Another barbarous relic, gold, has even lower transactional utility [...]
I can't resist the urge to point out that Keynes never called gold a barbarous relic; it was the gold standard - the practice of linking the value of currency to the value of gold - that he so described. Good point indeed. Gold standard truly is a laughable practice, similar to - just imagine - that somebody would tie his shitcoin's value to Bitcoin! Sooner or even sooner it is found out that Bitcoin still has value but the shitcoin is sinking just as the dollar did when defaulted from the gold standard. Let gold be gold, and Bitcoin be Bitcoin. And people use whatever they wish. |
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Those "73 stakeholders" who were awarded all the Nxt coins that would ever exist were quite possibly 1 developer + 72 sock puppets.
That would conveniently explain why the NXT price did not stall sooner when it was being pumped, unlike for example the Monero price that is an actual product of market mechanism between thousands of actors. |
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Where can I read the resumes of the Monero developers? I see only 37 year old Frenchman David Latapie's Linkedin, which frankly isn't that impressive for a client programs programmer (at least not what I can see without logging in). Appears he is more of a business development or corporate/enterprise processes guy. Résumé de David Latapie
They say success is a three-pronged story: "want", "can", "needed".
What I want to do in my work life is "IT", "management", "English language" and "innovation". I can do them and they are definitely needed. I don't know...the résumé seemed pretty impressive to me. Microsoft office skills, Ability to read and write english, AND "innovation"! David, I've a gold star waiting for you to collect at the front of the class.  They are needed and we have just the man for the job- He can do not just one but all three! I bet he can make a mean cup of tea too, but probably wanted to stay modest. I suspect the rest of the core-teams résumés are just as brilliant. But seriously now -- We are in safe hands with Monero developers, they are some of the brightest minds in the altcoin sphere today, they have a great vision on where to take this project and it's the most exciting thing since bitcoin itself. I'd appreciate if we saw less of FUDsters like you making snarky comments. ~CfdU~ I was thinking if it is too invasive to reply, but then I realized that this is my thread, and you are the stranger, so it is definitely OK. I was thinking if it is too early to tell that we are having a closer cooperation with David, who will be situated in my castle, but then I realized that he has already disclosed it in his CV, so it is definitely OK. I was thinking if it is too modest of a resume, telling only about English and Office skills, but then I realized that I also don't have much more to put on my resume, which I don't even have, and neither does the critic, so it is definitely OK. |
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Bitcoin's "intrinsic value" is supposed to be its utility as a payment medium. All predictions that the price will eventually rise "to the moon" are based entirely on the assumption that there will be substantial and increasing demand for that use. In particular, its value as an investment depends entirely on that premise.
Wrong (x3). Transaction use accounts for about 1-5% of Bitcoin's value. Most important reason why it has value is that it has value (value storage). This accounts for the rest, 95-99%. Another barbarous relic, gold, has even lower transactional utility: unlike Bitcoin it is not even free, instant, and verifiable. Despite this, gold's market cap is the highest of non-fiat moneys, about $6,000,000,000,000. Bitcoin is still 1000 times behind gold and Monero is 1000 times behind Bitcoin. |
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"I wouldn;t do anything more than virtual work for such virtual money..."
Yup. And the bolded one is spot on. Any one designing a crypto-currency better understand who the target market is.
It is possible that there will indeed be a govmoney, which is used to buy things that government produces extracts from the economy, such as taxes, sickness industry, public brainwash (sorry the official names are healthcare and education, but they are so far from the actual meaning in a full 1984esque style that I just cannot restrict myself...  ). Then the free people want to use their free money to store their savings and transact between them. Monero is such a money. If it never grows bigger, it can still function between the limited number of users, who are not in it for getting rich anyway. Bitcoin is in-between. I have always thought that it is a "failure" for crypto to fail to become the money of the governed public. But as for me, I take a small free currency over a huge controlled one any day. |
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There is an absolutely perfect 50% retracement just put into place in Poloniex: from 0.00510000 to 0.00400000, with previous bottom at 0.00290000. This means that regardless whether we just hit a mid-move bottom (which in this case will not necessarily ever be visited again) or a downward resistance that will be breached later, the next move is resolutely UP, and the fibonacci possibilities are:
38.2% = 442
50% = 455
61.8% = 468
76.4% = 484.
