically overestimated within the industry (not a surprise as it would, in the first week alone, lead to an influx of $300 million in new investor capital into the bitcoin ecosystem).

Thus, Needham puts the chances of a bitcoin ETF approval in 2017 at below 25 percent. As Bitcoin Magazine notes, due to the nascent nature of the technology as well as the fear, uncertainty and doubt surrounding it, Needham thinks approval of the bitcoin ETF will be too risky a proposition for individuals working at the SEC at this time.

The SEC already had few delays about this decision but it's important to note that the series of possible extensions permitted by law is capped at 240 days from the initial submission date in June 2016. So, March 11 should bring the answer, and what do you think it will be? At the moment, Fairlay market gives this approval only a 23% chance.

Russian Presidential Election is set for March 2018: Will Vladimir Putin be re-elected?

Yesterday, Russia's main opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, has been found guilty of embezzlement and handed a five-year suspended sentence. This bars him from running for president next year against Vladimir Putin.

So yes, current President Vladimir Putin is eligible to seek re-election at the Russian presidential election that is scheduled to be held on March 11, 2018 for the first round and April 1, 2018 for the potential second round.

Now the only question is will he enter elections and then win them? January 30 polling once again gave him high 65%, with Vladimir Zhirinovsky, who is already confirmed as candidate of Liberal Democratic Party, following with only 10%. Potential Communist Party candidate Gennady Zyuganov is polling with 4%, all others with 1% or less.

Russian Presidential Election
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/russian-presidential-election/.



Besides not entering elections, only thing stopping Putin from winning is some major economic crisis but it's not likely to happen in the following years. So, those who want to use high odds betting against Putin can use rumors that Putin will not enter as they are preparing the new guy, someone like Alexey Dyumin, Governor of Tula Oblast.

There are also many other potential replacements from the ruling United Russia party, those like former President and current Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, or Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov.

With Navalny barred from running, Putin entering or not entering elections will probably decide them. But could it be smart to already bet on anyone but Putin if rumors of him not running are true? You have Fairlay for that.

Russian Presidential Election is set for March 2018: Will Vladimir Putin be re-elected?

Yesterday, Russia's main opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, has been found guilty of embezzlement and handed a five-year suspended sentence. This bars him from running for president next year against Vladimir Putin.

So yes, current President Vladimir Putin is eligible to seek re-election at the Russian presidential election that is scheduled to be held on March 11, 2018 for the first round and April 1, 2018 for the potential second round.

Now the only question is will he enter elections and then win them? January 30 polling once again gave him high 65%, with Vladimir Zhirinovsky, who is already confirmed as candidate of Liberal Democratic Party, following with only 10%. Potential Communist Party candidate Gennady Zyuganov is polling with 4%, all others with 1% or less.

Russian Presidential Election
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/russian-presidential-election/.



Besides not entering elections, only thing stopping Putin from winning is some major economic crisis but it's not likely to happen in the following years. So, those who want to use high odds betting against Putin can use rumors that Putin will not enter as they are preparing the new guy, someone like Alexey Dyumin, Governor of Tula Oblast.

There are also many other potential replacements from the ruling United Russia party, those like former President and current Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, or Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov.

With Navalny barred from running, Putin entering or not entering elections will probably decide them. But could it be smart to already bet on anyone but Putin if rumors of him not running are true? You have Fairlay for that.

Bitfinex's Token (BFX) reached all time price high of $0.84: Will it reach $1 before 2018?

Remember August 2 and Bitfinex Hack? You probably do. Maybe you are even of of the Bitfinex depositor that took a 36% loss, and was credited with an equivalent number of Bitfinex tokens (BFX) representing the dollar value of the loss. Well, if you still have those BFX tokens you can now sell them at $0.84, all time price high.

So, in the start Bitfinex $1 loss granted 1 BFX in return, and it was a long-term idea that Bitfinex attempts to buy back those tokens as close to face value as possible. In August, many didn't think that even $0.5 in return was possible.

