Risk premium on Tether slowly dropping following last week BFX panic

Institutions are unlikely to take physical delivery, because they would need institutional grade infrastructure to store them.  And that is expensive.  You don’t want to be the IT director that lost $400 million in Bitcoin or allowed it to be stolen.  

But physical delivery means actual bitcoins have to held in the exchange accounts equal to the number of bitcoins traded on the exchange.  If Bakkt becomes popular, physical bitcoin gets locked up in the exchange, reducing supply in the rest of the market, driving up price.  

That is quite different from CBOE / CME which are paper trades tied to an index.  I assume Bakkt will not need to be tied to an index - it will be an independent market in its own right. 

“Liquidation as a stop”

Full credit for holding to your principles.

You have waited this long.  You can wait until 2021.

Yes. Sideways is bullish.  




I think they can self-certify under CFTC rules but I might be wrong.

Consolidating nicely sideways. Onwards and outwards.

Ok here we go.  Let's talk long term.   All $ are Bitstamp.  

1.  We appear to be in the process of breaking out from under the bear triangle.  By simply tracking sideways, we can escape the crushing weight of the past 8 months.  Going sideways is very bullish.

2.  October is historically a bullish month for Bitcoin (excluding 2014).  

3.  We appear to be diverging from the 2014 fractal.  October 2014 was bad for the price but we are mildly rallying.   This is a bullish signal. 

4.  There is some great news coming out at the moment.  

5.  Shorting is really hard work.  It feels like there is deep pocket support just below where we sit.  Shorts are slowly starting to fall as traders shift their stance.  

but

The support line from the crypto winter (show here as the lower red line) is rising from the deep.  It is still at a fair depth and not yet in play.  But it is big and fast and mean.   And it will hit us like a freight train.

The Russian seer (Penthuldar??) says that this support line will lift us us into the new price range.  But he is wrong, because he does not study his history.  We broke through the historic exponential price floor during the 2014 cryptowinter, and it was this break that caused the final capitulation to $154.  We also broke the previous exponential price floor in November 2012, which led us to the final capitulation and crash to $2.22.  It is almost certain that we will break through the cryptowinter support line and then crash in price.  This crash is likely to be our final capitulation, so we can start the long climb out.   The really critical question is, what will our altitude be when we hit the wall?  If we have a high enough altitude (green line), then we can still fall after we break through and bounce off support at $5,800.    If we bounce off $5,800 after breaking the cryptowinter support line and manage to consolidate above it, then we will have seen the bottom because the halvening will start to come into play as we move deeper into 2019.  

On the other hand, if we are too low (yellow line), then the shock of breaking the cryptowinter support line will cause us to break downwards through the $5,800 support and potentially get caught underneath it, like a fox that breaks through a frozen lake and drowns under the ice.  

I am turning bullish right now, because it looks like we are slowly gaining altitude so we can follow the trajectory of the green line, and not the yellow line.  




https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/52d3tpdU-Bitcoin-bear-trend-may-be-breaking-but-serious-challenges-ahead/

 

Glad you raised this because we need to have a chat about the longer term.  There are some fairly serious factors starting to come into play now. I do not believe we will have long directionless period, at least not in the next 3 months.  Will post when I can get to a computer.  

Going to meet someone that has about 2,500 little puzzles they need to solve.  We will have a chat about whether I can solve them in a way that is economic for them and profitable for me.

Where you going ?

Happy flight dude. This is me

I am only a bear when the chart looks like a diseased dick.  And it’s looking starting to look better.  

Of course if we drop $300 back inside the red triangle I will go grumpy again...


Fabulous.  In every sense.

Its just you and me left Mic.  The last bulls left standing in the WO.  Bitcoin is pushing hard out from under the bear triangle.  Go Bitcoin Go !



https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/8tElbIx6-Bear-model-continues-to-be-challenged/

You guys are all such bears.  

If you very gently scale in you risk an inconsequential amount and after that your stop should stay in profit  but yes.  It’s extremely speculative right now.

Buy with tight stop.

Red line is bear trend line.  We are continuing to creep away from it.  If we can just hold the current price for another few days, this will be a bullish signal.  

We are currently range bound between $6350 and $6490.  Expect an explosive move if either of those breaks. 



https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/4F60KDTH-Bitcoin-creeps-sideways-out-of-the-bear-trend/