Joe does not set the price. This is not a unit-per-head market like iPhones.  The LBMA sets the price of gold, not Indian wedding planners.  The bulk transactors, the whales, will determine the price of Monero... up until the point where it has a local currency monopoly, dominant reserve status, and the standard of accounting.  Inside of a local currency monopoly, the size of the economy and the money supply will determine the value.  Joe just eats what is put in front of him.

If you want to enter or leave the liquidity pool with more than 5% of the daily churn, you're going to make a whale-sized wave of one sort or another.   In BTC today that is ~10k. So, in the 2-3 year span beyond which I do not like to make quantitative predictions, that would seem a good benchmark for the Monero whale.  I don't think XMRBTC parity will happen by then, but close-ish, maybe half.  And the crypto market volume will be roughly evenly divided.

Who might reasonably want to move $5mm in a single day?  Someone buying a nice retirement villa, or investing in private equity -- or a company funding off-shore operations or making a capital equipment purchase.  Probably no less than 20mm usd net worth...more like 100mm.

He is anticipating the future price.

Either XMR fails catastrophically, or it surpasses BTC by a large margin: The use-cases and scalability of XMR cover a much wider range than BTC; most actors suffer for having their private financial details published indiscriminately.

It is only the limitations of bounded rationality and human linear thinking which assign intermediate outcomes the bulk of the probability mass.  The underlying fundamentals push the actual mass out to the tails.

And for those who are not, the hour is getting late.  Soon it will not be possible to become a Monero whale.  The club doors are already beginning to swing shut.

Personally I am excercising some restraint because I see that Mr. Bullwhale is shorting it down now, and I am quite sure he has adequate powder to win that war. I would rather ride his wake, and let him take the risk.  We will pass 0.03 within a handful of days, regardless.  He needs to both cover, and fold those gains into moar coins.

Pray tell, what is the substantive basis for your statement?

This, and similar questions, are on-topic in the speculation thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=753252.new#new

Just be thankful it is a Monero crowd.  I've seen a few of these in other demographics, and it wasn't pretty.

I would not buy before first minor support about 0173.  0165-0168 is the first major support area i think.

The goal of a clever accumulator here would be to prevent a new ATH.  That can lead to a significant pull-back, and cheaper coins.

EDIT: And yes, this dude is pretty sly.

That is mostly likely to happen at .002022 XMRBTC, which could take minutes, hours, days or weeks, AFAICT.  My central tendency estimate is 24 hours, but the error bars are "yuuuge", as nanobrain might say.  Bias that towards the hours side.


By the time you say that stuff, I see it in my rear-view mirror.

Other topical thoughts:

Right now I am thinking about how to arrange to have lots of BTC on the exchange in Jan - Apr time frame, when U.S. profit-takers will be hard-pressed to cover tax bills.

I think what we have here is a growing concentration of XMR in financial centers:  London, New York.  Not the ideal form of redistribution.

It will get really hard to buy XMR without moving the market during runs, so when you see liquidity, just hit it, and never-mind the price.  Eventually liquidity will rush back in, because profit taking.  But who knows where the price will be by then?  Not I.  Could be higher, could be lower, could be much, much higher.

Don't ever buy more than you can tolerate losing.  But buy every last XMR that you can tolerate losing.

Post-quantum motivation: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/602283/googles-quantum-dream-may-be-just-around-the-corner/

TL;DR: End of 2017, a 50-qubit machine is possible, perhaps even likely.

Deeply envious antipathy in one direction, amused yet saddened contempt in the other.  

Well, I gotta work on Dr. Watsonstein all day, or I would make a nice transaction rate history chart, with short interest rates, lending book size, price and volume series', but maybe one of our neckbeards or bearded-ladies can crack open the basement window for a little while and do it for us?  Matplotlib/seaborn recommended, but ggplot2 is fine.  C'mon, prove you're NEET and 'l33t, and pass around some hard-core doujin chart porn, maybe get a contract offer from bull bear analytics for it.


"Woe to those who call good evil and call evil good"  --Is. 5:20

I'll place a few asks, just in case.  I am pretty sure I can get them back, and I am xmr-heavy anyhow.  From 00635 to 01875 is roughly 3x, so asks between 250 and 450 make sense.

The question is not whether Monero can replace Bitcoin, but whether Bitcoin can compete in the areas of fungibility, privacy, governance.  It can't.  Those features of Monero are out of reach, in practice.  Similarly Monero can't compete in transparency, traceability, and graph analysis.  Where those features are adaptive, Bitcoin clearly outshines Monero.

What I find interesting is whether the punters will entrust their privacy to the operatives and the cut-out implementing Zcash.  I won't, but some will be beguiled by the pretty moon math, so pumpers will use that.

waiting for the ask book to fill up again, followed by another sweep.  rinse, repeat.

looking at candles, I see lots of stupid little red ones, and a few big, sly green ones.

big storm is coming.

So you're saying the next 8766 hours are critical?