I am not so sure. If XMR/XBT decides to spike during a XBT/USD bull market that way that LTC, NMC and even PPC spiked in the past this kind of thing can blow up real fast, not just for the short seller / borrower but also for the lender. I would be more the buyer of the shorted XMR who then takes delivery and waits for the whole short position to blow up.
Edit: Something about this reminds me of early 2012 when I was buying and taking delivery of XBT, while pirateat40 was busy building his massive XBT short position.
What do you think is problematic in the following scheme: - OTC market where people can list bids and asks for altcoin loans (maturity; sum; interest) - When match is made, the escrow takes full guarantee (typically 150% of the loan in BTC) - The altcoin is transferred from the lender's wallet to the borrower (that typically sells it) - Margin call when margin is less than 30%, forced liquidation at 15% (by the escrow) - At maturity, the borrower must have bought back the altcoin, return it with interest, and gets the escrowed BTC back. |
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What innovations / qualities does XMR possess that raises it from the fray and makes its long-lasting sustainability an investable probability?
Fair launch. Anonymity. Most people are simple. Those things are more than enough to make Monero a backbone of all honest people's finances. There is very little fair launch and anonymity in the world's fiat systems. Even Bitcoin is largely in the hands of bad guys. Gold and silver cannot be transacted. |
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A shocking fact to me is, how easy it has been to convince people that:
- Monero is now in the situation where Bitcoin was in 2010
- Monero fixes Bitcoin's worst flaw, lack of privacy.
People who have never owned Bitcoin are flocking into Monero starting about now. I am helping them by accepting fiat as payment.
How is Monero like Bitcoin in 2010? were you around at that time or is that from third party sources? Feels nothing like it to me, (Cryptonote itself, a somewhat different story) Not sure how much of that is attributed to the fact the concept of p2p decentralized crypto cash is already embedded into our consciousness however. I had my first impression about Bitcoin in 2009, about 15 seconds reading of a link I passed by. "Interesting idea, but something technical = does not apply to me". In late 2010, Bitcoin was a general topic of intense tabletalk in our investment community. Some people bought in, the majority felt that silver still had plenty of upside left (it did, until mid-2011). I skipped because of the illiquidity. I have always been presented with lots of investment ideas by my friends and I had learned to raise the minimum to $15k, to be able to manage the "portfolio of strange money-making schemes" properly. Bitcoin market would have risen tens of % if I invested $15k to scoop up BTC60k or so. In January 2011, we held an hour-long public debate from the topic: "Silver and Bitcoin - which one is the basis for the monetary system of the future". As the founder of Silverbank, I was advocating silver. I won by popular vote (lol). I made the decision to invest in Bitcoin sometime in the spring. But the price was "too high" (=$1, up 300% in just a few months). Wanted to wait until it calmed down. It didn't, instead went to $32. I was following the rise keenly, although with no holdings. When it tipped over, I strongly advocated people to sell at $25, either half or full holdings, since it would come down a lot and they could buy back cheaper. They in turn asked me to buy back at $10. I said that in my understanding, it would go all the way to $5 before resuming uptrend. When that was reached months later, I was ready to buy. ** What makes Monero like Bitcoin in 2010, are the following things: - something truly new - very much talk, discussion and debate in the circles that are in the forefront of technical and economic developments - totally outside the mainstream thinking and adoption, but holds clear promise to go there - ridiculously small market cap ($5M) - rich people cannot get in despite interest, due to illiquidity - difficult to buy (only BTC at present) - difficult to use (then most hold BTC at Gox, similarly now) - fanatical community doing what it takes to make it big - sense of belonging to the community The majority of people are not sensitive to energies, but the energy of Monero now is same as Bitcoin then. Currently Bitcoin's energy is foul, it has been so much raped by ruthless regulators, stolen by exchange owners and governments, is steered by a foundation that we don't know if it is trying to represent Bitcoin's best interests or not (with western governments, the good thing is we already know the answer and the truth makes us free). |
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...
