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4381  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why is Bitcoin so stable in price after a big drop? on: September 09, 2018, 10:26:05 AM
I've noticed it for a very long time: Bitcoin often has a stable price for a long time, then suddenly drops hard or shoots up. It dropped a few times in the past week, and as usual, it's very stable for a while after the drop. Yesterday's drop is no exception

this is typical of all markets. they're called range contraction and range expansion periods.

the two days of sideways after the selloff is usually called a bearish consolidation or bear flag because the subsequent range expansion usually continues in the direction of the original trend.

My guess is this is manipulation, and my next guess is someone is waiting for order books to be filled before placing another big sell (or buy) order which will cause the next price jump.

why does everyone around here assume manipulation is happening? Cheesy this kind of action can be completely organic IMO.
4382  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: When did people start caring what Goldman Sachs has to say about Bitcoin!? on: September 09, 2018, 08:47:12 AM
I don't suppose it is that much about caring what Goldman Sachs, SEC, and others say about bitcoin. it is mostly about what they say can affect bitcoin price, in other words it is about speculation.
for example I assure you nobody in bitcoin world gives a flying fuck about what Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan says about bitcoin but bitcoin price dropped about 30% IIRC last year when he called bitcoin "fraud". in a way it has turned into a tradition among market players that whenever some FUD is spread about bitcoin, everyone panic sells. and the funny thing is they sell because they want to buy back more of it not because they think bitcoin is over! Cheesy

i'm sure it wasn't jamie dimon uttering a few words that caused BTC to drop 30%. Cheesy

it might have coincided with the correction---IIRC, that story dropped right in the middle of it. but the drop had much more to do with general market conditions and profit taking because we had just made a new ATH and price was going parabolic. good traders expected a harsh pullback given the magnitude of the preceding rise.
4383  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: September 30, 2018 - SEC ETF Ruling on: September 09, 2018, 08:30:01 AM
And as @pooya87, have said, price manipulation has took another turn. We all know that weak hands has left already specially newbie traders.

i'm not so sure about that. back in 2014 and 2015, the price slowly bled until weak hands capitulated in a high volume selloff at the bottom. this time around, we never saw a high volume capitulation (yet).

i think the weak hands are still with us. we'll see how it all plays out. Cheesy

We might see another postponement though. So it this happens expects the price to go deep again. Better prepare and make the necessary adjustments, so you won't get disappointed if SEC delays or reject another Bitcoin ETF proposal.

plan on it. the SEC spelled everything out---nothing is getting approved until the underlying market changes.
4384  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why BTC rates in Iran is so high on: September 09, 2018, 08:17:47 AM
my title is the question and I am wondering if i can sell bitcoin to the people in Iran via Local Bitcoin . If not , please give me a reason

what country are you in? in the USA and several other countries, doing business with iranians is prohibited due to the ongoing economic sanctions. and the penalties for violating sanctions are very steep: fines up to $1 million and up to 20 years in prison for each violation. i would avoid getting involved with this if i were you. Wink

it also seems like there is indeed a premium for BTC in iran, but it's much smaller than originally reported.
4385  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will Satoshi sell his bitcoins? on: September 09, 2018, 08:00:09 AM
i think the probability that satoshi is either dead, or that he destroyed the private keys to his early mined BTC, are high. he acknowledged the implications of mass adoption (extremely high prices), but he seemed genuinely uninterested in making money off BTC.

In my opinion Satoshi might still be alive and he might be slowly selling his coins backwards.

Basically if he sells the BTC that he mined in 2009, then its very easy to track him down and with all the wealth he possesses he might get tracked down, kidnapped, or even some governments might want to have a word with him.

