It really depends on how and where you sell it.

If you dump it on an exchange, the price drops to about 10% of the current price. You'd have to be pretty silly to do that, but you could if you wanted to. People have dumped large amounts on the exchange before in anger trying to destroy the market. All that happened was a bunch of people got to buy some cheap CLAMs and the price recovered.

If you win 80k CLAM the max profit doesn't change much at all. Investors only risk 0.5% of their total effective investment, so the max profit would go down by 400 from 81.3k to 80.9k. If you won another 80k then a bunch of investors would be margin called and the max profit would drop significantly.


What's a reasonable amount of CLAM? The poloniex exchange is showing 4700 CLAM traded for BTC in the last 24 hours. Is that reasonable? I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. I don't have any trouble trading CLAM for BTC at all. People are almost always happy to trade it at the market price off-exchange because that way they avoid fees and slippage.


And yet here we are, mentioning it. Do you have any real points? CLAM is clearly used on gambling sites and is working as intended. It's nothing like Zynga or Pokerstars money.


BTC is more easily exchanged for other currencies than CLAM is of course. That doesn't mean that 182 BTC is worth more than 80k CLAM. It would probably take you a while to find buyers for 80k CLAM, but I would be surprised if you didn't get at least twice as much as 182 BTC for it. I recently escrowed a private transaction in which someone bought 10k CLAM for 65 BTC. The price hasn't moved much at all since then. At that rate 80k CLAM would sell for 65*8 = 520 BTC. Even if they only got half that they would still be getting more than the 182 BTC max bet at PRC.


I would get into this with you, but:


so I guess I won't bother. Needless to say you're wrong.

I randomized your seed before telling you about your future rolls, just so I wouldn't forget and leave them in place. At the time I wasn't thinking I'd bring the site back up, but better safe than sorry.

I didn't randomize anyone else's seeds, because I didn't see the need. It's only been a problem once so far, where romerun was confused why his first CLAM bet had a nonce of 2 (it's because he made the nonce 1 bet for BTC).

To simplify things, suppose we're doing a 50/50 bet, and we bust if we lose 3 times in a row. Let's say it pays out 2x, so there's a 0% house edge too.

Like you say, we might play 1000 times without hitting 3 losses in a row, or we might lose the first 3 plays and bust straight away.

What we're interested in here is what is the probability of any particular martingale sequence busting.

Well, it busts if we get 3 losses in a row, and each play is independent and loses with probability 1/2, so the probability of busting is 1/8. Every time we play, we have a 1/8 chance of busting, and a 7/8 chance of winning. So 7 times out of 8 we win 1 unit, and 1 time out of 8 we lose 1+2+4 = 7 units. That all sounds right, since total losses = total wins.

I didn't have to use the binomial distribution anywhere - I just raised the probability of losing a single play by the number of plays it takes to bust me. 1/2 ^ 3 = 1^8.

If you were to ask "how many times do we expect to win 1 unit before we bust?" or "how many times do we expect to bust if we make 1000 plays?" then the math gets difficult. Note, however, that neither of these questions are what we're looking at. We're just looking at our expected profits from playing the game.

I got mixed up in a bet about this kind of stuff a while ago, betting on the existence or otherwise of a streak of a certain length the JD bet history. I'm still not sure how lucky I was to win that bet given the probabilities involved.


I think the biggest mistake was that you used 19.x instead of 20.x as the stake multiplier, making it look like your bust cost you less than it actually would have. If you use the 20.x figure instead you'll find that your expected losses when you bust are greater than the sum of your expected wins.

People have asked about it before, but I don't think it would really work. The house edge is only 1%, and 90% of that goes to the investors. That means that the site only takes 0.1% of turnover on average. Affiliate programs usually pay way more than that, so we just can't compete.

You're welcome to refer people anyway, since now that you're invested you'll get a share of anything they lose. But I don't think a referral program is worth doing. I hate affiliate links in general anyway. It just encourages people to spam places.


Ha!

