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4161  Economy / Speculation / Re: The negative impact of mining farms on: October 27, 2014, 03:35:54 AM
Big players making farms.  Sure.  Everyone can see that.  Specialized silicon that would lead to 1 or 2 large players controlling bitcoin.  No.

The intent was a decentralized peer-to-peer system.  Failing to adapt the core to that end put bitcoin on a path of greater and greater consolidation that will eventually make it vulnerable to a number things and non-viable.  It will be replaced by a version 2.0 that is peer-to-peer decentralized and probably has other fundamental innovations.


Remember there is an economic incentive for players not to collude and respect decentralization of the system.

Moreover you are also underestimating the prospects of commoditized ASICs and development of p2p mining pools.

4162  Economy / Speculation / Re: The negative impact of mining farms on: October 27, 2014, 03:07:47 AM
In one word competition. If it's so profitable what's stopping 100 new asian manufacturer coming online tomorrow at the fraction of the cost and driving hashrate through the roof squeezing those profits? What about Intel entering the market? It's always a risk/reward game you won't see crazy profits for too long, but when you do and first to the game you reinvest to try as grab as big of the pie early on, not hodle because you get way too much money from other business.

So they're not dumping now, and even less likely to dump when market goes up. Perpetual hodlers?? Great business plan with no exit strategy, but even if that's the case and 1% ASIC manufacturers horde up all new coins there's the risk of the other 99% revolting and hard forking you out of the game.

There is nothing stopping them doing it.... In fact there are some doing it at this very moment, have you not seen hashrate going "through the roof" in the last few months?

Again, I fail to see what argument you are trying to make.

Quote
When you do and first to the game you reinvest to try as grab as big of the pie early on, not hodle because you get way too much money from other business

That's exactly what the biggest ones are doing. At the moment, they don't need to sell their Bitcoin to do that.

Do you not understand that them and their backers believe in the technology?

They're going to eat their share of the pie as long as they can sit at the table. They have a business model that allow them to profit and accumulate assets.

Certainly for the majority of them their business model is not substainable. But don't fool yourself that selling their BTC for fiat would change any of that.

Bigger player (Intel) will enter the market once the price of Bitcoin starts appreciating again and grows another order of magnitude. Once that happen, maybe, just maybe, even major first movers like BitFury will be forced out the market but guess what? They will be sitting on thousands of Bitcoin from early days.

Quote
Great business plan with no exit strategy, but even if that's the case and 1% ASIC manufacturers horde up all new coins there's the risk of the other 99% revolting and hard forking you out of the game.

Couldn't make any sense out of this
4163  Economy / Speculation / Re: The negative impact of mining farms on: October 27, 2014, 02:13:10 AM
Sales != profit.

And again you're whole argument seems to be that they're so profitable they can do whatever they want. Even if that the case in one instance, clearly that's not sustainable on a long term scale

Not one instance, most instance.

Tell me exactly how it is not substainable? I should add that most of these companies are now setting up cloud mining services and selling mining contracts at what are most certainly extremely high profit margins.

What is not substainable is this persistent bear market in the face of continuing innovation and development in Bitcoin's infrastructure.

When the price starts shooting up again, these companies will be even less enticed to sell any Bitcoin.

It seems to me you have little to no argument and keep moving the goal posts. I, on the other hand, have brought forward numerous arguments and factual reports to indicate that miners are not all dumping to fiat the BTC they mine.



4164  Economy / Speculation / Re: Please stop the 'manipulation' bullshit. on: October 27, 2014, 01:52:09 AM
@NotLambchop

But, your opinion seems to be that the protocol/technology is valuable, therefore the coins should also be. When more applications are developed for the blockchain and adoption increases, the more valuable the protocol becomes, the more expensive the coins become.

The blockchain can be duplicated as many times and for as many different applications as need be.  Clonecoin.  This particular instance of he technology--the Bitcoin blockchain--is no more elegant than a clone, so not particularly valuable beyond its current sunk capital (miners, etc.) & brand recognition.

