3) It took me MANY HOURS to download all the blocks.
Once you have the block chain you don't have to redownload it. It's a one time thing. Every time you'll open your client it'll only download the newest blocks that you are missing. 1) Instant. You're not considering the cost you incur for that instant payment. Also you can use an escrow/3rd party for instant payments.
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The price is tied to difficulty and overall network hashrate. If network hashrate increases more than difficulty then price will go down.
In which case the price for 1 BTC will be alot higher the day difficulty gets so high that mining is no longer profitable.
I'm not 100% sure if I've gotten the system right though. Can someone prove me wrong?
i don't know how to prove you wrong but difficulty & hash rate represent costs of mining for new coins. which should not misunderstood as value. especially value of all coins. the fact that anybody spend meat space money for hardware, electricity and bandwidth can not be simply interpreted as an equation between costs and exchange rate. it is a matter of demand and supply at what price level the trade happens. you can spend bazilions of kuna to buy & operate mining equipment but if no one wants to buy you either keep the coins or sell at what is offered. no one cares what did you spend on mining price follows difficulty because of people willing to help mint coins and add power to the hashing network because they can profit from this activity. if there would be no influx of new money through exchanges, the price would be still in a 10 cents limbo i thing that greed is leading, followed by difficulty. price is irrelevant. His point is that mining is the only source of inflation in the system. If the network hashrate increases a lot compared to difficulty, let's say 12 blocks an hour instead of 6, then for the time, until the difficulty adjusts, the supply of Bitcoin will increase. The point about mining being only 20% of the total market is irrelevant. It is the only inflationary component to the market, so it is the only one that naturally reduces price.
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I think the real question is whether or not bitcoin will appeal to the majority of people who are happy with our current financial system. If it doesn't, bitcoin may fade away or end up as a niche currency used for a tiny percentage of global financial transactions.
2 points towards that: 1) Even though people are culturally attached to strong governments, they are also culturally repulsed by the financial world in general, particularly by banks and bankers. I think one of the strongest sales pitch of Bitcoins to the masses is that it allows them to completely bypass banks. It doesn't matter how hard people are attached to the government and the currency it issues, this aspect of Bitcoin will sway them, because the populace instinctively knows their hero, the government, will never do a thing about the banks. 2) Tax evasion. Countries with high taxes also know a high level of tax haters and wannabe evaders. I am thinking about Western European countries. A tax inspector in France is akin to a rapist in people's heart. A more critical example is Greece, where tax evasion is almost a national sport. It is estimated over 60% of the Greeks evade taxes, and the government, under the pressure of the IMF and the EU, is starting a witch hunt. I think these people, even though they might not understand the full set of Bitcoin advantages, have a strong incentive to join it too.
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Someone told him that a prostitute dressed up like a hotel maid would be coming over and he could act out his rape fantasy with her.
... and then they sent in the legitmate hotel maid.
I thought about it, but if it's true, he should not have claimed everything was done under consent. He should have said the truth... or hiring a prostitute is punished more severely by NY state than trying to rape someone? It's illegal, but nowhere as bad as rape.
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You should add "don't join Deepbit" at the end...
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You guys are forgetting one point.
When the difficulty changes, the supply supported by a block resolution rate of about 10 per hour is now reduced to 6 per hour. That's effectively a lower supply for the days to come. Anyone selling for cheap right before a difficulty change is just throwing his coins away.
OH MY GOD WHATEVER WILL WE DO?! THERE'S ONLY 14,746,000 MORE COINS GOING TO BE MINTED AT A STEADY AND PREDICTABLE PACE IN THE FUTURE. IT'S PANDAMONIUM I TELL YOU! Too much caps, scary.
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It's funny because that question is answered every time the difficulty changes. Maybe these people could use the search function once in a while, you know... Have you tried it? Challenge: Give me a search phrase that can answer this question without browsing beyond the 3rd page of results. My first hit, after looking for 2 minutes: search "network hashing", match any words, check search in topic subjects only, limit it to the mining sub section. Only one page of results, 3rd from the bottom. Thread if from February. Now consider that you actually knew what you were looking for and you still had to go through all that. Implying the guy looking for it doesn't know? That's kinda odd. There's a wealth of information on the forum and anyone slightly better than me (not hard) with the search function can find answers faster than creating a thread about it. The other thing is, wouldn't it be nice if 5 out of 10 newcomers wouldn't start threads about deflation being bad or the network being vulnerable to the latest chimera Bitcoin haters come up with? I'm quite certain if people tried and search the forums for their questions instead of making a thread the second they have a question, we wouldn't be seeing such catastrophic headlines on the forums all the time, and we wouldn't have to perform damage control.
