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4021  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 02, 2014, 04:39:07 PM
This thread was more interesting to read prior to SC discussion taking over... Roll Eyes

I agree. Now we have to wade through pages of that... it's interesting, but I don't have the time.

I used to come here for news and insights on metals vs. bitcoin and markets in general.

Can't even say wether something was provided regarding the recent metals slamdown (or USD run) because I keep having to skip 5 pages at a time.

I have adressed this issue a couple of pages ago.

cypher response was : I can and will talk about whatever I want in MY thread, if you don't like it, go away.
4022  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 02, 2014, 04:37:24 PM
Man you people are so dense it's like you refuse to acknowledge the arguments made in most of my previous posts and insist on your incomprehension of the whole dynamics at stake to justify your ignorance.

Let us do it then step by step so you understand where you mistakes are

Bitcoin the currency is a mental bridge to understanding money as memory. The blockchain is the money. The blockchains existence is dependent on the economic incentive to wright transactions to it, it is an economic ledger if you adopt it. (Adopting Bitcoin is agreeing with the utility that it is the ledger.)

Agreed.

When rewards drop to a low quantity, possibly 20 months from now more likely 6 years, transaction fees will be a significant portion of the incentive to mine blocks. The network is dependent on incentivizing miners - to write transactions. In this model there is no wasted hashing, hashing grows to a point where it is supported by the value it provides eventually it grows to the marginal cost of transactions fees necessary to secure the network.  The drop in reward forces efficiency. And competition to mine for fees is incentivized by accepting the lowest fees possible. The mining market will tend to maximize profit by accepting the lowest fees that are viable or competition will get a sustaining advantage.

Messing with this has ramifications it changes the core of Bitcoin.
It really doesn't matter what miners think so long as they are at least 2 and they are in competition to write to the ledger in exchange for value that is redeemable in that ledger. The economic incentives, the value in the network, will ensure the appropriate industrial energy is invested.

This all sounds good to me... except maybe your inference that Sidechains "mess with this". moving on...

SC offer a secure way to use your BTC (Bitcoin the currency) but they don't secure the value, SC give me a choice transfer the value into another chain if it has greater value, and exchange it back if the other chain has less value.

Mistake 1 : Sidechains can protect the value through merged mining.
Mistake 2 : A chain that has greater value than Bitcoin = an alt-coin with greater value than Bitcoin. Utility features/services annexed to the main blockchain DO NOT have greater value than Bitcoin, only an alt-coin (supported through a sidechain or not) can claim this. If that is what you are suggesting (altcoin taking over) Sidechains are NOT introducing this risk and do little to enable it. As smooth has pointed out, the creator of such an altcoin would realize it is not necessarily desirable for his coin to utilize a sidechain.

I only believe BTC has a value because the only way in and out is by moving economic energy to the blockchain, Bitcoin in my mind is the blockchain and the currency are inseparable. It is just money is memory, value on the blockchain.

Mistake 3 : Assuming the transfer of scBTC does not generate, by proxy, the movement of economic energy to the main blockchain.

SC obviously have to be innovative (cypher' arguments have largely IMO focused on how you can fake success by messing with price.) But assuming they offer better value fake or real BTC will lock in. The BTC stay there but the value expressed as economic energy moves across.

See Mistake 2 :.

To secure this value it will need to be mined, MM is the only option as the value will be comparable to that of Bitcoin.
The miners will mine where ever the value is. If the SC becomes more valuable than Bitcoin (note the value can come from speculation manipulation or innovation we don't get a choice) then miners will derive there reward from the chain that gives the most incentives, nothing guarantees it will be Bitcoin.

See Mistake 2 :.

We also know Bitcoin will be disadvantaged over time with it's diminishing reward, and if the value is in a SC it will derive the highest reward from transaction fees. (The most viable argument I've heard is miners just MM all the SC, and I don't think that is a secure stratergy.) SC's could be anything even have an inflation rate however improbable that is it's not impossible, and not unlikely.   I conclude that miners will treat the value chain as the main chain and the Bitcoin blockchain would become less secure as miners don't have an economic incentive to keep it secure. (They earn off another chain)

Refer to Mistake 2 :. Note also that "I don't think that is a secure strategy" is not a reasonable answer to the argument you have been presented. FACT : it is trivial for miners to merge mine just about any chain and they will if there is ANY value in it.

Given we don't know who how or what SC will prevail we can probably expect a greater variety than we see with Alts as there are fiewer risks, we know if they fail to become the value chain they lose nothng and everything to gain if they succeeded.