If these are cleared, it is good possibility that this was a bear trap in large proportions. If the price turns down from these, we may be in a downtrend going ultimately to the 175-231-290 line, which could mean a bottom in the 330-350 range.
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what's happening with the Bitcoin price Guyz ?
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And, especially, how is it related to the topic of the thread?  |
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If or when you offer expirations longer than 3 months away, I could be interested.
+1 I could, but the insane volatility would make them not so lucrative: "Oh you wanna bet that XMR rises 10 times?" - Here, you get double your money if it does. "You want insurance against going to zero?" - Okeydokey, just gimme half of your XMR. Still, nothing is impossible. What exactly would be the terms that you are interested in? Willing to issue contracts for other alt coins?
No. I am not so intimately involved in their development that I would dare to do that. Also XMR and BTC are the only coins that I own and can thus pledge as a collateral. |
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Change Sell Buyback Contract full name Maturity Type Strike B.E Lev Imp vol Open interest
-19,1 % 0,00022 0,00013 140930-CALL-0.0200 30.9.2014 CALL 0,02000 0,02018 2490 % 325 %
-23,8 % 0,00036 0,00022 140930-CALL-0.0150 30.9.2014 CALL 0,01500 0,01529 1510 % 320 %
-25,2 % 0,00066 0,00045 140930-CALL-0.0100 30.9.2014 CALL 0,01000 0,01056 792 % 315 %
-23,6 % 0,00091 0,00063 140930-CALL-0.0080 30.9.2014 CALL 0,00800 0,00877 570 % 315 %
-21,0 % 0,00138 0,00099 140930-CALL-0.0060 30.9.2014 CALL 0,00600 0,00718 372 % 330 %
-19,5 % 0,00170 0,00124 140930-CALL-0.0050 30.9.2014 CALL 0,00500 0,00647 299 % 340 % 8000
-18,1 % 0,00210 0,00154 140930-CALL-0.0040 30.9.2014 CALL 0,00400 0,00582 242 % 350 %
-16,6 % 0,00257 0,00192 140930-CALL-0.0030 30.9.2014 CALL 0,00300 0,00525 196 % 360 %
26,7 % 0,00149 0,00108 140930-PUT-0.0050 30.9.2014 PUT 0,00500 0,00371 342 % 180 %
31,0 % 0,00112 0,00079 140930-PUT-0.0045 30.9.2014 PUT 0,00450 0,00354 460 % 180 %
30,4 % 0,00079 0,00054 140930-PUT-0.0040 30.9.2014 PUT 0,00400 0,00333 657 % 180 %
32,3 % 0,00056 0,00037 140930-PUT-0.0035 30.9.2014 PUT 0,00350 0,00303 937 % 190 %
34,4 % 0,00038 0,00024 140930-PUT-0.0030 30.9.2014 PUT 0,00300 0,00269 1433 % 200 %
43,8 % 0,00026 0,00015 140930-PUT-0.0025 30.9.2014 PUT 0,00250 0,00229 2144 % 220 %
-22,8 % 0,00060 0,00040 141031-CALL-0.0200 31.10.2014 CALL 0,02000 0,02050 880 % 295 %
-21,2 % 0,00087 0,00060 141031-CALL-0.0150 31.10.2014 CALL 0,01500 0,01574 597 % 300 %
-19,3 % 0,00133 0,00095 141031-CALL-0.0100 31.10.2014 CALL 0,01000 0,01114 386 % 305 % 5000
-18,3 % 0,00163 0,00118 141031-CALL-0.0080 31.10.2014 CALL 0,00800 0,00941 313 % 310 %
-17,1 % 0,00203 0,00149 141031-CALL-0.0060 31.10.2014 CALL 0,00600 0,00776 250 % 315 %
-16,4 % 0,00229 0,00170 141031-CALL-0.0050 31.10.2014 CALL 0,00500 0,00700 220 % 320 %
-15,6 % 0,00261 0,00195 141031-CALL-0.0040 31.10.2014 CALL 0,00400 0,00628 193 % 325 %
-14,8 % 0,00298 0,00224 141031-CALL-0.0030 31.10.2014 CALL 0,00300 0,00561 168 % 330 %
15,1 % 0,00189 0,00138 141031-PUT-0.0050 31.10.2014 PUT 0,00500 0,00337 269 % 175 %
16,6 % 0,00150 0,00108 141031-PUT-0.0045 31.10.2014 PUT 0,00450 0,00321 340 % 175 %
18,4 % 0,00115 0,00082 141031-PUT-0.0040 31.10.2014 PUT 0,00400 0,00302 447 % 175 %