He solo mined most of his coins in 2009, but how do we know if he didn't GPU mine some coins in 2010 with a mining pool which would of made the coins harder to link to him.

satoshi came off pretty altruistic. given the lack of miners in the early days, why would he have any need to pool mine in 2010? anything is possible, but i sort of doubt that scenario given that he said this:

We should have a gentleman's agreement to postpone the GPU arms race as long as we can for the good of the network.  It's much easer to get new users up to speed if they don't have to worry about GPU drivers and compatibility.  It's nice how anyone with just a CPU can compete fairly equally right now.
4386  Economy / Speculation / Re: Satis Group-Bitcoin might reach 96K by 2023 on: September 09, 2018, 07:42:04 AM
in the future monero will be #2 coin, eventually 1 XMR = 1 BTC

Extremely delusional. Monero may pump a lot in the future, but it will never get anywhere near BTC.

The big problem with trading Monero (and I have been tempted to do so) is that once you are rich and you want to buy a nice house with your gains, there will be a big question mark in your trading history, thanks to Monero's obfuscated blockchain. So if they demand proof of origin of funds, unless you never leave your exchange, you may end up in problems.

who are "they?" monero obfuscates the origin of funds at the protocol level. how can anyone "demand" proof that doesn't exist? privacy doesn't equate to illegality. (not yet anyway)

it's good to think through the possibilities, but refusing to trade XMR because you're scared of the government? that's crazy. there's nothing illegal about XMR. (unless you're in one of the few countries where crypto is straight up banned)

Just imagine that you buy Monero in Binance or some other exchange, you put it into your Monero wallet, wait some months, Monero goes x100 and you want to sell for BTC. You send your XMR into Binance again to sell, and within this move is the problem. If they ask you to see this transaction, how do you do it? you can't show them in the blockchain, and believe me they are and will get increasingly anal about things. They will want every detail, and they will look for gaps within your trading history to confiscate your money, and then you are fucked and you no longer can buy your dream house, and maybe even end up with a big fee. So yeah, before you do any of this, at least be sure the jurisdiction in which you do it will not screw you up bigly.

are there any reports out there of this actually happening?
4387  Economy / Economics / Re: Tether(USDT) and the crypto world on: September 08, 2018, 09:38:14 AM
First question that begs to be asked, why would you want to mid/long-term hold USDT instead of BTC or FIAT?

rationally, you wouldn't. there is simply too much counterparty risk in bitfinex and tether. you shouldn't hold USDT for the mid/long-term for the same reason you shouldn't store funds on exchanges for the mid/long-term. tether could be shut down by regulators or fined into insolvency, they could exit scam or get hacked. it's much more sensible to sell on the exchange (or OTC) and wire USD into your bank account.

the exception is those that are dodging taxes or KYC. if you need to hedge the USD value of your coins without leaving paper trails to your bank account, USDT markets can be an option. binance comes to mind.

Second question, who would want to hold 2.5B USDT? Where is 2.5B USDT stored right now?

i imagine exchanges hold most of it. binance and a slew of other altcoin exchanges have fairly liquid USDT markets.
4388  Economy / Speculation / Re: When will the bull run start? on: September 08, 2018, 09:14:08 AM
The main difference between the current and 2014/2015 bear market is that right now we don't have MtGox to worry about. I'm certain that if MtGox didn't collapse back then, the low in 2015 would be far above $150.

why?

people drastically overestimate the importance of mt gox. i was part of multiple trading communities, and pretty much everyone had aready moved to bitfinex, bitstamp, btc-e/mt4, chinese exchanges (okcoin, huobi, btcc). most traders left because gox had already been having fiat withdrawal delays for many months.

they had far less share of world trading volume than people say. the scope of the BTC losses were due more to gox being used as a massive online wallet. and remember, the gox collapse locked up lots of available supply. everyone who lost coins had to buy back whatever they could.

MtGox gave the bear market extra fuel to keep thriving, which looking back, was the best ever "recent" buying opportunity. I don't think think we have to wait another year to fully bottom out.

i dunno. gox collapsed in february 2014. the market bottomed in august 2015. i really don't think it fueled the bear market for 1.5 years. that was just post-bubble supply and distribution. the same thing is possible now.
4389  Economy / Speculation / Re: Satis Group-Bitcoin might reach 96K by 2023 on: September 08, 2018, 09:00:54 AM
Talking about shorter time frames, here is a relatively short-term prediction for the price of bitcoin by 2020 done by Prof. Panos Mourdoukoutas from the Department of Economics at LIU Post, NY.

