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4121  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency (mandatory upgrade) on: September 04, 2014, 03:42:33 PM
Wouldn't it be best to let weak hands dump and long term believers buy at discounted prices than artificially holding the price up?

With price-discovery in the markets, the definition of "artificial" is vague. In one sense, the decline from 510 to 400 and below was "artificial" (if we assume it was, at least partly, a product of preknowledge of the coming attack and speculation that it would further hurt the price). In the other sense, the essence of markets is that all knowledge is taken into account, information is not perfect, and seldom even the best informed players have access to many information that some of the others have, in turn.

If we discount the last week downturn altogether, the price should be much higher by now. The attack failed - it could not damage the confidence towards XMR, it exposed the old scammers more, and proved how capable the devteam is. "Rolling back" the preparation of the attack from price history would lift us to 600 by tomorrow.

But if the market collectively decides that a selloff is in order, we might find ourselves at 300 instead. That some buyers openly like XMR at 400, is no more artificial than others vowing in the trollbox that they will sell every one of theirs, at whatever price they can get once the trading starts. Depending who will prevail, buying at 400 may be the last opportunity to buy at 400, or the last opportunity to sell at 400. Most likely, given the meager actual effect of the attack, it won't be neither, and anyone making decisions based on what others have already done, is just impoverishing himself as a result.

I have a largish number of XMR and BTC in the exchange, ready to react. But my reaction will be to buy if the price goes down, and sell if it goes up. This is my way of making slow and steady profit. Others have their way, and without panickers, my income would be significantly lower.
4122  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency (mandatory upgrade) on: September 04, 2014, 03:14:17 PM
Oh well price will obviously fall. Price will obviously come back. The time frame that this will happen is unclear. One things is sure. Panic sellers and panic buyers will lose...

I believe that MP and the XMR markets on Poloniex have operated continuously with no substantive price movement.  The moonshot may resume uninterrupted.

Mintpal price is about 0.00415 now, HitBTC was frozen at 0.00380 after some had dumped on low volume (2,500 XMR) at the last moment.

All I ask is that the most reputable and highest-volume exchange, Poloniex, would:
- announce the resumption of trading at least 1 hour in advance;
- allow traders to enter orders during this time;
- arrange a market-clearing procedure at the moment when the trading starts, so that the existing bids and asks that coincide, would be matched with each other at the midprice that clears all of them, to not favor sellers or buyers.
4123  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread on: September 04, 2014, 02:37:45 PM
xmr has been trading in the xmr-denominated markets on poloniex, and against btc on mintpal, but price has not moved significantly.

i don't think this attack will even interrupt the uptrend in any meaningful way.  it may even be a catapult, like SR bust was for BTC.

I did not think that my respect for the Monero core team could rise any more,

but last night certainly proved me wrong:


Thank you eizh, fluffypony, David, tacotime, NoodleDoodle, othe and smooth!
4124  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency (mandatory upgrade) on: September 04, 2014, 02:32:10 PM
We win if we manage to COOPERATE efficiently (even if we don't trust each other - that's the whole point of the Byzantine Generals problem).

Something related to this is coming to Monero. No other coins currently have it. Expect to hear more from it in a few days even..
4125  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread on: September 04, 2014, 11:43:00 AM
If there is such panic, why no significant dumps on hitbtc or Mintpal?

I doubt there is much dumping so long as the dev team rises to the challenge.

I love dumps. Lots of panic buying on the way back up.

I'm surprised that the price on mintpal is remaining stable.

In Poloniex alone, there are 5000+ monero accounts, add all the other exchanges to the number. USA is sleeping. This thread is visited by 100 people. Maybe not BTC->XMR people, but everyone else coming to Monero, has seen forks before and don't care.
4126  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: September 04, 2014, 11:39:59 AM
Please quote my newer post about taking back anything that can even be understood as being an attack against BBR/dev.

Or else your post may be found a little misleading.. Roll Eyes

Your newer post offering a correction is misleading as it masks the train of thought that you have been engaged in for the past couple of months and perpetuated via brown nosing minions. Sure what you said couple of hours can be "taken back" as it might have been a heat of the moment thing, but the thought process is left for interpretation.