If I said automotive technology is valuable to mankind, would you assume I meant Chevy?

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

so you're part of that blockchain not bitcoin clown group heh.

how has clonecoin success worked out so far? when should we expect them to catch up?

sunk capital  Cheesy surely you mean security & infrastructure right?

I thought you were smarter than that, even in your trolling, disappointed  Undecided
4165  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 27, 2014, 01:49:13 AM

In the meantime, as I've said for years, one of bitcoin's biggest hurdles is education. It's remarkably multidisciplinary, and to *truly* get it, you have to understand tech/cs, as well as monetary theory, some econ and history, and have an open-mind to boot. Not a frequent combo, which is why I'm continually amazed that bitcoin has gotten as far as it has in only 5 years.

I've wondered the same thing. That combo is so rare that one can only conclude that the system of incentives is working.

Indeed, a masterful job of bootstrapping by Satoshi.
4166  Economy / Speculation / Re: The negative impact of mining farms on: October 27, 2014, 01:37:08 AM
Bottom line is money has to come from somewhere to cover costs and generate fiat profit. And your argument that they'd rather indefinitely raise capital from VCs to cover their costs rather than sell their own inventory is conceptually flawed. Simple as that.

 Cheesy

You are one stubborn fellow

I know people on this forum tend to be very selective in their reading but did you not read the part where they have made/are making millions selling mining gear or did you conveniently ignore it?

On GAWMiners :
Quote
The company was an overnight success and achieved over $10M in sales during its first month and is on schedule to do $100M in this first year.

KNC :
Quote
Since KnC started in June last year, it has sold bitcoin mining computers worth $75 million.

I can't pull up any numbers for BitFury but my guess is it is more than both these two.

4167  Economy / Speculation / Re: The negative impact of mining farms on: October 27, 2014, 01:20:59 AM
Again the fact that this one time event was so against the norm that it made the news should hint on how the normal course of business goes. Would BitFury selling their inventory to fund new farm made the news??? Think that be considered the normal course of business

 Huh

That was no event. This quote made the news because it was a comment made after the announcement of yet another round of VC funding.

Here's another one from Josh Garza from GAWMiners at Hashers United conference :

Quote
Garza voiced the least concern regarding the price, saying that ultimately, the value of bitcoin is underpinned not so much by the consumers and merchants who use and accept digital currency but by the miners who facilitate the whole network.

“Miners believe in the currency the most,” he said.

More from this conference :

Quote
Terpin polled the crowd by asking how many sell a certain percentage of their bitcoins for fiat currencies like the dollar. One only miner raised their hand when Terpin asked if they sold 100% of their bitcoin for dollars, and about one-third of the crowd indicated that they don’t sell any of their generated bitcoins.

Again, I'm not saying all of the miners keep 100% of their coins but it is naive to believe the majority of them dump their Bitcoins for fiat
4168  Economy / Speculation / Re: The negative impact of mining farms on: October 27, 2014, 01:12:21 AM
Not really a counter, just this: It's possible that nobody who is starting mining now breaks even, even with cheap or stolen electricity. (If you'll assume a constant btc price, free electricity and >2% periodic difficulty increase for instance no consumer miner makes money ever)
In that sense Bitcoin mining is a gamble in it's own and so larger mining farms aren't necessarily more risk-aware.

This is not the case, it certainly is still doable to mine at profit, even at current price

With a theoretical ROI of over a year which is far from certain. If the price tanks even further I'd even say that most of these farms gonna be out of business a year from now.

Sure, that's if you believe the price is still gonna be down a year from now.

They're betting it won't and you can be certain they know more than you about the dynamics of this market.

4169  Economy / Speculation / Re: The negative impact of mining farms on: October 27, 2014, 12:55:59 AM
Not really a counter, just this: It's possible that nobody who is starting mining now breaks even, even with cheap or stolen electricity. (If you'll assume a constant btc price, free electricity and >2% periodic difficulty increase for instance no consumer miner makes money ever)
In that sense Bitcoin mining is a gamble in it's own and so larger mining farms aren't necessarily more risk-aware.

