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4421  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: ETH and BTC bottom 2019 on: January 11, 2019, 09:32:22 AM
No-one knows, it's all just speculation. Often, viewing the price charts across a long time-frame can help in determining long trends. These show that the bearish sentiment is still with us, and really it does that show that prices might go lower. I think the crucial point for us to reach is somewhere above $200b across the whole market. Only once we're back to there can we start thinking that the bear trend is ending.
4422  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: ETH and XRP - For top 2 position on: January 10, 2019, 02:34:31 PM
It's meaningless at the moment. They are both excellent projects, but they offer different things and aren't really competing with one another. I think they are both trading well below their true worth, whether in BTC or US$, they both look underpriced.
4423  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: 2019 Bull // run started ....??? btc going to 5k on: January 10, 2019, 08:58:24 AM
We're nowhere near a bull run yet, and the big drop-off in the last couple of hours emphasises this.

Personally I am optimistic that we'll see some price rises for the good coins, but we need to remember that we have a lot of ground to recover before we can even think about a bullish market. A green chart with price rises of 10% or even 50% isn't a bull market - because prices are still so far below what they were, so % increases are against a low starting point. I think we'd need bitcoin well above $6k before we could say we were ready for a bull to start.
4424  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: Is the Market Finally Uptrend? on: January 10, 2019, 08:25:44 AM
People are desperate but they are not ready for more risk.

I agree 100% with this. In times of economic uncertainty, people move their money somewhere safe. Traditionally that has been things like gold. Crypto is pretty much the opposite of stable, and we are years away from crypto being seen as a safe haven.
4425  Other / Meta / Re: Merit & new rank requirements on: January 09, 2019, 03:42:03 PM
I would advise that writing good posts isn't enough - it also depends on where you post them. Many of us, myself included, post mainly in the altcoins section, which is very light on merit. In large part this is because the discussions there in general don't have the technical depth and intelligence that we see in some of the BTC areas.

Weirdly a good place to get merit seems to be in threads about merit - if you are a newbie or junior, and have a history of writing  good (or at least useful) posts in the altcoins section, and then come here and ask about merit, there is a chance that someone might reward you. But you do need the good posts first!
4426  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: The Next Bullrun on: January 09, 2019, 03:35:52 PM
We are all hoping for a new bull run, but look at the charts for the last 12 months to get good perspective on where we are right now. What I think we need is to return to that $200b support line for the whole market, and establish new support above that point. This I think should indicate that we are ready for a bull run. As you can see it's still some distance away at present
4427  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: It is right to come back? on: January 09, 2019, 03:12:52 PM
It is always difficult to predict prices, but it's slightly easier to predict over the longer term, based on repeating patterns.
So for me it looks like the bearish trend hasn't really shown any sign of abating as of yet. If we look at the marketcap for the whole of crypto over the last year, we can see a strong support line around $200b which held for a couple of months. If we can push above this line and hold a new higher support level, then that for me would suggest the start of a bullish market.
But predicting prices based on a couple of days' movement is far harder.
4428  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: ETH return to 1000 USD after hardfork? on: January 09, 2019, 02:00:50 PM
I don't think there's any chance of that sort of price straight after the fork. ETH has rallied somewhat recently, but is stalling around $150 already. I can't see it hitting $1000 any time soon.
4429  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: Bull market soon? Or a trap? 🤔 on: January 09, 2019, 12:54:24 PM
In the present circumstances, a bull market means a return past some previously established support level. I think the line around $200b (whole market) that held for a couple of months late last year is key. If we can return and hold above this line then we are set up for the next bull.
Bear in mind this is almost 100% above current prices - which means for me at least, even price rises of 50% don't signify a bull market yet.
4430  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: ETH and BTC bottom 2019 on: January 09, 2019, 11:31:16 AM
What is everyone predicting as the bottom on the market for ETH and BTC for 2019

We are all guessing and no-one can accurately predict crypto a year ahead... but my feeling is that we'll see a market recovery and that the prices we've seen so far this year will be as low as they go.
4431  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: Ripple Future on: January 08, 2019, 12:32:09 PM
Yes, XRP will increase again, I'm sure of it. One thing that seems to mark out XRP is how large and rapid the price rises are. When it goes up it really takes off a lot quicker than other big coins do.
4432  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: Bull run?? on: January 08, 2019, 11:49:05 AM
I think the definition of "bull run" is different among people, but if you're looking for 20K BTC or alts going to their mid-2017 satoshi prices, I don't think that will happen in 2019. You must be patient longer than that.