19,7 % 0,00087 0,00060 141031-PUT-0.0035 31.10.2014 PUT 0,00350 0,00276 598 % 180 %
21,2 % 0,00062 0,00042 141031-PUT-0.0030 31.10.2014 PUT 0,00300 0,00248 848 % 185 %
22,0 % 0,00043 0,00028 141031-PUT-0.0025 31.10.2014 PUT 0,00250 0,00214 1237 % 195 %
-19,3 % 0,00103 0,00072 141130-CALL-0.0200 30.11.2014 CALL 0,02000 0,02088 502 % 290 %
-18,2 % 0,00135 0,00097 141130-CALL-0.0150 30.11.2014 CALL 0,01500 0,01616 380 % 295 %
-16,9 % 0,00182 0,00133 141130-CALL-0.0100 30.11.2014 CALL 0,01000 0,01158 279 % 300 %
-16,2 % 0,00212 0,00156 141130-CALL-0.0080 30.11.2014 CALL 0,00800 0,00984 239 % 305 %
-15,4 % 0,00248 0,00185 141130-CALL-0.0060 30.11.2014 CALL 0,00600 0,00816 203 % 310 %
-14,9 % 0,00272 0,00204 141130-CALL-0.0050 30.11.2014 CALL 0,00500 0,00738 185 % 315 %
-14,4 % 0,00299 0,00225 141130-CALL-0.0040 30.11.2014 CALL 0,00400 0,00662 168 % 320 %
-13,8 % 0,00331 0,00250 141130-CALL-0.0030 30.11.2014 CALL 0,00300 0,00590 152 % 325 %
11,4 % 0,00219 0,00162 141130-PUT-0.0050 30.11.2014 PUT 0,00500 0,00310 231 % 175 %
12,3 % 0,00180 0,00131 141130-PUT-0.0045 30.11.2014 PUT 0,00450 0,00295 283 % 175 %
13,5 % 0,00143 0,00103 141130-PUT-0.0040 30.11.2014 PUT 0,00400 0,00277 359 % 175 %
14,2 % 0,00113 0,00080 141130-PUT-0.0035 30.11.2014 PUT 0,00350 0,00254 458 % 180 %
15,0 % 0,00085 0,00059 141130-PUT-0.0030 30.11.2014 PUT 0,00300 0,00228 612 % 185 %
16,1 % 0,00060 0,00040 141130-PUT-0.0025 30.11.2014 PUT 0,00250 0,00200 874 % 190 %
As can be seen from the CHANGE field, the September options have a delta (leverage calculated from the % change in option price) of up to 4.5. A well timed PUT strategy could have made a lot of money. |
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What?? Bears infesting my thread? The correct way to value BTC is to take a scenario analysis: * The price of LTC is $4.9290 * LTC will have 4 x the supply of BTC * Thus, the value of LTC should be BTC/4. * The fair value of BTC could therefore be LTC/USD * 4 4.9290 * 4 = $19.7 It seems to me that (with the caveat that better investments such as Monero may be available) I should invest everything that I can afford to lose.
Kelly formula: With essentially infinite payoff, invest same % as is the probability of success = 20%. (Kelly is valid if B automatically leads to loss of entire investment, and is higher if this is not the case.)
My suggestion: 50% of investment capital in crypto, of which the %-age of Monero should approach 50% if the sum is very small but be much less if the sum is significant.
My suggestion: Short the rallies, avoid buying back on dips. Have you bought this account recently?  |
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voicing bearish concerns...
shorting is cumbersome Not necessarily. If you can bear to buy the PUT option from me, then there is very good leverage when the price goes down. The delta can be about 300% and the maximum leverage more than 1000%. |
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Wow the market has been on fire. When it calms down, I hope at least some would find the usefulness of PUTs once more... They actually might come in handy  I'll have to postpone the calculation of prices for a time, but drop a line if you want to buy. |
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This is so pro, i'm between slightly negative and neutral for now, long term its Stellar and beyond because XMR is the best altcoin there is.
