Imagine we have 5 people only. Each of them owns 200M. Total forging power is 200+200+200+200+200. Agree?
What do you mean when saying "Total forging power"? Why don't we imaging 3 people with each of them owns 333,333333M? I have already solve that task. And simple example to illustrate what we talking about: 1) We have wallet with 2/3 of billion NXT and other person have wallet with 1/3 of the billion 2) We have two wallets with 1/3 of billion NXT and other person have wallet with 1/3 of the billion 2) is obviously we have probabilty of succes 2/3 but in case 1) we have probabilty of succes 3/4  Here on horisontal axis value of opponent hit function and on vertical value of our hit function. Red space - we win. Blue space - opponent win. P.S You may notice that for our last example [4] is not correct. The reason that P is very big and our assumption that 1 > (t m * A * b 0) / N for each possible t m is not true. It's became true for P<1/2. Yes, you are correct in this. You mistake is, as CFB has pointed out, assuming P(200M) = 0.2. This is wrong. Make it simpler, suppose there's only one account, P(1000M) != 1. It should be around 0.5, so that the average interval is around 1 min. If the probability of hit target in 1 min is 1, then the average interval is definitely smaller than 1 min (maybe only 0.5 min depends on the distribution). Ok P(200M) = 0.2 is incorrect but it was not my main point. In my main math post I have not such assumption. And even if I have mistaken in 2 times (do not considered retargeting), the idea is still correct. |
|
|
|
Imagine we have 5 people only. Each of them owns 200M. Total forging power is 200+200+200+200+200. Agree?
What do you mean when saying "Total forging power"? Why don't we imaging 3 people with each of them owns 333,333333M? I have already solve that task. And simple example to illustrate what we talking about: 1) We have wallet with 2/3 of billion NXT and other person have wallet with 1/3 of the billion 2) We have two wallets with 1/3 of billion NXT and other person have wallet with 1/3 of the billion 2) is obviously we have probabilty of succes 2/3 but in case 1) we have probabilty of succes 3/4 Here on horisontal axis value of opponent hit function and on vertical value of our hit function. Red space - we win. Blue space - opponent win. P.S You may notice that for our last example [4] is not correct. The reason that P is very big and our assumption that 1 > (t m * A * b 0) / N for each possible t m is not true. It's became true for P<1/2. |
|
|
|
Thank you for your attention to my math. I agree that my words may be confusing, but they correct. And I also agree that in small amounts phenomenon is negligible. And I want to remember that when I first point out that paradox I even has no idea to make a pool. I just study NXT forging algorithm. And then you answer: Это значит, что форжить одной большой кучей выгоднее, чем несколькими маленькими.
Думаешь надо делать пул? В принципе, его все равно надо делать, потому что те, у кого мало монет сфоржат блок только через тысячу лет. Если кто-то придумает безопасный способ это сделать (через мультисигнатуры или еще как-то), то я бы взялся за реализацию. you said. And I think. Hm... He is right! And start to make pool. Spent about ten days for it on winter holidays. And now make final steps with codding. |
|
|
|
The equation for difference is
d=P/p=P/(P-P2/4)=4/(4-P)
for 1% (1 million) d = 4/3,99 = 1,0025 difference 0,025% CFB have rounded it to 0,03%
for 5% (5 millions) d = 4/3,95 = 1,01265 difference 1,265% I have rounded it to 1,27%
for 20% (20 millions) d = 4/3,8 = 1,05263 difference 5,26%
Do you assume the total coins join forging is 100 millions? Sorry mistake. It should be read for 0,1% (1 million) d = 4/3,99 = 1,0025 difference 0,025% CFB have rounded it to 0,03% for 5% (5 0 millions) d = 4/3,95 = 1,01265 difference 1,265% I have rounded it to 1,27% for 20% (20 0 millions) d = 4/3,8 = 1,05263 difference 5,26% Here I wrote correct numbers: So if we has 1000 persons with 200 000 NXT each, when they unite to the pool they increase their income by a half!
