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4101  Economy / Economics / Facebook agrees to makes payments to Australia on: February 25, 2021, 10:09:13 AM
It seems that it is actually possible to come to an agreement. Facebook has to pay a tax for using news from Australian media. I would really like to see Europe using a fair taxation for the income generated in Europe as opposed to the current massive lassier-faire.
4102  Economy / Speculation / US Tether in the courts on: February 25, 2021, 10:07:13 AM
NY courts apparently have come down on Bitfinex and UST. The main claim is that UST without a real USD backup has been used to support and acquire massive amounts of bitcoins during some of the larger dips at least. My take: just donīt tether stuff.
4103  Economy / Services / Re: [OPEN] FortuneJack.com | JackMate Signature Campaign | Hero/Legendary - $65/Week on: February 25, 2021, 12:01:25 AM
Bitcointalk Profile Link: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1192397
FortuneJack Username: paxmao
Current amount of posts: 1810
Amount of EARNED merit in the last 120 days: 12
4104  Other / Serious discussion / New regulations in Australia affect Google, Facebook and the like on: February 24, 2021, 09:58:06 PM
Australia intends to charge news aggregators and other for showing the news from media. Google has started to use that to create partnerships, thus enhancing his grip and monopoly while Facebook has been reactive by blocking news from Australia.

I think that Google has made the right move.

4105  Economy / Economics / Re: 'Cryptocurrency is not legitimate money,' says Nigeria's central bank governor on: February 24, 2021, 09:25:03 PM
As usual, too many people are just missing the point out there. It is only for the community to decide if Bitcoin is legitimate.
4106  Other / Serious discussion / Re: Bitconaires on: February 24, 2021, 09:23:37 PM
...

Some of us just haven't bothered recovering our old accounts and instead created *new* accounts Smiley

mmm... that is frowned upon Smiley
4107  Local / Espaņol (Spanish) / Re: YouTuber se arrepiente de haber utilizado 37 BTC para adquirir un Honda usado on: February 24, 2021, 09:21:24 PM
o mejor dicho, de que prefieres desprenderte, de 50k euros o de un btc?

Un bitcoin mola mucho más y puedes soltarlo en el bar cuanto estás de choteo con los amigos, en plan "tengo un bitcoin y os lo recomiendo tios". Sin embargo si a mis amigos les digo "tengo 50.000 USD y os lo recomiendo tios" mientras me tomo una birra me van a mirar como a un chalado y como mucho puede pasar q me pidan prestado algo.
4108  Economy / Services / Re: [FULL] ChipMixer Signature Campaign | Sr Member+ on: February 24, 2021, 09:10:48 PM
Username: paxmao
Post Count: 1805 + this one
BTC Address (must be SegWit): bc1qfnjwk5acyndhuhyrm6gjfdg79cqpqtnkc9x540

Hi, I usually post in the Spanish section, Economy, ... (also quite a bit in Serious & Ivory although that does not count for the campaign).

Please, kindly let me know if I am accepted - I am aware that there may be limited slots.
4109  Other / Serious discussion / Re: What happens after big institutional money on: February 24, 2021, 08:54:56 PM


What next? What would drive the demand once the big players build their stakes?

...I presume that is what you were meaning with regard to "investment funds and capital managers."  ...


I mean anyone who allocates capital - substantial amounts of capital. e.g. CFOs of large companies, fund managers and family offices of decent size.
4110  Other / Off-topic / Re: Why do you like this forum? on: February 24, 2021, 08:51:12 PM
My favourite thing is complaining about insubstantial posts.
4111  Other / Ivory Tower / Re: Megawatts or Megahash - rating miners. on: February 24, 2021, 12:33:40 AM
You need both. You need to assess income (hasrate) and costs (MW). When btc goes down, the most efficient operations (leaders in costs) can keep up making money whereas others have to shut.
4112  Other / Ivory Tower / Re: Can you prove Randomness? on: February 23, 2021, 11:50:48 PM
Infinity is infinitely random and infinitely ordered.

Would love to see the proof of that. Not that I am sure I would understand if it has really been published.

BTW, what about the decimals of PI or the frequency of prime numbers? Are these random?

