So are you saying with all these bids, someone could still crash the market? During the last correction, it was over once we met with these solid bidwalls. What do you think theres some of those guys from the old gox days waiting to dump 100k btc loads all at once?
Did the walls look like this in april before crashing to 50?
bids and asks are really irrelevant in these uncertain times. They are very fluid. |
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Ye woke up and couldnt resist. This consolidation is taking too long and with all the massive bids, its looking too bullish.
If this is a bull trap, well played bears. Ill take my loss and go back in.
CHOO CHOO MF
Did you check the bids before or after I took 25% off of BTC China orderbook? (Yes, feels like a boss  ) "Look at the Chinese buying so many BTC". Ahem. China is now about 65% higher than a week ago. If the ones there that actually have bitcoins, decide to take profits, it can and should fall to <3000. Some of the buying in the west in the last 24 hours has gone to keep the lid on China price and there are still arbitrage opportunities left. It is important that China goes down in daily chart. Agree. The writing's on the wall. Also the perspective from China now is the price is high and this is risky, but easy (albeit small) profits still exist to arbitrage with bitstamp. That's why so many buy orders are appearing there. I know lots of people (including myself) still waiting for wires to clear. The trend will still follow gox, but prices will converge. |
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Am I the only one that thinks this is bearish?
We are still bursting this bubble. China had to come up but didnt. Now its dragging the other exchanges down. Since China was leading most parts of this rally in either direction I think its showing the way once again.
Agree, I think medium term trend is down. In addition, people keep pointing to the media hype. Unfortunately this also works in cycles. Pressure on editors will move to writing contrary viewpoints, or they will move onto other topics for 6 months. |
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Ye woke up and couldnt resist. This consolidation is taking too long and with all the massive bids, its looking too bullish.
If this is a bull trap, well played bears. Ill take my loss and go back in.
CHOO CHOO MF
Did you check the bids before or after I took 25% off of BTC China orderbook? (Yes, feels like a boss ) "Look at the Chinese buying so many BTC". Ahem. |
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And here's why we're not crashing very hard. These bids have all formed in the past day. Throughout this drop, the amount of fiat on btcchina and bitstamp has gone up nearly 100%. bitstamp now has a mtgox-like order book. And then there's the dark orders.  This lets the dumpers get rid of a number of coins. The original pop was achieved with so low volume that there was no possibility to sell in quantity. Reminder: Dump is not only for suppressing the price but also for profiting. Agree. FWIW, I'm seeing more BTC moving than fiat. Very few actually managed to cash out at $900, and Christmas is coming. If this is a bull trap, it could take us back to $750 though -- some people will get to lose their shirts twice. |
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The amount of btc in buy orders on btcchina has nearly doubled in two days. The same thing has happened on other exchanges. Bitstamp went from 7 million dollars to 14 million dollars. btce went from 3.5 million dollars to 6.5 million dollars. Gox is now sitting at 29 million dollars (from 27). Any kind of crash would be met with massive support and not go very deep.
Of course the number has nearly doubled -- the price has nearly halved. That doesn't mean there is more fiat on the order books. It means the buyers have devalued BTC and are only willing to buy lower. The real question is, how will this trend continue? |
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You can't seriously compare China's USD reserves with Bitcoin -- talk about different radars.
1. I think the China angle is a little overstated. China had a lot of (somewhat irrational) velocity coming out of the Silkroad closure, and that prevented a crash and led us into this parabolic rise. Since then they've been pointed to as a reason for the rise in the West. However, the total volume can be discarded as an unknown variable -- we need to know # of users and average volume per user.
A lot of the rise was driven by existing traders and 0% fees, helped in the last few days of the bubble by new incomers. Users increased healthily, but I didn't see much evidence of a "gold rush" all the way through. Actually, mainly since the most recent crash, attention has been huge, due to the media coverage. That said, market penetration in China is still very small -- it's a great opportunity.
2. There were 3 exchanges in China last bubble, and their volume was more reflective of real BTC mindshare at the time. Also bear in mind that a lot of westerners trade on the China exchanges. (You might also find those same people here posting about how Chinese are buying)
3. Tend to disagree. There was lots of press coverage. There is more now, but only in the last few days due to the US hearings, and the price rise. It's certainly not an order of magnitude larger.
Overall I am bullish long term, but we are massively overbought on some false assumptions (there is a China BTC gold rush; there isn't, yet).
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IMO it in everyone's best interest (including manipulators, not including April-style conspiracy theories or 2011-stype Ponzi fears) that we had this major correction, but not for it to be seen as a bubble-pop, in order to make even better profits if/when it really pops once well into the 4-figures. Whether you prefer fiat or BTC, it's surely more beneficial for the correction to end around about the current price, give or take.
