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4381  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin price increases are just getting started on: May 17, 2011, 11:01:44 AM
if you don't support taxes at all, that's a separate matter, but my point is just that the requirement that you pay taxes in dollars doesn't subject you to inflation.

Still it appears contradictory in terms. Supposedly a republic exists by the will of its people, and the government of such nation is thus, by all means, at the service of that people. I presume you agree that holding on inflationary money in the long term is detrimental. This then begs the question as to why an entity sanctioned by the people to care for the people's good figured it should make it more complicated for those who empower it to give it the very substance that empowers it. It doesn't make any sense, from both ends. I hope this wasn't too political.
4382  Economy / Economics / Re: Why is deflation bad? NYTimes link on: May 17, 2011, 10:46:48 AM
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During a period of rapid expansion (which, in turn, has historically stemmed from the increased availability of primary energy in the society), using only precious metals would constrain the availability of liquidity

No. Precious metals, especially gold, can be spread pretty damn thin. Precious metals have been historically used as currency because they fit the bill. They are durable, hard to counterfeit/easy to recognize, internationally accepted AND easy to divide into lesser amounts. If the government wanted to support market liquidity by providing smaller units of exchange, they could have simply minted coins with lower gold and silver content.

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I for one do think a debt-based currency has its uses. It's very useful in a rapidly growing economy, since it strongly encourages lending and thus makes credit (liquidity) very easily available.

One of the ideas behind fiat currency is to force the economy into a debt spiral. The fact that your dollars are steadily losing in value forces you to invest it somewhere. This spurs poor investing practices. The pretense that a deflationary currency would halt economic growth is ludicrous. It would limit malinvestment while switching the economy to a savings basis for investment. Only efficient businesses would be able to raise capital through debt, not to mention the superior buying power of the laboring classes.
4383  Economy / Economics / Re: Why is deflation bad? NYTimes link on: May 17, 2011, 08:17:05 AM
Deflation is less relevant to us because Bitcoin is not a debt-based system like the US.  The 'credit crunch' of 2008-2009 was the problematic kind of deflation.  Not the appreciating currency of a budding virtual economy.

And... Keynesian economists should be ignored.

This. Deflation would be a catastrophe with a debt-base currency... which is a catastrophe to begin with.
4384  Other / Off-topic / Re: It's because of crazy people like this... on: May 16, 2011, 09:14:39 AM
I'm not in support of caging children, or murdering the parents.

Putting a child in a cage long enough to result in the child eating it's own skin in an attempt to survive is enough criminal negligence to require complete removal from society, imo. At this point the parents have clearly expressed their ability to initiate force against others and should have no expectation of gentle treatment at the hands of others.

I agree, I wouldn't handle them gently if they came anywhere near me or my family.

But I wouldn't go out of my way to have them whacked either.


And you wouldn't go out of your way if I went out of mine to whack them. That's the beauty of anarchy. On a more fundamental level, these people have given up on their right to live by forcefully putting the life of another in danger. As such, I have no responsibility to respect their life and a legitimate motive in opposing these people with force. You, on your end, have no motive to stop me from harming them in my attempt to save the child.
4385  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: "Thoughts on Bitcoin Laundering" on: May 16, 2011, 08:34:11 AM
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those laundering transactions are exactly the kinds of things intelligence services are good at figuring out.

Yeah they're so good at it they can't catch laundering done in government fiat currency...

Intelligence services sound like 3 letters governmental agencies to me. The method described here isn't an acceptable proof by any court's standard, it's merely unconfirmed suspicion. Unless said government goes full nazi on you, that material alone isn't enough for them to take action based on it solely.
4386  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Better Alternatives...? on: May 16, 2011, 08:25:33 AM
but just to play devil's advocate, nothing requires even now that you hold for any long-term period currencies that inflate. bitcoin doesn't change that. with regard to your holdings, it just gives you one more savings option. it's not a solution to inflation. it's perhaps a way of transacting easily with something that doesn't inflate, but you'd get that from (say) bullionvault if it implemented a payments system, or from everbank's currency and bullion services if you're in the united states.

and transacting with bitcoin very likely doesn't change your legal tax liability, compared to other transactional systems. whether it makes tax fraud easier is anyone's guess; most income, and certainly most final tax liability, isn't reported by banks or payment systems now anyway. it's self-reported, reported by employers, voluntarily reported, and so on.

when the speculation and musical chairs are over, what will be left is a vehicle for savings and transactions. bitcoin will properly stand or fall on that basis. there is potential irrationality in assuming (1) that the speculation itself is enough, for the speculation isn't productive and simply moves existing money around or (2) that bitcoin's strengths automatically make it optimal. it does have strengths, but it has weaknesses too.