Anyways, smooth recommended we do not engage in coin vs coin debates. I agree with him. I just wish your minions do not force themselves into conversation. I had a legitimate set of questions for aminorex and would have preferred to have the dialogue with him, but just like we have seen for the last few months, a minion has to stick his leg and create a scene in order to prove his minionness.

Your whole existence is dependent on the per post payment, you were created after the latest high to give an appearance that there is a host of people wishing XMR to nonexist, yet simultaneously trying to give an impression that it is insignificant.

I don't know anyone who enjoys your posting, except the Cheesus-Hexah sockpuppet line that like each other's posts as quickly as it is possible to log out and in.
4127  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: September 04, 2014, 11:16:25 AM
Please quote my newer post about taking back anything that can even be understood as being an attack against BBR/dev.

Or else your post may be found a little misleading.. Roll Eyes
4128  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency (mandatory upgrade) on: September 04, 2014, 10:55:11 AM
Noobish question: Does all this new information mean that this "tx-fork bug" only caused a simple -not very enduring- fork? That's all it did? If so, is that a major problem, or simply something that can be fixed easily?


Sometimes noobish questions are the best.

4129  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: September 04, 2014, 09:42:38 AM
We don't have much time remaining:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/09/03/ecuador-will-be-the-first-country-to-start-digital-currency/

Powers-that-be are also taking control over Buttcoin, with mining centralized in a couple of pools, and soon the money supply locked up off-chain:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=400235.msg8649126#msg8649126
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=400235.msg8663871#msg8663871

And your remedy to the situation is what? First of all, I am a little surprised of your continued compliance. We would not need any coins if all the people just decided that enough is enough. The problem is not economy, it is the perpetrators of injustice.
4130  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency (mandatory upgrade) on: September 04, 2014, 09:38:21 AM
Now I realize what was the reason for the mid-move turn back at 510 and the quite strong selling towards 400, which was not supported by fundamentals or anything.

The attackers have taken a short position during the decline (causing the decline), and when they run out of coins, the price also stopped declining. When it started going up, it was the time to attack.

Now if the holders sell their coins so that the price drops to below 400, without corresponding buyers except the attackers, then the attackers have won financially, fleecing the community. (The community has also won, because the bug was fixed and attack repelled.)

I pledge 1000 XMR to the devs for their ongoing good work, and BTC100 will be used to buy moneros in the exchange without further warning if I deem that the scamattackers are about to get too fat a profit from their attack.
4131  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency (mandatory upgrade) on: September 04, 2014, 09:11:29 AM
...
It has even been mentioned that BBR should increase in price as a result from an attack towards XMR code (which BBR itself also uses). This proposal is ridiculous, because either it has the same vulnerability and the attack was just directed to the more prominent coin, or BBR will suffer the same attack soon or be already suffering it without even noticing, OR that BBR insider(s) are behind the attack.
...

You left out that the probability that changes in BBR's code already made it not vulnerable to the attack.  

1. I take back all statements that may be understood as "attacking" BBR or its dev.

2. I am just so used to the "follow the money" detective work, where I have concluded that the only possible source for the attack on XMR is the (B)CN scamdevs. It's like 9/11 - only people high in the U.S. government has both the motive and the means, so since we know it happened, it must have been happened under their direction. It was not my intention to attack the public layer of BBR, that would have been childish.

3. I just want to say to the higher honchos in (B)CN scamteam: "If XMR wins despite all your effort in having a crippled code that you "skillfully repair" in your scamforks, U must be serially mad, bro !!  Grin"
4132  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: September 04, 2014, 08:48:03 AM
OMG! Monero! is it totally broken?  Cry

No need to say the same thing in every thread. Esp. as I know that you're techically lying, i.e. creating an impression of being worried and actually wanting to buy low.
4133  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread on: September 04, 2014, 08:45:24 AM
Speaking of short term prices, I am expecting 0.001 - 0.002 range when this gets sorted out.