There are two scenarios based on two models.

Bullish scenario: a model (Haye’s model) which takes into account the supply aspect of bitcoin, predicts a price of $55,931 by 2020.

Bearish scenario: a model (Wheatley model) which takes into account the bitcoin use (the demand aspect of bitcoin), predicts a price of $2,352 by 2020.

How good these predictions are? Probably not that accurate. With Bitcoin, we have seen that theoretical models can rarely predict the actual situation. What is certain is that the supply side will kick in, and we obviously need the use of bitcoin to follow the supply as well.

it's certainly interesting to see these models employed, but i'm skeptical as hell. i don't believe we have nearly enough data on circulating supply (lost coins, dormant coins) to speak about supply with any real level of confidence. very little BTC is actually on exchanges, producing the spot price.

i also think demand is impossible to quantify, let alone predict. we'll just have to let time do its thing, and enjoy the ride! Smiley
4390  Economy / Speculation / Re: Satis Group-Bitcoin might reach 96K by 2023 on: September 08, 2018, 07:31:14 AM
According to Satis Group(google it,if you don't know anything about them) Bitcoin price will reach 96K USD by the end of 2023 and 144K USD by the end of the next decade(around 2030).

seems too slow, considering how human psychology works. i'm convinced at this point that bitcoin's future is fairly binary---mass adoption or bust. if you consider how much of the supply is already mined and/or lost, i think we'll have a gold rush on our hands. $96k isn't even 5x above the previous ATH. i expect much higher, and probably much sooner than 2023.

the top is always higher than you think. and the bottom is always lower. markets love to stay irrational! Wink
4391  Economy / Exchanges / Re: Shapeshift 'membership' launched on: September 08, 2018, 07:20:09 AM
wasnt shapeshift moved away from america and also away from FIAT to only handle cryptoswaps purely to avoid the AML/KYC mumbo jumbo..

i think they just destroyed their niche now..

oh wait. i see now...  greed
" Our increasing interest in the broad phenomenon of tokenization – the ability to “financialize” and bring liquidity to various aspects of business/customer relationships. "

if you read between the lines, it's regulators or law enforcement agencies that are pressuring them. this talk about "legal grey area" and "navigating the regulatory environment" means one thing to me: shapeshift got too damn big, the feds are breathing down their neck, and voorhees is caving to the pressure.

i don't blame him---the risk of not complying is huge. for example, FINCEN fined btc-e $110 million for AML violations, on top of the criminal charges.
4392  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Which Bitcoin is Bitcoin? on: September 08, 2018, 07:03:25 AM
I do not wish to start up a discussion on merits of the various forks, but I was wondering if there was a handy guide somewhere that lists all the different variations of bitcoin that are out there?

I know there was the original 2009 or so "Satoshi Nakamoto" version of Bitcoin that (t)he(y) developed and released.

Then there was Bitcoin Cash.

Now there is Bitcoin Core.

"bitcoin core" is the reference implementation of the bitcoin protocol. "bitcoin" is the native currency of that protocol. "bitcoin cash" and its associated currency is just a spinoff fork of the original protocol---there could be hundreds or thousands of such copycats. don't be fooled into thinking they are equivalent. only 21 million BTC will ever exist, and spinoffs/copycat currencies can't be passed off as BTC.

If I want to purchase "Bitcoin Cash" I am supposed to purchase the ticker "BCH", that much I have figured out. If someone wanted to invest in the original bitcoin vision of the "Satoshi Nakamoto" person(a), which symbol am I buying?

forget the "original vision" stuff. that's a matter of opinion. "BTC" is compatible with the bitcoin protocol from the early days. there have never been any incompatible/hard forks since the early days of satoshi.

What if I want to purchase the vision of the folks who want to modify the original bitcoin which I understand is called "Bitcoin Core". Which of these am I buying when I am buying "BTC", and what is the ticker for the other version?

