Interesting take. I'd like to know what you think is different now vs. the last 12 years of btc. Because if nothings different, halving will have a compounding effect on supply to buy over time and assuming demand remains constant, we will see another multi-year bull market.
That would be true if BTC wasn't being traded on exchanges in form of futures and spot orders the way it is now, we have a trading volume of 200k btc a day sometimes and that's pretty normal, how much did the halving cut down? 1800/2 = 900 BTC a day , what is 900 BTC vs 200,000 BTC in volume? almost nothing. Another way to look at it is by taking the total supply in circulation, we have over 18 million of them ( some could have been lost but that doesn't matter, they are there and thus they can be spent) So you are cutting 900 BTC a day, or 328,500 a year, when the supply, is 18m, that's a bit below 2%, so one could argue that the halving could give bitcoin 2% more fiat value a year if everything else is equal! The halving is a great way of deflating the supply speed/rate, but it was not invented to magically take the price to higher levels the way most people think, in fact even if the halving got rid of 50% of the supply in circulation, with demand being constant, bitcoin would only double once, but bitcoin doesn't gain value because of the halving, if the market is going up, it will go up with or without the halving, the same thing will happen on the way down, the halving is more of a psychological event to most people than anything to do with the supply and demand. In other words, almost nearly 90% of bitcoin max supply is already there, the effect of the remaining of 10% is pretty minimal, mathematically speaking, even if the remaining 10% were mined in the course of a month wouldn't make a huge difference in terms of price, I believe the way satoshi implemented this, is to keep the incentive for miners for long enough until the blockchain has matured and can survive on fees. |
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@Stryfe, I understand your question, it's a legit one, the way you asked it was not perfect IMO, hence the replies you got  , but by all means, the question is pretty legit. Let me give you a different answer, running a solo pool is not profitable, the proof is even antpool stopped their solo pool last year, who else would we trust ? the only alternative I can think of would be bsod.pw, i had a few (none btc) blocks that were paid, sadly no BTC block was ever found by them, so hard to know if their BTC solo even works, the other options are pretty hard to trust. Mining solo is risky, the pool can lie to you about anything, it would be hard to prove anything against them, so you need to trust the pool operator, for obvious reasons most of us trust CK, now regardless of how much BTC he owns, why would he run a losing business? no incentives to do that, if I was him, I would shut the pool down, but we suggested that maybe we can donate to keep the pool up and running and he agreed, so we actually pay to get a decent solo pool which is owned by a trusted person who will not steal the block and say oh sorry something went wrong, go figure. This is more like supply and demand, if we had a better option, nobody would have bothered with the pool going offline, but since this is a great pool which we all love, we decided to keep it alive, so miners are happy and CK is happy, all good. |
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... and do you release source code for the miner in your release as you are required to do, or do you violate the cgminer license like everyone else around here that includes cgminer/bmminer in their firmware?
He did not develop a FIRMWARE, it is merely software that uses the webpage commands to alter fan speed, mining frequency and voltage and all that, non of these functions have to do with cgminer license, in fact whatever this software promises to do can be done manually from the web browser without even knowing about the existence of cgminer in the first place, in other words this software is an improvement of the browser GUI just like Awesomeminer. |
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I don't think such command exists, your only way would be checking the kernel log, especially the part where it shows finding asics on each chain, the only problem with this method is that hashboars showing 0 asics might be plugged and toasted or simply don't exists which could give you a false positive/negative, but there is probably another part in the kernel log that shows more details, let me know what gear do you have (s9, i,j,k) i i will try to look for clues in the kernel.
