This might be a real smart strategy but its also just a trade, we all know the Dollar decline is set almost by design now and they cant reverse it.  They cant reverse QE properly, debt cant/wont be repaid, the closing of the fiscal deficit seems unlikely so we're in a really leaky boat but I agree the Dollar can rise in theory just from volatility.    FED is not in control, that part is the illusion and if we ever see the obvious stated that FED is not the master of this situation then genuine panic occurs.   We have the perception FED can control it so the music plays on, I think this only works while people can believe 0% interest rates and other apparitions that will keep appearing are just fine.  The people are the economy, its not a puppet show and it has to work to the benefit of the people or things go badly; FED has one tool which is to loosen monetary policy.
  Other arguments for Dollar strength would be government repaying debt, or exports rising also raising dollar demand and the final thing is dollar demand from buyers of the debt but this story is way overdone and there is an excess of debt and QE.    I've been watching Dollar index and its failed to break upwards, its part of why we rose and markets generally from end of July so its weaker year on year from that and it has tested and attempted higher already so far as I can see.   Saying that DXY, UUP or whatever ticker is just about trying for higher on Dollar now then July so lets see if it can do what it failed in April which is breaking past the levels of a year ago July August I want to see confirm its a stronger dollar now then back then; if this occurs maybe bearish scenarios have better reasoning.
  I think this move itself is speculative on FED tightening, ultimately I dont believe they can or what occurs is ongoing dollar dilution and lower value ie. inflation exceeds rates.   DXY also is a measure of FIAT ratios not value vs real costs.

Near term BTC might going down a bit I expect a pullback but this plan for a hard sell is far too bearish.   I agree on the hype take, that always happens there is froth in the price.    Theres a whole range of possibilities but anything near 30k was a buy I reckon just for this year, higher then that for longer term is quite probable.


We did that in 2020 so thats the touch thats not going to occur every year, thats the real in extremis view.   Everyone wants to buy there, thats why it doesnt occur often; you know this by correlating it to the news event that came with it.   I sure hope we arent being pushed in that way again so often

Its got resistance but we dont know how much it comes back and that matters as to whether its worth being negative beyond immediate near term trades.   I think on this chart we do put in a red weekly bar now and lose this change of just rising consistently



Red bar showing right now is still in formation, I'm just thinking a minor close possibly is fair given the rise prior.  Blue line is the long term year average which I dont think we have any reason currently to believe we test this year.

Heroic have the team work but Vitality have the names of the best players in the world, French teams have failed to capitalize on talent for years now;  odds are probably correct to respect the teamwork.   I will just go 3 maps because some of these results throw me like ENCE beating Astralis in 2 maps is a parallel universe event but I guess its feasible with a new team arrangement and ENCE I just dont know well enough to judge. 
  Further confirmed just now by Spirit losing badly to ENCE even on the sacred Dust2 which is practically their home turf but today they played it like it was a patch of no mans land; an epic 11 round difference loss.  Odds for that side bet would have been very high.

My negative outlook has us below weekly average and probably the trend for prior weeks, I dont know it'll especially sell massively but just watching with a bias towards seeing price weaker.

  This is the Euro price but equates to the rough picture for dollar and other currencies, 42k in Dollars is perhaps a fair downside target for now.   Not sure we'd go as far as the 50 day average, that would match lows for August so far and is not that negative overall either.  Right this moment price is moving positively upwards from recent low, need to judge the strength of this bounce back.

The answer for that should be fairly obvious though its just my view but if they have a captcha then they want you the person to be there taking part in that activity and its a problem if you try to bypass that so expect trouble.   Like very often people pop up complaining they collected the faucet on multiple accounts and its not fair, they played it like a game to beat or hack etc. but thats not how it works and its not a win if breaking something in your favor and I encounter that attitude very often.  Its for 1 person to collect hourly if they like no more no less its very simple idea that somehow lasted years when most other similar sites disappeared like the dinosaurs.


I didnt use up my recent wheel spins as I had slight idea trend up could hesitate here and we go back down a little in a pullback.   So in nominal sense I get a couple more sats that way, so its very viable scenario but I've been tricked by chart action doing loops before.  Something like 42k I was thinking, its just this 200 day average being a yoyo for price as we orbit its influence is my impression I dont know we're negative or especially reversing some of the recent gains just yet.

Profit taking for sure and thats normal, doesnt mean its harsh resistance as buying also can be continual and result in progress through this price and higher.    However its fairly predictable that price will take a rest on gains as alot of speculators arent true holders just participating for the price difference to profit short term.   We are likely to meet resistance, perhaps pullback but also circle return and repeat this price action before finally resolving in future; how long that takes is the hard bit.

Awesome how people are always so sure, me Im about as sure of direction as a man who just spun 50 times and tries to walk straight.  BTC is so volatile I dont know how people are that sure in short term calls, even if bearish how would we know that it doesnt go higher.   World just isnt that obvious and predictable imo despite it all seeming clear in retrospect.    We seem likely to pullback here but I think its only a small amount in the bigger scheme and I also have to note Im generally too negative amidst a good uptrend and its fair we are very likely in a good uptrend having beaten the prior selling.   I dont get any great negative view at this moment beyond trading ideas.

