I won't be discussing any more than this one 'greed'.

The only way forfeiting old stale coins does not happen by 2080 is BTC is not worth much money. It lost out to LTC/DOGE due to the superior reward structure of the scrypt algo for miners

If it is 2080 and 2-3 million coins have sat in place from 2009- 2013 era a call for reclaiming them will happen. Thus boosting the payment/rewards for miners.


Look at BTC as wealth for power which is pretty much what satoshi said it is.

Look at LTC/DOGE as wealth for power it is an improved method of rewards for the power.

Does this mean I think BTC is not a good as LTC/DOGE not really .

I hold  in dollar value

84 percent BTC
 4 percent  LTC
10 percent DOGE
  2 percent odd ball crap


But Other than my BTC DCA  all coins in my stack are acquired via mining.

So my mined coins are a discount buy in every case.

If you look at a miner as a $$$ per watt machine the L7 is better than the s19 xp

same watts in each case


the s19 xp makes 141 x  $0.0721 = $10.16 in btc a day
the L7 makes 9 x $ 2.1832 = $19.6488

So if you are spending 75kwatts a day for either one which is better by satoshi's definition (power into wealth) the L7 is about 2x better.

As time marches on the Scrypt algo will always be better due to Doge's set 10,000 coins a block.

If you don't see this you are blind to the future. Le tus  say 2080
(I will be very dead then by then as I would be 123 years old in 2080)

LN won't really be the greatest fix for this as LTC and DOGE can do LN

Of course the argument I make depends on POW existing in 2080.  It is a long time from now.

Which is why I hold 84% BTC and 14% LTC/DOGE

Every ½ that happens from now on under current setup favors LTC/DOGE in long run.

But as I said beta lost to vhs and BTC could certainly keep its edge over LTC/DOGE for longer than I think.

In all practicality it does not matter to me as I won't live to see the issues I am discussing.

yeah pretty much r606 or the Apollo are cheap to run.

I play with an old L3+ using a good platinum ATX psu.

I set it to 80% speed for hash
I set it to 12% speed for fans
I solo mine Doge.

I run it in a cold spot in my home that needs a space heater in the summer as ac makes the runs too cold.
Same spot is too cold in the winter so it needs a space heater in the winter.
So I would be running a space heater on low or running this L3+

Its hard to answer that cost to mine a btc question. But I will try.

An established miner with gear paid off.
Lets say he has 400 s19 pros. All paid off.

400 x 110 = 44000 th
they burn 75kwatts each day for each one.

or 30000 kwatts a day for 400 .

110 x 7.2 cents = $7.92 a day for 1 unit
  75 x 5 cent power cost = $3.75 for 1 unit

4.17 profit a day right now today for 1 miner
400 x 4.17 = 1668 dollars a day for all 400 miners

So in 19 days boom a Btc. pure profit.

or 19 x 400 x 7.92 = $60192  worth of btc earned which is 2 coins
19 x 400 x 3.75 =  $28500 in power spent which is under 1 coin.

now what did I skip cost of the gear as My example is with paid off gear.
I also skipped labor for those 19 days.
I also skipped cooling for those 19 days.
I also skipped cost of your building

And I used 5 cent power to calculate power cost.

Gear is not a sunk cost as gear lasts 2-5 years must be churned and replaced.
Your building may be paid off and has at least 20 years life in it.

I am not a big miner I may have 100 units of gear.
All paid
one or two are always broken
Lots of labor.

But runups are glorious and mining becomes a lot of fun.

At the moment its a grind.

You need under 8 cents power cost to be in the black.
and 5 cents power cost to be doing well.

Also I am using no loan examples.

If you carry loans to get your gear you need 2-5 cent power to survive.

I can give you a long list of reasons why it will happen. But when you talk about the year 2080 no one really knows what is relevant.

Just remember holders of coins do not vote since there is no staking. Well maybe one can say LN is kind of like staking.

No 5.2 trillion market cap for BTC is not same 5.2 trillion going into BTC . I should be more clear as I did mention shifting wealth so it would seem like that I meant people spend 5.2 trillion to buy all the btc. As John Galt said it would be more complex than  stocks trading for btc or  gold trading for btc.