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SURPRISE
You've all been transparently migrated to the new server without any interruption
Well done CK, sadly the server seems a bit too far from my location, ping results are bad, ran a longer ping -t and had a 1% packet loss.  here is the traceroute  Hop 10 to 11 (EU to US) is a long way  . These numbers are not exactly bad with the general use of the internet, with mining that could be a lot, or is that ok? |
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نعم صحيح stale يعني مرفوض, معدل 2% يعتبر طبيعي, يمكن محاولة تحسينه فمثلا ان كنت عامل overclock نقص قليلا, تأكد من جودة الانترنت التي تستخدمه للتعدين, قم بتجربة حوض اخر لفترة اسبوع ولاحظ ان كان هناك هي تحسن, قد تلاحظ تحسن واضح بتغير حوض التعدين ليس لان الحوض الاول سيء بل احياني المسافة بينك وبين الحوض تكون بعيدة ويحدث packet loss وغيرها من المشاكل, مع هدا 2% ليست بالشيء السيء ابداء ولكن كما ذكرت يمكن تحسينها ان كنت ترا ان الموضوع يستحق العناء.
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هذا ما كنت اتساءل عنه أخي ميكي " الجدوى الاقتصادية" يعني مثلا كم ستكلف هذه الأجهزةالتي سيتم توصيلها إلى كل شخص ليقوم بالتعدين عن طريق أنشطة الدماغ؟ وهل ثمن العملات المشفرة الناتجة عن التعدين بهذه الطريقة كافية لتغطي نفقات تكاليف هذه الأجهزة وصيانتها على المدى البعيد؟
بصراحة اكذب عليك ان قلت اني مطلع على الموضوع بالتفصيل الدقيق لاعطيك ارقام دقيقة بخصوصه, ولكن الموضوع بالنسبة لي ثماما مثل علم الفضاء, هل يوجد اي جدوى اقتصادية من ارسال رواد الفضاء والمركبات الفضائية الى القمر ومحاولة الوصول الى الكواكب الاخرى؟ لا يوجد على المدى القصير والمتوسط ولكن ربما عندما يكون هناك تغير جدري في الموازين قد يكون لها جدوى اقتصادية افضل بكثير مما نعتقده نحن, الموضوع ايضا شبيه بالهواتف الدكية التي يمكنها تعدين العملات مثل التي تكلمنا عنه الفترة الماضية, اعتقد ان هده الاختراغات هي عبارة عن فتح باب واسع في مجال التعدين والتشفير بصفة عامة, ولكن نجاحها من عدمه يعتمد على الكثير من المعطيات التي لا نعلمها اصلا, وجهة نظري محدودة جدا ومبنية على ما اعرفه واراه, يعني short sighted ان صح التعبير, بالتأكيد من يصرف الملاين على هده الاختراعات لديه وجهة نظر مختلفة ويرا انها ستنجح وستحقق عائد اقتصادي جيد في المستقبل. |
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I feel a little bit ashamed that i'm not also pay 0.01 right know for the server. But i will do so, as soon as possible  Thanks for showing support, by the way, 0.01 BTC is not the minimum amount for donations, people should send what they can afford, 1$ 10$ anything they are willing to contribute with and if someone is worried about the network fees, put 1-2 sats per byte and let the order sit there for days, no rush, we did cover the first 6 months for the server, I believe we should also pay the extra 6 months and CK got once funds reach the threshold again, with that being said even those who can't or don't want to donate can still use the pool, don't be ashamed, mine on. |
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لايوجد حوض افضل اخر فيما يتعلق بالربح عند تجاهل العوامل الواضحة مثل ان الحوض "نصاب" او عمولته غالية للحوض, بالمجمل حوض Ethermine يعتبر من افضل الاحواض من ناحية التبات والمصداقية, المهم هوا ان يكون ال average accepted hash rate مساوي للقراءة التي امامك على PhoenixMiner او بما لايقل عن 1-2% باعتبار ان بعض الهاش ريت يكون Rejected او Stale او نظرا لانقطاعات في الانترنت عندك, ولكن طالما ان الهاش مقارب للارقام التي لديك والدفعات تأتي بدون مشاكل, لا انصحك بتغير الحوض.
