Buffet only invests in assets that produce something and yield dividends. He says if there is no dividend then it is not an investment but only a price speculation, or gambling. He needs to have two sources of gain: the price increase and the dividends, not just one - the price increase.  His main MO is buy and hold, never sell, and just collect dividends.

My case for a crash, or large correction:

1. We have not yet seen a correction to the 1D long ema. This happens multiple times during each bubble.
2. There is a bearish wedge on the chart since the ATH break.
3. The volume and percentage gain on each breakout keeps getting successively lower. Volume is very low now.
4. A huge amount of coins were transferred today. This can be indicative of sellers transferring to exchanges. So far it has been good at predicting each correction.
5. There is virtually no ask depth now anywhere, and now when any amount is added there is a panic.
6. Bid depths are not increasing at a rate proportional to the price movement. Bitstamp has stopped gaining at all since 2 weeks ago. It is dropping actually.

The low percentage up movements don't seem to be worth the risk now.

holy shit here comes the crash:

You're saying btc is just going to go straight up without any major corrections? Look at the previous bubbles: that doesn't happen - there are always corrections that hit the daily ema. There is a big difference between a news driven panic sale, and a new 3B of market cap that needs to be redistributed.

Possibilities:

$370: Short daily ema + wall on gox - small correction

$300: Long daily ema + larger depth on gox: -large correction

$230: October trendline + 3d ema + gigantic depth on gox - full crash

Hourly indicator is going down. If theres another drop the next one will not be pretty.

This is your last chance.

It appears that arrangements of daily candles like this during previous bubbles result in a correction bouncing off of the daily long ema (now $300).

Why do people assume that this is going to be another march/April style 800% bubble? You are forgetting that back then the time in between the last ATH of $32 was an entire 2 years of consolidation. This time it was only 6 months. Were likely to see a 2012 style increase instead.

My impression is that selling now isn't as dangerous as it was weeks ago. Were definitely crashing into the 300s at some point - the question is when and from how high.

Some say a lot of coins moving through the block chain means a crash is coming.

I am closing my margin positions indefinitely now for the remainder of the rally. I might use it to trade short correction bounces but not for holding.

The trend looks weak. Kind of like a bearish wedge on H4. That breakout was on low volume and didn't go very far. It might be time for a deeper correction back to the trendline from october. Hopefully not further.

When I read something like this my first thought is that a crash is right around the corner.

There were not one but three crash days in April (down to $50). $260 to $100 was just the part where they vaprorized the area with low bid depth and $100 to $50 is where the real whale dumping was done. I would imagine that between all crash days 500000btc were dumped. Now if we only hit $50 in April, and bit coin has grown significantly since then, my new estimate would be $150.

Single digits is just ridiculous. At $10, the entire lot could be bought by one investor for $5 million, and probably would. Several of these types of investors have been buying in the present levels.

Bitfinex used to trade on gox too until goxs issues.

What did bitcoinity do at $400 and $420?

100 million dollar pizza.

Jeez look at all these bears saying "double digits", "$0", "the end of bitcoin". Nobody is getting angry at them. I said $150! I guess I'm actually the most bullish person here.

I wouldn't like 10,000 much. The volatility would probably be mostly gone and I make much more profit by trading than just holding.