Knowing that you are a supporter, you are just talking to your book. Shame on you!  Grin
4134  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency (mandatory upgrade) on: September 04, 2014, 08:29:20 AM
It looks like Mintpal and HitBTC are both still actively trading as well as withdraws and deposits are open.

Trading I can't do anything about. We've tried to contact those exchanges but haven't been able to.

However, I strongly recommend that you do not attempt to do deposits or withdraws

The block chain is a mess right now and there is no way to know what would happen to your coins.

Do not engage in any transactions at this time

I got in touch with freeworm and he says he froze XMR at bter
Let me know when it is all clear to resume

James

Signed:
James, the concerned, helpful helper!

I got also in touch with HitBtc, urging them to stop withdrawals and trading. Further, I offered my time to help the Monero devs. I also decided to keep the options markets open so you can still hedge (although I am afk for the next 6 hours mostly).

This thread and poloniex trollbox are very full of otherwise not so prominent or active people that are now speaking doom concerning XMR. If they don't short it themselves (difficult), they either get paid for the FUD, or want the price to tank to buy back lower. Otherwise it does not make sense.

It has even been mentioned that BBR should increase in price as a result from an attack towards XMR code (which BBR itself also uses). This proposal is ridiculous, because either it has the same vulnerability and the attack was just directed to the more prominent coin, or BBR will suffer the same attack soon or be already suffering it without even noticing, OR that BBR insider(s) are behind the attack.

Note to newcomers: BBR is the only (non-XMR) cryptonote coin that is not conclusively proven to be lead by the original CN scamteam Wink

Any way I got in touch with XMR devs, result:
- no rollback necessary
- everything is asked to be halted because a non-standard block got to the blockchain and reason needs to be figured out
- When I asked "what exactly makes this a problem from a client side?", he said "because it appears to have caused a fork thereafter - we're busy investigating"

4135  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Unveiling the truth over the major Monero scam on: September 04, 2014, 08:03:25 AM
Now the troll has happily fallen on my trolling. Well done, me!  Grin
4136  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Marketplace (Altcoins) / Re: XMR futures/options OTC thread on: September 03, 2014, 08:49:34 PM
I am lending BTC and XMR for speculation, but only against 150% guarantee in the other coin. So there IS an actual opportunity to leverage also without buying the options.

The APR we are talking about is 5-10%, in addition comes a one-time setup fee.
4137  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: September 03, 2014, 06:59:36 PM
Poloniex is registered with USA FINCen nationally as an MSB in the state of Montana.
If they stay in compliance, and don't get in hot water with the SEC, they should be OK unless the legal landscape changes.

True.  But I think the "ICO" is very clearly in violation of the law.  This creates a liability when they are sued by investors who lose money as a result.

Once it happened to me that I was a large but not majority ~15% owner in a private company. The owners, me included, decided to sell shares in proportion to our holdings, to people who were interested. There are certain rules in the law how the company may carry out new private issues but nothing regulating people selling their own shares. We made a prospectus-of-sorts just to give information to the prospective buyers. When the SEC-equivalent of Finland learned about it, several months after the round was completed with no problems, they decided that the law is extended to cover the sale where the company did play no part, so that the prospectus was found faulty, and as a result the company must offer 100% buyback to anyone who so wishes. As president of the company, it was quite a chore to manage the situation where the stock had lost about 20% of the value, giving the lower morality ones among our shareholders just enough incentive to force a buyback.

The case caused me to lose any respect towards the organization pulling such a trick. If they regard me as scum, so be it both ways.

There is no limit whatsoever these sad clowns will do if we let them. They can make any laws and when they are not convenient, change them, amend them, or just act irrespective of them. The less people resist this fuckery, the easier it is for them to continue. The first point of realization would be to realize that any use of force or threat thereof, towards your freedom, is a crime. On their part, not yours.

ADD: The money we were talking about, in total, was about $100k. The government agencies have the apparent luxury of utterly disregarding any sanity in what they pursue, with their only punishment coming in the next age when righteousness reigns.
4138  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Marketplace (Altcoins) / Re: XMR futures/options OTC thread on: September 03, 2014, 05:10:30 PM
Contrarily, if you're just expecting lots of volatility (relative to IV of the put you'd be buying), then XMR + Put is the best position available (long straddle/strangle could be argued as well depending on your upside bias/vol expectation).