BayAreaCoins made some pretty big bets today on the site. He was up over 3000 on the day when he started betting 1 CLAM at 1%, trying to hit the 99x payout. After a bunch of losses he upped his bet to 2 CLAM, 5 CLAM, 10 CLAM. After 239 losing bets rolling 'hi' at 1% he gave up and switched to betting 1000 CLAMs at 49.5%, lo. And guess what... the very next roll was a 99.x and the 1% would finally have hit. He stopped playing exactly at the wrong time, at the end of a 239 bet losing streak:



It's lucky we're provably fair because nobody would believe it otherwise.

JD allows you to specify "offsite investment" - funds you have access to, but didn't yet deposit.

Investors risk up to 0.5% of their total investment (onsite + offsite) per roll.

Some investors claim huge "offsite" amounts. Some of them are presumably lying about the funds they have available, but that's OK.

It's worth repeating that you should move any Bitcoin from that address before claiming the CLAM.

The /dig command described above sends your private key to Just-Dice, and so in theory Just-Dice could steal any BTC at that address.

It won't, but it's better to be safe than sorry. And if your blockchain.info wallet gets hacked I don't want you thinking that it was JD that did it!

So please only use /dig with privatekeys that you have already "retired".

Edit: I see you modified your post to include that warning in bold at the end while I was making this post. Thanks!

Most trading happens off the exchanges, as you well know. People don't leave their CLAMs idling in exchange orderbooks. CLAM is proof-of-stake, so they tend to be left somewhere that pays staking rewards. Like the JD bankroll for instance.

Note also I said "at the current price".

Do you not see that by missing out the word "Bitcoin" it turns your statement into a lie?

JD's max profit is bigger than PRC's. It's more than double in fact. So claiming that PRC has the highest is just plain wrong.

Similarly for the other guy, who claims that PRC is the longest running site with "investment" because I'm a caricature? Pretty weak.

I don't think you need the binomial distribution.


Your error is that you need to multiply your bet by 20.3877551, not 19.38x. If you multiply by less than 20 your net profit will be smaller the longer your streak, and it will be negative if the streak is long enough.

To calculate how much you need to increase your bet to keep the same net profit:

>>> edge = 0.001
>>> chance = 0.95
>>> (1 - edge) / (1 - edge - chance)
20.3877551020408

... and I thought *our* customer service was bad!

No, you don't need to download any of the blockchain to import a private key.

But you won't see your free 4.6 CLAMs until you have downloaded the block that awarded them to you.

The awards started in block 558 and ended in block 9262.

After pointing out how the game is exploitable and the house edge is incorrect, I received the following two private messages:



The link in the first one  seems to be an ad for the movie "Pusher" (2010). Maybe it's a threat? Maybe he's going to make me watch a movie that only gets 6 stars at IMdb?

I'm not sure I understand what he's asking me to be honest about. It *is* possible to cheat, the edge *isn't* 0%, and the bible *isn't* a rebuttal to such facts. If you feel I'm being dishonest about anything, please point out specifically what.

Sorry to spam up this thread with facts, but that's incorrect too.

Just-Dice has a maximum profit of 80,000 CLAM. That's worth over 500 BTC at the current price.

That seems rude. The site and I are both the same as we were before, except the site switched currencies and I got a year older.

What are you suggesting?

This isn't the balloon guy again, no way.

That site was beautifully designed, and this one isn't designed at all.

Just-Dice isn't cheating. It is provably fair.

Provide evidence to back up your claim or GTFO.

I admit it. I lied. Your site doesn't really suck donkey balls. Not literally. On account of it being a website, and not having a mouth.

Please forgive me.

It's funny you should say that.

Someone calling themselves "cowpie" hit the 198000x bet at Just-Dice just today...

23:11:38 (39903) <cowpie> doog, tell deb her lucky clam produced a perfect roll 50814064

Well I'm glad we got that sorted out.

I do not bad-mouth.
I only say what is true.
Site sucks donkey balls.