Sold 13644 Swapped 0 Total 13644 Price 0.01606 Total 219.12264 Less Fee 218.6843947 Man Fee 6.560531842
BTC Balance (BTC-TC) 1870.996585 9071 LTC-ATF.B1 90.71000000 Coinlenders CD 28/8 203.7282228 Coinlenders CD 12/9 100.87015028 Just-Dice Balance 243.74341540 TOTAL ASSETS 2,510.04837368 Outstanding MINING 156881 Outstanding SELLING 156881 Outstanding PURCHASE 6953 Effective Units 163834 Block reward 25 Difficulty 65,750,060 Hashes per MINING 5000000 Daily Dividend 0.00003824 50 days (Min Liquid) 0.00191219 100 days (Forced Close) 0.00382438 365 days (Buyback) 0.01395899 405 days (IPO) 0.01548874 400 days (Post SELLING div) 0.01529752 410 days (Pre SELLING div) 0.01567996 NAV Post MINING Div 2,503.78273786 NAV/U Post MINING Div 0.01528244 Days Dividend Post Div 399.61 SELLING Dividend - NAV Post SELLING Div 2,503.78273786 NAV/U Post Selling Div 0.01528244 PURCHASE selling price 0.01605 PURCHASE buy-back price 0.01498 J-D House profit at report 5430
|
|
|
It's a great idea, but listing on an exchange really stacks the timeline against you.
Yes I definitely wish I would have known about this earlier. I'm not as worried about getting the money converted to fiat, I'm sure the auction house will give you 48 hours or so to get the money to them. Why are you sure they'll give you 48 hours when they only give everyone else 24? Where have you previously managed to cash out $100k+ of BTC in 24 hours? Most exchanges have withdrawal limits below that even if you've completed all the KYC/AML document checks. Unless you've actually been through the pain that is moving significant sums of BTC into cash you should avoid assuming it's an easy and fast process. Just getting it transferred into your account wouldn't necessarily let you get a cashier cheque (or check if you're from the US) drawn against it. Depending on what we win the auction for, if it's under 200K I was going to float it and wait for the cash out to repay myself, but fair warning, the timeline likely makes this a fun idea but not feasible. Too Bad. Well if you can float the cash yourself then the timescale doesn't matter. Just bid on it yourself then if you win it worry about creating a security afterwards. I'm sure there'd be enough interest to sell whatever portion you wanted to - and no lost fees if you lose the auction.
|
|
|
It's a great idea, but listing on an exchange really stacks the timeline against you.
Yes I definitely wish I would have known about this earlier. I'm not as worried about getting the money converted to fiat, I'm sure the auction house will give you 48 hours or so to get the money to them. Why are you sure they'll give you 48 hours when they only give everyone else 24? Where have you previously managed to cash out $100k+ of BTC in 24 hours? Most exchanges have withdrawal limits below that even if you've completed all the KYC/AML document checks. Unless you've actually been through the pain that is moving significant sums of BTC into cash you should avoid assuming it's an easy and fast process. Just getting it transferred into your account wouldn't necessarily let you get a cashier cheque (or check if you're from the US) drawn against it immediately. So you'd have to convert to USD before you even knew if you'd won to be able to pay in time - meaning 2 sets of conversion fees if you lose and have to refund.
|
|
|
im in & I guarantee investment from a number of my pals.
get it on BTCT see what happens dude.
Much as I like BTC-TC that's probably not a good idea - in fact I doubt any exchange is. If the auction finishes in 4 days then OP would need USD in hand in 405 days time. That could be tough even if done via direct transfers on the forum - but in 4 days to get approval on BTC-TC and a manual withdrawal and exchange it to USD on an exchange and get it withdrawn to an account? This is unlikely to work unless OP has the cash himself to pay if you win (then get it back in BTC). If you win the bidding you have to pay within 24 hours by cashier's cheque/paypal/credit-card. So forget it unles OP has the cash himself OR already has the facility to cash BTC on that scale out very rapidly. EDIT: If you were to go ahead best way would likely be to do it off-exchange with investments made in USD not BTC (so pay by bank transfer) then list on an exchange afterwards to handle dividends etc there.