I think similar but the wider picture and pressure on price will come from inflows vs supply and to really get a higher price also likely needs momentum to develop.   We do have some of that, in a slow and steady way the 50 and 200 averages are both higher each day because price is accumulating and so that helps.    Perhaps the 50 day needs to be placed above the 200 day for full speed ahead, I think its below presently; I'm not too fussy on this but its not a bad point that speed requires some time to select the right gear to proceed forward and upwards with inertia on our side.
   'Only' 4 months left, 2022 is a better bet tbh

Respect of the resistance right now would mean we cross back under the 200 day average which I reckon would reset us back a week to around 42k.    That might not happen but if we go merely sideways it still means we lose momentum and likely traders retract some of their speculative trades, usually that would mean a lower price.  Doesnt have to occur exactly that way but a pullback is quite likely, I then expect some recovery after that.

I agree but Im mostly on the 3 maps so its already ok now.
Spirit being especially good on Dust2 is something I forgot, probably applies to any Russian team tbh.   If Russia didnt love the map, it might have been removed from the main cycle already.
  Now I'm thinking about it, its not ridiculous they could get a win on Ancient so odds nearly 4 to 1 for the 3rd map in Spirit's favor was a decent option.   Newer maps favor aim and less considered plays, tactics then normal regular mainstream; they barely touched dust2 outside of aesthetics for fear of altering cs lore in this way.  Overpass was considered new for years so Im sure Ancient definitely still is.

Its not impossible, its highly unlikely given the ongoing easy monetary policy however its possible as a final low in the move overall which might be this year or beyond that.   I dont think it'll occur but it pays to be aware of possible swings, the crowd can turn.   If we drained all speculative money out of BTC, the tide would go out and the landscape resemble something quite different to how we view things right now.
   If we got Federal interest rates back to 5% we'd be in entirely different times and probably altered base prices for many asset types.  I say 5% because that is the very long term norm and we are living in zero gravity right now comparatively but sure sub 20k is not going to happen afaik.

FOMO froth is not especially apparent right now, we do have momentum with some resistance it could pullback moderately and still remain bullish.    Just waiting to see which way it'll go, Dollar index isnt doing much but general market has some apathy as to further gains possible.



Most obviously if we do trade below 200 day then 42k is about my near term target downside and I still think thats just a wavering situation rather then especially negative or harsh rejection of these higher prices.

Bears got wrecked, I hope they can get upto speed.   Pretty disheartening but not totally unexpected, hopefully they are able to handle it and present more of a fight.

Spirit vs Astralis is interesting odds, 3 maps and bet on Astralis I think presuming they have been doing their due diligence not just winging it.  I really expect them to be the most reliable team for practice etc. so we'll see but they been through some changes so who knows.

Its hitting the weekly average on the lows recently which means the price points will collide at some point and in theory we get a resolution upwards or downwards.



I'd expect us to check back at 42k or so to get a proper solid foothold with some volume but BTC can just drift higher sometimes and I tend to be too negative in comparison to that frequent positive action.

There is a reasonable argument that the tax is to pay for future costs to those activities.   Most obvious would be smoking which has no toll for years until in later decades the person may have trouble breathing, cancer and all sorts of negatives like heart disease and many other costs to society, the person, their ability to work and also healthcare costs in countries that provide healthcare for all.   That would be quite justified as we now know smoking has a very great cost in accumulation due to addiction and repetition.

I dont class gambling as such a negative thing, the vast majority of people are just playing a game and I think only a minority could become dependent in some way perhaps.   However its reasonable to tax to a small extent, not excessively but in a small reasonably competitive manner that is justified by the legal support of that government and nations infrastructure.   I have no belief in excessive levels of tax for any product really, it only encourages business to occur elsewhere instead.

There was an attempt by UK clubs and some clubs in Europe also to create their own super division, it failed and wasnt legal anyway.   Fans never wanted them to become some elitist super circuit of only the richest clubs however the tv rights (globally) for such a thing would be very lucrative hence why they attempted it despite never getting proper permission from the FA.   Madrid would have to rename at least and relocate, really doesn't make any sense bar the money aspect but I really doubt such a thing.

Price bouncing off the weekly average at the moment, 4hr bars is usually a good measure of strength in a day to day timeline we are still quite positive while above that measure imo.



Also have to note the lows of today match quite closely to the 200 day average, actually thats probably the more important reason.
  I'm still looking for some bearish avenue, a pullback of some kind but I'am very often too negative not respecting the overall direction however pullbacks are healthy in building volume and help build eventual highs greater then otherwise might accumulate so I do expect that to occur.

Alot of people have no trust for government, especially when the party in power is not one they voted for.  In this way its quite normal for at least half of a country to question anything stated by an opposing power to which they believe in.   The unfortunate problem is when knowledge is lost because of distrust and the state is not independent of any corruption by various ideologies that create noise in any news.  Its not rare, the world all over has this dynamic.

People gamble everywhere, we need to get away from the idea its not a normal thing.  But within a highly religious governed nation such as that I doubt its offically sanctioned or especially allowed in normal procedure.  I'd be surprised if gambling wasnt occurring anyway but not quite so openly.   Every society has a variety of views not just the mainstream in power.

 Here in the west its normal to gamble and is often part of the fiscal budget as a form of voluntary tax though its not seen that way.  Gambling is quite essential to provide funding as a game and luxury type tax even while being state run in this way it becomes some positive to freedoms the west allows.
https://us.cnn.com/2021/08/14/us/south-carolina-man-wins-lottery-twice-trnd/index.html

The harm of risk, we will endeavor to wrap every person in cotton wool to prevent any possible negatives from real life.  A load of nonsense that is repeated continually in modern life, gambling is normal.   Far better is to act positively and teach all people how to money manage their budgets in multiple ways, credit cards do far more damage then the concept of risk and gambling on that risk.