But here we look in to very big pool. If pool power will bee 50 000 000 NXT. It will increase income of member with 50 000 NXT about 12%
|
|
|
|
It means: Yes I have lost coefficient calculation.  Benefit somewhat less than I expected. For 1 million in a single splitting the difference is 0.03% (and here I quoted Come-from-Beyond) For 50 millions in a single splitting the difference is 1.27% And now I say that for 200 millions (20%) in a single splitting the difference is 5.26% (20%/19%) Where is the lie?Alice owns N, Bob owns N/2 + N/2 (==N). Let's assess Bob's chance to hit target assuming that base target is such that Alice hits it within 1 minute (say, 0.001 probability): Every of the accounts has 0.0005 chance to hit the target (0.001 * N/2 / N) Chance that none of the accounts does it == (1 - 0.0005) * (1 - 0.0005) = 0.9995 * 0.9995 = 0.99900025 Chance that any of the accounts does it == 1 - 0.99900025 = 0.00099975 Thus the combined stake does have advantage which proves Dervish point of view. Let's calculate this advantage: Alice / Bob = 0.001 / 0.00099975 = 1.000250062515629 Thus Alice quotient of advantage = 1.000250062515629 - 1 = 0.0003 = 0.03%Max value of advantage quotient can be reached if Bob splits all his coins among very big number of accounts. It will be close to 0.05% in this case. PS: 0.05% advantage is compensated by dispersion and can work only in very long run which doesn't make sense coz currency where stakeholders don't spend coins will die much earlier. Can you please repeat your calculations with 20% but not 0,1% or just say that there is no lie in my words. |
|
|
|
The equation for difference is
d=P/p=P/(P-P2/4)=4/(4-P)
for 1% (1 million) d = 4/3,99 = 1,0025 difference 0,025% CFB have rounded it to 0,03%
for 5% (5 millions) d = 4/3,95 = 1,01265 difference 1,265% I have rounded it to 1,27%
for 20% (20 millions) d = 4/3,8 = 1,05263 difference 5,26%
Do you have any reference of p = P-P 2/4? Say if I have all the Nxts, my probability is certainly 1. Then I divide all my coins to two accounts, the probability of one account is (1 - 1/4) / 2 = 3/8 and the sum of my two accounts becomes 3/4? Does that mean there's 1/4 chance no forge in a round? If I further divide them to 4 accounts, then the forge probability further decreases? So there're more empty rounds? Seems quite hard for me to understand. Here we make assumption that each bi > 0.
We need another wallets with non zero balance to consider the way I does and get this equation. |
|
|
|
|
The equation for difference is
d=P/p=P/(P-P2/4)=4/(4-P)
for 1% (1 million) d = 4/3,99 = 1,0025 difference 0,025% CFB have rounded it to 0,03%
for 5% (5 millions) d = 4/3,95 = 1,01265 difference 1,265% I have rounded it to 1,27%
for 20% (20 millions) d = 4/3,8 = 1,05263 difference 5,26%
|
|
|
|
This is not true. We already discussed this with Dervish in Russian. The fact that he continues to spread incorrect information makes me to suspect that he is going to conduct a scam.This is his post, use Google Translate plz: Да я потерялв рассчётах коэффицент. Выгода несколько меньше чем я ожидал. Для 1 миллиона при одном дроблении разница равна 0.03%. Для 50 миллионов при одном дроблении разница равна 1.27%. I said that my coefficient was incorrect, but not whole idea. Да я потерялв рассчётах коэффицент. Выгода несколько меньше чем я ожидал. Для 1 миллиона при одном дроблении разница равна 0.03%. Для 50 миллионов при одном дроблении разница равна 1.27%. It means: Yes I have lost coefficient calculation. Benefit somewhat less than I expected. For 1 million in a single splitting the difference is 0.03% (and here I quoted Come-from-Beyond) For 50 millions in a single splitting the difference is 1.27% And now I say that for 200 millions (20%) in a single splitting the difference is 5.26% (20%/19%) Where is the lie? |
|
|
|
If what you said is true, then either Nxt should fix this or it will worth nothing due to this unbelievable unfairness to the large holders.
