Because they were not the highest peaks in their respective 8 month time periods, they were also not the peaks that "kicked off" the next plateau, it is irrefutable to suggest at least those 3 specific peaks are not almost exactly 240 days apart each, if you really need Ill draw more charts and show you like a child

Regardless, the cool thing about a predictive model is, we can check in 6 months and see if I'm right

Check the Graphs again, I only pick the highest point peak (singular) in an 8 month time segment, and it has always landed within a margin of 25 days (215-240), except the "bitcoin hits 10 cents" thing, and i did miscount 1 (I am somewhat tired)

but 5 times in a row still constitutes a trend

Not to mention 3 times in a row we have seen a double trough trend with an 11-17 day high period between, that is point immediately after crash, then next lowest point after

Did you read? The distance between each high spot in the market is almost exactly 8 months, 5 times in a row

I understand the Gamblers Fallacy, and Im quick to make that distinction

But 5 times in a row is in the very least a trend sir

Edited

FOREWORD-
I was just looking at prices on coinbase today and noticed a certain pattern in how it had moved, I compared it to a previous pattern and that to another one and noticed a definite trend, so I stayed up all night and made this… I hope you enjoy and find it as informative as I did making it, if it interests you feel free to add on the model and make predictions yourself.

For the sake of separating trends I classified each stage of bitcoin growth, when I started I picked the recent peak and the one before that, and so on, all data is from the coinbase chart, so other markets will have varying data but generally the same trends





Incubation Period- “penny stock” growth, resulting in first mainstream attention, crescendo of growth at end
Period Dates- Oct 16, 2010 to Jun 8, 2011
Total 236 Days
Period Growth-29,500%





Birth Period- Large crash, Stabilization period, dollar stock growth, Predictable Pattern begins taking form
Period 1 Dates-
Jun 8, 2011 to Jan 8, 2012
Total: 215 Days
Period 1 Decline- 316%

Period 2 Dates-
Jan 8, 2012 to Aug 16, 2012
Total 222 Days
Period 2 Growth- 89.87%
Period 2 Crash-40.74%
Period 2 Trough A- 11 Days, 24.62% Growth
Period 2 Trough B- 56 Days, 02.90% Growth








Adolescence/ Rapid Growth Period- sustained growth by large factors, each with 2 troughs and period of stabilization or steady growth

Period 1 Duration:
Aug 19, 2012 to Apr 9, 2013
Total: 233 Days
Period 1 Growth- 1,603%
Period 1 Crash- 70.43%
Period 1 Trough A – 17 Days, Growth- 44.11%
Period 1 Trough B- 64 Days, Decline- 31.77%
Period 1 Trough C- 88 days, Growth- 49.28
BP2 to AP1 Bottoms- 750% Growth

Period 2 Duration:
Apr 9, 2013 to Dec 4, 2013
Total 240 days
Period 2 Growth- 398%
Period 2 Crash- 39.49%, second dip total -54.48%
Period 2 Trough A- 11 Days, Decline- 24.78%
Period 2 Trough B- 57 Days, Growth- 14.55%
Total Period 2 Trough 68 Days, Decline 13.83%
Period 1 Bottom to Period 2 crash bottom- 920% Growth

Applying This Model to the Future:
Using patterns and guessing we can predict:
General growth from here until the next plateau, the deepest trough is usually the 1st or 2nd, we will probably not go lower than the deepest trough already sustained at this level.
-   A possible 3rd trough in early May but with a large net growth when compared to the second

The next Bitcoin market peak will be Aug 1, 2014 given 240 days
-   There have been shorter cycles, a 215 Day Model (Shortest Cycle), puts an earliest date of July 7, 2014.
-   Cycles have been trending increased durations, slightly over 240 days could be expected given momentum.
-   The preceding Crash has been trending downward in overall effect, a crash totaling up to *only* 45% off the value at the deepest trough, even just 20-30% given the right outside circumstances
-   The total increase of the future high from the last peak has been decreasing, though I personally think the degree is just an illusion from a slightly skewed peak of 230$ (which shows in the large crash), I think the very conservative numbers say 3,000 USD, several other trends suggest 10,000 USD at the next peak
After the immediate crash a secondary high is expected between an 11-17 day timeframe, followed by another trough
-   A 700-1000 or more % growth might be expected between the Dec 18th Trough and the future deepest trough, leaving that trough at over possibly 5,000 USD at the lowest point.