But yeah if you tried to buy every coin in existence  the market cap could go to 15 trillion.






As for developers freeing the lost coins they likely will one day. Unfortunate that will take more than 30 years from now maybe 2080.

So I won't live to see it.

I am almost certain that if BTC does succeed those coins will be freed down the road.

But it is arguing a point in time so far away it does not affect me and likely very few of us would be alive to see it happen.

USA record heat is helping hash rates drop.




https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-weather/2023/07/26/phoenix-heat-records-that-remain/70470808007/#


"It's no shock that the current heat wave beating down on the Phoenix area has been nothing short of record setting.

Wednesday's projected high temperature in the Valley is 119 degrees, which, if it even gets to 110, will keep the current 26-day streak of days of 110 degrees or higher alive, pushing it to 27. Additionally, those in Phoenix woke up to a low of 96 degrees on Wednesday, one degree short of the all-time low of 97 degrees set on July 19 last week, making 17 straight days of having the daily low temp at 90 degrees or higher.

The July 26 low, however, did surpass the previous daily high low of 94 degrees set in 2018."



https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-weather/article/houston-hottest-days-july-weather-temperature-18192567.php paywall for this one.

https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/TX/Houston/extreme-annual-houston-high-temperature.php


https://www.nbcdfw.com/weather/weather-connection/nbc-5-forecast-2/2286145/


https://www.kxan.com/weather/forecast/todays-forecast/


"AUSTIN (KXAN) — Austin is on track to tally its most back-to-back 100-degree days on record next week as unseasonably hot, dry weather continues.

Temperatures reached 103 degrees Thursday in Austin, our 20th-consecutive day. Hazy skies continue, brought on by a cloud of African dust. Austin’s air quality is expected to be moderate due to the dust through the coming weekend."

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/18/weather/heat-wave-end-phoenix-texas-climate/index.html


these numbers are suppressing the Diff .

May last 20 or more days. So with luck we drop two more jumps maybe?

Yeah the key is getting a "certain" payment fuck variance.

So viabtc.com will pay a set amount at the moment 7.2 cents a th.

so a 100 th unit pays you $7.20 worth of btc.

you can set payment threshold as low as 0.0001 btc which is a very low level.

you have 850 th point 550th  or more. at viabtc you get 39.60 a day and a shot to hit the block with the 300th.

whether you do

 800 certain 50 solo

down to

400 certain 450 solo

you get certain coin

me I do.

2.4ph certain

40th solo

yeah 2001 or 2000 was last plus year.

So a crash and burn will happen if not 2023-2024 maybe when Trump gets reelected in 2024 they use him as the perfect fall guy.

this is the third time i have watched them do it

late 90s ended kind of okay
2007-2008 crash and burn 🔥
2022 to now ?

It is not like they have not done this before.

Although I am guessing they pivot sooner than you think.

Sept --hike   +0.25%
Nov -- Pivot   -0.50%
Dec -- drop   -0.25%

Maybe you are right in fact it is more likely they end the year at todays rate of +5.08% or maybe +5.33%

Then a lower number such as 4.50% but I am hoping for a fall pivot which would be the Nov change.

Some very sad fud.


https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/dismembered-remains-missing-crypto-influencer-191449806.html


"Dismembered Remains of Missing Crypto Influencer Millionaire Found in Suitcase"

Well lets pretend your investment stack of buckets is 20k

if you are under 50 and you are 18k not btc  2k btc

adding just BTC for the rest of the year could be a good idea.

The ratios of your investments could go from:

 10% btc 90 % not BTC
to
 20% BTC 80% not BTC

the younger you are the harder you could push BTC

Just remember investment money is more or less what you can afford to lose or hodl for a long time.

yep every time you spin a die your shot of rolling a six is 1 in 6 even if you made ten sixes in a row or made 50 rolls with no six.

Where and how did you find the global assets are 900 trillion?

why do you think 15 million BTC are available?


https://www.blockchain-council.org/cryptocurrency/how-many-bitcoins-are-left/

19 million are mined no matter what anyone says all 19 million are 'possibly' available.

