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4181  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Impact Of Commercial Space Exploration on: May 31, 2020, 04:21:17 PM
I don't think this means much at all... He'd have been able to launch a rocket fromm somewhere even if it wasn't from the US and a shift from government entities to private companies just means corners will now be cut due to financial inefficiencies rather than laziness... I'm guessing this'll add a lot more space junk everywhere especially if more competitors rise up. (oh and no worries because we can just form collisions with space junk and allow it to polite the atmosphere because that won't cause problems)...

We're far from anything more happening although it can go down in history that the US government and nasa just gave up on a project when they saw Russia could do it cheaper...

We may soon have hourly blocktimes with bitcoin too if we end up using it here and Mars since the singla will take 20 minutes at light speed and I don't think teleportation over that distance has yet been accomplished)...
4182  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Benchmark for Cryptoasset investment (Crypto Hedge Funds Alpha) on: May 31, 2020, 04:12:47 PM
Why use hedge funds when you ca. Use the underlying asset...?

Grayscale seems to get mentioned a lot now and I think coinbase have a version of a hedge fund too (where you buy premade "baskets" of different currency thst actually tracks the price - I think it was coinbase anyway)...
4183  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Tax Obligation : 1099-B Cash App on: May 31, 2020, 04:06:23 PM
Does you're 1099-B include profit you've made? You might have to just submit it with your tax return if so but I didn't think they gave 1099d for such small amounts (relative to what the tax agencies assume is small).
4184  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Node Broadcasting Behind VPN but Whitelisted for select IP Addresses Clear IP on: May 30, 2020, 07:21:23 PM
Thanks I guess I should of clarified but I'm actually running my node on a Windows 10 laptop.  Also, in addition to the original questions,  what about the same question but instead of behind a VPN and in the clear, behind TOR and in the clear?

I'd give a similar response however you could probably try running two instances of the node and only whitelist the first few nodes and block incoming connections for the rest.
4185  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Node Broadcasting Behind VPN but Whitelisted for select IP Addresses Clear IP on: May 30, 2020, 07:14:14 PM
I've seen things like this being done by running a raspberry pi with a firewalling software that acts like a proxy server and puts some connections through one way and others through a different but I'm not sure how it'd work in reality.

You'd probably have to allow individual IPs of the nodes you want to allow to connect and the port of the VPN and nothing else, but other nodes will still probably be able to get your IP and work out you're running a node (though traffic analysis) so I don't know if it'd actually gain much...
4186  Bitcoin / Electrum / Re: Electrum Private Key on: May 30, 2020, 06:38:12 PM
Characters before the key give the type of address, you should note all of it down or at least note the type at the top of where your putting it.

But is there a reason you're not using the mnemonic? It's not a good idea and is considered insecure to write down the key the way you're doing it.
4187  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Could govt legislate to keep social media neutral? on: May 30, 2020, 05:43:22 PM
Facebook, tritter and a few other companies moved a lot of their operations to ireland for tax purposes... What's to say they won't do the same for "intellectual property" purposes (at least to ensure european media isn't corrupted in the same way)...

I don't think the US has the capabilities to take on the EU (in all honesty - there's a point where they won't be able to push them further and that's probably the point)...

There may be a fine line between wrong and partially correct too (and few things are wholly correct)
4188  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Looking for a list of companies that will hire and pay solely in Bitcoin on: May 30, 2020, 03:34:36 PM
You're going to have to give us more info than that, what are you? A blockchain dev, marketing or admin.... And where are you, some companies employ exclusively based on location.
4189  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Builled for supporting Bitcoin Cash instead of Bitcoin Core on: May 29, 2020, 11:06:43 PM
Ltc is pretty good for me to transact at a low fee... I don't pay more than a cent for bitcoin transactions though when I send them.

Eth is also pretty cheap for sending I've found... Its a matter of personal preference what coin you're wanting to use, naming isn't - it's bitcoin not bitcoin core, bitcoin core is the software and has too many syllables.