Overall, I would venture to guess that BTSX has more short-term upside than e.g. XMR, and much, much less long-term upside. I am more confident of the latter than I am of the former, so I'm not playing it.
I wish there were a vehicle for shorting it (BTSX). But I wish that about almost every alt blockchain token. It should be possible to identify some of the large holders and negotiate with them a loan of BTSX. Then you just sell them to the market and hope to be buying back lower when the term expires. Sure there are practical issues with the interest rate and guarantee. I'd think that if this market would be structured around a central (or distributed) escrow that takes the full number of BTC as a guarantee from the borrower (short-seller), then the lender would be at peace that he is not being defaulted upon. The variable interest rate would make sure that there can be no collusion between the altcoin owners (" we don't participate in this activity"). Actually this is a sweet idea, properly done. I'd like to loan out my XMR against interest to the uninformed people that believe it will fall. |
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A shocking fact to me is, how easy it has been to convince people that:
- Monero is now in the situation where Bitcoin was in 2010
- Monero fixes Bitcoin's worst flaw, lack of privacy.
People who have never owned Bitcoin are flocking into Monero starting about now. I am helping them by accepting fiat as payment.
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Current tx fees are very low to keep XMR accessible to all users (about 1 cent per 24.4 KB)
when someone comes to me giving a factual example how his monero use actually suffers due to the fees, I will support him from my own pocket, considering this as a donation to monero ecosystem. Ok, dude, we are pool ops and we are paying tx fees from our profits. Now, when fee raised 20 times, it's significant impact. The fees go to the miners in the first place, so asking me to support your getting 20 times richer already, is understandably ROTFLMAO. Why so serious, man? I thought it would be funny! BTW, it seems exchanges in no hurry, I see last 15 blocks without transactions at all  Rolling on the floor laughing certainly means I found it funny  |
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Over time, the coins do get concentrated in the hands of a few smart people.
It has to be noted that persistent hoarding by these smart people greatly increases the value of everybody else's coins. The market cap of the unhoarded stock grows larger when the hoarded stock grows larger. |
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“It’s important to note that gold isn’t used as currency anywhere today,” said Ash."
Wait so these gold dinars aren't really used in Libya now? I heard Libya is glowing in the dark these days. Perhaps the idea to start using gold dinars was no so good in retrospect. "My mother should have seen that coming.", says Ahmed from his left mouth. |
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Current tx fees are very low to keep XMR accessible to all users (about 1 cent per 24.4 KB)
when someone comes to me giving a factual example how his monero use actually suffers due to the fees, I will support him from my own pocket, considering this as a donation to monero ecosystem. Ok, dude, we are pool ops and we are paying tx fees from our profits. Now, when fee raised 20 times, it's significant impact. The fees go to the miners in the first place, so asking me to support your getting 20 times richer already, is understandably ROTFLMAO. |
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Why do you think supporting more than two coins is less credible? Isn't it rational to assume different probabilities for different coins growing in market share over time? And that some of them might easily be a profitable investment over time? That seems to me like someone saying I'm only going to hold GOOG and APPL and nothing else.
Even if you believe that the probability of BTC and XMR reaching sky high market caps is extremely high, and much higher than any other currency, what makes you think it's an all or nothing situation? Right now we can see an extremely varied market with all sorts of new technologies covering different niches and different markets. Storj wants to replace Dropbox, Bitshares wants to service the business sector, and many more.
I'm not saying that any of these new currencies are necessarily going to succeed and gain 100mm+ market caps, but it's certainly possible and the probability is more than 0% I would think. All I'm saying is that as an investor why limit your portfolio?