But BFX soon started to grow, and after trading within a range of between $0.49 and $0.65 through the end of 2016, the price of BFX has followed a steady, upward trend, rising almost 60% from its recent low of $0.49 in December. And with its current price of $0.83, it looks like BFX could soon reach the magic price of $1.

Will 1 BFX reach 1 USD?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-1-bfx-reach-1-usd/.



As CoinDesk wrote recently, the Bitfinex tokens have enjoyed notable gains lately as investors continue to purchase them in anticipation of later redeeming them for dollars or equity in iFinex Inc, Bitfinex’s parent company.

And in January statement Bitfinex said that it will continue to "expeditiously retire" more tokens via a variety of initiatives going forward. Thus, some think that all the tokens could be 'retired' in 2017, and that means that BFX could reach $1 before 2018. With the recent rise, it could even happen in the following months.

So, what do you think? How soon will BFX reach $1 and could its price go even above $1 before all the tokens are 'retired'? After slow opening, Fairlay market now gives a 85% chance for 1 BFX to reach 1 USD in 2017.

Bitfinex's Token (BFX) reached all time price high of $0.84: Will it reach $1 before 2018?

Remember August 2 and Bitfinex Hack? You probably do. Maybe you are even of of the Bitfinex depositor that took a 36% loss, and was credited with an equivalent number of Bitfinex tokens (BFX) representing the dollar value of the loss. Well, if you still have those BFX tokens you can now sell them at $0.84, all time price high.

So, in the start Bitfinex $1 loss granted 1 BFX in return, and it was a long-term idea that Bitfinex attempts to buy back those tokens as close to face value as possible. In August, many didn't think that even $0.5 in return was possible.

But BFX soon started to grow, and after trading within a range of between $0.49 and $0.65 through the end of 2016, the price of BFX has followed a steady, upward trend, rising almost 60% from its recent low of $0.49 in December. And with its current price of $0.83, it looks like BFX could soon reach the magic price of $1.

Will 1 BFX reach 1 USD?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-1-bfx-reach-1-usd/.



As CoinDesk wrote recently, the Bitfinex tokens have enjoyed notable gains lately as investors continue to purchase them in anticipation of later redeeming them for dollars or equity in iFinex Inc, Bitfinex’s parent company.

And in January statement Bitfinex said that it will continue to "expeditiously retire" more tokens via a variety of initiatives going forward. Thus, some think that all the tokens could be 'retired' in 2017, and that means that BFX could reach $1 before 2018. With the recent rise, it could even happen in the following months.

So, what do you think? How soon will BFX reach $1 and could its price go even above $1 before all the tokens are 'retired'? After slow opening, Fairlay market now gives a 85% chance for 1 BFX to reach 1 USD in 2017.

Far-right party still leading in Dutch polls: Will PVV and Geert Wilders prevail in March 15 General Election?

We already have markets for France’s Presidential Election in April and May, and German Federal Election that is scheduled for September 24 but the set of high-stakes elections that could derail the European Union starts on March 15 with the Dutch General Election. And the far-right Freedom Party (PVV) is leading in the polls.

Leader of PVV is Geert Wilders, who has already called for a Brexit-style referendum on quitting the EU and a ban on immigration from Muslim countries. With this rebellious mood that helped Brexit and Trump, his anti-EU, anti-immigrant and anti-Islam party could take the following election and most seats in the next government.

Dutch General Election - Most Seats
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/dutch-general-election-most-seats/.



However, even if it wins the General Election it is unlikely that the PVV will be part of the next coalition. A broad coalition of other mainstream parties is still likely to shut Wilders and his PVV out. In January, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte ruled out a coalition between his People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and the PVV.

As some of the recent polls showed that Geert Wilders' PVV is set to win 35 of the 76 seats needed to form a coalition government (as the VVD is about to win just 23), there are opinions that Wilders is not too far away from becoming the Dutch Prime Minister. Fairlay market gives a 29% chance for this to happen. What do you think?

Geert Wilders to become Dutch Prime Minister in 2017
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/geert-wilders-to-become-dutch-prime-minister-in-2017/.

Far-right party still leading in Dutch polls: Will PVV and Geert Wilders prevail in March 15 General Election?