Bitcoin cash actually has a security flaw when compared with bitcoin as it uses the same algorithm and need much less power for a 51% attack to occur. But a simple algorithmic change can fix that.
4190  Economy / Speculation / Re: Grayscale Buys 800% More Bitcoin Compared to Q1 2019 on: May 29, 2020, 04:33:10 AM
According to the insight link, over the past 12 months "Total Investment into Grayscale Products: $503.7 million" and their investment was around 171,000,000 so I'm not entirely sure... A lot of the investments do come from hedge funds and I don't know if I'd expect them. To spike up this quarter or last, I know a lot have been seeing problems though with the current economic state....
4191  Economy / Speculation / Re: Grayscale Buys 800% More Bitcoin Compared to Q1 2019 on: May 29, 2020, 01:42:37 AM
They seem to be covered a lot by the press and not much more by anyone else? Is there a quarterly breakdown as all I can find is articles like "grayscale buying more bitcoin than has been mined" which is an obvious clickbaity headline (I'll keep looking and update if I find one)...
4192  Economy / Speculation / Re: Amazon has a gap to fill with their pe ratio on: May 28, 2020, 09:56:24 PM

I'd rather say if they continue to call it a pandemic. There's too little death cases to be calling it a real pandemic and to justify the destruction of tourism and transport.

I also think it will take some time for them to recover even if all the restrictions are lifted next month but those who survive will have an easy time making money a year from now because the competition will mostly be out of the picture.

Warren missed some money trains in his life especially in tech sector. He has so much money that he can play it safe and still make more. His exit doesn't mean the stock will get destroyed in the next few months.

They have exposure to some technology with a large stake in apple. I think he made a failing in not believing in diversification as he could've picked up or could pick up now a stake in companies like dell or up which are really undervalued and dell have a very good rating for support among a lot of its loyal customers...


It'd be interesting to look back at this post in 2033 if we're still around. Total IT spending is ~$3 trillion worldwide. I just googled that number up so I can't vouch for what's included in it but let's say Amazon could get 20% of that pie plus the pie grows to $10 trillion over the next 13 years. That's $2 trillion for Amazon and let's say they can squeeze out a 15% margin so about 1/3 of a trillion net earnings... $37 trillion marketcap would be P/E just north of 100.

Right now Amazon has ~1% if that $3 trillion pie. Not sure about AWS margins.

Anyway, fantasies aside - I think it would take a ruthless dedicated competitor (like Alibaba mentioned above) to dethrone Amazon.

Yeah I think alibaba and another Chinese company I forget the name of would be capable of reducing amazon however their shipping fees to Europe are extremely expensive, whereas amazon's are factored into the pricing already. I don't know if alibaba has a logistics firm too, amazon could expand theirs further...

Airliners and aerospace supply look fundamentally weak. Cruise lines too, I don't see a robust recovery there for some years, at least as long as the pandemic persists.

When the data shows retail investors are piling into these questionable sectors at the same time Warren Buffett is exiting, you have to wonder: is retail buying Wall Street's bags?

Why Is Warren Buffett Selling So Many Stocks?

Imagine the reputation he'd have if he held 3 companies into bankruptcy from it selling? Berkshire is a bit overvalued he might end up being delisted as the ceo if he did something like that and lost so much...

Those holdings can't have been so much either, I make it 600 million out of around a 400 bn market cap which I'd say means they have 100bn at least in holdings. Buffet has previously promised his investors he'll attempt to buy back more shares which could be what he's rasing these funds for...

Insurance companies are also meant to be risk averse and have strategies, it may have just broke one of their predefined targets he has... Economists focus on algorithms as well as judgement to decide what a stock may do, these are similar to ta and are only probably accurate 90% of the time in calculating a risk factor - and more risk brings more reward POTENTIAL.
4193  Other / Off-topic / Re: distracting frame around text area on: May 28, 2020, 07:40:33 PM
You could try a request desktop version or switch broser, all I see in the stylesheet is this:

Code:
/* The main post box - this makes it as wide as possible. */
.editor
{
width: 96%;
height: 350px;
}

And almost nothing on the html

And if it is firefox you could switch views to a "reader view" verson but that might be more annoying (with F9)...
4194  Other / Off-topic / Re: distracting frame around text area on: May 28, 2020, 07:22:22 PM
I think this is browser&OS dependent, I don't have it on mine on windows with firefox, but there's a frame when I use linux...
4195  Economy / Speculation / Re: Amazon has a gap to fill with their pe ratio on: May 28, 2020, 06:56:03 PM
On the point of PayPal not being accepted into amazon, does that not make sense? Amazon are trying to sell their credit card and so are ebay? Also paypal can take longer than amazon checkout and amazon are hoping people don't try to chage their order and get charged the most (I've had it where it has taken a really long time to change shipping from one day to free - don't think it's coincidental)... And Ebay have a p/e of 8...