This is not the case, it certainly is still doable to mine at profit, even at current price
4170  Economy / Speculation / Re: The negative impact of mining farms on: October 27, 2014, 12:40:37 AM
Yeah i'm yet to hear a valid counter point to this. Although i don't see them as evil, just part of the ecosystem/capitalism. Hope the halving and a risk of a hard fork if they get out of control would keep them in check.

Quote
BitFury founder and CEO Valery Vavilov indicated that the new funding will allow the company to complete production of its 28nm ASIC chip without selling the reserve bitcoins it has mined from its three industrial-scale data centres.

Quote
Vavilov told CoinDesk that it decided not to tap its bitcoin reserves as it remains bullish on the long-term value of bitcoin.

"We believe in the long-term perspective [the price of bitcoin] will grow and we decided to not to sell [our bitcoin] at such a low price," Vavilov added.
4171  Economy / Speculation / Re: The negative impact of mining farms on: October 27, 2014, 12:31:27 AM
Larger and larger mining farms are not what's increasing selling pressure. To the contrary, the larger the farm the cheaper the electricity and the cheaper the hardware to better the operating margin becomes.
A high operating margin gives miners the option to retain more of the mined Bitcoins while a low operating margin forces the miner to sell or at least get more capital by other means to pay bills.

Mining farms are in the business of mining, not risk taking on currency fluctuation. Once gain if they're so profitable in mining the logical thing is to reinvest that income and expand the profitable mining operation, not horde your inventory in hopes it goes up. Just like a gold mining, i'm assuming they sell most of their resources as soon if not before they get it, they don't speculate on price swings (much).

And once again there are 3600BTC mined EVERY day. Either by mega farms or solo miners across the glove. In both cases i think everyone agrees that MAJORITY of those BTC will end up on the market, so market needs to find a price point at which those BTC can be absorbed. Now the argument is:
1-who is more likely to sell most of mined coins, mega farms or your solo farmers?
2-And by how much? If it's by 1-2% does it really make a difference.

I think history shows that first miners were horders, and actually just did it as a hobby at a loss. So i tend to lean that mega farmers would sell more, but again how much does it matter? There will be 3600new btc today and someone will own them

I've already tried to make this same point multiple times in this thread, but it just seems to make the naysayers more stubborn. These mega-mining farms are working to devour their competition while raking in the dough. They're not delusional hodlers who are betting on BTC going to the moon in 10 years or whatever. There's profits to be taken right now, and these people are ready to milk this cash cow dry.

you have made nothing but assumptions while I've provided you with factual reports tha indicate this is not so black or white
4172  Economy / Speculation / Re: The negative impact of mining farms on: October 27, 2014, 12:09:32 AM
I believe he means that mining has become a job of a few entities (mining farms). Not exactly Satoshi's idea about decentralized peer-to-peer systems.

If you think Satoshi didn't envision mining farms then you are underestimating him
4173  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 26, 2014, 10:06:42 PM

There are surely better coins. but not accepted by community.
So there is very low chances other crypto coin will survive.

Even LTC people loosing interest.

 Cheesy

which coins are better than Bitcoin exactly?
4174  Economy / Speculation / Re: The negative impact of mining farms on: October 26, 2014, 09:59:17 PM
Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System

Its only a matter of time before bitcoin is replaced by something that is decentralized and peer-to-peer.  Greed and lack of competent leadership are the root causes for this version 1.0 failure.

How exactly is Bitcoin not peer-to-peer?
4175  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 26, 2014, 06:36:48 PM
just had a good laugh  Cheesy

Quote
Therefore, for any of you out there thinking that bitcoin is dead in the water, it might be.  The currency is not the important factor.  The important factor is the cryptographically secure blockchain protocol, as this gives the protocol the ability to record and transfer value without trusted third parties such as banks.  That technology, given to the world by Satoshi Nakamoto, may just transform everything including banking.

http://thefinanser.co.uk/fsclub/2014/10/the-importance-of-cryptocurrencies-and-the-blockchain-to-banks-and-everyone.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
4176  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 26, 2014, 05:57:40 PM
https://xapo.com/post/what-is-bitcoin-the-best-money-in-human-history/

a nice write up from Ted Rogers at Xapo.

obviously inspired by Wences speeches but still a good, condensed, text version
4177  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: October 26, 2014, 03:03:45 AM


Yeah I didnt take the time to respond out of the respect for the developers of Monero, but this is a pretty flimsy answer.