We already have markets for France’s Presidential Election in April and May, and German Federal Election that is scheduled for September 24 but the set of high-stakes elections that could derail the European Union starts on March 15 with the Dutch General Election. And the far-right Freedom Party (PVV) is leading in the polls.

Leader of PVV is Geert Wilders, who has already called for a Brexit-style referendum on quitting the EU and a ban on immigration from Muslim countries. With this rebellious mood that helped Brexit and Trump, his anti-EU, anti-immigrant and anti-Islam party could take the following election and most seats in the next government.

Dutch General Election - Most Seats
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/dutch-general-election-most-seats/.



However, even if it wins the General Election it is unlikely that the PVV will be part of the next coalition. A broad coalition of other mainstream parties is still likely to shut Wilders and his PVV out. In January, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte ruled out a coalition between his People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and the PVV.

As some of the recent polls showed that Geert Wilders' PVV is set to win 35 of the 76 seats needed to form a coalition government (as the VVD is about to win just 23), there are opinions that Wilders is not too far away from becoming the Dutch Prime Minister. Fairlay market gives a 29% chance for this to happen. What do you think?

Geert Wilders to become Dutch Prime Minister in 2017
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/geert-wilders-to-become-dutch-prime-minister-in-2017/.

You are right, you bet against the other users, while Fairlay's profit comes from a 2% turnover fee from the winning bets (though there are no fees in the sports betting category). And here is another interesting Bitcoin market for you:


Segregated Witness' political implications: Will SegWit activate before November?

“Bitcoin Unlimited blocks are on the rise while Core block are dropping. #Segwit activation at 95% is not happening anytime soon.“

“If the brilliant "BU Economists" weren't politicking, they'd acknowledge #SegWit would lower fees today & they would push for activation.“

“Angry guys can get a lot done, and a commitment to stick with BU is yet another actor blocking #SegWit activation.“

These are some of the recent tweets regarding Segregated Witness which confirm that SegWit is still controversial due to its political implications for the Bitcoin ecosystem. Could those stop Segregated Witness from activating?

Will SegWit activate before November 1st 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-segwit-activate-before-november-1st-2017/.



But it is not only about 'Bitcoin Core vs Bitcoin Unlimited' as a lot of companies remain undecided on whether or not they should prepare SegWit support. The longer the companies wait, the longer it will take for SegWit activation.

In the meantime, the number of SegWit-enabled blocks discovered on the networks is still around low 25%. Thus, it is a big question can (and if, when) Seg Wit reach 95% support?

And though some people are confident SegWit will activate in March, even November activation is not a sure thing. In fact, Fairlay market gives SegWit only a 37% chance to activate before November.

So, what do you think? Will issues in politics be resolved by hand with those in technology, and will Bitcoin Unlimited supporters and companies stand behind Segregated Witness? Or will SegWit soon become just a part of history?

Segregated Witness' political implications: Will SegWit activate before November?

“Bitcoin Unlimited blocks are on the rise while Core block are dropping. #Segwit activation at 95% is not happening anytime soon.“

“If the brilliant "BU Economists" weren't politicking, they'd acknowledge #SegWit would lower fees today & they would push for activation.“

“Angry guys can get a lot done, and a commitment to stick with BU is yet another actor blocking #SegWit activation.“

These are some of the recent tweets regarding Segregated Witness which confirm that SegWit is still controversial due to its political implications for the Bitcoin ecosystem. Could those stop Segregated Witness from activating?

Will SegWit activate before November 1st 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-segwit-activate-before-november-1st-2017/.



But it is not only about 'Bitcoin Core vs Bitcoin Unlimited' as a lot of companies remain undecided on whether or not they should prepare SegWit support. The longer the companies wait, the longer it will take for SegWit activation.

In the meantime, the number of SegWit-enabled blocks discovered on the networks is still around low 25%. Thus, it is a big question can (and if, when) Seg Wit reach 95% support?

And though some people are confident SegWit will activate in March, even November activation is not a sure thing. In fact, Fairlay market gives SegWit only a 37% chance to activate before November.