Yes I agree with your point that Bitcoin isn't some sort of magical solution against inflation, nor does it hold a monopoly on it. My point is that it is a proper store of value, that it has the potential of turning into a currency (so far we don't disagree yet) and that it is better at it than other alternatives (point of dissension).

Compared to stocks and real estate, it isn't coped by the government, compared to gold, it is electronic and easier to secure and traded while remaining decentralized, compared to the options you cited, like bullionvault or everbank, it does not require to go through a middle man that might be subject to governmental pressure.

The government can pressure your bank to freeze your assets. Sure you can have most of your wealth in gold, but you lose the convenience. Two of the major reasons the concept of store of value and currency were created are the need for convenience and security. I think you're too quick to discard how Bitcoin offer these properties: even though there exist mediums of exchange that are more convenient than Bitcoin, they are nowhere as secure. Even though there exist mediums of exchange that are more secure than Bitcoin, they are not as convenient.
4387  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Legalize Bitcoins Petition? on: May 16, 2011, 08:06:16 AM
If US decides to outlaw bitcoin - let them. They are willingly preventing themselves from using a best monetary instrument out there, and once the rest of the world will make bitcoin stronger - they'll have to be buying bitcoins the on black market at outrageous prices Smiley Talk about shooting oneself in the proverbial foot.

I don't think there is a single prohibition in the history of mankind that was successfully enforced.
4388  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Better Alternatives...? on: May 16, 2011, 07:06:23 AM
Alipay is an escrow, Bitcoin is an attempt at a store of value, and hopefully a currency. The implications are way different, that's like apples and oranges. As someone said, you can build implement Alipay over Bitcoin. What you have to compare is Bitcoins to Yuans.

bitcoin also probably doesn't change as much politically or operationally as people often think. as another example, to say 'inflation is theft and bitcoin prevents inflation' is too simplistic, for nobody is required to hold 'fiat currency' long-term even now. (even being required to pay taxes in it does not meaningfully coerce one into suffering the effects of inflation; indeed, monotonic inflation helps those who store value elsewhere and convert it to 'fiat currency' on the date taxes are due.) what bitcoin adds, specifically, is just decentralization of a single currency instrument. the practical advantages (and disadvantages) of that long-term have yet to be seen.

I think you omit a point: It is true that one isn't forced hold fiat, but several circumstances work against that. The first one is chronic poor investment. The grand majority of wealth is denominated in fiat, salaries are paid in fiat, dividends are paid in fiat, stocks are traded in fiat. The need to constantly convert increasing amount of fiat injected into the economy, and the fact that fiat forces you to invest, ends up in people investing it poorly, which in itself is detrimental to the economy as a whole.

Next, none of the alternatives to store your value outside of fiat currency is in itself a currency. Not to mention that those alternatives are kept under close watch by the state, like stocks or real estate. Only gold somehow gets away from that surveillance, but it isn't a currency either, and unlike stocks, it isn't electronic. Bitcoin isn't a currency yet, but it holds that potential and is on an electronic support already.

Lastly, whether you like it or not, you have to go through fiat in your daily transactions. The implication is that, since fiat is controlled by the government, it gives too much power to that government, power that a mere store of value cannot take away. On the other hand, a whole new currency that effectively isolates portions of the economy from the government's reach will have a sensible effect on the economy. That's for the political part. But we're not there yet.
4389  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Daily Bitcoin Demographics -1- Are you a geek? on: May 15, 2011, 10:19:16 AM
What's the next level after a geek?

alpha geek. A variation on the male alpha.

Shouldn't it be omega geek?
4390  Local / Discussions générales et utilisation du Bitcoin / Re: I'll be in Paris May 21 - 27 ... on: May 15, 2011, 09:53:54 AM
The sculpture it is then.
4391  Local / Discussions générales et utilisation du Bitcoin / Re: I'll be in Paris May 21 - 27 ... on: May 15, 2011, 09:07:12 AM
the red sculpture
+1, it's easliy spotted, going up to the arch elevator is far from most metro exits

Then what about the metro exit itself. I presume most of us will use it to go there anyways.
4392  Economy / Economics / Re: What are all these coins being spent on? on: May 15, 2011, 08:34:57 AM
The problem now is with the huge appreciation in value of bitcoins, nobody will use them as a currency since they make a better investment.  People will hoard them until the price stabilizes.