|
|
|
Sold 3205 Swapped 0 Total 3205 Price 0.02048 Total 65.6384 Less Fee 65.5071232 Man Fee 1.965213696
BTC Balance (BTC-TC) 2,292.48224725 9071 LTC-ATF.B1 90.71000000 Coinlenders CD 28/8 203.5971539 Coinlenders CD 12/9 100.80549990 Just-Dice Balance 243.55000000 TOTAL ASSETS 2,931.14490106 Outstanding MINING 144608 Outstanding SELLING 144608 Outstanding PURCHASE 5582 Effective Units 150190 Block reward 25 Difficulty 65,750,060 Hashes per MINING 5000000 Daily Dividend 0.00003824 50 days (Min Liquid) 0.00191219 100 days (Forced Close) 0.00382438 365 days (Buyback) 0.01395899 405 days (IPO) 0.01548874 400 days (Post SELLING div) 0.01529752 410 days (Pre SELLING div) 0.01567996 NAV Post MINING Div 2,925.40106374 NAV/U Post MINING Div 0.01947800 Days Dividend Post Div 509.31 SELLING Dividend 0.00418048 NAV Post SELLING Div 2,297.53492857 NAV/U Post Selling Div 0.01529752 PURCHASE selling price 0.01606 PURCHASE buy-back price 0.01499 J-D House profit at report 5384
|
|
|
Have locked PURCHASE slightly earlier than usual so I could audit numbers prior to the SELLING dividend - as there were buybacks of PURCHASE as well as sales I wanted to make sure everything added up.
Dividend is going to be almost exactly what I predicted yesterday - although there were sales and redemptions that was balanced by a bad day on J-D (we lost ~1 BTC).
SELLING will be briefly closed to clear order book and then reopened just before I do the SELLING dividends.
|
|
|
IMHO from now on this is the only option left to small/medium grade miners. Only few will afford mining with their own ASICs. We can only have a piece of the pie like this. Or mine with gpus + free electricity alt coins...
There is so much more truth to this than anyone realizes... we should think about this. "If we discount the price of $19/GH from KnC delivering end of October back to 8/29/2013, it will be @19*2*2=$76/GH. i.e. 0.69btc/GH. If we discount the price of $7.8/GH from BFL delivering end of December back to 8/29/2013, it will be @7.8*2*2*2*2=$124.8/GH. i.e. 1.13btc/GH. In either case, you also have lost the mining revenue that could have been generated during the wait time." Just NO. You need to get someone with basic numeracy skills to make any posts relating to numbers. 1. If you assume difficulty will double in a month it doesn't mean chips a month earlier are worth twice as much - as that would also need to assume that what was mined in that month would equal the total mining in all further months (depending on future changes it could actually be anywhere from be a lot less than further earnings to a bit more). 2. You can't adjust the price based on difficulty AND treat the mined coins as being an extra loss - as you're counting the same thing twice. The mined coins ARE the only reason to adjust the value for earlier delivery. If you want to compare the value of chips shipped now with ones shipped in 2 months then you don't quadruple the price, you simply add on the coins that would be mined in those 2 months - and that gives you the MAXIMUM extra value for earlier delivery (it's a maximum because it assumes zero costs or failures during those 2 months). Whilst that won't tell you how much the chips are worth, it will give provide a basis for determining whether one or the other of the prices is massively better than the other (and if mined income is being 100% returned to investors then you can also make SOME conclusions about likely ROI - but only to the extent of determining whether one is likely to be significantly better than the other : you can't calculate actual ROIs without projecting income a lot further forward).
|
|
|
It's also. in general, a bad idea to take out insurance where the insurer is the same party as the one whose failure you're trying to insure against.
For small delays the premium will cost more than the value of the cover. For large delays there's a non-trivial risk that the insurance will also default if the supplier defaults (nowhere is there any promise, let alone proof, of segregated funds able to cover all orders in full if there's a massive problem).
|
|
|
Did Deprived just forget to put up the new shares of DMS.Purchase?