(I think you probably understand these things already, but others may not.)

I have the plan to start offering discount pricing on straddle/strange etc. strategies that require the purchase of 2-3 options for one position. Currently I need to ask so high spreads that those don't work at all. The high spreads are due to manual work and (still) quite bad liquidity of the underlying. Typically I would want to hedge the option with a purchase or sale of the underlying, the same amount as the option premium. But this 3000 XMR action can move the underlying by 5% or even more, necessitating a high spread! (And this does not even count the case where the buyer goes to manipulate the market right after buying the option, denying me of profitable hedging. This has not happened so far but will Smiley )

Offering discount on positions that are easy to hedge for me and don't make the administrative work any larger would make sense.
4139  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: September 03, 2014, 04:10:39 PM
Sure. But unless you have a huge quantity of coins to sell, you cannot force it down by more than a few 0.00001s.

My interpretation on the situation is that it does make sense for latent buyers to buy because there is little to gain even from huge dumps (except if you arrange your buys as bid walls that the others have also done, aggravating the bid/ask imbalance). By waiting you win very little even if you are right. The walls are very real, nothing has been pulled during the downtrend.

I remember when 0.00334 was being defended with huge walls, after bouncing from that area many times. A huge dump ensued, taking it down to 0.00290 (lowest daily average was 0.00305, this is a better measure if you actually needed to try to buy that low). So a gain of less than 10% for the patient waiters.

If we just scale the numbers, the dump case now would be that 50k XMR get sold quickly to force the price from 0.00394 to 0.00342 as its lowest point, but the average for the lowest day would be 0.00360. This would scale very well with the ascending lows trend of 175-231-290-342, so would not be an impossible outcome (quite probable, actually) but also in no way "bad". Remember - it's only -10%, and nobody compels you to sell at a loss! Smiley

The upside is much more than 10%, and the resistance to get there is much smaller. I give this scenario a higher percentage as a result.

A shameless repost, I think this was a good analysis and would like to hear comments.
Don't think it's a good analysis. We have been up and visisted 0.005 at least 2 times now on the shorter time frame, 4 times on the larger one. The big holders of XMR have already had their chance to sell.

There is nothing alarming that would make anyone sell now. Frankly I think it's just daytraders selling, a lot of small fishes, trading in order to increase their XMR holdings.

Am I so unclear that you interpret my post as an:
- exhortation to sell?
- analysis that a dump is likely?

I have bolded the relevant parts, that in my opinion (and intention) support the view that despite there is a large but below 50% chance that we are sold into, it is still profitable to buy.
4140  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: September 03, 2014, 03:28:06 PM
Sure. But unless you have a huge quantity of coins to sell, you cannot force it down by more than a few 0.00001s.

My interpretation on the situation is that it does make sense for latent buyers to buy because there is little to gain even from huge dumps (except if you arrange your buys as bid walls that the others have also done, aggravating the bid/ask imbalance). By waiting you win very little even if you are right. The walls are very real, nothing has been pulled during the downtrend.

I remember when 0.00334 was being defended with huge walls, after bouncing from that area many times. A huge dump ensued, taking it down to 0.00290 (lowest daily average was 0.00305, this is a better measure if you actually needed to try to buy that low). So a gain of less than 10% for the patient waiters.

If we just scale the numbers, the dump case now would be that 50k XMR get sold quickly to force the price from 0.00394 to 0.00342 as its lowest point, but the average for the lowest day would be 0.00360. This would scale very well with the ascending lows trend of 175-231-290-342, so would not be an impossible outcome (quite probable, actually) but also in no way "bad". Remember - it's only -10%, and nobody compels you to sell at a loss! Smiley

The upside is much more than 10%, and the resistance to get there is much smaller. I give this scenario a higher percentage as a result.

A shameless repost, I think this was a good analysis and would like to hear comments.
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