You need to look at the etf flows and we should get a good guide. For the last 5 days or so we got around $500M in positive flows, which is massive.

Today we only got BITB which was like $100M positive but got $130M in GBTC which was negative so since Fidelity and blackrock aren’t up, I am assuming we will have maybe $300M or so in positive flows. As long as this keeps happening we should grind up to $60K.

Yeah inflation is getting very sticky. We got a bad cpi print when we assumed we would get a leaner number. What this means is that fed rates won’t happen till end of the year.

And as a result stocks and crypto took a small dip yesterday and later recovered. When rates stay higher longer then stocks will trade sideways or go down.

The issue is when fed cuts rates due to some economic crash then people will buy assets like crypto, real estate, stocks because the market will be flooded with new printed dollars.

Yeah I am not surprised this happened at all. There are many coins which have illiquid order books and people market sell there anyways.

I am assuming this happens because the seller is inexperienced and just market buys and sells everything due to being impatient. When I started trading I was like this also. Had no idea what limit orders were or they just seemed very confusing, especially with stocks.

Basically it’s not a good exchange at all when such a small order can cause this much slippage.

Right now ETH BTC is around 0.0523 or so. However this can change if the ETH etf is approved in May or so. If the etf is approved then you will make more holding ETH than BTC.

BTC is leading now but usually before it tops, some money goes into alts like ETH and it excels faster than bitcoin. Then it goes down to other alt like LTC. Eventually it tops and everything starts to decline.

So the smart move is to sell BTC when you see it topping and then sell the alts like ETH and go into stables.

The numbers are out for Feb 14th for the etf flows. Pretty sure these are all the major ones that make the most difference.

IBIT $224M
Bitwise $47M
Fidelity $119M
ARK $102M
GBTC -$131M

So around $360M net inflows, we got a few more etfs which didn’t report yet. So not as high as yesterday but still a crazy high number.

Yes it’s possible as long as the etf inflows are at $500M per day. So far for the last 5 days or so we got $500M each day. Today as far as I can tell it should also be close to $500M.

So the supply is getting drier and drier and we should go higher and higher as long as the flows continue. Since we broke $50K, we already are getting more and more FOMO because everyone think we will break ATH going closer to the halving dates.

Trading is zero sum, everybody cannot win at trading. It’s not how it works. You trade positions and the position either makes money or loses money.

You make money and usually the counter party loses it and that’s how it works. The money isn’t printed out of thin air.

It’s actually less than zero sum since there are commissions, spreads and other fees which are sent to the brokerage or exchange.

For the past few days we got half a billion dollars worth of bitcoins bought by the etfs. Even today it looks like we
Might get another half a billion dollar day.

Sure we dipped earlier but it was because of the higher than expected CPI print which means that rate cuts need to be pushed further away and hence why stocks crashed and bitcoin followed. However it corrected lately in the day and the daily price change is almost nil.

This isn’t necessarily true because you need to realize that the billions of bitcoins which are AUM for all these etfs are owned by thousands of smaller investors. The etfs don’t own these bitcoins.

Sure there are some institutions buying the etfs but many are regular investors who just want it on their 401K. So there is no proof that these etfs will lead to centralization by rich banks and other large institutions.

I was around when segwit was activated and it was the birth of Bitcoin cash. And at the time it was highly unprofitable to mine bitcoin and very profitable to mine Bitcoin cash.


BCH algo was different and the retarget was quicker but Bitcoin was still 2 weeks. So blocks got awfully long at times and people were worried that the chain might stop. However some loyal miners stayed on the unprofitable bitcoin chain and it survived. It was a scary time for Bitcoin.

I remember back in 2021 when we broke $50K. I assumed it would be the top and sold a few bitcoins prior to that. However we broke thru it like butter and then I assumed we would get resistance at the $75K area or the $100K CAD or AUD area which is where those weaker currencies have their $100K psychological number, which is around $75K USD.

However we topped at $69K and would of never guessed we would of stopped there. Most likely nobody did. Every one was saying $100K was on the books and now we got people saying we will go to $250K or a $1M.

Yeah the bull run is in progress. We just broke the $50K and we are at yearly highs. I think we have only been in the 50K area for only 5 months or so. Mostly we will below it.

We got good flows on the etfs and we are starting to gain traction. I think breaking $50K will get peoples attention and we should slowly progress higher and higher, especially with the stock market rallying also.

If the wallet is open source then most likely they are not creating a way to leak your private key. It might be possible but since the source code is open any mid type of developer can see what is happening and warn others.

With closed source there is no proof but this is why you need to go with a legitamite company which has been around for years. Generally most hard ware wallets are closed source but they developed trust and people still use them despite being closed source.

Yes this is unfair but it’s the way bankruptcy law works. It was the same with MtGox and all the other bankrupt crypto companies.

I guess if you held stablecoins then you don’t care but if you held any type of crypto, especially SOL then you obviously would be upset.

Anyone know when they will start to repay these customers? Pretty sure it won’t be anytime soon. Will take another year or two at least.

I haven’t met anyone who made any decent profit long term from any trading group. I am not talking about being profitable for 6 months. Try and be profitable thru a bear market and sideways market, most of those groups arent.

You can easily make money in a bull market. You can buy pretty much anything and you make a profit. This doesn’t take a genius. What is difficult is surviving the bear markets or worse, when markets are just trading sideways. See how those groups perform then.

I think what scared off most people when we dipped below $40K was the Ftx selling and they didn’t know how much more they would sell and it was also the constant GBTC selling of $500M daily.

Ever since this number declined bitcoins price stopped declining and traded sideways at first and then it started to appreciate.

Now we got almost $500M in positive flows and I expect the $50K area to get tested again this week as long as stock market is booming.

With crypto going against the grain won’t always help you, especially since we are in a bull market. Remember the last 2 cycles. When bitcoin broke $1K there was tons of FOMO and if you sold then you would of missed selling at $20K.

Same with 2021 cycle when we broke $20K, we ended up rallying to $65K and later $69K. Obviously after we peaked, there was still FOMO and would of been good to go against the grain but you wouldn’t know that ahead of time.

I don’t know how it is now but I remember 5 years ago they were very strict.

Even if you used your actual credit card using your real name and address they limited some services at first because there was lots of scams and chargebacks.

After a few good weeks and no missed payments they gave you more control and you could rent more servers.

The reason why he is so popular is because when you are a new investor, you watch his show and think he knows what he is talking about.

It’s gotten to the point where many hedge funds themselves get cautious holding on to positions he is referring to on his shows.

I find that he basically chases price both ways. When something is going up, he talks about it, it peaks usually then because many long term holders start to take profit.

Same with going the opposite direction. He tweeted about bitcoin near the highs, it revered and later near the lows and it reversed again.

Yes the last 2 days we got almost $1B in positive flows. I am surprised. Most likely this week we will attempt to break the yearly high and head towards the $50K area.

As long as we get positive flows everyday in the 9 fig range then we should keep rallying and the FOMO will start. Then if we break the ATH people will be buying because they will expect that we get at least $100K. But if the flows start to turn negative again then we might be topping out again. However with the stock market hitting new highs we should keep pumping.