So, what do you think? Will issues in politics be resolved by hand with those in technology, and will Bitcoin Unlimited supporters and companies stand behind Segregated Witness? Or will SegWit soon become just a part of history?

German Federal Election: Will CDU/CSU win the most seats, and will Angela Merkel take the fourth term in office?

This year brings few of the high-stakes elections around the European Union that, after Brexit, could bring even greater uncertainty to the bloc. It all starts with the Netherlands’ General Election on March 15, continues with France’s Presidential Election in April and May, and should finish on September 24 with German Federal Election.

Will the end of September bring another term for Chancellor Angela Merkel, or will she be stopped this year?

Merkel to be replaced as Chancellor in 2017
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/merkel-to-be-replaced-as-chancellor-in-2017/.



As France24 wrote recently, the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party and its Bavarian ally, the Christian Social Union or CSU, are widely tipped to win the largest share of seats, handing Chancellor Angela Merkel a fourth term in office. But they are unlikely to match the 42% of votes won in 2013, since the winds of rebellion that have swept across the Western world are also lashing at Europe’s bastion of stability.

Merkel's "open door" refugee policy and a heightened terrorist threat have exposed her to unprecedented criticism, and some surveys showed that support for the right-wing, anti-immigrant, anti-Islam, Eurosceptic AfD (Alternative for Germany) party had soared to more than 15% nationwide. Could they use the following months even better?

But AfD is still the third favorite behind Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), and the Social Democrats (SPD).

German Federal Election - Most Seats
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/german-federal-election-most-seats/.



Angela Merkel surely likes being the German chancellor and she already announced that she will run for a fourth term (she has held the post since 2005) but on Monday she also admitted that she was facing the toughest election campaign of her career, as a shock opinion poll found her party trailing for the first time in almost seven years.

According to the poll for Bild newspaper, Martin Schulz, the former European parliament president and outspoken EU critic, is now leading the race to be Germany’s next leader. His centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) came first with 31 per cent, ahead of Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) on 30 per cent. Thus, Martin Schulz has now emerged as the most serious challenger Angela Merkel has faced in more than a decade in power.

Though Angela Merkel is still Fairlay’s favorite, Schulz is not far behind. So, September 24 will be all but a boring day.

German Federal Election - Next Elected Chancellor
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/german-federal-election-next-elected-chancellor/.

German Federal Election: Will CDU/CSU win the most seats, and will Angela Merkel take the fourth term in office?

This year brings few of the high-stakes elections around the European Union that, after Brexit, could bring even greater uncertainty to the bloc. It all starts with the Netherlands’ General Election on March 15, continues with France’s Presidential Election in April and May, and should finish on September 24 with German Federal Election.

Will the end of September bring another term for Chancellor Angela Merkel, or will she be stopped this year?

Merkel to be replaced as Chancellor in 2017
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/merkel-to-be-replaced-as-chancellor-in-2017/.



As France24 wrote recently, the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party and its Bavarian ally, the Christian Social Union or CSU, are widely tipped to win the largest share of seats, handing Chancellor Angela Merkel a fourth term in office. But they are unlikely to match the 42% of votes won in 2013, since the winds of rebellion that have swept across the Western world are also lashing at Europe’s bastion of stability.

Merkel's "open door" refugee policy and a heightened terrorist threat have exposed her to unprecedented criticism, and some surveys showed that support for the right-wing, anti-immigrant, anti-Islam, Eurosceptic AfD (Alternative for Germany) party had soared to more than 15% nationwide. Could they use the following months even better?

But AfD is still the third favorite behind Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), and the Social Democrats (SPD).

German Federal Election - Most Seats
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/german-federal-election-most-seats/.



Angela Merkel surely likes being the German chancellor and she already announced that she will run for a fourth term (she has held the post since 2005) but on Monday she also admitted that she was facing the toughest election campaign of her career, as a shock opinion poll found her party trailing for the first time in almost seven years.

According to the poll for Bild newspaper, Martin Schulz, the former European parliament president and outspoken EU critic, is now leading the race to be Germany’s next leader. His centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) came first with 31 per cent, ahead of Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) on 30 per cent. Thus, Martin Schulz has now emerged as the most serious challenger Angela Merkel has faced in more than a decade in power.

