The amount of btc in buy orders on btcchina has nearly doubled in two days. The same thing has happened on other exchanges. Bitstamp went from 7 million dollars to 14 million dollars. btce went from 3.5 million dollars to 6.5 million dollars. Gox is now sitting at 29 million dollars (from 27). Any kind of crash would be met with massive support and not go very deep.

China is participating in their own way:



This number has nearly doubled since the crash.

It's not how high it goes but how fast it gets there and when the last test of a daily ema was. The crashes only happen after a huge daily gain and usually when a test hasn't been done in a while. 900 the other day was an obvious sell. But if the price built slowly up to 900, with corrections, then it would not be.

You can also look at blockchain.info to see when large amounts of coins are being transferred but you're still left guessing as to exactly when the coins will be sold.

And here's why we're not crashing very hard. These bids have all formed in the past day. Throughout this drop, the amount of fiat on btcchina and bitstamp has gone up nearly 100%. bitstamp now has a mtgox-like order book. And then there's the dark orders.

I think bears might be out of luck if we're hoping for some massive april-like capitulation drop to $300. There is just too much horsepower now and too many exchanges involved. These bids have all formed in the past day...  And then there's the 500, 750, etc dark orders on bitfinex.

4 hour chart going DOWN  , its bear time.

Despite the bubble poppage, there is massive bid depth building across the exchanges. Bitstamp now has 10m USD (up from 700k in the summer and 6m just the other day). BT China now has 55m CNY (up from 5m at the beginning of the rally). I don't know what to make of it. My instinct from April, looking at the asks, and the h4 emas, is to sell because its probably capitulating into 300. But then I look at these new bids and I just don't think its safe. What do you think?

$500 is the new $100. Bitcoin will have crashes below and rallies above $500 for the next 6 months until the next bubble.

That trendline is faster than exponential. It is actually the tallest of three new trendlines that we have seen this year.

July trendline: Somewhat fast but reasonable continuation of march, leading to a breakout. This could be considered a hard support and representative of the actual growth happening with bitcoin.

October trendline: Once we broke out from $150, this became the new trendline, which seemed insanely fast at the time. We knew we were leading into a bubble at this point. This trendline is perhaps representative of the growth occuring with China/Bitstamp/etc, though it is pretty fast. It MIGHT become our support after this collapse and for 2014.

November trendline: Once $266 broke, the price went ballistic and started following this new trendline. It looks completely vertical on a logarithmic chart and cannot be sustained. This is the trendline in the picture you posted. We are definitely going to break it at some point. The question is is that happening now or somewhere down the line. If it holds, it will only serve to prolong the bubble further to $1400 or so before an even larger and more devestating collapse.

That wall on btcchina at 4000 keeps getting smaller and smaller and eclipsed by the sell orders. When it breaks who knows where itll go.

Right now people are clinging for dear life onto the crazy november trendline. I guess when that breaks.. we go to the october trendline? That would be around $300.

Have we officially gone now from correction to full blown bubble collapse?

Bumping my thread for reference.

Bitcoin has only ever been at this price today and yesterday. How can you call it cheap?

The other day's correction was a low volume correction. This is a HIGH VOLUME correction.

Oh when I think of panic selling I think of traders seeing the price drop and then impulsively selling. Not whales moving around massive amounts of coins beforehand to do premeditated dumping.

No it's not panic selling