Ie all 'lost coins' could simply be recovered and reissued by developers.

so use 19 million not 15 million

as for assets here is an estimate for 520 trillion not 900 trillion.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/25-wealthiest-countries-world-assets-121841637

"This study estimates that as of November 2021, the global 'balance sheet,' which comprises of the real assets in the economy as well as financial assets, had $510 trillion in financial assets held by corporations, $510 trillion in assets held by households, governments, and others, and $520 trillion in assets for the real economy."


So 1 percent = 5.2 trillion/ 19million = 273,684 USD a coin

vs 600,000 USD a coin

my ideas on 273k to 600k are:

in 2025 138k
in 2029 276k
in 2033 552k

You can buy a usb miner or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6.  But they are very costly to buy.

The cheapest way to mine btc is buy a used bitmain L3+ point it to nicehash and have it pay you in BTC.

Or if you want to directly mine BTC use

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5340015.0

 Futurebit Apollo

I am going out with one of them today to bargain shop at Target and Stop n Shop.

I mine at his office as his power bill is 80% subsidy. We hold over 0.1 btc from his mine location.

To him the mining is fun and games.

Although his is interested in buying a warehouse placing solar on the roof and mining at a much higher level.

He was part owner of a Bank in Lakewood NJ. USA rules state under 14% is all you can own.

He has good money maybe 30 -35 mill.

Yet we are going to Target for cheaper eggs today.

You are correct that his BTC hodl of 5 coins which is 150k out of say 30 million  or 0.5% could grow to 5% if btc shot up to 300k.  

Still in his case he simply does not need the money.

He was working class guy that did well in stocks and cable ownership. He parleyed it into part owner of a bank. The bank did well he sold it.
He has
real estate
stocks
bonds
metals
cash
BTC
and a few private loans where he finances guys with ideas.

These are the typical wealthy people I met while living in NJ.

maybe a dozen guys and 1 women (she is a widow of my friends partner). all of them were middle class 'norms' that did well.

All of them would stand to gain money they don't need if BTC goes from 30k to 300k. Most of them would hodl it as they don't need the extra wealth.

wow i wonder what they will be building with it?

Weekly DCA hit at 11:15 pm EST

Yep and the older guys I know all have 2-5% BTC. But they have BTC.

The question is how much will they shift. To go up to 10%-15% is likely all they will do. They will not go to 85-15 as blackrock asks them to as they do not need to.

So they have a ton of wealth with not much need to shift to btc. But they are shifting a bit.

Should be fun to see this unfold.

Fuck you finally did a really good post. I will have to merit it.

I have two older friends that were bankers.

I am 66 they are 76 and 83.

They are wealthy not billionaires but say 25 million and 35 million for each of them.

I am way poorer then they are maybe 1/10 the wealth.

Both of them are well diversified and have the ability to do nothing and live well or do more and live well.

I met more friends of them some worth 5 million some worth 50 million one worth 800 million.

All are 10-20 years older than me.
First off everyone of them would give at least half their wealth to be forty vs 76-86.
All of them are not looking to burn their wealth. They play around with various investments more or less for a hobby .

So shifting from bonds to metals to real estate to stocks to cash is something they all do.

They all like BTC as one more value/wealth bucket to shift into.

All of them hodl and churn their holdings. They pay attention to ratios.

They all like the idea of fleeing the country and having a wallet when they are in a safer country.

So my look at the upper 1% is a bit skewed as I know guys in the 25-800 million dollar range.

Obviously they are in the lower part of the upper 1%.

But they really match your question close to perfectly.

So yeah the interrelationship of wealth/value buckets 🪣 will change as one grows more than the other .

Silver was 50 usd in the late 70s  gold was under 400 say 8 to 1

now silver is 25 and gold is say 2000 say 80 to 1.

so those buckets shifted bigly.

to say btc cap at  600,000 billion and gold cap at 12 trillion is 20 to 1

I could see btc gaining and being 6 trillion cap vs 12 trillion gold say 2 to 1.

The real question is not that

 stock up btc up
gold up btc up

but how much leaves the wealth/value buckets of all the other assets.

and fills the btc wealth/value bucket.