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عمليا الموضوع ممكن جدا, التعدين عبارة عن شحنة كهرباء تمر في مجال معين عند مرور تلك الشحنة يتولد ال hash , يعني بدون الخوض في تفاصيل المقال الامر وارد جدا, المشكلة تكمن في الجدوى الاقتصادية لمثل هده المواضيع, وكيف سيتم تكيف تلك الاجهزة للعمل باعلى سرعة ممكنة نظرا لان الطاقة المولدة من ادمغتنا بهده الطريقة تعتبر قليلة جدا , بالرغم من ان كلمة قليلة تعتبر نسبية, يعني سرعة 1b/s اليوم في التعدين لاتساوي شي تقريبا, ولكن هدا استنادا لحجم سوق الكريبتو الصغير نسبيا, ولكن تخيل ان كل شي حولنا تحول الى كريبتو وبلوك تشين واصبح حجم هدا السوق بالترليونات؟ عندها يصبح كل هاش لهو قيمة, رمبا نرا مصباح انارة يعدن الكريبتو, تلاجة, غسالة ملابس و و و, الامر كله مرتبط بمدى فعالية هده الاشياء والتي هي مرتبطة بالاصل بحجم السوق ومدى قيمة الهاش فيه.
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One small thing to remember: Difficulty falls more slowly than it rises. Since the epoch is always 2016 blocks, if it comes in at less than 14 days, difficulty rises, If it takes longer than 14 days, then difficulty falls. What this means is that a larger decline will take longer to actually realize.
That is true in regards to the actual difficulty adjustment, but we are discussing something slightly different, the fact that the "base" of finding blocks isn't declining indicates hashrate has not left the network, and thus it won't be more than 14 days for the adjustment, However, now I can see a slight drop in the speed of finding blocks, unfortunately with 1290 blocks have already been mined, this small drop won't really cause any drop in difficulty for the next epoch. |
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I have a feeling it's something buggy in the firmware the fact that every other pool is rejecting the shares but antpool accepts them I can't work this out.
If it works well with antpool then it can't be a network issue or anything else, it's most certainly in the firmware itself, maybe get the stock firmware from someone who has it or any different version from the one that is causing the issue, I am not aware of any trusted custom firmware that works on this particular miner but my guess is that if you look around you might find something. One last thing to try would be the Asicboost statrum on Nicehash, the miner might interact differently with that, give it a go. |
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I had a little discussion with some guys on telegram, and someone pointed out something very interesting, a bit obvious but completely forgotten, many large scale miners mine on contacts, they pay the bill upfront, while the contract is still valid, they would mine on even at what we call a loss, because to them that is not exactly a"loss", and they can't avoid it anyway.
With that being said, it's safe to assume that a good portion of the low-efficiency miners are still on, this also explains why we don't see people flooding the market with those gears, everyone seems to be calm, nobody is rushing to sell anything, so it's either you are stuck in a contract or refusing to give up and hope that the others will leave and you become profitable, so things right now could be pointing to the fact that phill is right, without a huge spike in the price we will drop badly, but I don't think that will happen overnight anymore, it will be like walking down the stairs, farm x shuts down after tomorrow, farm y three days later and so on, the process might take a few weeks to get us to that 15-30% drop in hashrate.
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Blocks after 630 000 have an average ~12 mins between them...
Where did you get this data from? Below is the timestamps of blocks 526591 to 630172 2020-05-13 00:19
2020-05-13 00:06
2020-05-13 00:00
2020-05-12 23:55
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2018-06-08 14:52
The average time (Ignoring seconds since blockchair.com doesn't show them) is exactly 10 minutes, which explains exactly why https://diff.cryptothis.com/ still shows Next Difficulty Change: between +3.7027% and +4.4993%
Almost the exact same figures prior to the halving, so we were mining 3-4% more blocks, and now we are back to the normal hashrate of where we started this epoch, in plain English, no drop in hashrate yet, which is freaking strange. I checked the Chinese market to see if re-sellers are dropping gear prices and found out that nothing has changed,they seem to be selling well at pre-halving prices!, hashrate isn't going anywhere despite a whopping 50% reduction in rewards, which makes me think that someone with a lot of money and a very very good power deal is powering up a ton of mining gears so whatever hashrate leaves it gets replaced instantly and that's why we didn't fall off the cliff. This is BAD news to the average joe with average power rate, those who were counting on a difficulty drop and/or increase in price are now doomed, with the current results the average joe with 6 cents per kwh or above can only make a profit ( a tiny one) with S17's efficiency or better, even T17 isn't profitable anymore at these prices, I think the rules of the mining game might be changed forever after this halving, those who have no access to pretty cheap power rate can no longer compete with the regular gears, what else can they do? pay $2000 for S19 to receive it 4 months later? |
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-ck, I suppose the solo.ckpool.org:3333 url will remain the same after the server migration right? I know you won't be renting another server in EU zone, but is there a way to bind the de.ckpool to the new server somehow?