Things to consider:
-   August 1st, 2014 could be the day they release a bitcoin killer altcoin, obviously by no means does any voodoo guesses I do have any effect on what the market ultimately does
-   These are just my interpretations of the numbers, feel free to draw your own patterns and conclusions
-   Labeling different stages of the bitcoin market cycles helps differentiate the patterns, but also means patterns can of course radically change
-   -Eventually one would expect the growth cycles to start getting farther between ending in a “maturity” phase of slower sustained growth
-   At its core I think this is a good case study into how burgeoning technologies are developed in value over time at a rate almost eerily similar to Moore’s law (every 8 months bitcoin will have increased or decreased based on certain factors given momentum, this value currently seems to be around x10)

Donations of Money Always Appreciated
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If you think they will be doing arbitrage to once again become solvent I suggest you buy some coins for when they open the fund gates

Bitcoin sounds like a name pimps and/or strippers might adopt in the future, Id advise against

Not sure if you read my reply but,
Bottom line- Bitcoin needs to do whatever it will do, if its more fit than its competitors it will thrive, if not it will die, everything in between is natural order

How would you propose steady growth? through a regulation that forces people to adopt bitcoin at a steady rate? that would cause a boom because people would want to be the first to get in while the price is low, and subsequent bust

your asking the impossible, its the nature of this type of growth, core transactors and enthusiasts increase the value, outside forces see a ridiculously quick rising store of value with almost limitless potential, jump in, hyper inflate price, market goes to unstable value, bad news of some sort hits, market crashes and investors panic sell, left with core transactors, enthusiasts and steely nerved investors, market re stabilizes, rinse and repeat

but the booms and busts are in some ways a GOOD thing, better that than a drawn out stagnation

Right, but housing was also fueled by bad lending practices, and housing is apples and oranges compared to bitcoin, a more apt comparison is dutch tulips if you wanted to make it, of course BTC will bubble, its not the top you should look at for BTC health, its the floor, and the floor seems to be doing great by all accounts, the last crash saw the floor at 400+


the lower we can get the fees, the better and more useful microtransactions are as a medium, and the more value that particular coin has, its the market that decides what is needed, and it usually chooses the most efficient route

Some Alt coins are slightly better technically in some ways but more often they are just different, or their advantages also pose disadvantages aswell, SHA-256 could be broken, but so could Scrypt, given enough of a warning it might be possible to switch the community to a different algorithm, but certainly if SHA-256 is cracked not only bitcoin but all Alt coins will suffer horrible PR and marketplace distrust

A niche for micropayments could also certainly open up, Id say it just depends on future fee price progression, how the bitcoin infrastructure is built and how 3rd party service learn to implement functions within those structures, but if a more serious and ready contender for micropayments was currently around we would probably be talking about them and not BTC

Bitcoin wont be the only game in town, but its still the best game, when someone (Zynga, Overstock) wants to begin accepting a digital currency, they dont use dogecoin, they will start with BTC, LTC probably transacts a tiny fraction of what bitcoin does, the media knows BTC, it has a brand value now

Will LTC survive the long run, even flourish? yes, and maybe a 3rd coin, like peercoin, but is it different enough to overtake bitcoin, I'd say no, eventually it will fall by the wayside, because even more than BTC, LTC is currently only a store of value, a hedge with much less base support, propped up more by the success of its competitor than its own use, which is not to say BTC cant be toppled, there just isnt a scheme with clear enough advantages over BTC to take from its momentum

And just because humans have had differing currencies so far doesnt mean things dont change, people didnt have near universal access to free knowledge 100 years ago (internet), we have only just gone to space and got down being able to be anywhere on earth within a day, change is the only constant, fiscal revolution has happened many times before and it will happen more after digital currencies have their reign, being able to use the same money at a starbucks in california and a starbucks in shanghai is a logical progression of advancement

Hi, I do MP to bitcoin trading on another forum, recently my walmart card was suspended for "suspicious activity" and I wasnt able to talk them into lifting the suspension, Im looking for alternatives for trading MP to bitcoin (in a sizeable volume) but I'm not seeing anyway without getting a suspended account from whatever method I use, if someone can give me a good enough answer that can get me trading again Ill give them 1btc for the help, I have a mango card but I'm worried I might get that frozen too (and frozen funds are such a pain in the ass)

thanks for the help guys

thanks

Hi!

tehe tehe

I doubt people would bother with silver or gold in a large enough event, true currency will be food, water, medicine, illicit drugs/alcohol and of course guns

but barring the 6th great extinction bitcoin is the way to go

hour and a half here, need 2 more posts

god I can't wait, Ive been a newbie status for a month because I just lurk and forget to log in for time

congratulations, I hope to ascend one day too

Hi all, happy to be a new member of the forum