People expect a little too much all at once, the action at the start of the year is exceptional and just staying in this area is very bullish but it doesnt have to mean we continue to repeat such gains especially so soon.   BTC doesnt really move like a rocket or it'd fall back down with far harsher action then the selling we do also see, some of the gains are going to be absorbed by selling at the same time.   We have to judge volume as some indication how easy we can progress, I would bet on sideways mostly.

There is an area of resistance (former volume greater then daily trades) not a singular price & also a measure of momentum + pattern trends that result in our failure to move upwards through 50k.  It has to be a combination of all these factors I believe hence why we swing about so much and it ends up being so confusing but the world is a big place and nothing is traded quite like BTC on every second of the day even FOREX prices arent actively altering trade in that way so this is unique.
   Here is my view of current action in a more macro view, its only weekly bars but I prefer the birds eye view without the constant noise of over reactions:


From what I know of any market is weekly bars will take precedent over small time frame considerations so I repect the largest common pattern I can find and the more points we touch in this pattern the greater its significance.   So the uptrend was important, for 5 full weeks we resolved to rise higher thats really bullish but we are outside that trend now.  So I've drawn in the negative trend and Im very interested now to find out if we hold this declining ceiling till we bump our heads and fall in a more negative way.   200 day average underlines our recent lows but not the close, hence mostly we can say we go sideways.

Gold wont be replaced by bitcoin for really simple reasons they are not in competition and neither product replaces the other.   That could be considered true with 30 seconds of reasoning, gold is an elemental part of the wider world which we happen to find useful in a monetary capacity at some times greater then others.   Right this moment, gold isnt largely used for currency we revolve around the dollar global reserve system and a reliance on debt which itself leans on politics and fiscal budgets.
   The greatest change in the world will be around the history of Bretton Woods agreement, leading to Nixon shock a quarter century later and present day 50 years on we are to witness the end of debt leveraged as a currency.   I dont know we steal market cap from anywhere except where gigantic failure is most likely, the debt that cant be repaid and that realization seems that most obvious point.   Interest rates at 5% instead of 0% we have would bankrupt most countries fiscal obligations, we are going to find out where that goes but BTC likely will be more used then.

Theres no need to be negative on a grand scale, 2017 wasnt negative like that it was just a very bumpy ride.   The sell offs back then were back to 3k or so and that was on big news like entire countries banning BTC, I think the creators always expected such news to be the norm not the exception.   In any case we know 2017 BTC carried on regardless and in that respect it could be compared to now in that we can fall but overall I'm not negative on BTC prospects over years.
   The real negative year was maybe 2018 and even then if you held your breath a few months, the price was bubbling right back up in 2019 anyway so what are we even talking about.  BTC can fall but its continually regained its losses, that historic record should not deter anyone especially except leveraged speculators who must sell on these short term moves.

We'll need a better run up then this to beat the highest prices and volume including sales in that area.   We did have a good trend but current BTC price action has passed and left that pattern of weekly gains.  Im waiting for BTC to prove itself stronger then some decline in motion right now, look at 2 day or a weekly average price for some quick reference to this possibility continuing.

September is a very uncertain generally negative month for mainstream markets in historic record.   I think correct stance in this exact moment in time is best suited to caution and if we prove resilient then BTC might appreciate better in the last months of the year.   I see the start of a pullback here, if it fails then I'll change my mind.

Price is not a good indicator when we have a currency standard being debased, it shows Dollar is increasingly weak in real terms such that very large numbers are possible in anything more certain in its progression.   BTC is clearly more limited supply then Dollar which has infinite and unscaled production of new dollars, one day it may completely fail and prove unreliable through no set fix to any system of value.
  Despite the great history behind dollar the modern reality it has no regular reliable schedule of issue.

Promise is a promise right, I guess you have to win something now though it might be just 1 sat.    I dont see that particular banner but the normal show for my number of weekly lottery tickets is showing me the usual zero point very lows odds as expected because I dont have that many.


So far as I can see the closing price for August is 47221 which is top of the range I bet on.  Only 7x odds, I had hoped for far more movement so it just covers and gives me the stake amount back.    
 As far as this month biggest clue I'm being given right now is BTC price action should by no means drop under 46k.   Dont take this too absolute but basically if we submerge below that point it's going to be autumn storms and if we prove this current action as the low then be far more bullish.  I generally agree with that, if we cant hold this point I might just go with 50 day average for my initial guess on Sept end price this time around.

The latest rise was more to do with the Dollar dilution then halvening, we would have taken a bit longer to have risen this much maybe an extra year to accumulate enough involvement and volume.   I do remember saying each halvening matters less then the last, its effect is far less dramatic each iteration and despite this latest giant rise I think thats still the case in percentage influence.  It doesnt mean we slow down because demand might rise and supply of the dollar as we've seen could become excessive in helping BTC remain bullish.

Decline below the 2 day and weekly average but this is just a smaller short term sign of the overall sell and weakness in this area.   I reckon we drop below 200 day moving average into the 50 day area before recovering, its hard to say if that move is a sharp move down or a more structural adjustment in part reaction to Labor day type selling into autumn markets and Fed moves apprehension perhaps.

Prices are broken all the time, but does it hold and for what duration.  Some people watch prices on hourly bars, some daily, weekly even monthly.   If it trades above 50k and then reverses back down even on a weekly, that could easily be considered not at all bullish.   Depends on your perspective, I dont think 50k resistance has been disproved thus far.   Price action has more work to clear the way, I think thats my take for the rest of the year till I can see different in the chart.