The reason is that I have personally used (stratum+tcp://de.ckpool.org:443) and (stratum+tcp://de.ckpool.org:3333) on hundreds of mining gears as a back up (secondary pool) when I set up mining gears for my clients, I can change the once I have access to, but it will be a pain in the ass to provide support to every other client/friend whom I helped setting up their miners, I am sure many other members who use the de server will face the same issue, please see if you can keep that URL functioning on the same U.S server.
Thanks.
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I have some V9's I had some issues with the miner rejecting a lot of shares so I decided instead of letting the GUI start CGMiner I would manually run it from the command line.
And did you stop the GUI from starting Cgminer? I mean if not, doesn't this mean your miner has 2 instances of Cgminer running at the same time causing the new line to show up? The reason I suspect this is because of this line May 10 16:40:42 (none) local0.warn cgminer[963]: get_asic_response: nonce fifo full!!!
FIFO stands for first-in, first-out, it's merely a pipe for queuing data, this error indicates that the pipe is full aka being used by another instance/s, which could be another CGminer. It could also mean that for whatever reason, there is something else exhausting this particular resource, but I lean towards my first assumption, so unless you can confirm that the miner won't start CGminer twice, the way you doing this is wrong. I suggest you refrain from starting Cgminer manually, and focus on fixing the initial issue instead of creating another one, I would do this: 1- Sdcard the control board and flash the latest firmware 2- Try a different pool 3- Try a different network cable and use DHCP settings just in case. |
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Out of all the different combinations that you showed so far indicates a voltage problem, this means this is a PSU problem, and you need to replace the PSU, the only thing to double-check before buying a new PSU would be your voltage input, check to see if it's below 200v then that might be causing the problem, if not then 95% you have a faulty PSU. As far as the flashing the recovery file, it's worth a try but highly unlikely that it will fix the issue, I can't tell which control board model do you have based on the kernel log, you either have to find the number 7007 or 7010 on the control board itself, or contact Bitmain, give them the SN of the machine and they should be able to tell you which model do you have, although I have previously tried to flash a miner with the wrong firmware and nothing bad happened, so maybe you want to take the risk and simply try the two version, one of them will work and the other won't work but do contact Bitmain if you want to be on the safe side. The SDcard process is pretty simple, you get an SDcard, format it as fat32, and then follow these steps > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFVmyaL7VX8it's pretty simple, but if you face any issues let me know. |
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Just sent my 0.01 BTC
Is it going to be a go?
Thanks for contributing, your question is not clear enough, please elaborate. Phill, 0.09 btc confirmed, good to go, i suggest you PM ck to confirm his bitcoin address and make the transfer so that he can pay for the server before bitcoin price drops. |
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Great, we are at Total transactions : 8
Total Received : 0.10000000 BTC 2 out of 8 transactions are yet to be confirmed, should be there soon, phill maybe you want to send it to CK as soon as its confirmed , BTC sitting at about 9k now, this means we did collect $900 in less than 24 hrs, which is a great sign that the miners community here is really strong. Thanks to everyone who donated. |
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a481dd637b686d33ceb9092ec8a830d1cfaaa57cf3ba6bb3a3e2c1d4140db288
0.01 btc sent to phill, i think we have 0.08 by now , 0.01 to go to cover first 6 months of the server fees.
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