This is a reasonable analysis. Best watch out for our collision with the black long term trend line. It won't be pretty.  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/sSbk3zPZ-Bitcoin-is-Quiet-A-Little-TOO-Quiet-if-You-Ask-Me-BTC/Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Let's get right to it. Looking at the daily chart , you can see that the breakout of the large symmetrical triangle (in red) has failed to yield any real volatility . Instead, BTC -0.11% has morphed into another triangle formation (in blue,) as price continues to drift sideways. BTC -0.11% is almost at the apex of this blue triangle, so the triangle will only be in play for another 10 days or so.
If we look at the blue triangle's price action, to try to determine the most likely breakout direction, we can see that the bottom of the triangle has already been pierced on two separate occasions (pink circles.) Furthermore, the 50 EMA (in orange) has continued to provide powerful overhead resistance, as I had warned in my previous posts. Judging by these characteristics, it's clear that the highest probability direction is still sideways/lower. With that said, this is a situation where you definitely want to wait for a confirmation breakout, and some real volatility to emerge. Until we see something like that, sideways markets simply aren't a good place to trade.
There are some major things to watch out for though. On the upside, if we see a confirmed breakout above the 50 EMA and the top of the blue triangle, with a healthy volume spike, that would be a good sign for the bulls. Especially if price were to return to the top of the 50 EMA and hold it as support. That move in particular, is what I am watching for on the upside. If BTC -0.11% breaks above the 50, and then holds it as support, I will buy a subsequent bounce off of the 50, on nice volume .
On the downside, if we break down from the blue triangle, and begin to see some downside acceleration, I will short with a target at the rising black trendline . Ultimately, I believe that the most likely situation is that BTC -0.11% will continue to maintain it's low volatility state, as it drifts sideways to lower, until it runs into the black trendline . Some new future volatility would obviously change that perspective, but that is the most likely scenario at the moment.
On the MACD , there is something interesting to note. BTC's momentum just can't get above the zero line, which is a slightly bearish indication. It's interesting because the MACD's zero line is corresponding perfectly with the resistance provided by the 50 EMA . You can see that there is a long rising green support level on the MACD , and if momentum breaks below it, particularly with expanding momentum, that would be a nice sell signal.
Keep this in mind. If the buyers don't buy, the sellers WILL sell. The bulls can only run into that 50 EMA so many times, before the sharks jump in for some easy lunch. With that said, it's best to remain on the sidelines, until some real volatility begins to emerge.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.*** |
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Yes we aren’t going anywhere until we see volume.
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Update on 2014/18 cryptowinter model  Bob you might want to consider dollar cost averaging out starting nowish. |
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Disclaimer: I don’t want to give the impression that I care about bcash because I really don’t.
That said, I don’t see how Craig can win. Jihan controls more hashpower. That means Jihan can 51% attack SV at any time. For Craig to 51% attack ABC, he would have to remove almost all his hashing power from SV, leaving SV undefended. That just doesn’t seem sustainable. Maybe I am missing something.
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Could be indicating that we’re close to a trend reversal?
Well that is the question everyone is asking. My personal view is “no” because November is the strongest month of the year and so far our performance has been mediocre at best. If we were out of the bear market we should smash $7k. But we aren’t. I believe there is another big leg down below $5800 before we can bottom. But I can’t predict how low it will be. We will know it when we see it. |
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Sentiment is running comparatively high. Which may be a contra-indicator. First time I have seen it neutral.  |
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Let's just say hypothetically that the BCH fork(s) takes place on November 15 ... then wouldn't bitcoin actually experience upwards price pressures, rather than downwards based on a kind of resolution of some of the uncertainty
I take your point. In this case I don’t believe there is any uncertainty to play out. The fork will occur and there will be a hash war between two (or more) forks that few care about. BTC might go up due to buying pressure of speculators selling their BCH and buying BTC. But more likely the entire market will go down a notch when BCH dumps. |
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You think people are converting BTC to BCH ahead of their shit fork to get their free shitcoin’s & then convert back into BTC to increase their BTC stashes?
Yes but it’s not my cup of tea. I made a rule awhile ago that I only trade bitcoin and never touch shitcoins no matter how tempting. Most of the pump is probably finished by now anyway. |
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Aww fuck I just checked the price when did we dip down and how did I not notice?
Do you guys think this could be related to the SEC / Etherdelta case and the fact that the SEC said it would take a closer look at other exchanges ? No it’s just the BCH pump starting to unwind. We might get one more pump out of it by the 15th but it should be mostly finished. Tears and recriminations can come later. I would target 62xx or 61xx on 16 November. |
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crumbs you scared me there for a moment till i remembered you're a stamptard.
The Bitfinex risk premium skews the price upwards by $70. And Tether FUD distorts the TA. As for the new channel, let’s count our chickens on 16 November. |
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There is no scarcity with gold. It’s very easy to dig up more if the price goes up and exceeds your marginal cost of production.
Mining more gold is no different than printing more fiat. The only difference is you use haul trucks instead of printers.
Anyone who thinks otherwise knows nothing about modern mining.
It’s not the Jews. It’s Barrick, Anglo and Newcrest.
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You might even come away with a hat.
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Are you kidding? Do you think that the antics of (if I could put words into your mouth, inferring what I think is your attitude) J. Random Shitcoin somehow is having a negative effect upon your Anointed One?
To the contrary. Blind Freddie can see that the shitcoin antics have sparked a market wide rally, albeit of modest proportions for the Anointed One. It remains to be seen what happens at the special hour on 15 November but a downwards trajectory for BCH is probable. |
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I've never understood how lefties can be bitcoiners. They seem mutually exclusive.
How? Disaffected democrats such as myself don't trust the government and don't trust big corporations, (ie banks.) Bitcoin is a perfect fit. yeah, the "left" was fighting globalization well before the "right" figured it out And the right still thinks that billionaires are on the side of the little guy. |
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I've never understood how lefties can be bitcoiners. They seem mutually exclusive.
TIL I am mutually exclusive. In other news, mem pool is up. |
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The cynical view of the Bcash fork is as follows:
- November is historically the strongest month. Bitcoin almost always goes up in November
- The fork date is 15 November. This is smack in the middle of a rally month
- This date is a deliberate choice. Of the 365 days in the year, picking the single strongest price day of the year is no coincidence
- We know from past experience that forks cause price rallies
- The conclusion is that this hard fork date was deliberately chosen to create a rally
- Roger Ver has excellent skills at social media
- Crypto twitter and Reddit love a drama
- Roger Ver, Jihan Wu and Craig Wright all love a dollar
- They are not the sort of guys to let a disagreement over relatively minor technical aspects get in the way of making a dollar
- They certainly do not lose money to uphold obscure points of principle
- Therefore the purpose of this hard fork is to make money, with a story line played out in social media drama
- The most likely beneficiaries of a rally are existing bag holders
- The biggest bag holders are Jihan, Ver and Calvin Ayre (who controls Craig Wright)
- The most likely explanation is that the Bcash fork is just a whale game by Jihan, Ver and Ayre to suck the punters out of their money
- They will probably have a Kumbaya moment at some point and all will be forgotten, after they have lined their pockets
- Because after all, it’s just a game to them
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