Though Angela Merkel is still Fairlay’s favorite, Schulz is not far behind. So, September 24 will be all but a boring day.

German Federal Election - Next Elected Chancellor
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/german-federal-election-next-elected-chancellor/.

If $1000 is becoming a support level, can Bitcoin hit $1200, $1300, or even $1400 before April?

Bitcoin prices experienced notable gains in the recent weeks, pushing higher while analysts pointed to the recent improvement in sentiment as the impetus for the increases. Some think that $1000 is becoming a support level, but what will then happen in the next two months?

Bitcoin to top 1200 USD before April 1?
Fairlay market gives it a 57% chance: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-1200-usd-before-april-1/.

Earlier this month, as CoinDesk writes, trader sentiment encountered headwinds when bitcoin’s sharp price volatility motivated the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to intervene and meet with major Chinese exchanges BTCC, Huobi and OKCoin. The startups later eliminated margin trading and began charging trading fees, two developments some have speculated would help reduce volatility.

Bitcoin to top 1300 USD before April 1?
Fairlay market gives it a 33% chance: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-1300-usd-before-april-1/.

However, bitcoin trading volume flooded to no-fee exchanges, which once again raised the question of which trading volume figures were reliable. More recently, traders have become more optimistic, according to several market observers. So, will Bitcoin Price go up even more before April?

Bitcoin to top 1400 USD before April 1?
Fairlay market gives it a 21% chance: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-1400-usd-before-april-1/.

If $1000 is becoming a support level, can Bitcoin hit $1200, $1300, or even $1400 before April?

Bitcoin prices experienced notable gains in the recent weeks, pushing higher while analysts pointed to the recent improvement in sentiment as the impetus for the increases. Some think that $1000 is becoming a support level, but what will then happen in the next two months?

Bitcoin to top 1200 USD before April 1?
Fairlay market gives it a 57% chance: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-1200-usd-before-april-1/.

Earlier this month, as CoinDesk writes, trader sentiment encountered headwinds when bitcoin’s sharp price volatility motivated the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to intervene and meet with major Chinese exchanges BTCC, Huobi and OKCoin. The startups later eliminated margin trading and began charging trading fees, two developments some have speculated would help reduce volatility.

Bitcoin to top 1300 USD before April 1?
Fairlay market gives it a 33% chance: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-1300-usd-before-april-1/.

However, bitcoin trading volume flooded to no-fee exchanges, which once again raised the question of which trading volume figures were reliable. More recently, traders have become more optimistic, according to several market observers. So, will Bitcoin Price go up even more before April?

Bitcoin to top 1400 USD before April 1?
Fairlay market gives it a 21% chance: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-1400-usd-before-april-1/.

Juppe confirms he will not replace scandal-ridden Fillon: Will Emmanuel Macron be the next French President?

Few weeks ago it looked like Francois Fillon will easily become the next French President, but the election has recently been thrown open since allegations that the longstanding centre-right favourite paid his wife and children close to €1m of public money for parliamentary assistance jobs that investigators suspect she did not do.

These days speculation started that Alain Juppe could replace scandal-ridden Fillon who could drop out as the Republicans candidate, but this morning Juppe confirmed on his twitter feed that he stands behind Fillon. As you remember, Juppe was the first favourite on the markets before he lost the Republicans primary in November.

With all of this, the most unpredictable French election in decades picked up pace. So, who will win them?

Next French President, Predict at Fairlay:
https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-2/.

This weekend far-right leader Marion Le Pen published a presidential programme built around putting France first, reclaiming sovereignty from the EU and curbing immigration. And opinion polls still predict Le Pen will win the first round of the two-stage contest in April but be defeated in the May 7 run-off by a mainstream candidate.

And, with Francois Fillon losing all the trust, this mainstream candidate is now centrist Emmanuel Macron. Former Minister of Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs is now given a 46% chance at the newest Fairlay market, with Marine Le Pen at 33%, while Francois Fillon is now given only a 13% chance to become the next French President.