You think new money is going to come in after they saw the clear crash that just happened? That, and uncertain dodgy exchanges that hold no certainty in regards to regulatory and legal issues. I think we just need a better platform to trade bitcoins on, that holds no uncertainty in regards to regulation and law, and is operated by reputable people. Sure, some new money will be more careful after stamp's pitfall, but if this is perceived as a correction, not a crash/pop, I expect a huge influx of new money nonetheless $900 to $400 is a bubble pop. Period. It's not a healthy correction. It's not a consolidation. It is exactly what I've been talking about. The WORST thing that can happen to Bitcoin. I posted on FB the other day "Bitcoin on the rise about to break $800" huge amount of comments all similar to "wow, awesome, congrats". Then the emails start pouring in. Questions, thoughts, what, how, where. Today I wake up to those same people saying "man I'm glad I sat that out, dude do you want to cut your wrists or what, glad I didn't throw any money in is lose half and still be losing" The people on this forum are bitcoiners. The people in the real world are not. They don't give a shit about the technology, they don't believe bitcoins will replace their fiat currency, the only thing they see it as is something they can invest in and every time we start to see some solid new money come in everyone starts speculating and the whales start taking advantage. The only thing people currently see and are talking about "Bitcoin crashes yet again, and costs investors billions". Wake up people. For people who are so smart, your pretty dumb to try and fool yourself and others that this is healthy and just a nice correction/consolidation. Thanks for the bullshit. I'm going to quote this one for posterity, let's see in a few days how silly you look right now. $900 to $400 (or $453 whatever) is a perfectly normal correction after a crazy double exponential rise from $440 to $900 in only 2 days. That was just insane, and we needed to be put back down on earth. So a retracement to those levels or even a bit lower is perfectly normal. There are still many people waiting on the sidelines to get in but didn't want to buy during this crazy run up, now after this correction they are finally taking their positions to get in so fasten your seatbelts because this ride is far from over yet.  We've only been above $400 for a few short days. The correction isn't over. |
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China futures are at Y3089 and falling.
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EMAs just crossed on 4H timescale.
Bots going to wake up and sell?
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513 already at stamp
Chinese arbitraging. How do Chinese put fiat on Bitstamp? Send wires. Every chinese national is entitled to $50k / year conversion. Wires don't work on Bitstamp. I have a wire of 3k€ lost somewhere in the Internet. Me too, nearly $20k missing. They're having "bank trouble" |
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513 already at stamp
Chinese arbitraging. How do Chinese put fiat on Bitstamp? Send wires. Every chinese national is entitled to $50k / year conversion. |
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513 already at stamp
Chinese arbitraging. |
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Chinese forming a beautiful high-volume bottom at 4100 yuan.
The wall at 4000 keeps its strength. But you know that 4 sounds like "death" in Chinese, and that this a crash that will take us below the previous ATH.
I sometimes wonder how much better I would be at day-trading if I stayed the hell out of bitcointalk.
China futures at Y3316.17 |
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There has been 2,5 days that the price has been higher than now. How the fuck can you people be all bear all the sudden? How happy you would have been 1,5 days ago if you could have bought coins at these cheap prices? Well, THE TREND IS NOT BROKEN, you can still buy your cheap coins.
EDIT. apparently someone listened to me at stamp =)
Why are people so eager to call a bottom? As you say, it's only been 1.5 days. I'm not calling the bottom I'm just saying that the trend is not reversed yet. It can brake important supports, but It's not likely because it didn't do it already. See previous crashes on this market and you get what I mean. Whoever is on the dumping side, will keep on dumping until (a) people stop buying back because they are out of ammo; or (b) they run out of ammo themselves. The question is: "Do you feel lucky?" People are buying back, thats the idea of support levels. And the dumper, if they still have ammo, will profit more. |
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I am a bit nervous about the way the price goes down, it starts to look erratic on Gox IMO.
I placed my buy order ay 80$, just in case there's a 100k dump till morning, so I can sleep well.
Did you expect it to go down in an orderly manner? Lol If you would have looked at the charts from April and June, then you would know that Gox performs capitulation in a certain manner, with certain wave shapes. I studied them, but these new ones look erratic. "Capitulation" means "surrender". As in, completely broken, no will to live any more. Finally give in and sell despondently. It refers to the very bottom. It's misused on this forum. |
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There has been 2,5 days that the price has been higher than now. How the fuck can you people be all bear all the sudden? How happy you would have been 1,5 days ago if you could have bought coins at these cheap prices? Well, THE TREND IS NOT BROKEN, you can still buy your cheap coins.
EDIT. apparently someone listened to me at stamp =)
Why are people so eager to call a bottom? As you say, it's only been 1.5 days. I'm not calling the bottom I'm just saying that the trend is not reversed yet. It can brake important supports, but It's not likely because it didn't do it already. See previous crashes on this market and you get what I mean. Whoever is on the dumping side, will keep on dumping until (a) people stop buying back because they are out of ammo; or (b) they run out of ammo themselves. The question is: "Do you feel lucky?" |
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There has been 2,5 days that the price has been higher than now. How the fuck can you people be all bear all the sudden? How happy you would have been 1,5 days ago if you could have bought coins at these cheap prices? Well, THE TREND IS NOT BROKEN, you can still buy your cheap coins.
EDIT. apparently someone listened to me at stamp =)
Why are people so eager to call a bottom? As you say, it's only been 1.5 days. |
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