Thanks in advance.

not sure if you're trolling or just been reading to much bcash propaganda. "bitcoin core" is compatible with the bitcoin protocol. "bitcoin cash" is not. which is closer to the "original bitcoin" as you call it?
4393  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2018-09-06] Goldman Sachs CFO says bank is working on bitcoin derivative for cl on: September 07, 2018, 08:13:52 PM
I knew it was sort of a fake news because the media just spun the news out of control. Causing panic sellers to push the sell button immediately without waiting for any official Goldman Sachs statement. And now when everthing's clear, the price has somewhat recovered and recovery has started slowly ($6400-$6500). Goldman Sachs is under pressure from their client's to really put up some program regarding anything related to crypto. Crypto is slowly moving up, and investors are willing to pour money in the ecosystem. And these global investment banking and investment management firm perhaps will be the gateway to the needed funds in the market.

This is another proof that there are two kinds of news. The one for the insiders and the one for the masses. The news for the masses should be always taken with a grain of salt.
For instance the bullish news on CNBC usually end up with either bearish price action or a fake pump that ends up in a huge dump soon after. Same with those coindesk price predictions.

that's where the old trader mantra "sell the news" comes from. if you think about it, it makes sense. you have people buying in anticipation of good news, so in the "rumor" stage, price is bullish. but once the news drops, everyone has already bought and there is nothing left to do but sell. the insiders sell the news, and then the trapped bulls sell afterwards when their expectations are crushed.

i've seen this play out too many times to ever take any news seriously. 9 out of 10 times, you should sell the news whether it's good or bad.
4394  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2018-09-06] Goldman Sachs CFO says bank is working on bitcoin derivative for cl on: September 07, 2018, 10:04:38 AM
Quote
A top Goldman Sachs executive looked to clear the air Thursday about the bank’s cryptocurrency ambitions after reports that it was abandoning plans to open a trading desk for cryptocurrencies.

“I never thought I would hear myself use this term but I really have to describe that news as fake news,” Goldman Sachs Chief Financial Officer Martin Chavez said on stage at the TechCrunch Disrupt Conference in San Francisco.

it's been widely said that yesterday's dump was due to the goldman sachs rumors. the fact that they're now calling it "fake news" yet price hasn't recovered at all should tell you---the dump wasn't because of news. it was just the market being a market. price meandered weakly into a major resistance area ($7500) and bears sold into it. enough said.

Quote
The CFO said Goldman is working on a type of derivative for bitcoin because “clients want it.”

that's interesting to hear, especially after blackrock's CEO said clients had zero interest in crypto just a couple months ago.
4395  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: New To This Forum on: September 06, 2018, 06:46:44 AM
Hi guys, I've been a part of online gaming and been aware of the impact bitcoin has in the sports betting industry. My interest in other cryptocurrencies has only begun and it would also be nice to learn how Bitcoin has innovated other industries as well.

it's great for online gaming and sportsbetting, and any sort of commerce that faces banking problems. i've noticed that my regular online poker rooms have all embraced BTC and actively encourage people to use it. that's no surprise when credit cards (high fees and fraud risks) are one of the primary alternatives. i've also had checks bounce and delayed wires due to bank freezes and seizures, so cashing in and out with BTC is much faster and smoother for both player and cardroom.

i've also noticed that cannabis seed breeders and wholesalers have embraced BTC. seedsman (the biggest global wholesaler) offers deep discounts and free seeds to anyone that pays with BTC.
4396  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: [for merits] How will the introduction of Schnorr signatures affect Bitcoin? on: September 06, 2018, 06:39:23 AM
Schnorr signatures have absolutely nothing to do with wire tapping, or i must have missed something.