We saw that a lot can change overnight in France, but who will prevail in the end? Macron, Le Pen, someone else?

Juppe confirms he will not replace scandal-ridden Fillon: Will Emmanuel Macron be the next French President?

Few weeks ago it looked like Francois Fillon will easily become the next French President, but the election has recently been thrown open since allegations that the longstanding centre-right favourite paid his wife and children close to €1m of public money for parliamentary assistance jobs that investigators suspect she did not do.

These days speculation started that Alain Juppe could replace scandal-ridden Fillon who could drop out as the Republicans candidate, but this morning Juppe confirmed on his twitter feed that he stands behind Fillon. As you remember, Juppe was the first favourite on the markets before he lost the Republicans primary in November.

With all of this, the most unpredictable French election in decades picked up pace. So, who will win them?

Next French President, Predict at Fairlay:
https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-2/.

This weekend far-right leader Marion Le Pen published a presidential programme built around putting France first, reclaiming sovereignty from the EU and curbing immigration. And opinion polls still predict Le Pen will win the first round of the two-stage contest in April but be defeated in the May 7 run-off by a mainstream candidate.

And, with Francois Fillon losing all the trust, this mainstream candidate is now centrist Emmanuel Macron. Former Minister of Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs is now given a 46% chance at the newest Fairlay market, with Marine Le Pen at 33%, while Francois Fillon is now given only a 13% chance to become the next French President.

We saw that a lot can change overnight in France, but who will prevail in the end? Macron, Le Pen, someone else?

Oscars nominations are here: La La Land has 14, Arrival and Moonlight 8, but who will prevail in the end?

Today La La Land equaled record for the most Oscar nominations, as this beautiful musical continued impressive awards season with 14 nods, and so leveled with current nominee record-holders All About Eve and Titanic. In the end Titanic won 11 Oscars, but how many will La La Land will, and can it complete The Big 4 for Picture, Director, Actor and Actress?

How many of the 'Big 4' Oscars will La La Land win?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/how-many-of-the-big-4-oscars-will-la-la-land-win/.

La La Land is a huge favorite for both Best Picture and Best Director Damien Chazelle, but it is a question can it also win awards for the Best Actor and Best Actress. As for the other movies, Moonlight got eight nominations, the same number as Arrival. But can either of them, or some other movie stop La La Land from winning the Best Picture Award?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Picture
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-picture-1/.

With the six nominations follow Lion and Manchester by the Sea whose director Kenneth Lonergan is the second favorite for the Best Director, and it looks like that only he or Barry Jankins, who directed Moonlight, can stop Damien Chazelle from being the big winner. Or can maybe Best Director Award go to Denis Villeneuve for creating Arrival?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Director
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-director-1/.

Best Actor is one of the categories where La La Land is not amongst the main favorites as its Ryan Gosling in only third favorite at the Fairlay market. By far the biggest favorite is Casey Affleck for his lead role in a drama Manchester by the Sea, while the second favorite is Denzel Washington for the role in his own movie Fences. Who will celebrate in the end?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Actor
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actor-1/.

Emma Stone is the first favorite for the Best Actress, though she is far from the big favorite. The main reason for this is Natalie Portman who was superb portraying Jackie Kennedy. So, who of them will prevail, or could we have a surprise as other nominees are Isabelle Huppert for Elle, Ruth Negga for Loving, and Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Actress
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actress-2/.

Hell or High Water is another movie with six nominations, and its Jeff Bridges is one of the actors who could win the Best Supporting Actor Award. Though Michael Shannon for his role in Nocturnal Animals is ranked high, it looks like this will after all be an easy win for Mahershala Ali and his role in Moonlight. But, could this category bring one of the surprises?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Supporting Actor
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-supporting-actor/.

It is almost the same story for the Best Supporting Actress Award as Viola Davis is the huge favorite for her role in Fences. Michelle Williams, Naomie Harris, Nicole Kidman, and Octavia Spencer were all great in their roles but its rather unlikely that any of them will be awarded. Still, you never know, and thus hurry up to make your own Oscars predictions.

The Oscars 2017 - Best Supporting Actress
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-supporting-actress/.