You realize for stellar to materialize XMR would need to overtake XBT? I know it's not impossible, but to call it a near certainty is a very big stretch. ahm, 0.05 does not require surpassing BTC, thats why I said long term, dont let the trolls undermine your beliefs, I know things look so good with XMR that ppl feel tempted to flirt with catastrophic scenarios out of pity for the other coins, but lately they are showing not deserving of being on XMR's spot. So I'll double down on their attacks not putting them down but pointing out that XMR economics and technology is indeed what it looks it is and the reason why they feel threatened: stuff from the best, most promising altcoin right now, and I'll not say sorry for thinking it is. That prediction was for the next 30 days, guys |
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What?? Bears infesting my thread? The correct way to value BTC is to take a scenario analysis: - What is the value per unit if A) it fulfills its promise? - What is the value if B) it does not? - What is the probability of A)? - How long does it take? - What is the current price? A: value $1,000,000 B: value <$100,000 A: probability 20% A: duration at least 3 years, up to 10 years current: $500. It seems to me that (with the caveat that better investments such as Monero may be available) I should invest everything that I can afford to lose. Kelly formula: With essentially infinite payoff, invest same % as is the probability of success = 20%. (Kelly is valid if B automatically leads to loss of entire investment, and is higher if this is not the case.) My suggestion: 50% of investment capital in crypto, of which the %-age of Monero should approach 50% if the sum is very small but be much less if the sum is significant. |
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narcissistic megalomania is in a bull trend. personally, i am shorting it.
Sometimes one guy can innovate wonders. Satoshi was one such person, and I hold AnonyMint in high regard also. Now, Satoshi has not been well received in his time (or even now) by the general populace, and AnonyMint is one of the most hated members of this community. Perhaps James is making his way to this group, perhaps not. One wise pharisee once said: "Let him go. If this thing is from man, it will collapse on its own merit. But what if it is from God? Are you prepared to fight against God?" Well his words were not heeded to, and 2000 years later Jesus has more followers than ever. As for James, I don't have any evidence of him scamming people. (Not that I have searched though.) My advice would be likewise, to point out his past misdeeds if such are found, and flaws in technology and economics, in a respectful manner. It does not take long to notice if the initiative has merit or not, and Monero folks are each individually in a position to hedge their fortunes if they so wish. These threads, believe it or not, are visited by influential people and their aides. The matter that most sets Monero apart from any other coin is its community, and therefore I beg that we could stay civil even in the face of such grave and existential threat as a lone C programmer. |
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I hope you have hired some bodyguards - seriously bro stay safe...
I would not like to be the guy who wrongs / tries to harm me. I believe in personal responsibility. In some parts of the world people kill each other for a few bucks ... People have killed Presidents of the United States also. But I don't remember anyone doing it twice. /let's close this sidetrack. |
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I hope you have hired some bodyguards - seriously bro stay safe...
I would not like to be the guy who wrongs / tries to harm me. I believe in personal responsibility. |
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Making new coins was not profitable for some time, but now it is coming again..? Definitely worth following! |
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Negative. Price turns down due to news or no news, coupled with great dumps that smash the support currently at ~400. If no support is found until 290, it breaks the rising bottoms trend, leading to further insecurity. Also Bitcoin starting to rise dramatically could lead to this outcome just because alts typically follow suit a little later. Likelihood 5-10%.
What is your opinion on the effect of BTC continuing lower? In the past few weeks we've seen BTC give up 600 after staying roughly in that range for a while (since May), and now it seems it might be giving up 500. I wonder what the effect of this might have on Monero. Well personally it has made me buy more of it.. don't know about the others  Perhaps this is a rationalized response to the primal urge to sell BTC, which cannot be done due to my resolution of not selling below 3000. Switching to something that is still crypto, has things going, and is going up, is not strictly breaking of the promise, right?  Are you open to disclosing the order of magnitude of Monero you own? (as you have for Bitcoin). Of course, feel free to ignore my question (I personally would not disclose it in the public forum). Well, the following statement does not give any new information to the NSA as it is only parsed from public sources with necessary conversions: - With Bitcoin, I have always since 2012-1-1 owned more than BTC2,400 although always less than BTC35,000. - With Monero, I own more than 30,000 XMR but less than 227,000 XMR. The usual "taxman disclaimer": "I" probably does not mean any entity that you can tax.
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Note that in my prior linked post about Gold, the rush to anonymity and avoid socialism-gone-mad taxation
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Bitcoin is failing (to scale to ubiquity) because it is not decentralized.
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Sorry but imo Monero is a joke pretending to be serious.
Wealth preservation is the art of allocating between the least-shitty alternatives. |
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