Microsoft is a dinosaur that hasn't had a new idea in decades, if ever. Their heroin (Visual Studio) allows them to hook young lazy developers and their SDKs and DevOps etc isn't horrible... not great but just enough to keep the momentum going. But arguably AWS does a lot of Microsoft-y things (like hosting SQL Server) better than Microsoft. Same with Oracle, another dinosaur that couldn't innovate itself out of a wet Amazon box.

This has fuck all to do with the stock price of course. I doubt that Wall Street bozos know the difference between C# and SQL. They just think that some people like Bezos or Musk can do no wrong.

IBM are pretty similar in this regard too. With microsoft, they lost their innovator as Bill Gates sold most of his stock for other companies and started working on philanthropy instead (or some subset of it).

As for Microsoft, which is definitely also a growth company, is growing significantly slower. But I'd say MSFT is probably a "safer" investment.

Yeah they're all pretty stable at a p/e of 30 and look to have been for a while now although still might be a little inflated.

Quote
Robintrack, a third-party website that monitors top stocks on popular trading start-up Robinhood, shows Ford and General Electric as the most bought names on that platform. Aurora Cannabis, Delta Air Lines, Carnival, and GoPro were among the top ten.

Participation in these stocks is up roughly 120% in just the last two months, according to DataTrek. GoPro, a stock which trades at $4, has seen a more than 50% increase in holdings since March 1, while holdings of GE and Ford have roughly doubled.

“The rush of retail investors into U.S. equities is at least partly a function of a world with no casinos, no sports betting to speak of, and little to do outside the home,” DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas said. “The dopamine rush of a full house is the same as holding a hat-sized stock into an up 3% open on the S&P.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/22/gamblers-pivot-to-stock-trading-during-lockdowns---barstools-portnoy-revives-old-e-trade-account.html

I recently put some money into RDS (shell) assuming the dutch or british government will bail them out if they make a loss (although bailed out companies take a long time to start to perform again) but I thought they'd be an interesting watch with a few $... The aviation industry is going to see a huge hit from this and I don't think many young airlines have an established strategy that isn't: take a loan to buy the planes, use the passengers to pay staff and interest and take a small profit and pay off the rest of the loan when you sell the plane...

Most aerospace companies have seen a drop by half and I'm still seeing a lot of advice on helping physical scientists get into an aviation career so it potentially isn't too harsh of a problem (but also, the P/E ratio of rolls royce - of whom most profits come from aero engine sales - managed to hit 1.6 which is just incredible! Falling from 1000cents (us) to ~350)

Carnival are eithergoing to do poorly from this or nothing because P&O, when I've been on them, are great at trying to keep an old ship going for as long as possible - meaning their biggest expenditure was probably huge amounts of fuel although maybe this means it hasn't been profitible for a while...

Yeah, I was around way back when, when internet startup stocks were all the rage and I'm sure I could have gotten in early, but I don't think I ever would have predicted Amazon to get to be as dominant as where it is today--even after they stopped selling just books. 

The problem with companies like them are that if they have a bad quarter, their stock is going to drop massively.  That P/E over 100 isn't entirely rational.  It was driven that high by hopes for the future.

There's always the reminder that past growth doesn't account for future growth and it probably isn't going to be wrong in this case...  If amazon continue as they did since 2007 then in 13 years, they'll be worth $37 trillion https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap...

A value like that is either unfeasible or would be quite a problem for the US government and the rest of the world to be able to control (I'm fairly sure that's more than the S&P 500 is worth and more than the GDPs of the Big 5 countries, it'd also mean they'd have to match the cumulative GDP of the UK and Germany every year to remain sustainable unless they have a huge p/e still)
4196  Economy / Speculation / Re: Amazon has a gap to fill with their pe ratio on: May 28, 2020, 03:50:32 PM

Second approach made investing in stocks nothing more than Ponzi Shame (you are buying shares - that gives you nothing - and you earn if there will be more buyers like you in the future) and that's what Amazon shares are.