No different than creating altcoins.
SC represent an attack vector fare more viable than a 51% attack, I for one wouldn't want to get 1:1 BTC back if the SC had more liquidity and a bigger network. And if that happened Bitcoin would not be as viable for me.

Refer to Mistake 2 :

I am convinced Bitcoin has no place being the dominant money or Master Chain unless it represent the economic memory or the greatest liquidity, SC change that, one may emerge that is adopted for reasons that appeal to non Austrian ideals, and absorbs Bitcoins value

Mistake 4 : Failure to understand that sidechains can preserve the ledger AND allow for more features to the unit in the ledger.

Austin Hill : "The KEY idea here is to protect the concept of digital scarcity and 21 million Bitcoin limit"

This is also a reiteration of your GOVcoin wins scenario which is truly a disturbing though coming from a Bitcoin proponent. See Mistake 2 :
4023  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 02, 2014, 02:14:00 AM
Listen to the recording, the referenced text is an abbreviation. He isn't concerned with preserving Bitcoin but rather leveraging it.

 Roll Eyes

5 minutes in :

"The KEY idea here is to protect the concept of digital scarcity and 21 million Bitcoin limit"

"We essentially set Bitcoin as a transactional currency for all innovation"
4024  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 02, 2014, 02:01:35 AM

Trolling trolls primarily in this particular case.   Edit:  What cyph's real problem is is actually kind of an interesting mystery to me at this point, but clearly from the content of his recent work he has one.  It's pretty obvious and other's have noted it too.

I'm pretty sure the problem is simply ego and inability to concede the inappropriateness of his inital stance.
4025  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 02, 2014, 01:51:52 AM
The jury is still out on that.  There have been many things "backed by nothing" that were highly prized and profitable -- for a while.

 Roll Eyes

Success is never truly final unless something comes to an end. In the case of Bitcoin it is more of a process and considering the mind share and capital it has attracted in the 6 last years I would be very comfortable to say that Bitcoin is presently a success
4026  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 02, 2014, 01:31:27 AM
Bitcoin as is, is crippled. The perfect Bitcoin has a limit on supply not the number of transactions.
Other shortcomings are peripheral.

Confirmation times are optimized for block dissemination to maintain the preferred chain. (This is a feature not a bug)
Privacy is not anonymity, the goal should be privacy we have that in Bitcoin if you want it.

Your want for Bitcoin to change are better found in an alt, why change something that predates you?. Just adopt something better. If you think it's better and if the market agrees you were correct.

SC don't peg value they peg BTC the currency, and create an opotunity to create value on another blockchain.

Proponents of SC's 1 know this and intended to profit from it or 2 don't see it and blindly support the idea.

Sidechains are the crutches that will allow it to serve all of its intended purposes.

I agree with your comment about confirmation times.

I'm not sure how you can say that privacy, on the model of the blockchain historical transaction registry and transparent ledger, is not aligned with the ability to make anonymous transactions.

I don't want Bitcoin to change, I already told you I believe it is as good as it gets (in the cryptocurrency world) from the standpoint of network, infrastructure, economic features and distribution.

Alts, while they may offer a particular desirable feature, do not come close to offering a value proposition similar to Bitcoin in regard to the features mentioned above.

I don't understand exactly what is wrong with wanting to incorporate a layer to Bitcoin so as to leverage its advantages while increasing its usability and features.

The value created on the utility sidechain is mirrored in BTC's value. I don't see how you can argue this.
4027  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 02, 2014, 01:06:29 AM
I would like to read that thread. Can you give me link?

Even if that's true, part of that coins are probably sold to lock profits and others in order to wait for the trend to change.
Would me less than if they need to sell nearly all to pay bills, but still adding selling pressure though.

some of my posts from the therad
Well if the mining profit margins are so narrow, how are they staying in operation without dumping BTC for fiat to cover their costs? They must have endless reserves of cash to hold all that BTC until the price rebounds right?

1. They have millions of dollars from selling mining gears
2. They have millions of dollars from VC investement
3. They have millions of dollars in Bitcoin profit from mining in the early days

So yes they must be burning through quite a lot of cash right now but in the long run they will be fine and they know it. Of course I am not suggesting they are ALL holding 100% of the Bitcoin mined but my guess is they are holding a good majority of them.
[/quote]

Miners are industry insiders at the top of the pyramid. I'm sure they are pretty confident about BTC's future.

Quote
BitFury founder and CEO Valery Vavilov indicated that the new funding will allow the company to complete production of its 28nm ASIC chip without selling the reserve bitcoins it has mined from its three industrial-scale data centres.