Re physics and randomness, the chaotic systems are those in which minor variations of the input produce major changes in the outputs or results, thus being nearly impossible to predict or predict fully. For example, the weather, etc... In those cases, we may think of random as "not known", because for human purposes not knowing or not knowing the probability could be good enough.
One major question about this is, Does quantum exist in nature, or have we invented it? Quantum, being what it is, if we seem to find it in nature, perhaps we invented/created it exactly at the same "moment" we thought we discovered it. Quantum is not a good test for the randomness question.


No, that is not a major question of any kind. Science uses theories that describe how limited models of reality work. So yes, quantum mechanics are a human construct that partially explains and describes repeatable observations of the physical world, limited to certain variables.

Perhaps it is easier to understand if you ask if "humans have invented gravity".


...
The problem is that we have started to progress on things that we haven't proven. What kind of progression is such? And even with strict scientific examination protocols, we are finding that some of the things we have prove factual, are not really the fact at all.

That is not much of a problem. In science not everything has the same degree of certainty nor has been equally proven nor equally formalised. This is particularly important for the theories that are relatively new and try to explain the latest observations.

For example, the Theory of Gravity is well established and no serious scientist would contest it. However the theories that deal with quantum mechanics and the nature of matter at that level are still just theories.

There are two ways of advancing at least: you observe and then explain or you predict and then try to find how to validate the theory. Both of this are used in physics frequently. A surprising observation may disprove a theory (e.g. something that falls upwards at a macroscopic level would disprove gravity) and a new construct would need to be developed to explain the facts.

I think that one classic example is "if positives repel each other, how are the protons of an atom held together in the nucleus". That requires a construct to describe the nuclear interactions. But it is also possible to predict, e.g. "if the Theory of Relativity is true, then there should be a gravitational lens effect" which has been later verified.
4113  Other / Ivory Tower / Re: Is Trump right about blaming China for Covid19? on: February 23, 2021, 11:44:47 PM
...

to me. it was america that didnt do anything to halt it at the border

...

America (US?) is not the only country in the world and since the Chinese did not provide much data, there was no way of knowing how fast it would spread, would it?

And why did it arrive to Italy first if the repatriation flights were the reason for the spread?
4114  Other / Serious discussion / Re: How do you predict the market? on: February 23, 2021, 11:34:31 PM
no one can predict the market high point. or correction dip date. but you can access how wild a market currently is to indicate if the speculation is becoming too much for it to not last

work out the mining cost. and call that the VALUE. and then look at the bitcoin price and see how much the difference is


It is an interesting metric. However the cost of mining varies a lot depending on what you pay for electricity. How do you average that e.g. across diff nations?

its not about averaging

....

As I mentioned on another thread, IMO your system is not bulletproof, but has merit, yet would only work if BTC prices grow indefinitely in the long term.

Re minimum cost of mining, there are some rumours around some Chinese farms using some "secret hardware" and the like, but mostly the farms tend to keep to themselves their precise data. I guess you can be more or less precise anyway.

What you use in a way is not really different from any commodities cycle with the only different is that BTC commodity cycle is around a year or perhaps 6 months. There is a component of cost and a component of estimation of future price.
4115  Other / Serious discussion / Re: Bitconaires on: February 23, 2021, 11:15:13 PM

My guess is that most of the legendaries that are no longer active have decided that they have better things to do with their time yeah.

Well if those of us who are left started some interesting discussions, and supported others, then perhaps we could attract them back.

I wonder how many of them still read the boards here .

Some of them are definitely here. My guess is that Theymos and some of the old guys are around just for a chat among themselves and perhaps a for a certain sense of custodians of history, but at this point my guess is that they are certainly financially free.

I was attracted to the forum to learn, share and make a buck here and there. While I am far from being an expert, I have reached a point that it is just a pass-time.

I am a bit tired of the very low level of many discussions on politics, economy, markets and of the forum being used for political campaigns and the like.

It is fine to have your own views, but there should be some short of notion of what is a fact and is just an opinion. I think that the way politics have been conducted in the UK and the US during the last 5 years has put at the same level facts and beliefs - not that hasnīt been the case in large bits of the US for many decades and not that this is not the case in most of the social platforms in the internet.