Hoarding reduces supply. If anything it helps the price soar.
4393  Local / Discussions générales et utilisation du Bitcoin / Re: I'll be in Paris May 21 - 27 ... on: May 15, 2011, 08:31:56 AM
We could meet at the elevator underneath the arch, narrows it down.
4394  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What are the odds of the BTC reaching 20 USD this summer? on: May 15, 2011, 08:03:52 AM
I think that's a little ridiculous

Yes.

I'm expecting ~$10-11 early june.
4395  Other / Off-topic / Re: It's because of crazy people like this... on: May 15, 2011, 07:42:56 AM
A sociopath can't care for people, but he can care for a person (difference between public/private relationships)
A psychopath can't care for either.

I don't know in which anarchist "guidebook" you read that the life of a child is considered the property of its parents. The life of a being is its own. If the child makes a case of being poorly treated by its parents and tries to break free, it is the child's right, and if the parents oppose it by force, then there is coercion and concept of defending one's life and protecting a person in danger apply perfectly.
4396  Local / Discussions générales et utilisation du Bitcoin / Re: I'll be in Paris May 21 - 27 ... on: May 15, 2011, 06:55:18 AM
I'll also see if I can make a photo of the meeting point and post it on this thread.  Once we are gathered, we will search for a café/restaurant/whatever.

I hope it sounds good to you.


Underneath the arch?
4397  Economy / Economics / Re: Bubble burst? on: May 15, 2011, 06:20:05 AM
Keep in mind everyone also thought the bubble was bursting when it hit a high of $4.15 and then dropped to around $2.50. What happened was it went back to the 3s and stayed there a few days before the current rally.

That's when Gox was getting DDoS'd
4398  Economy / Economics / Re: Value of bitcoin denominated shares will eventually approach 0? on: May 15, 2011, 06:06:13 AM
Well...

One of the ideas of investing in stock is, as someone said, an inflation hedge. I don't see how that doesn't apply to Bitcoins. With fiat currency you want to generally invest in stocks since it's always getting inflated, but let's say the Fed announces a huge increase in their interest rate, would you want to get out of the market? Maybe you should. Now with Bitcoins, you should get into the stock market when you expect the economy to shrink. If I had bought some stock yesterday at $8.5/BTC, I would have made a killing today at $6.
4399  Economy / Economics / Re: Hey you, with the bitcoins, mind the bubble. on: May 14, 2011, 05:18:31 PM
What value, how, why?

Bitcoin is a commodity that holds properties making it suitable to store value because:

It is durable
It is divisible
It is easy to identify and takes more resources to counterfeit than it'll grant return
It is easy to send and receive
It is decentralized
It is deflationary

And whatever else I missed. As such, like gold, people will want to store their value in Bitcoins, as opposed to, say, carrots. The government sanctioned currencies are fiat and centralized, as such they contradict 2 of the elements of a proper store of value. It is but natural to expect people to want to store their wealth in gold, silver, or here Bitcoins, instead of keeping it in fiat. The same motivation that drives people to protect their wealth by investing in real estate is at the core of Bitcoin adoption.

My whole argument holds on this point, that there is a more consequent group of adopters that see Bitcoin for what it is and use it as such than day traders. The "takers" are anyone with wealth, and any new wealth produced. If you refute that use, then indeed my argument is moot to you.

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No I actually tried to say that there could come a situation where the takers disappear - and that then the holders that DO want to sell will have a problem..

"Takers" are a bit ambiguous. But whether you are speaking of speculators or adopters exiting the market, the impact is, assuming no one is willing to replace them, that the market capitalization of Bitcoin will be reduced by the amount these people were contributing. Will it stop the trading of Bitcoins? No. Consider gold. If tomorrow the day traders just drop it altogether, will its price crash? No. Why? Because it has a function as store of value, this why people seek it and this is what makes most of the gold market to begin with.

Fractional reserve banking teaches us that on average, people use 10% of their wealth on a daily basis. People storing their extra profit while others are taking their value out to cover their costs is what makes the market of Bitcoins, not the speculators. The speculators are just a side effect, and technically isolated from the actual market makers.

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But the real irony is that the Fed is constantly accused of printing money. I can currently produce 1 BTC a day for the cost of around .7-1.3 EUR in electricity and sell it for 3-5 times as much.
Where do the extra 2-5 EUR come from? Thin air? What special superduper service did I provide just by hashing and selling them?

