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I trust my own analysis of charts but nobody else's.
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How does this affect us? That's like mentioning that people use SHA256.
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Typically in stocks investors dont need to sell to make a profit and they take dividends instead. I dont know how this works with bitcoin though (other than selling forks). You can also use blue chip stocks as collateral for loans.
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Trading means you time the market and plan in advance to have both an entry and exit, possibly multiple times.
Investing means you pick something with very good fundemantals and you enter into a permanent long term hold. The only time you sell is if you get confirmed news that the underlying is failing.
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There is the distinct possibility that btc could be at $1K for 6 years
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Candlestick patterns dont really mean anything in bitcoin. Candlestick patterns are useful in forex when you dont have a volume indicator to work with
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I dont see how daytrading is gambling if I've identified a bitcoin chart pattern that is going to yield me a 30% profit 95% of time and yield me a 2% loss the other 5% of the time. It's more like picking bills off of a free money tree.
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Another major mistake I see traders make, is looking for patterns in 1,5,15m charts. Those are just noise most of the time. It really bothers me how many people see "triangles", channels in a 1m chart. This is absurd.
No these are the most profitable timeframes to trade on a high volume day. Why make a 50% profit once when you can make it 6 times? If you're not watching that 1m you're going to miss that huge instantaneous jump and the price for you to buy will be 25% higher. |
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Trying to call a H&S in advance is a pointless crapshoot. Usually it turns into something else besides a H&S.
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Ill analyze gambling vs poker vs trading in three different dimensions
-1: House edge and winning odds-
A. Gambling: The house has a fixed edge of 10% or so, there is no skill, and you will always lose in the long run
B. Poker: The house still has an edge of 10% via the rake, but you are playing other players so if you are 10% better than other players (or 20% depending on the maths here), then you will win in the long run. Its very hard to get this kind of skill but its possible.
C. Trading: The house has a rake of 0.4% via commissions, and the game is based on skill. So its much easier to beat the game than poker if you are only 0.4% better than the other players.
-2: Risk-
A. Gambling: Typically betting 100% of your money which can be instantly lost
B. Poker: Typically bettering 100% of your money which can be instantly lost
C: Trading: Uness you are using margin, the loss is rarely 100%. A typical crypto loss is around 5-10%. On the worst of days, bitcoin goes down maybe 50% before having a hard rebound and if you have patience you wont even need to take that loss. You control your risk. You can set stop losses, you can catch rebounds. A good trader only takes losses of less than 1-5%, and makes wins of 50%+. Youd have to be in dozens of these losing trades in a row to lose your money.
-3: Bitcoin X factor -
Bitcoin has historically been in a bull market. Even with the 'rake' and even as a bad trader, the odds are always highly in favor of investors. Its still a zero sum game but the people who pay are going to be the big time investors that buy at the very top of $1M (or maybe it was $20K). So if all you do is make long trades, it is very hard to lose fiat (but easy to lose coins). This of course will no longer be the case once bitcoin finally fails.
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You forgot #3 - shuts down and runs with all your money
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To me the normal price is $400, because I watched it around there for like years. I dont know what these new crazy high prices are.
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I still see 13k happening before it crashes
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Who are these "Experts" and what makes them experts or more qualified than any of us here who actually have a long history with bitcoin and a track record of good trades?
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Its different in bitcoin because its in a constant bull market.
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Can you imagine if btc reaches $1,000,000 and it still crashes to $200,000 and rebounds to $700,000 etc
TERA, what is your opinion on this market? IIRC, *(1)* you are bearish, and believe we are heading back down to $3000-ish levels, is that correct? Your past analysis has been quite accurate, and you have as much experience in this market as anyone else, in addition to your experience in traditional markets. (I am not a new member of this forum - my account is locked) *(2)* You also did claim a rise to 13k, which has not materialized, and although many bears are clamoring for a price drop right now, you seem to think you still have a few weeks time before things start getting bad. Could you give a general overview of your prediction of the price in the next month? As for the price volatility at that level - of course it's possible. Just multiply the USD supply by 10 or 50. That's probably going to happen at some point. Maybe in the not-so-far future. So far a rise to about 12K has materialized which is pretty close and there could still be another leg up. Afterwards, a slow grind like 2011, 2014. 3K would be a good final bottom for the bear market if things were to remain bullish for another ATH at the next halvening. I'm not at all sure about the long game though. |
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Can you imagine if btc reaches $1,000,000 and it still crashes to $200,000 and rebounds to $700,000 etc
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