Almost every conventional commodity increases supply as price and margins allow for it, thats just the way of the free market.   That means increased supply to some extent is appearing alongside increased demand yet even normal commodities can rise a great amount.   BTC deliberately limits supply hence it has a far more rapid price rise when demand appears especially, that usually means  we dont back off a trend in demand till its completely exhausted on every time frame.
   BTC has a while to go yet, its usually something that spikes up at some point and I did think the 2021 highs were far too calm to be feared in long term consideration.

Twitch regs were way looser back in the years before amazon but at some point it was almost totally banned as I remember.   So what is possible now is quite light touch, I think at one point you were allowed the idea of gambling on your stream for 30 minutes only per day and so on.  
  Theres a good chance it wasn't anyone in particular gunning for the stream, at the moment its a popular crusade topic that gambling should not be in the visible spectrum of mainstream which is nonsense.  Far better to teach people good money management when the ever present dangers of over spending in multiple categories always remains, credit cards overdrafts and all sorts are far more normalized and dangerous imo.
  I discussed this with someone who is a big fan of a top streamer whose keen of eliminate gambling as a stream type, I was just putting the basic point that alot of modern games drop loot cases which are very much a type of gambling and yet its pointed at children and mislabeled, way more dangerous but people dont see this blind spot is way worse then a correctly displayed gambling stream, video etc.

We never know the top, I think we realized at some point that BTC can go into six figures and thats incredible previously impossible and now people want to get to that point.   The market always gets over hyped and over extended, invariably people without money borrow to buy BTC (or housing or anything that rises alot) and then the ladder upwards becomes too thin and prone to reset in failure from that leverage.
  What the OP is saying we need not fear FIAT ever rising in value, rates of interest wont rise beyond inflation and so there is no point to being negative on BTC.   I love the optimism but one key thing is there is no free money its an illusion.
  Inflation represents failure, somehow inflation can lead to failure with deflationary effects of failed firms, lower wages vs inflation etc. and it will never be a smooth easy path.  To me that means BTC must suffer reset at times, I need dollars to pay bills and if there is losses then that liquidity is more required to pay bills.  I hope you get what I mean that scarcity to cash can develop, this will force BTC to sell off sometimes.

I think government is only regulating the centralized parts of crypto and parts where its exchanged to FIAT.    There is no title deed or recourse for a crypto deposit unless its already held by a company with fixed legally registered offices, so that would not be on the blockchain at that time.   Its a proxy for the crypto but when held in that way its no longer really part of crypto so government regulation is to be expected at that point.  

 The same thing already happens in normal finance, you can get legal IOU for various commodities.  A ticket for ownership of oil but in fact there is no oil, nothing stored and nothing delivered just price tracking and if the company who created the IOU goes broke so does the worth of that IOU.  I presume off chain deposits can easily end up this way, the law protecting people when its more like a debt or IOU is not something I exactly rely on.
  I have traded BTC at a company where it had bank deposit insurance (I was ranked as consumer vs the above example is at risk investor unprotected), so I'd get back the cash value for the loss at time of failure.  This was central government protecting my crypto but really there was no BTC just price IOU on a spreadsheet somewhere.    Later the central bank decided only a millionaire was allowed to trade BTC, I was excluded hence I was regulated out of crypto trading in that point of access anyhow.

Ordinary people in a normal capitalist economy are investors.   Everyone who had a pension is an investor by requirement because one day you will not be able to work like you can now so its a requirement you save for that day.  The most common investment would be to purchase your own house outright, if its as part of a family and naturally you end up not requiring as many rooms when old then you have a large capital investment to use in retirement.  This process is still a type of investment, I dont really like this idea of 'ordinary people' vs these special investment superhumans.

   Capitalism says we are all part of economy in a vital way and common people are the owners of the means of production and capital, modern generations lost this truth imo

Probability does not equate to a solution but it does give an advantage to know the bias possible, I dont think this alters the game of Poker especially vs things like Chess where there is a definite path to checkmate over other solutions.   In that way it might be a greater advantage then using a poker odds computer, after some people can already do this kind of reckoning in their heads and have done for centuries probably.   
  Using a chess computer to win online I'm told is detectable and they will pick you up and ban you from games if you are found to have just copied computer directions.  I dont know how exactly but I presume its for the same reasons, that the path you took to win was robot like.

Its not 50k itself but that rough area yes has some prior volume accumulated, just stick to weekly bars and it should be possible to draw a horizontal line across all the closing prices this year that matches a common closing area.  That makes it a speedbump I'd guess.
  The Sunday high and quick reversal from that point was some tell of negatives still ongoing in the price I think.  It forms a lower high over some days and fits resistance existing in this area still .   The chart trend I put in has us closing the weekly price below previous gains sequentially since late July.   Once we lose a trend upwards it can take some time to appear into a decline but generally I expect it to pullback.  

I believe BTC has some trend failure and now also momentum failure over the last few days.  I'm wondering if it can resolve itself without price correction just over time going sideways but really i think we do need to settle lower and find volume buying to challenge this amount of (potential) speculative profit taking.  Its not a serious sell but quite normal to occur, I put in some Fib retracement levels as a guide and it fits previous possible support areas also

Its a mistake to believe government is the most powerful force possible.   The largest factor in an economy will always be natural effect, the economy is a natural phenomena we might modify but not alter permanently.   Economics should not be taught or practiced as an extension of politics and by force as a norm.  We know in engineering, sciences all kinds of disciplines that humans are the pupil not the master vs natures forces, this too also applies even to human dynamics in economics and finance.   Sadly we have to learn the hard way and many like posters above believe government has perfect control and ability to turn tides when they can mitigate or delay at best.