Good post. Perhaps I am still disregarding the blockchain-technology based ventures, based on my prejudice that they are not functional as "coins", that is value storage and transfer. In this market the network effects will ensure that not many can prosper, and I believe that BTC and XMR are the winners. Lazy as I am, still waiting for you to promote the non-coin startups so that I might be convinced  |
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Current tx fees are very low to keep XMR accessible to all users (about 1 cent per 24.4 KB)
There is no known legitimate uses that require low transaction fees to be profitable. I am happy to raise them 5-10 times higher and when someone comes to me giving a factual example how his monero use actually suffers due to the fees, I will support him from my own pocket, considering this as a donation to monero ecosystem. ADD: It should be blatantly obvious that we don't want to sell 100 GB of blockchain space for $41k. Do the math dudes, for the sake of Monero! |
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Please help me: how have the coins changed?
I didn't mean that the coins have changed themselves in regards to their block rewards and similar things. What I meant was feature wise, some have new features that should be commented on and mentioned. Don't you think so? Well, I cannot reasonably support more than 2 coins without losing credibility. So the others don't interest me until either BTC or XMR bites the dust. If you want to educate others, please make an educated post!  |
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Necro. Just b/c following. Sorry  |
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Are you planning to make an update to this at all?
A lot of things have changed in regards to quite a number of coins.
You should also take another look at DRK.
Please help me: how have the coins changed? |
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I agree that the best way to leave Monero et al to the dust would be to lift the lid from Bitcoin price appreciation. The trendline allows for 10+ times higher price, which would mean that alts are destroyed (since they are priced in bitcoins).
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perhaps you should consider rephrasing "Bitcoin isn't any good to anyone in its current state" to "Bitcoin's ancillary services aren't any good to anyone in its current state"?
I am sure you have heard about Monero, which is anonymous, and can already work as a BTC mixer, and in the future as a standalone coin. |
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If you can estimate the adoption rate then it would simply be the point in time at which adoption and emission curves intersect. Pretty sure Rpitila has all the numbers to do this if he hasn't done so already. I would ballpark it at around Dec-Feb.
I think the demand has already outstripped supply, or is about to do so any week from now. BUT, because the beginning (from day 1 (and especially the exchange launch), until the point where demand is larger than emission) was bridged by speculators who bought the coin in anticipation of the demand starting, and by so doing kept the price rather high, it is not immediately obvious when the adoption overtakes emission. My calculation is that XMR is not loved by speculators currently, and even many who like the coin are temporarily out, waiting for the price to come down. This would mean rocket fuel at the point when it is clear to everybody that the 250-450 trading range is permanently behind us. But then again - I maybe the person who thinks about these the most, but it does not mean I am right...  |
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When will Monero explode?
I'd say less than a month. It's already up 20% per 7 days. But let's keep this thread clean |
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pricemin pricemax volume% cumulative
850 899 2 % 100 %
800 849 0 % 98 %
750 799 2 % 98 %
700 749 1 % 96 %
650 699 0 % 95 %
600 649 5 % 95 %
550 599 5 % 90 %
500 549 8 % 85 %
450 499 7 % 77 %
400 449 22 % 70 %
350 399 16 % 48 %
300 349 13 % 32 %
250 299 11 % 19 %
200 249 3 % 8 %
150 199 0 % 5 %
100 149 3 % 5 %
50 99 1 % 2 %
0 49 1 % 1 %
This shows that 48% of the volume has been traded below 0.00400. The all-time-average is 0.00410. Days above 0.00450 are rather rare (30% in total) whereas above 0.00650 is only 5% in total. The most traded range seems to be 0.00250-0.00450. I regard the current price as cheap, because 68% of the volume has been traded at a higher price. |
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I hope to soon post here a chart or table showing the amounts of moneros traded at any given price level (0-50k, 50-100k, etc.). In my opinion, monero has during all its exchange history been a rangebound coin. The all-time-weighted-average is about 400k, and most of the trade has been conducted at a narrow range of 300-500k. When the range is definitely broken, there is no knowing what the next trading range would be.
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