If what you're expecting is, that the bearish trend stops and the market starts to recover to better conditions, I think that will probably happen sometime in 2019.

I'd agree with that. The question I suppose is where we'd need to be to say with any confidence that the bearish trend was over. I'd say something in the region of $230-240b whole market cap would be the mark to hit and establish a new support line.
4433  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: Ripple Future on: January 08, 2019, 09:35:56 AM
I didn't like XRP at first, but I've been converted. I think it is a great project and can be instrumental in bridging the gap between the promises of crypto and the needs of the real world.
4434  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: Happy New Year! Welcome 2019 the year of the cryptonians! on: January 08, 2019, 08:34:58 AM
One big question for 2019 is what sort of marketcap do we need before we can say the bear market is over? I would say something above the $200b support line that held for several months in late 2018. If we can establish new support above this point then I think we can say the bear is over... but it's a long way off at the moment.
4435  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: should I start buying ICOs again on: January 08, 2019, 08:23:14 AM
There seems to be a new wave of ICOs coming up again. The crypto market also appears to be getting ready for a bull run.
I am wondering if buying some decent ICOs will be wise at this point.
Will be glad if those who are knowledgeable of past market cycles can advice me on this.

I appreciate all reasoned contributions

The key point for me is always the question: will this ICO hit hardcap? If it doesn't then there is more supply than demand, and prices will fall once it hits the exchanges.
4436  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: The market is back green, are these signs of a bull run? on: January 08, 2019, 08:12:58 AM
We are nowhere near a bull run at the moment. I think the best hope in the short-term is that ETH can keep up its momentum before Constantinople and pull the other coins up with it.
4437  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: 2019 Bull // run started ....??? btc going to 5k on: January 07, 2019, 02:02:04 PM
No, I think it's way too soon to say a bull run has started. The upwards price movements we've seen so far are tiny in dollar terms, and easily fit into the overarching bearish trend. I think we'd need much more substantial and sustained rises before we could say we were in a bull market.
4438  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: ETH BTC: correlation is decreasing on: January 07, 2019, 11:22:29 AM
hi there,

it would seem that the correlation coefficient between ETH and BTC has been decreasing:
https://enroyd.com/ETH_Correlations/

Would a constant correlation coefficient around 0 indicate that Ether's price no longer depends on BTC? Are there any Stats experts here in the forum?

Thanks!


It's just the effects of the upcoming hardfork that will going to take place in ETH. For the next months, the ETH might as well go back to be dependent in terms of price to bitcoin who is currently has a huge impact on other cryptocurrency.

I agree 100%. This is extremely likely to just be the effect of the upcoming Constantinople ETH upgrade. I would expect ETH to remain tied to BTC for a long time.
4439  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: What to do if you are deceived? on: January 07, 2019, 10:59:29 AM
It's very difficult. We all know that laws around crypto are sometimes vague, sometimes non-existent, and vary from country to country. It's very difficult for scammers to be apprehended. The best we can do is thorough research before we get involved with a project.
4440  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: ETH return to 1000 USD after hardfork? on: January 07, 2019, 10:00:22 AM
see good news about eth which always appears every day, some people think that eth will go up to 1000 usd, but will this happen?
because after all eth is the strongest coin after BTC, and I believe that.
and even the new news says that eth prices will be half the price of btc.

I think ETH will pass $1,000 again at some point, but not soon, and certainly not as a result of the fork. The fork is good news and an important step on the development road, but it is not the end state.

ETH is still tied tightly to the rest of crypto, I don't think it will pass $1,000 again until BTC is over $10,000. As for 1 ETH = 1 BTC or 0.5 BTC in price, I don't think that's likely for the foreseeable future.
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