Yeah - that's exactly what happened. They're up now.
|
|
|
Sold 6134 Swapped 0 Total 6134 Price 0.02052 Total 125.86968 Less Fee 125.6179406 Man Fee 3.768538219
BTC Balance (BTC-TC) 2,257.31656981 9071 LTC-ATF.B1 90.71000000 Coinlenders CD 28/8 203.4669716 Coinlenders CD 12/9 100.74128683 Just-Dice Balance 244.60000000 TOTAL ASSETS 2,896.83482823 Outstanding MINING 140502 Outstanding SELLING 140502 Outstanding PURCHASE 7611 Effective Units 148113 Block reward 25 Difficulty 50810339 Hashes per MINING 5000000 Daily Dividend 0.00004949 50 days (Min Liquid) 0.00247443 100 days (Forced Close) 0.00494886 365 days (Buyback) 0.01806334 405 days (IPO) 0.02004288 400 days (Post SELLING div) 0.01979544 410 days (Pre SELLING div) 0.02029033 NAV Post MINING Div 2,889.50492310 NAV/U Post MINING Div 0.01950879 Days Dividend Post Div 394.21 SELLING Dividend - NAV Post SELLING Div 2,889.50492310 NAV/U Post Selling Div 0.01950879 PURCHASE selling price 0.02048 PURCHASE buy-back price 0.01912 J-D House profit at report 5651
----------- BELOW HERE IS ESTIMATES FOR TOMORROW -----------
Daily Dividend 0.00003824
SELLING Dividend 0.00417986 NAV Post SELLING Div 2,265.76197400 NAV/U Post Selling Div 0.01529752 PURCHASE selling price 0.01606 PURCHASE buy-back price 0.01499
Those projections include tonight's LTC-ATF.B1 dividend and interest on coinlenders CDs. Final values will vary slightly depending on how J-D performs and what sales/redemptions there are.
|
|
|
My guess is somebody made a mistake by placing a 0.001 buy order at 0.01 instead. Otherwise, it does not make sence at all. With 0.01, even without difficulty increase, it takes 200 days to break even.
Pretty certain it wasn't a typo. If you look at the history you'll see that the buys were done over quite a number of different orders - it wasn't one big order placed at once. If there was a typo then it was when they did their calculations, not when they placed the orders.
|
|
|
Transfer bot had its first failure on a transfer overnight - someone sent in 46 PURCHASE and it only sent back 46 SELLING (no MINING).
That will happen occasionally - if BTC-TC gos down, my net connection drops or there's a lock error during the transfer. If it happens to you drop me a PM - it's easy for me to verify and correct. I'll always notice things like this anyway (I noticed this one quickly as number of MINING/SELLING outstanding didn't match) but in some cases won't pick up on errors until I produce my next report (when total outstanding units will no longer be what it should be allowing for sales/redemptions - telling me there's an error or missed transfer somewhere).
If you're the person who sent the 46 PURCHASE and only got SELLING sent back you now have your MINING as well.
EDIT: Actually the error was yesterday evening before I went out (I didn't check after I got back from the pub other than to make sure bot was still running):
Update started at 23/08/2013 18:14:19 TX-IN: 46 x DMS.PURCHASE <- Redacted ERROR: Transfer error. Could not get asset lock. ERROR: Unknown error with request. Message: The operation has timed out
The transfer of MINING failed because it couldn't get a lock on the asset, the transfer of SELLING worked but timed out responding so bot thought that hadn't worked either (which is why the bot doesn't retry on fails - as sometimes a transaction reported as a fail actually gos through, so all failures are left for me to sort).
|
|
|
Dividend should be around .0043-.0044 or so.
Sounds about right. It will be less than last one for sure.
|
|
|
BTC-TC is back running but no sign of teh dividends processing. I gave it a while then cancelled both and resubmitted them for immediate payment. Nothing more I can do other than wait - expect it's just that there's a lot of load on the server and it'll have to clear that before processing them.
noob question: How do I read the above reports to understand the possible dividend for DMS.SELLING? You need to know what next difficulty will be to do that. Dividend will be all capital above that needed to retain 400 days dividend for mining at the new difficulty. Im not home and on my mobile so cant give even a ballpark figure for it.
|
|
|
Oh, i see whats happened here now. Academic theorizing vs Real world application. Being a practical man myself, im going with the latter. It's not that at all. It's really just basic mathematics. You are assuming that as a business we sell X BTC a day, when in fact if BTC value goes up we still sell around our daily USD average and the # of total BTC sold actually goes down.