Oscars nominations are here: La La Land has 14, Arrival and Moonlight 8, but who will prevail in the end?

Today La La Land equaled record for the most Oscar nominations, as this beautiful musical continued impressive awards season with 14 nods, and so leveled with current nominee record-holders All About Eve and Titanic. In the end Titanic won 11 Oscars, but how many will La La Land will, and can it complete The Big 4 for Picture, Director, Actor and Actress?

How many of the 'Big 4' Oscars will La La Land win?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/how-many-of-the-big-4-oscars-will-la-la-land-win/.

La La Land is a huge favorite for both Best Picture and Best Director Damien Chazelle, but it is a question can it also win awards for the Best Actor and Best Actress. As for the other movies, Moonlight got eight nominations, the same number as Arrival. But can either of them, or some other movie stop La La Land from winning the Best Picture Award?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Picture
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-picture-1/.

With the six nominations follow Lion and Manchester by the Sea whose director Kenneth Lonergan is the second favorite for the Best Director, and it looks like that only he or Barry Jankins, who directed Moonlight, can stop Damien Chazelle from being the big winner. Or can maybe Best Director Award go to Denis Villeneuve for creating Arrival?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Director
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-director-1/.

Best Actor is one of the categories where La La Land is not amongst the main favorites as its Ryan Gosling in only third favorite at the Fairlay market. By far the biggest favorite is Casey Affleck for his lead role in a drama Manchester by the Sea, while the second favorite is Denzel Washington for the role in his own movie Fences. Who will celebrate in the end?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Actor
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actor-1/.

Emma Stone is the first favorite for the Best Actress, though she is far from the big favorite. The main reason for this is Natalie Portman who was superb portraying Jackie Kennedy. So, who of them will prevail, or could we have a surprise as other nominees are Isabelle Huppert for Elle, Ruth Negga for Loving, and Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Actress
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actress-2/.

Hell or High Water is another movie with six nominations, and its Jeff Bridges is one of the actors who could win the Best Supporting Actor Award. Though Michael Shannon for his role in Nocturnal Animals is ranked high, it looks like this will after all be an easy win for Mahershala Ali and his role in Moonlight. But, could this category bring one of the surprises?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Supporting Actor
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-supporting-actor/.

It is almost the same story for the Best Supporting Actress Award as Viola Davis is the huge favorite for her role in Fences. Michelle Williams, Naomie Harris, Nicole Kidman, and Octavia Spencer were all great in their roles but its rather unlikely that any of them will be awarded. Still, you never know, and thus hurry up to make your own Oscars predictions.

The Oscars 2017 - Best Supporting Actress
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-supporting-actress/.

Trump has already signed an executive order against Obamacare but will he end Obamacare in 2017?

In one of his first official actions, new President Donald Trump signed an executive order late Friday that directed federal agencies to use their authority to relieve individual Americans, businesses, state governments and others from “burdens” placed on them by the Affordable Care Act, adopted by the term "Obamacare".

As Los Angeles Times writes, the Trump administration and its Republican allies in Congress billed the order as a first step in their push to repeal Obamacare. So, does this mean the new President has scrapped the 2010 healthcare law “on Day One,” as he once promised he would do? Or is this just more talk from the new President?

Will Trump end Obamacare in 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-trump-end-obamacare-in-2017/.

But even if Trump wants to do this, Obamacare cannot be repealed so easily. It can only be repealed by another law, which would require an act of Congress, not just an executive order from the President. That is why congressional Republicans are debating how to craft a new law that could supplant all or part of the one Obama signed in 2010.

So, Republican lawmakers have been struggling with how to fulfill their pledge to repeal the healthcare law, replace it with something else and preserve coverage for the more than 20 million people who rely on it. To do this, they will have to design a path to transition from the current Obamacare system to whatever they come up with.

But, can Trump and his administration do this while preventing the current system from collapsing? Also, can they do this before 2018? Also, note that in order for this Fairlay market to pass, it is enough for Obamacare to be renamed, not just ended. What is your opinion on this, or is it still too soon to predict what will Trump do?