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You guys are forgetting one point.
When the difficulty changes, the supply supported by a block resolution rate of about 10 per hour is now reduced to 6 per hour. That's effectively a lower supply for the days to come. Anyone selling for cheap right before a difficulty change is just throwing his coins away.
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Excellent post goatpig, thank you very much for your reply. I may ask you more questions about what you said later, but I want to talk more about this Mt. Gox website and dark pool trading.
Do you or does anyone know a lot about Mt. Gox and BTC trading, specifically in dark pools for large amounts of BTC? Basically is there anything from stopping me and some other large volume BTC traders (if any exist and I can contact them) from allowing reciprocal access to our dark pool trading information and localizing liquidity during certain market conditions? This seems to be a bit unfair to everyone else, but if there are no rules preventing this then why not?
Anyone who is interested in colluding or knows more about this subject please do not hesitate to contact me privately.
There's the OTC (over the counter) channel on IRCfreenode with a web of trust application attached to it. Some of the most trusted traders over there have a lot of BTC on their hands. It's probably the second best place after MtGox to get ahold of BTC and it's definitaly further away from the spotlights than Gox. What is the channel name? I tried #OTC, but there is just one person in there. #bitcoinOTC on IRCfreenode if I recall correctly
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Excellent post goatpig, thank you very much for your reply. I may ask you more questions about what you said later, but I want to talk more about this Mt. Gox website and dark pool trading.
Do you or does anyone know a lot about Mt. Gox and BTC trading, specifically in dark pools for large amounts of BTC? Basically is there anything from stopping me and some other large volume BTC traders (if any exist and I can contact them) from allowing reciprocal access to our dark pool trading information and localizing liquidity during certain market conditions? This seems to be a bit unfair to everyone else, but if there are no rules preventing this then why not?
Anyone who is interested in colluding or knows more about this subject please do not hesitate to contact me privately.
There's the OTC (over the counter) channel on IRCfreenode with a web of trust application attached to it. Some of the most trusted traders over there have a lot of BTC on their hands. It's probably the second best place after MtGox to get ahold of BTC and it's definitaly further away from the spotlights than Gox.
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Is this a recommendation to trade USD for BTC?
Yes. I mean, there is a difference for a new comer between letting BTC generate and actually trading currency for BTC. Mining is a different approach to entering the BTC market. It is highly profitable right now, but it takes some time to set it up and get it running and requires rapidly depreciating computer hardware to run it, not to mention it his highly competitive. It is simply easier and faster to buy some BTC. Also anyone who bought BTC in early April is looking at much higher profits (3-4 times) than those who spend the exact same amount in mining rigs. For example, I do still do not understand the long-term viability of BTC, how prices are determined, and how anyone can predict the future success of BTC. BTC as a store of value has the same properties as gold, it thus naturally attracts anyone who can appreciate the qualities of gold. It offers those qualities in a different aspect, mainly that it is fully digitalized. That's the "sales pitch" to gold bugs. It is expected that anyone who values gold will value BTC for the same reasons, and part of those people will want to buy into BTC for the digital aspect. This is only considering BTC as a store of value. If some vendors start supporting it, then the sky's the limit. Given these points, the more BTC is publicized, the more newcomers show up wanting to buy some, and the higher the exchange rate goes. As long as BTC doesn't encounter a major system failure, there is nothing to stop it from growing. If people generating BTC do not grasp each of these subjects then how long would you expect for BTC to deliver a greater return than gold? What is the time horizon for this? Gold appreciates like 1% a month right now I think. From my own estimate, gathered from the recent press hits and the upcoming CIA conference in June, I'd expect BTC to be around $15 at least by early July. Considering it's waving around $6~$8 right now, that's about double in value. But don't take that for granted, it only my humble guess, establish your own estimate from the informations you gather.
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It would probably be better to send this kind of information privately to the developers. There is no need to post it publicly unless they ignore you. There is a list of developers and their emails on www.bitcoin.org. Thanks for your suggestion. I just tried to post these issues to generate a healthy discussion of the use of some robust static analysis tool for the bitcoin project. I have raised these issues in the github bitcon. Just the some pointers from the client's GUI classes that aren't deallocated at clean up. Nothing serious, just messy coding.