I believe that is exactly what Deprived is pointing out. When the price of BTC goes up, you sell LESS BTC, even if your USD sales are the same or growing. Your profits may look the same (or better) in USD, but dividends (shareholder portion of profits) are paid out in BTC, so you will end up paying out less BTC to shareholders. In his post, Ascension seems to be looking at this only from the standpoint of profits in USD, but shareholders only care about the amount of profit once it's converted back to BTC and paid out. Therefore, as with all businesses earning USD and paying dividends in BTC, shareholders must weigh the potential returns against simply holding BTC. Once everyone is on board with this concept, it might be worthwhile to discuss possible ways to protect shareholders by hedging against the currency risk. Yes - a rise in price won't reduce profit in USD, but it will in BTC. Ascension proves my point when he says if BTC value rises they still sell same USD average - meaning BTC sales have dropped. If BTC price doubles then USD value of sales would need to double to keep BTC profits at same level. And that's not possible when sales are constrained by capital and the capital is in USD (with the exception noted in next paragraph). The exception is where capital is not already being fully utilised - in that situation a rise doesn't necessarily reduce BTC profits. That was likely the case during the previous bubble/crash of BTC. But we know it's no longer the case as Ascension has mentioned having to sell more shares to increase capital - which wouldn't make sense if there was already sufficient capital for a significant expansion in sales. Pretty sad if the issuer doesn't even realise that the asset is actually USD denominated in practice - guess it'll take BTC rising and divdends falling for him to work out that if BTC rises vs USD then the same amount of USD becomes worth less BTC (which is all you actually need to know to realise that any asset whose revenue is constrained by capital and where capital is in USD MUST be USD-denominated in practice). So you say Ascension proves your point, and then you end by saying he doesn't realise your point. Over-explanatory, inconsistent, and childish. Nice. If you look back in the main thread youll find I raised this issue back when the security launched. If 6 months later he still hasnt understood it then maybe my position is a bit more undrstandable. Or maybe he does understand it and just doesnt want to confirm to investors that if btc rises a lot vs usd theyll end up a lot worse off than if they just held btc. Dont really understand what the agenda is Deprived. Its getting boring now. Accept my apologies then. It must be frustrating when you cant understand things and so have to waste time worrying about motives rather than just accepting free education.
|
|
|
....and those dividends will increase in value because BTC will be worth more. LOL, OK you've obviously made up your mind, but I would urge you to run some numbers. Consider everything! :-) Anyway, none of this detracts from the fact that these guys have a great business and seem to have executed really well. Personally, I'm impressed with their growth and think there is a big opportunity to pick up a lot more market share. So, considering all of that potential, there's no reason to gloss over risks that might not be apparent to everyone on first glance. Yeah this is one of the better investments to use as a hedge against btc falling or staying in same price area.
|
|
|
Oh, i see whats happened here now. Academic theorizing vs Real world application. Being a practical man myself, im going with the latter. It's not that at all. It's really just basic mathematics. You are assuming that as a business we sell X BTC a day, when in fact if BTC value goes up we still sell around our daily USD average and the # of total BTC sold actually goes down.
I believe that is exactly what Deprived is pointing out. When the price of BTC goes up, you sell LESS BTC, even if your USD sales are the same or growing. Your profits may look the same (or better) in USD, but dividends (shareholder portion of profits) are paid out in BTC, so you will end up paying out less BTC to shareholders. In his post, Ascension seems to be looking at this only from the standpoint of profits in USD, but shareholders only care about the amount of profit once it's converted back to BTC and paid out. Therefore, as with all businesses earning USD and paying dividends in BTC, shareholders must weigh the potential returns against simply holding BTC. Once everyone is on board with this concept, it might be worthwhile to discuss possible ways to protect shareholders by hedging against the currency risk. Yes - a rise in price won't reduce profit in USD, but it will in BTC. Ascension proves my point when he says if BTC value rises they still sell same USD average - meaning BTC sales have dropped. If BTC price doubles then USD value of sales would need to double to keep BTC profits at same level. And that's not possible when sales are constrained by capital and the capital is in USD (with the exception noted in next paragraph). The exception is where capital is not already being fully utilised - in that situation a rise doesn't necessarily reduce BTC profits. That was likely the case during the previous bubble/crash of BTC. But we know it's no longer the case as Ascension has mentioned having to sell more shares to increase capital - which wouldn't make sense if there was already sufficient capital for a significant expansion in sales. Pretty sad if the issuer doesn't even realise that the asset is actually USD denominated in practice - guess it'll take BTC rising and divdends falling for him to work out that if BTC rises vs USD then the same amount of USD becomes worth less BTC (which is all you actually need to know to realise that any asset whose revenue is constrained by capital and where capital is in USD MUST be USD-denominated in practice). So you say Ascension proves your point, and then you end by saying he doesn't realise your point. Over-explanatory, inconsistent, and childish. Nice. If you look back in the main thread youll find I raised this issue back when the security launched. If 6 months later he still hasnt understood it then maybe my position is a bit more undrstandable. Or maybe he does understand it and just doesnt want to confirm to investors that if btc rises a lot vs usd theyll end up a lot worse off than if they just held btc.
|
|
|
Yes - a rise in price won't reduce profit in USD, but it will in BTC.
