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The 1000 walls that pop up on gox and stamp are my role models.
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BTC will eventually fail and go to $0... There's my bearish input.
But until then, good luck trading when you wait till btc is at its "true value". You will not make many trades and might even wait forever. It might very well never go below 300 again. There seems to be a nice support here. We just broke ATH and the bubble has only just begun.
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I don't understand the psychology of some people...they panic sell even when there is not even 1 single bad new in press. I understanded the panic sell after ddos attacks or end of silk road, here it is just speculation in its pureness, right?..Bitcoin must change these pure speculators to long time believers in cryptocurrency and they have to learn actually use the bitcoin as a currency, not just as get rich quick scheme. Until than....we are not even close to going mainstream.
However, i noticed btcchina was repeatedly down today...do you think it could have some effect on the price drop?
What makes you think it's a panic ? You don't think some people sold in panic?...i don't think it was only people cashing out to take profits...i think many people are still in some level expecting big crashes and are scared by every 1% movement...especially now when we were reaching new ath almost every day, sooner or later we will come to a point (in some way, i believe it happened today, just in small version) where people will be more and more nervous as the price of btc (their profit) will become too siginificant to lose this kind of profit...and if you add some #1 exchange was down, many people must think the april is here again. Or do you have different opinion on the 20% drop? No this is someone capitulating about 100K coins. |
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Everyone is just dumping into a solid wall now. It's going to be really slow and now worth the risk.
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Everytime there is a sharp correction like today I take a 2:1 margin position at the bottom on bitfinex (using my btc as collateral). After trading all day and the momentum of the correction seems to be over I close the margin positions, take the profits as btc, and add them to my stash.
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Best move do nothing? Naw how about increase my btc 50%.
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Really don't know what to make of it myself. Been holding fiat since $152. I really can't compare the April crash as I wasn't active during it, but can anyone else who was give opinion? Was the recovery as quick and strong when the price dropped ~£40 during mini dumps etc? I just can't see how this current price could be reversed hard as there is so much money waiting to purchase on every dip.....
Yes everyone is in a hypnosis thinking this way because there aren't any real sellers. Every sell right now (1,000 coins etc) is child's play. During a real crash, about 1,000,000 BTC hit the market. |
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Well, so far volume has been low, not sure what to infer from this.
On the 24th October the volume was very high, maybe today the most volume is still to come?
Yes I guess Oct 24 is a good example. Since there are multiple major exchanges now the volume required is less than 150K on each. Silk road day is another good example. We are due for another one now. |
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I'm not sure what you mean by '150k correction', that could take us down to 50$. A 'normal' correction that should happen very soon could go down to 300$, maybe 280$ (fingers crossed  ). Oops I mean a 150K volume down day. Not one gigantic dump. |
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Well I don't like the charts right now so I've closed the margin positions for a 50% profit and consolidated the profits (and principal) all into organic BTC. I will take new margin positions during a correction.
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I'm not talking about THE crash but the several intermediate 150K corrections that happen during each bubble.
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This is starting to feel heavy.
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It's true. I can feel the weight of 2 billion dollars of new market cap and a bearish divergence on the chart. Even if you look at the log chart the current slope is way too high and fast even by bubble standards. We are due for a major high volume correction. There are historically several of these during each bubble. $300 is likely.
The corrections we have seen so far have been childs play - caused by 500-2K sells. They recover not because there is support but because the seller stopped. What happens when there are 5K sells, or 20K sells.
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If you have a margin position, there are times you need to sell otherwise you will be liquidated. |
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Now they're catching up!!  DBZ is Japanese... Back in the mtgox era I used to think watching mtgox was like watching DBZ. |
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Cool video man. I watched it all yesterday unable to do pretty much anything. Waited for crash that never happened...
There were dips to 280 after 320. Pretty nice opportunity during a rally. |
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Its never too late to buy in an upwards market. The trick is to set a stop loss order at your buy price. Then if it goes down its like nothing happened, but it was better than not acting at all and you had a chance to win.
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Gox is a crazy bot game that fluxes between 0 and 20% from the other exchanges. China is full of crazy people too and follows gox a lot. Btce has deposit issues so its lower but the direction of the price follows gox like a robot. bitstamp is more stable and represents the true price.
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Don't try to catch the overall bottom. Just catch a lot of little bottoms.
This is what I do. I buy a large margin position at the bottom of each correction. Then sell most of it and keep the profits in btc. |
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