I seem to remember reading an article which suggested that the privacy possibilities with Schnorr signatures may help in the event of government wire tapping. It was a bit of a secondary comment in the article though.

i'm not sure how. as i understand it, schnorr signatures simply incentivize coinjoin-type transactions (they'll become cheaper).

anyway, wire tapping implies they're already analyzing your internet traffic and probably hitting up your ISP and third party services for your logs. coinjoin adds some obfuscation, but some transactions can be revealing on their face due to input/output amounts. and it has problems that would be magnified by said traffic analysis. for example, they are prone to sybil attacks: if they know where you participate in coinjoins, they can act as the other participants to decipher your transactions. plus, the server-based coinjoin model is problematic because it entrusts whoever runs the server with your data (like electrum servers)---more honeypot fears. and IMO it probably won't save you if they're already linking your wallet outputs to you with a high probability (see here). and if you're tapped, you better be encrypting outgoing traffic---but then you better hope your VPN isn't a government honeypot. yes i'm paranoid! Tongue

if you think you're getting tapped, you should be thinking bigger than schnorr signatures...... Smiley
4397  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: New member, still time to get in on the rocket ship? on: September 06, 2018, 06:03:40 AM
Hello, I am new into the crypto community. I will admit back when bitcoin came out (or I was first hearing of it, 2008-2009?) I was skeptical, I even passed up several opportunities for FREE bit coin offered to me, and I did not take it. I said it was worthless. Here I am 10 years later, 26, working a fast food job, watching the crypto market fly, so now I would love for a shot to get in on this revolution that is inevitably heading our way! The big problem for me, is I currently (like i said I work fast food) don't have big money to invest, the amount of 1 bitcoin is worth more than everything I own if life times so. I currently have a small amount of money invested into dogecoin, due to the cheap prices. I really want to be part of this revolution, I would like to ask, what could a person do to still be able to get in on the changes that are about to take place, without having the financial backing to actually possess the bit coins themselves.

time-wise, you're in luck. if you hadn't noticed, the "rocket ship" crashed last december. the market's been stuck in a range and today's $1000 dump sort of signifies the bear market isn't quite over yet. so, make that money and invest as you can. it might be a year or two before another bull market is upon us.

also, altcoins usually bleed hard during bitcoin bear markets. i know DOGE saw a nice pump recently, but given the larger market context, i would avoid getting trapped here. during bubbles, the gains are magnified with altcoins, but during bear markets the losses are magnified (vs BTC). keep that in mind during these market phases.
4398  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: HODL is it profitable or not? on: September 06, 2018, 05:50:46 AM
it really depends on what you HODL. i rarely hold altcoins long term. however, there are a handful that i believe have long term viability (or at least long term staying power in the market) and i've invested accordingly.

but i think most altcoins and tokens are cash grabs that will fade over the long term, and in those cases, HODLing may crush your portfolio. i'm definitely a HODLer, but the vast majority of my portfolio is BTC. and even that i hedge with futures when the market goes full bear.
4399  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Bitcoin tax value on: September 06, 2018, 05:32:13 AM
As the title says, we know it is inevitable that Bitcoin trading is gonna get taxed sooner or later (better later, tbh ) so i am asking you , what TAX are you expecting? 19% ? 20%? 10%?

it depends where you live, or where you're a citizen.

in my tax jurisdiction, bitcoin trading has always been taxable. capital gains on BTC are taxable like capital gains on anything else. for me (USA), short term capital gains (trading income) are taxed at the same rate as ordinary income from a job. that means 10-40% depending on which tax bracket you fall into. Undecided
4400  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin is now consuming 1% of the world's electricity. Is that sustainable? on: September 06, 2018, 05:25:23 AM
I'm fairly concerned about this. At this point, bitcoin couldn't  even dare to compete with the traditional financial system. Bitcoin is already consuming that much energy at this level of adoption, what more if its transaction reaches the banking level, that is, several thousand magnitude more than all cryptocurrency combined?

there's a few angles to consider here.

first, the answer to that depends on whether electricity generation averages towards green/renewable energy sources rather than conventional polluting forms.

second, there is no direct relationship between energy consumption from mining and adoption. ideally, upper layer applications like the lightning network, drivechains, etc could allow exponential transaction growth---but off the main blockchain. miner investment into hardware will ebb and flow according to market value and long term speculation; exponential transaction growth doesn't equate to exponential growth in energy consumption.
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