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increased network
stock search
10 seconds
5th result
I got owned
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It's funny because that question is answered every time the difficulty changes. Maybe these people could use the search function once in a while, you know... Have you tried it? Challenge: Give me a search phrase that can answer this question without browsing beyond the 3rd page of results. My first hit, after looking for 2 minutes: search "network hashing", match any words, check search in topic subjects only, limit it to the mining sub section. Only one page of results, 3rd from the bottom. Thread if from February.
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So you say BTC is more "secure"? Tell me again why this security is so much better than trusting a DGC service.
Because the DGC provider of your choice can chose tomorrow to freeze your account, let's say because some government felt like getting in the way at a whim. With BTC, your wealth is in your wallet and no one can do a thing to it. To use DGCs, you have to go through a middle man. That middle man is a single point of failure, because he has full control over your entire deposit. With BTC, there is no need for a middle man, for BTC is naturally digital. This avoids that single point of failure case. even though BTC has no exchange and prices cannot be determined by market participants nearly as easy as gold or silver. That is true, for the BTC market is still quite thin. It still needs time to grow. That's a disadvantage. The advantage is that this growth holds a much higher potential for appreciation than gold does, since gold has already spread to its full market capacity. Technically, you'd be willing to sacrifice convenience for more security and the chance to get a great return on investment for simply sitting on your wallet. As such, you should consider keeping a little of your wealth in BTC, let's say 1-10%. If you find it to eventually suit your expected level of convenience and usability, you can then start to move more of your wealth on the system.
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The next difficulty jump is estimated to be 639946. Is this normal? To my new eyes it seems very big.
That estimate too is based on estimate network hashrate estimate. First corruption implies second corruption of estimate. So every new user is supposed to search for something they dont know happens or exists using their mighty psychic powers of past and future knowledge? When I see something odd, I search the forums first. Then if I can't find, I'll post. Just sayin
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It absolutely depends what you are mining with. Slower hardware will get more stale shares.
I have a 4650 that mines at about 22MH/s, and it gets 7% stale shares. But my 5850 gets 0.36% stale shares. Regardless, if you're using deepbit, he pays you for those stales anyway.
Oh, that's interesting. My 5% rate was with a 5770 at around 150 MH/s Perhaps the stale rate from Deepbit is so high because blocks are solved much quicker? 5% seems very high. No, that's global. If global hashrate goes up, blocks are found faster, thus drop shares increase regarding your hashing output. The size of a single pool doesn't influence that, since you'll drop a share once a block is found anywhere else in the network, for the pool has to build up a new block header.
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Funny how every time there's a diff jump the hashrate calculation approximation has to be re-explained Why do we laugh at new people for asking legitimate questions? Were they supposed to have read the forums a thousand feet deep and figured this out on their own? They should be laughing at us for having a 50 million dollar "economy" around a website that still doesn't have SSL after all this time, and a program whose user interface is so dinky and devoid of help that it wouldn't even make the Apple App Store as a free app just for its complete lack of intuitiveness alone. It's funny because that question is answered every time the difficulty changes. Maybe these people could use the search function once in a while, you know... i'm not an expert. someone can correct me if I'm wrong but I think when the difficulty changes the hashrate is re-calculated. it is expected that a new block will be discovered ~every 10 mins. At the start of the difficulty level if some blocks are found faster than that then the calculated hashrate is higher than it is in reality. When more blocks are mined at this difficulty level the time to mine them will average out to a more representative period for the real hash rate. More or less. The network hashrate is established by comparing block resolution speed with difficulty. It's simply an estimate. The block resolution speed is an average taken on whatever period of time. The thing is, when the difficulty jumps up, the average used is still the one established on data from the previous difficulty. Until that sample time spans entirely into blocks found at new difficulty, the estimate will be corrupt.
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goldgram?
Those services are centralized in that you HAVE to go through a 3rd party that has absolute control over account and balance. Simply put, it's not easy to hold "digitalized" gold, and it creates a security gap. Bitcoin goes around that, since it's digital to begin with. Bitcoin also has the potential to turn into a currency as is, when gold needs that digital layer.
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Funny how every time there's a diff jump the hashrate calculation approximation has to be re-explained Go ahead, I know you're burning to explain it!
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