I sure that it can not be fixed easily. |
|
|
|
Lets add some math: We will consider the algorithm for generating units in the system NXT. The algorithm is as follows : For each wallet hash function hit is calculated with value range from 0 to 2 64 ( denoted by 2 64 of N). By the cryptographic properties of hit its value can be regarded as a random variable x with a uniform distribution on the interval [0 , N]. Value of the function is recalculated when a new block appears. On the function hit value time t is calculated in seconds by the formula: t = x / (A * b) [1] where x - is a random variable whose value hit, A - base target ratio is recalculated each unit in order to maintain the required rate of generation units ( performs the same function as the complexity of the system Bitcoin ), b - the balance of the wallet (coins). Wallet for which the value of t is the minimal generates the next block. Consider two situations : 1) All of our available funds belong to the one wallet 2) Funds split into 2 wallet with equals sum. Lets find out in which case the probability to generate a new block is higher. 1 ) Let wallets except our involved in the generation unit K 1, ..., K n; their balances b 1, ..., b n. Here we make assumption that each b i > 0. Then the time to generate a block for each of them t k = x k / (A * b k); [2] Denote t m = min (t 1, ..., t n). In order that our wallet would generate block the following condition must be satisfied t 0 <t m where t 0 time of block generation by our wallet. After substituting [1] we get x / (A * b 0) <t m where b 0 is the number of coins in our wallet , transform and obtain the condition for the random variable x x <t m * A * b 0taking into account the uniformity of x the probability P is P = min{1, (t m * A * b 0) / N} [3] Here we make assumption that 1 > (t m * A * b 0) / N then P = (t m * A * b 0) / N [3.1] 2) The situation is the same but we have to balance two wallets b 0 / 2 on each of them. Probability that t 01 <t m by the formula [3] is p 1 = (t m * A * b 0 / 2 ) / N = (t m * A * b 0) / 2N And substituting the value of [3.1], we obtain p 1 = P/2 and for the second wallet p 2 = (t m * A * b 0 / 2 ) / N = (t m * A * b 0) / 2N = P/2 the probability that our first wallet will not generate block q 1 = 1-p 1 = 1 - P/2 and also for the second wallet q 2 =1-p 2 = 1 - P/2 probability that neither the first nor the second wallet will not generate block is q = q 1 * q 2 = (2-P) 2 / 4 the probability that either the first or the second wallet block is generate p = 1-q = 1 - (2-P) 2 / 4 = (4-(2-P) 2 ) / 4 = (4P-P 2 ) / 4 = P-P 2 / 4 so the final value p = P-P 2 / 4 [4] Ie probability to generate a block in the event of a less than half of funds in the case of storage facilities on one wallet to the square of this probability. And simple example to illustrate what we talking about: 1) We have wallet with 2/3 of billion NXT and other person have wallet with 1/3 of the billion 2) We have two wallets with 1/3 of billion NXT and other person have wallet with 1/3 of the billion 2) is obviously we have probabilty of succes 2/3 but in case 1) we have probabilty of succes 3/4 Here on horisontal axis value of opponent hit function and on vertical value of our hit function. Red space - we win. Blue space - opponent win. P.S You may notice that for our last example [4] is not correct. The reason that P is very big and our assumption that 1 > (t m * A * b 0) / N for each possible t m is not true. It's became true for P<1/2. |
|
|
|
Join a pool does not improve your forging income, but has a huge risk to lose all your Nxt. Why not just keep your own computer/VPS on? Therefore, apparently no one will join a pool like this. It's completely different from PoW pool mining where you don't need to risk anything other than the hashing power for one day or even just one hour.
The algorithm of forging is constructed such way so: p=P-1/4*P 2Where P - is probability to forge block with some amount and p - is probability to forge block with the same amount but split to 2 wallet. For the small amount different is very small. But for big it's not so small. For example if we have wallet with about 200 000 000 NXT it's change of forge about 20%. If we split amount for two wallets with 100 000 000 NXT on each our chance became 19% p = 0,2 - 1/4*0,04 = 0,19 Converse statement is also true. If we union two wallets with individual chance 9,5% of forge we increase their total chance. It became 20%. We can continue. First column number of wallets we store NXT. Second - total chance to forge block. Third chance of each wallet to forge block. | 1 | 20,0000% | 20,0000% | | 2 | 19,0000% | 9,5000% | | 4 | 18,0975% | 4,5244% | | 8 | 17,2787% | 2,1598% | | 16 | 16,5323% | 1,0333% | | 32 | 15,8490% | 0,4953% | | 64 | 15,2210% | 0,2378% | | 128 | 14,6418% | 0,1144% | | 256 | 14,1059% | 0,0551% | | 512 | 13,6084% | 0,0266% | | 1024 | 13,1455% | 0,0128% |
So if we has 1000 persons with 200 000 NXT each, when they unite to the pool they increase their income by a half! But here we look in to very big pool. If pool power will bee 50 000 000 NXT. It will increase income of member with 50 000 NXT about 12% |
|
|
|
Today we generate two blocks!
Were they empty of with fees? Each has 1 NXT fee. |
|
|
|
ну всё терь я мульёнер ))
 ) Надеюсь когда пустят распределённую биржу транзакций станет побольше. |
|
|
|
|
Today we generate two blocks!
|
|
|
|
|
Сегодня пул сгенерл 2 блока!
|
|
|
|
You're not doing much to facilitate trust here. You're coming off as though we should trust you before you give us reason not to. That's not a good approach to take. I've seen it taken with Visacoin. We should not trust you until you give us reason to. Be skeptical of this guy everyone.
Time works on me |
|
|
|
|
Вот например если у меня цепочка застряла час назад. Значит ли, что у всех, кто перечислен у меня как Active peers она тоже застряла?
|
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