Quote
Vavilov told CoinDesk that it decided not to tap its bitcoin reserves as it remains bullish on the long-term value of bitcoin.

"We believe in the long-term perspective [the price of bitcoin] will grow and we decided to not to sell [our bitcoin] at such a low price," Vavilov added.

Here's another one from Josh Garza from GAWMiners at Hashers United conference :

Quote
Garza voiced the least concern regarding the price, saying that ultimately, the value of bitcoin is underpinned not so much by the consumers and merchants who use and accept digital currency but by the miners who facilitate the whole network.

“Miners believe in the currency the most,” he said.

More from this conference :

Quote
Terpin polled the crowd by asking how many sell a certain percentage of their bitcoins for fiat currencies like the dollar. One only miner raised their hand when Terpin asked if they sold 100% of their bitcoin for dollars, and about one-third of the crowd indicated that they don’t sell any of their generated bitcoins.

Again, I'm not saying all of the miners keep 100% of their coins but it is naive to believe the majority of them dump their Bitcoins for fiat

The thread is here :
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=833155.0
4028  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 02, 2014, 12:57:52 AM

Highers transactions means more users, but if they are not willing to buy then it doesn't mean price will go up. People like to invest when price is going up, and when they look last year chart they get scared as fuck. This users will probably buy, but they will feel the real urge to buy when bitcoin is 2x or 3x over ATH because bitcoin will be "cool again" and they won't want to "miss the train".
And I'm also convinced it is growing faster because people are sending more bitcoins to exchanges and expending them, adding more selling pressure.

I think bitcoin will have a shiny future, but it will need time to develop, maybe 6, 12 or 18 months. It is not magically goin to rally like lot of people think here.

but what if higher transactions translates to more coins being bought off exchange?

that sound like a pretty bullish scenario would you not agree?
4029  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 02, 2014, 12:56:21 AM

Higher difficulty means less profit for miners, so they need to dump more percentage of their daily mining income to pay bills.... That's something bad for bitcoin price (and only good for security).

Highers transactions means more users, but if they are not willing to buy then it doesn't mean price will go up. People like to invest when price is going up, and when they look last year chart they get scared as fuck. This users will probably buy, but they will feel the real urge to buy when bitcoin is 2x or 3x over ATH because bitcoin will be "cool again" and they won't want to "miss the train".

I have discussed at length in the other thread why it is naive to assume that miners (well most of the ones that matter i.e. industrial ones) have to dump their bitcoins in order to pay bills.

They have several other revenue streams that can cover these costs.
4030  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 02, 2014, 12:50:54 AM

trying to say a new, untested "innovation" will exactly offset the discount the market will apply b/c of less security is naive.  that might only be true over a given time period during which that innovation is tested.


did you ever think that the sidechain will be tested and vetted by the community BEFORE it is launched for public use thus mitigating your concerns
4031  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 02, 2014, 12:44:17 AM
another way to address your point is that a "theoretical" will never trump a "known".

we know MM is less secure than direct mining.  we don't know that a new untested "innovation" will exactly counter weigh the value of less security.

remember a week ago when you proposed that your anonymous sidechain would be so attractive it would effectively siphon all the BTC out of the mainchain  Huh

now you are not so certain about "innovations" because they don't fit your argument ?

via a speculative attack.

point being, there are many scenarios here where problems could occur.

and the beauty of open-source is the mind share of all of the Bitcoin community can work together to mitigate these problem scenarios..

the obvious point here is you choose to focus on doomsday scenarios without ever considering the successful ones.
4032  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 02, 2014, 12:40:52 AM

There is no 1:1 peg guarantee. If the SC is inflationary and appeals to a central bank more than Bitcoin they'll use that not BTC. And the minority who want BTC hard money will be eaten for breakfast.

you have lost all of the credibility you have here ever since you started spouting that nonsense. IMO

you have to realize that there is no incentive for someone to create GOVcoin as a sidechain so thus your argument is that the GOV altcoin is going to take BTC over. if that were to happen and if you truly believe that then I suggest you sell all of your BTCs because sidechains are NOT going to have an impact on whether this happens or not
4033  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 02, 2014, 12:29:57 AM
that's b/c altcoins don't have the luxury of being MM'd by the Bitcoin miners.

the only chance SC's have to sell their whole concept is if Austin Hill can introduce a market distortion by convincing miners to MM.  you know, the "something for nothing" concept.