 Unless other people are doing this at the same time, when you move your coins back to the main chain, you will get the same coins back that you started with.

-- this assumes a very low volume on the sidechain. It also assumes that they will keep the block processing length short enough for something like this to occur. This is not smart and therefore will not happen, especially immediately after release. They can short the block times down once enough volume has been achieved.

I also think it is possible the market may simply reject the notion of adopting the Bitcoin currency for everything.

-- The entire history of network effects says otherwise. This is totally baseless logic.

We may well find that the reason for altcoins is not the features!

-- This is equivalent to saying there is no reason to use Monero in the first place. Everyone there was there because they believed in a pure anonymous coin and the market it served. However now with that possibility achieved via sidechains, there remains no reason to be in Monero any longer (imo).

I agree.

It seems the main argument is Monero sidechain is problematic because it needs a large base of users.

The thing is if there's a market for monero than the same market can transfer to monero sidechain and make its privacy equally effective
4178  Economy / Speculation / Re: The negative impact of mining farms on: October 26, 2014, 02:40:59 AM
I guess that after a point has been reached that no one can profit from mining, no matter how high the price has gone or how much he's able to invest mining is going to be something equivalent of running a node. Only done by hobbyists and supporters that are looking to help the network.

I'm not sure how this you could envision this happening
4179  Economy / Speculation / Re: The negative impact of mining farms on: October 26, 2014, 02:32:59 AM
A brain twister:

All of country_A's energy needs met by hydro power.
Megamine comes to country_A, and uses its hydropower, calling itself "green."
Since now there's not enough power left for the rest of country_A, coal burning plants are built to supply the deficit.
The coal plants aren't feeding megamine, they're feeding country_A; country_A is now dirty, while megamine is "green."

[spoiler]The country is burning shitloads of coal it wouldn't have, if not for the "green" megamine using up all the hydro.[/spoiler]

Good point. I thought we were talking about Georgia...

I was talking about country_A, more of an exposition than a dialog, really. Would you like to have a talk?  What's on ur mind?

Are you intentionally retarded?

Quote
"The Luleå river produces twice as much electricity as the Hoover Dam does, so 50 per cent is exported from our region. There is a surplus of energy, and we can supply more data centres in this area easily," Engman said.

KNC is in Sweden yes, but in Boden, Sweden, next to what is likely the biggest hydropower facility in the country.

Is your stupid ass suggesting they are actually routing power from coal facilities outside the region right up there near the artic circle to power their data centres

Here is a quote directly from Hydro66 data centre press release, they're a neighbour of KNC :

Quote
The facility is fed directly by the 78 MW Boden hydropower station, located less than 500m away.

If we're being honest, this is likely the case for every data centres in the Node Pole.
4180  Economy / Speculation / Re: The negative impact of mining farms on: October 26, 2014, 01:30:54 AM
...
One of their real farms is what you have pictured below.  The link you offered is another pitch, all I see is "will reside."
Now highlight the part stating renewable energy is actually being used Smiley
...It is my understanding ...Sorry, no exact quotes.
...

So, you got nothing other than "your understanding"?  Don't even joke like that. Cheesy  

http://thenodepole.com/regional-qualities/electricity-and-infrastructure/

This is the location of their farm.

If after reading this you are so dishonest as to say KNC's farm might not be powered by renewable energy than I can't help you anymore.

I tried to spoon feed you every information so you wouldn't choke on the truth but looks like trolls have digestion problem.

Face it troll, even after moving the goal posts, you lose.
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