Anyway, I guess this forum has is still very useful for many people, but those that are sipping their Daiquiris on a tax heaven are not keen on using their time mingling here anymore as there is little of interest for them here.
4116  Economy / Trading Discussion / Never catch a falling knive on: February 23, 2021, 09:13:23 AM
If you are not familiar with this term, just look at the bitcoin price as now.  There it goes!
4117  Local / Espaņol (Spanish) / Re: YouTuber se arrepiente de haber utilizado 37 BTC para adquirir un Honda usado on: February 22, 2021, 10:50:04 PM
Si al menos hubiera sido un Honda nuevo verdad?
4118  Other / Serious discussion / What happens after big institutional money on: February 22, 2021, 10:49:15 PM
So, BTC price is a question of supply and demand - with a pinch of salt regarding the large amounts stored with little movement. Bitcoin has been building itīs credibility, first with small highly convinced people, then some mouth to mouth, then with help of some internet blogs, this forum, etc... and now is getting the attention of the huge investment funds and capital managers.

What next? What would drive the demand once the big players build their stakes?
4119  Other / Serious discussion / Re: Bitconaires on: February 22, 2021, 10:21:16 PM
I agree with JetCash. I am worried.

Smiley

I say what I believe, and I research and observe the basis for my beliefs. Welcome to the world of intelligent scepticism.

Thanks and hail to you master of the of intelligence and Overlord of the sceptics  Grin

I also agree with JetCash.
Bitcoinaire should mean somebody who owns 1,000,000 bitcoin.
If one owns 17.3+ BTC (at 57.5k$) I would maybe call him millionaire (since the million is in USD).


At current price ($57.5k) I am sure there are some bitconaires in this forum with 17.3BTC or more.

Most probably they were on this forum. But quite probably they are no longer here, instead they are busy enjoying life.

My guess is that most of the legendaries that are no longer active have decided that they have better things to do with their time yeah.
4120  Other / Serious discussion / Re: Investing is a question of guts on: February 22, 2021, 05:17:58 PM

if you can teach yourself to only buy when the value-price spread is under 30% its no longer a gut feeling needed to decide when to do trades
Only works on a permabull market.

nah
cant use this tactic on a permabull market.
it works to buy on the dip when the price-value spread goes under 30%
emphasis third time: under 30%

meaning it has to go bear to get to under 30%

buy low sell high is a tactic of repeated trading on a volatile market
thats logic

your 'gamble by guts' only works on a permabull because whatever gutsy number you buy at. you hope it will only go up

buy low sell high is the hope of ups and downs. and then using math and logic to buy at the right dips and sell at the right peaks. repeat. repeat.repeat

You are not getting it. It is not gamble by guts or gut feeling. The point is that no matter how confident or "logical" your are (this does not apply only to bitcoin), at the end you are jumping on a pool of unknown depth. If you do not think so, you have not thought this over enough.

Regarding your system, is full of pitfalls - I would not find time to list. Ok, letīs follow your "system" on a long trend bear market, but not permabear necessarely.

t=1 month   spread 100                               bitcoin price 1000
t=2 month   spread 70 (1st time)                   bitcoin price 900
t=3 month   spread 100                                bitcoin price 950
t= 4 month  spread 70                                  bitcoin price 800
t= 5 month  spread 100                                 bitcoin price 850
t= 6 month  spread 70 (you buy)                   bitcoin price 800
t=7  month  spread 100                                bitcoin price 400   ----- you have lost 4/8
t=8 month  spread 100                                 bitcoin price 300 --- you are down 5/8

t= future (if you know then you have a cristal ball).

etc. So, you can do well with your system as long as the price is rising long term. I see merit on you buying strategy as at least will take the "timing" out of your "gut decission", it is just not purely logic and infalible IMO.

There are quite a few other pitfalls on the "strategy", the problem is that you get a good result due to a secular bull market for BTC, so you think you have a robust system. You donīt.

You also think you have considered the risk because is just a portion of your savings. You have only considered one risk (concentration of investments).

The good thing is that it is making you believe that you are using logic, so no "bravery" involved, etc... to go ahead with it and thus, you think it is not required.

TBH that is something that bitcoin has done for many people who just do not overthink stuff... kind of like having kids or buying a house: if you are too stupid you canīt and if you are too smart (plus lacking balls) there is never a perfect moment.

Good Hodling, I have spent too much time on this tread am I am certain that no system of trading works forever... except perhaps those by Renaissance Technologies.







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