Coins mining is no different from inflation. Extra coins aren't producing any wealth, they are taking a little bit of the wealth that all the existing coins were representing. The fact the price is maintained or goes up means that there are more people willing to enter the market than the miners are able to sell daily. The service you provided is akin to gold mining back in the late 1800s. Consider that if tomorrow, mining wasn't rewarding coins anymore, Bitcoins would naturally gain 20-30cents in price every day.

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How is this in any way healthy, how is this any different than Fed money printing

Fed printing is erratic, not subject to much logic and the printed money is distributed to people who produce nothing. Bitcoin mining is linear, the inflation rate is known and maintained within bounds by the network, the mined coins are distributed to the people who provide the work securing the network. Also, I don't see how constantly losing valuation is a healthy behavior for a store of value, which is how fiat works.

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I would also like to point out that we don't all live in countries with a rabid printing press, overdone debt, helicopter Bens or bad fiscal policy. And even there - who is going to ever replace the USD? Nobody. We're all too entangled in it for it to disappear anytime in the next few decades.

Only a few people here advocate for the total disappearance of fiat currencies. I personally don't think they'll disappear anytime soon. The goal of Bitcoin isn't to replace them, simply to offer a proper store of value. If people then choose Bitcoin as their main currency, then that is for the better, but it isn't necessary. Also I'd like to know which country you live in so I finally have an example of a country without a rabid printing press as its source of currency.

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Not sure you got the point of counterparty, liquidity and exchangeability for goods and services under one huge regime via gov/state vs random mini-pool of merchants.

My point was, take the economy of the USA as of today, and replace government controlled and issued currency by a currency that is a only backed by the good will of market actors, like gold. Then compare gov failure in the first situation vs merchant failure in the second one.

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Just that the BTC accepting merchants ocean is a cup of water compared to the actual real world ocean sized ocean of USD / EUR acceptance countries/continents/world.

So the only hindrance to a currency that is far superior to government issued fiat in all and every aspects is its rate of adoption? I think you see where this is going.

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Here begins the irony. Abolishing glass-steagall (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glass%E2%80%93Steagall_Act) is what got us into that mess, coupled with low interest rates and faulty ratings/swap logic.

Do you really think that crisis would have occurred if it wasn't for the Fed's Fractional Reserve Banking and its status as a lender of last resort green-lighting the use of sub prime loans?
4400  Economy / Economics / Re: Hey you, with the bitcoins, mind the bubble. on: May 14, 2011, 03:43:06 PM

Well the big question mark is what happens at the point where all you have left believing in it are the people that already have all the BTC they can afford or mine and nobody else believes in them anymore/want any.

You're left with a filled cup of toxic assets nobody wants to buy anymore because they don't get anything from or for it.

There are several reason to be involved in the Bitcoin market. One of them is because Bitcoins are a proper store of value. The fact that day traders and speculators exit the market doesn't imply that Bitcoins won't be traded anymore. The example you present is a case of holders not willing to sell while there are no takers. Technically, the absence of both supply and demand, which is to say the complete destruction of the Bitcoin economy. That would be assuming 2 things: That only speculators are actually trading Bitcoins, and that long term "herders" are immune to price signals. I think neither are true. I think everyone has a price, and that there is a big enough portion of the market comprised of people that entered it to hold on the long term that it should prevent massive crashes in price. The real question is what is the ratio of speculators to long term adopters, which would allow to define base price vs inflated price.

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Mortgage crisis had some house price tags hit $100 - and those were objects in the real world with tangible uses
If you are referring to the Sub Prime crisis, I'd say there were several significant Fed policies that denatured the market in such a fashion that it can't compare to the Bitcoin market (read deregulated).

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and then either things need to reset or someone needs to come up with a really brilliant (new?) use

I think the higher the price, the higher the incentive to come up with new uses. And certainly those novelties will serve to reinforce Bitcoin at its actual price, if it they would be enough on their own to revive Bitcoin from a massive crash.

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In turn - of course, because as long as a government and attached society exists, there is a liquidity provider of last resort. A merchant going broke or disappearing is a tad more likely than a country/government, historical defaults aside. At the very least the frequency is lower(failed startups, firms, merchants in number vs failed countries)..

Governments have plenty of failures. They just print some extra money to cover for it. The failure of one merchant isn't the doom of the whole economy. It's just one guy going down. In the grand scheme of things, it's a drop of water in the ocean. Whereas the failure of a government is certainly dramatic, so they patch it through debt and fiat printing. From the stand point of an economy, what do you think is healthier, an all powerful entity that keeps bandaging its failures at the cost of every members' wealth, or a bad business going bankrupt?
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