Yes we can try to estimate how much will Amozon earn in future and how this will cool down P/E but it will still be a Ponzi Shame to me because you will earn only if more buyers will come (your reward/prift is based on amount of new inwestors and money that they will bring not on company income). Its not gasprom that share it's profit with investors (4-9% ROI annually). Where you actually invest in company and it's income not in it's brand and hype that will bring more investors in future.

"I invested in Amazon in 2020" - it's oxymoron to me. You are speculating on Ponzi Scheme not investing... No matter if its Amazon or any other 0 ROI paper with P/E > 20

Meanwhile we have here BNB with:
P/E ratio - 4,5! - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5208144.msg53299809#msg53299809
up to 60% quantitative ROI - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5208144.msg53361035#msg53361035 while still being deflationary coin.

I've seen broadcasting companies have their pe ratios cut to 2 or 3 with high revenues, and generally 15% margins... Their revenue is normally half their entire market cap which is ridiculous for their price - and you really think stakeholders in these firms aren't going to make rivals to Netflix and amazon prime or at least ensure some of the historic products are making high royalties... Most of these companies make their money on royalties so...

But yeah treadlines and emas, to me, is just betting on air. Even with bitcoin, you're better off looking at volume and rsi.

Lighting and electric companies have a pe around 6 and these are people that do specialist parts of the markets thst won't quickly be replaced...


@adaseb yeah the spx is due quite a huge fall... I don't know if you've looked at funds like vanguards value, and the European (non UK) stock markets, they've all had their profits shaved even before this so the S&P may do the same and I don't know how much that'll affect the European and Asian markets too...



I mentioned Microsoft an no one seemed to take the bait with azure being included that is clearly worth quite a bit less than amazon... Microsoft on the other hand don't actually charge subscriptions to students afaik so have a market to expand into if they needed to (and I don't think they charge universities if they can provide their own servers but I'm not sure on the arrangement there)...
4197  Economy / Speculation / Amazon has a gap to fill with their pe ratio on: May 28, 2020, 03:16:10 AM
For me, generally, going off pe ratios a healthy number is 10-15 + net assets/share mktcp. I was looking at amazons stocks and their pe ratio is 115... I don't know how much of the market people think its going to dominate but they're already pretty huge sales wise (even though I think retail is mostly making a loss), with their data centres factored in, assuming they're not on lease, then this would probably generously put their pe ratio near Microsoft at 30...

Additional point: the huge growth could also be why amazon don't really mention bitcoin very much and don't honour it as a payment option because bezos knows they're quite oversold...
4198  Economy / Economics / Re: Why can't I buy stocks with Bitcoin anywhere?! on: May 27, 2020, 08:01:40 PM
I thought etoro and mt4 offered it at least?
4199  Economy / Lending / Re: Free lightning tests on: May 27, 2020, 02:31:18 PM
Reciprocal invoice:

Code:
 lightning:lnbc100u1p0vu7t0pp55uvcj4xn60alht49zhcmmhseuysgy988k9f2uwgt2d9datmcrt8sdqqxqr4rq9qy9qsqsp5tafy6kx2ruxzkmt20velt08pkx4cjc3ntjfqcn4tu6g7d47jmh9qrzjqwryaup9lh50kkranzgcdnn2fgvx390wgj5jd07rwr3vxeje0glc7zf4hyqqgucqqqqqqqlgqqqqqeqqjqvy29df52fl5h7rkjh62n7s0he24r6ycx236kygq4hjm7y87apw3sa9kvh79qgvdl0rdzf57wcmmwxajadzagktl4znnqp6g96r572ecqs802hj

Should be valid for 6 hours if you want to test éclair.
4200  Economy / Lending / Re: Free lightning tests on: May 27, 2020, 03:38:29 AM
Any idea who you're connected with? I've tried it on two clients and both seem to fail.


If it's the éclair app you have to keep it open but you can use it in dual mode...
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