"market distortion"

 Cheesy

surely you mean "profit incentive" right?
4034  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 02, 2014, 12:26:57 AM
another way to address your point is that a "theoretical" will never trump a "known".

we know MM is less secure than direct mining.  we don't know that a new untested "innovation" will exactly counter weigh the value of less security.

remember a week ago when you proposed that your anonymous sidechain would be so attractive it would effectively siphon all the BTC out of the mainchain  Huh

now you are not so certain about "innovations" because they don't fit your argument ?
4035  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 02, 2014, 12:20:38 AM
there may be some in scBTC who need to get out fast for IRL reasons and would rather take a slight loss selling on an exchange rather than going back thru the peg with it's contest/confirmation delays.  ppl do all sorts of crazy shit.

several proponents here have already agreed scBTC would be priced less than BTC, at least initially.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

so your argument relies on ppl doing all sort of crazy shit but you expect me to prove things without the shadow of a doubt

you can't be serious  Huh

this is a terrible, terrible answer and in fact there is no reasonable scenario for such a thing to happen. the only one I can envision where people would be selling their scBTC at a fiat loss instead of returning to the BTC mainchain is if a failure in the SC implementation doesn't allow it i.e. extremely unlikely and would be an exception that does not define the rule
4036  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 02, 2014, 12:12:35 AM
how do you know a brand new will be effective even if it is vetted by devs?  only with use, time, and multiple hacking attempts will you know definitively.  otoh, you know for a fact that a MM rate of say 50% that of the Bitcoin network will cause a decrease in security for the SC.  the market will price that in even though you won't.

so naive.

read above for the first part of your question.

as for MM. I expect the MAJORITY of miners to support an utility sidechain putting forth a significant feature that should attract considerable use and therefore profit for them.
4037  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 02, 2014, 12:10:08 AM
but that won't be proven right out of the box.  it will take time, experimentation, and speculation on the SC before the market will "trust" the SC, if ever at all.  in the meantime, expect the true value of 1 scBTC < 1 BTC.

this is another thing you don't understand, the 1:1 sidechain "market" doesn't have to prove itself, and in fact it is very likely there is no such speculation that you are referencing.

the likeliest candidates to sidechains are UTILITY chains on a 1:1 peg issuing no assets. they are to be used "in and out" or with only a fraction of the user's BTC trusted to it.

it seems very probable to me these sidechains can be proven valuable and secure "out of the box". assuming the sidechain concept (two-way peg, merged mining, etc.)has been implemented, tested and vetted for some time. From there on, candidate sidechain essentially leverages this implementation and present a code that discloses the exact behaviour of the chain which is then reviewed extensively by the community before an "official launch". Additionaly, we also have to consider that the SC could also be leveraging existing technologies or concepts that have been confirmed to work successfuly in a different environment.

4038  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 02, 2014, 12:01:49 AM
Increased utility has to make up for less security if someone is willing to use the SC. The price will be the same with a two way peg.

So obvious yet seemingly so hard to understand
4039  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 02, 2014, 12:00:26 AM
in fact, is this what the market is pricing in now since the announcement?

the ever insightful so "appeal to the market" argument

4040  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 01, 2014, 11:59:26 PM
the burden of proof is on you and the proponents of this change to show as close to a shadow of a doubt that what you propose is an improvement to the system and adds value.  i could equally say it may destroy the system and i have given plenty of reasons why it think it could.

if you want to call me twisted then i could equally call you a naive 24 yo kid.

In reality, "plenty" of your reasons have been dismissed as disingenuous, farfetched and overall FUD.

Here is my proposition that sidechains are an improvement to the system and add value :

I think we all agree that Bitcoin is good enough right now and actually pretty close to being perfect as is. As I have mentionned above, its only shortcomings are in its transportive properties : confirmation times and inability to provide private transactions natively. This leads me to believe these two aspects are likely the only ones that who will lead to the creation of utility sidechains that are used as subsets of Bitcoin-money. In all honesty, is there anything more we need from Bitcoin, as a mean of exchange, than faster confirmation time and a privacy option? I don't think so.

Thousands of other sidechains will be created for different purposes but none will be competing with Bitcoin for its position as crypto-money. Some might try, but will realise they will be better off applying their competing idea to an actual altcoin.

Back to my two utility sidechains : these will never take over Bitcoin as they are effectively serving only a certain application or subset of money. Considering these two applications are using a BTC-peg as their transacting unit they are, barring some technicalities, a part of the Bitcoin network and closely tied to the native bitcoin unit, so much in fact that their 1:1 value will always gravitate toward each others and this correlation will become narrower as arbitrage comes into effect and time allows the technology to mature.
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