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Obviously this post isn't for the buy&hold crowd, but for those who like to increase their btc 5-50times inbetween rallies.
Anyway, once btc breaks out, how do you know how high it's going to go? For example, when it breaks out from 16, 32 might seem very high and a good time to sell, but then it goes to 64, where it also seems like a fantastic time to sell, and at that point it goes to 128, etc... So how, at 266, would you know that it's finally a good time to sell and not at 512?
What indications are there when a btc rally is about to end or that a crash is about to occur? What could be seen at 32, at 7, at 15, and at 266? Is there a certain TA indicator you look at? Is there something in the blockchain you trace?
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Bidsum up to 13.33M. I wonder if people are actually depositing on gox now or if this is money that was on the sidelines.
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It depends how high of an order the exchange allows. So it could theoretically be an order for 1 bitcoin at $400,000,000USD, or one satoshi at $40,000,000,000,000,000USD/BTC...  |
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The other poll was not about where it would stabilize but where it would peak (bottom).
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The bid depth is now scary as hell!
Huh? Scary in which sense. i286 shows 2500 coins down to 121 USD (from 126.7 where we are now). For bitstamp, which in the past has been more of a "seller's exchange" that's a pretty good depth actually. Or did I misunderstand what you meant by "scary"? Yesterday the depth was 1.9m. Now it is less than 1.4. I have been seeing walls getting removed all day. Even a bunch of those walls at 100 are gone. |
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The bid depth is now scary as hell!
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Most of the recent difficulty jump are 30%, generated from BFL mass shipping, bitfury deployment and together with kncminer's 28nm ASICs launch, these all make the coin much more difficult to get for anyone
The silk road shutdown just showed that currently no any kind of negative news could affect the bullish trend of bitcoin. People usually say, if the price don't fall when it should fall, then it will rise later, we are going to see a rally very soon, target area at least $500
I can give you a corrolary: We've had all the bullish news in the world yet can't pass the same resistance level after 2 months. This tells me were maxed out for now at the highest possible sentiment. Now what if the bullish news stops, or what if there's some bearish news? The sr crash shows the stagnant market is a ticking bomb waiting to go down at the slightest change of sentiment. I don't agree with that. We are not maxed out because every new bitcoin business slowly brings more people to the table who by using bitcoins take them from the market. We are just building up and everything is ahead of us. There are still many many people who don't know how to benefit from bitcoin . Well bitcoin itself isn't maxed out but the sentiment given the current state of bitcoin IS maxed out. This means that in order for bitcoin to move forward, some significant and corporeal development needs to occur, and this is certainly possible. However, the level of effort needed for bitcoin to drop is relatively minor. Some simple event can occur, such as... mtgox enables withdrawals. Actually, merely the sentiment needs to reverse, which can occur via something psychological. Some keywords we haven't seen in a while: mtgox, withdrawal, bankruptcy, hacker, worm, legislation, fork, capitulation, winklevoss, scalability. |
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These dumps and asks walls have been happening the entire past 2 months. Obviously a whale or a few whales have decided to capitulate around 127. If you look at bitcoin's history, it takes tons of volume to break past these major resistance levels and go into a rally. If we only do low volume, there will just be endless walls, and tiny fake breakouts followed by brutal market sells and new walls.
China broke, killed, destroyed this resistance. Doesnt matter, the Chinese markets will have different resistance levels due to different investors and lower volume. They clearly broke resistance that Gox and Stamps have yet to defeat and it wasn't easy, if btc charts was working you could see the surge of volume that allowed them to break the resistance. ( i'm sure you saw it earlier... anyway ) maybe the chinese people just got overly excited and don't actually have enough steam to sustain the price, but so far so good over there Not sure if gox and stamps can follow, the resistance is maybe too strong, some unexpected good news could do it ( ex. secondmarket says they sold all their bitcoins are loaded the boat and are now ready to satisfy more clients! ) I know there was one day that btc100 reported doing over 100,000 volume, but that was it and we thought it was a system error or they were reporting the wrong units or something. Did anyone ever clear that up, and was there anything besides that? |
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Why is this a discussion? We can see the bid depth and we know that most of the major exchanges lock and execute market orders all at once without giving any bids time to fill in. Even on mtgox that is somewhere below $1.
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Most of the recent difficulty jump are 30%, generated from BFL mass shipping, bitfury deployment and together with kncminer's 28nm ASICs launch, these all make the coin much more difficult to get for anyone
The silk road shutdown just showed that currently no any kind of negative news could affect the bullish trend of bitcoin. People usually say, if the price don't fall when it should fall, then it will rise later, we are going to see a rally very soon, target area at least $500
I can give you a corrolary: We've had all the bullish news in the world yet can't pass the same resistance level after 2 months. This tells me were maxed out for now at the highest possible sentiment. Now what if the bullish news stops, or what if there's some bearish news? The sr crash shows the stagnant market is a ticking bomb waiting to go down at the slightest change of sentiment. |
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A website going down was one thing but if the MERCHANTS keep getting busted left and right, then the network of trust will be broken and fear will take over,. Some business may continue but the average joe will drop out, decreasing volume/demand. Get your fiat ready.
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This 110 just happens to be where it fell to on GOX. Gox is less relevant these days as it has less volume and has no fiat entering or leaving. Bitstamp is where real sellers would have sold their coin as you can actually cash out there. Now what do you make of the drops on bitstamp and btce?
Bitstamp fell to 85 and btce fell to 75! You can't draw any similar lines involving THESE prices.
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If you watched btce on bitcoinity this evening, you could see it flickering with thousands of tiny trades at 121.99 and 121.98 with no resulting movement in price.
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Your btc are backed by the value, either in fiat or in goods and services, that you will be able to redeem them for somewhere, either now or at any point in the future in which you choose to spend them.
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Last 24 hours:
Bitstamp: 10670
Btce: 8107
Mtgox: 5498
There is some bot malfunctioning on btce today but still that's quite a laugh that even btce's volume is higher, and gox has bots too.
Over the weekend I saw one point where gox had 2400 volume...
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I'm going to place a bid around $1 on bitstamp just in case...
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I don't get the purpose of this thread anymore. Gox has become completely irrelevant. It is merely a slave to bitstamp. There is no fiat entering or exiting this exchange - it's merely a game of bots and traders who bet against eachother on price movements - which originate on Bitstamp. Bitstamp is where the fiat flows in an out of the btc economy now.
Who told you that money can't be withdrawn from gox? There are posts all over this forum from people who have waiting months for their withdrawals in several threads. There are even bounties to prove a successful withdrawal from mtgox, which haven't been taken. |
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I don't get the purpose of this thread anymore. Gox has become completely irrelevant. It is merely a slave to bitstamp. There is no fiat entering or exiting this exchange - it's merely a game of bots and traders who bet against eachother on price movements - which originate on Bitstamp. Bitstamp is where the fiat flows in an out of the btc economy now.
Bitstamp also doesn't have as much volume. So that says something. I think bitstamp's volume is real volume (people entering and leaving btc) whereas gox's volume is bots and traders that trade the same coins back and forth all day a dozen times. So the differences in volume may not have as much meaning as it seems. |
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I don't get the purpose of this thread anymore. Gox has become completely irrelevant. It is merely a slave to bitstamp. There is no fiat entering or exiting this exchange - it's merely a game of bots and traders who bet against eachother on price movements - which originate on Bitstamp. Bitstamp is where the fiat flows in an out of the btc economy now.
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