Ascension proves my point when he says if BTC value rises they still sell same USD average - meaning BTC sales have dropped. If BTC price doubles then USD value of sales would need to double to keep BTC profits at same level. And that's not possible when sales are constrained by capital and the capital is in USD (with the exception noted in next paragraph).
The exception is where capital is not already being fully utilised - in that situation a rise doesn't necessarily reduce BTC profits. That was likely the case during the previous bubble/crash of BTC. But we know it's no longer the case as Ascension has mentioned having to sell more shares to increase capital - which wouldn't make sense if there was already sufficient capital for a significant expansion in sales.
Pretty sad if the issuer doesn't even realise that the asset is actually USD denominated in practice - guess it'll take BTC rising and divdends falling for him to work out that if BTC rises vs USD then the same amount of USD becomes worth less BTC (which is all you actually need to know to realise that any asset whose revenue is constrained by capital and where capital is in USD MUST be USD-denominated in practice).
So you say Ascension proves your point, and then you end by saying he doesn't realise your point. Over-explanatory, inconsistent, and childish. Nice. Doesn't matter, he's still got a point. Rising BTC + Same sales volume in USD = Same dividends in USD but lower dividends in BTC. Not saying that btcQuick will pay lower dividends anytime soon, but it's something to be aware of. ....and those dividends will increase in value because BTC will be worth more. Point is that if btc rises a lot vs usd then holding the shares will perform worse than just holding btc. Thats why this and all other usd denominated investments have to be considered as a short on btc. That doesnt mean theyre bad investments just that investors need to be aware that theyre betting against btc by investing in a manner that will perform worse than just holding btc if btc rises vs usd faster thsn the business grows profits. Apologies for miissing apostrophes am on phone and too lazy to swap to symbols.
|
|
|
Oh, i see whats happened here now. Academic theorizing vs Real world application. Being a practical man myself, im going with the latter. It's not that at all. It's really just basic mathematics. You are assuming that as a business we sell X BTC a day, when in fact if BTC value goes up we still sell around our daily USD average and the # of total BTC sold actually goes down.
I believe that is exactly what Deprived is pointing out. When the price of BTC goes up, you sell LESS BTC, even if your USD sales are the same or growing. Your profits may look the same (or better) in USD, but dividends (shareholder portion of profits) are paid out in BTC, so you will end up paying out less BTC to shareholders. In his post, Ascension seems to be looking at this only from the standpoint of profits in USD, but shareholders only care about the amount of profit once it's converted back to BTC and paid out. Therefore, as with all businesses earning USD and paying dividends in BTC, shareholders must weigh the potential returns against simply holding BTC. Once everyone is on board with this concept, it might be worthwhile to discuss possible ways to protect shareholders by hedging against the currency risk. Yes - a rise in price won't reduce profit in USD, but it will in BTC. Ascension proves my point when he says if BTC value rises they still sell same USD average - meaning BTC sales have dropped. If BTC price doubles then USD value of sales would need to double to keep BTC profits at same level. And that's not possible when sales are constrained by capital and the capital is in USD (with the exception noted in next paragraph). The exception is where capital is not already being fully utilised - in that situation a rise doesn't necessarily reduce BTC profits. That was likely the case during the previous bubble/crash of BTC. But we know it's no longer the case as Ascension has mentioned having to sell more shares to increase capital - which wouldn't make sense if there was already sufficient capital for a significant expansion in sales. Pretty sad if the issuer doesn't even realise that the asset is actually USD denominated in practice - guess it'll take BTC rising and divdends falling for him to work out that if BTC rises vs USD then the same amount of USD becomes worth less BTC (which is all you actually need to know to realise that any asset whose revenue is constrained by capital and where capital is in USD MUST be USD-denominated in practice).
|
|
|
BTC-TC is back running but no sign of teh dividends processing. I gave it a while then cancelled both and resubmitted them for immediate payment. Nothing more I can do other than wait - expect it's just that there's a lot of load on the server and it'll have to clear that before processing them.
|
|
|
|