I dont think they are altering rules or operation to try reach a certain result, wizard behind the curtain pulling all the levers to make everyone lose that minute    Ruleset is there all the time but its an interesting question if the promotion bringing in a wider catch of players that in some way alters the nature and frequency of pay outs; that could be a recognizable thing for a regular player.   Could be a thing, I find I get enough dry spells anyway and if I gave up from that alone I'd miss eventual pay, sometimes there's just not the luck anyhow.      

I would give estimate of 15k for even a disaster level sell off because thats an old trend that'll catch it.   Just 30k to 20k is hitting the buffers and slowing it down alot, wild or sharp candle moves that reach but also reverse can go deeper hence I say 15k could fit into a more extreme move.   However we aren't near to that negative falling knife scenario, ie. people get scared to catch it hence it slices a bit more easily.   
  Its actually more dangerous when forming a regular pattern, so a number series of highest prices in 2 day trading boxes and each high is lower then the last observed.   Similarly a pattern of lows that undermine previous lowest price, does so regularly develops a momentum and pressure of its own.   Trading moves or pullback can amount to liquidity cashing out profits, we have to try and recognize which behavior matches well.



Right now, just a plain retraction from 200 day moving average.  We have a reluctance at this point that makes it look like a ceiling, normal price action not something to get too hung up on.

Chess has no luck, no hidden elements or surprise is there and everything is about balance.   Poker is not balanced or known elements and probably is in the majority a luck event.   However I'd probably call it 50/50 on the basis you dont have to enter a hand if you start with bad cards and knowing the difference and likelihood of success is a large part of winning overall or not.   The hands are each luck really but the overall winning a tournament strategy does come down to skill and recognition of opponents so equal in both amounts.
   Chess is hard to make as a gambling situation or game, maybe if we used the pieces in a slot game that could be cool tbh

All that bad news and yet it was still a relatively simple pullback.   By some measures it exceeded the 200 day average but by using main market charts which only include a 5 day week the price fell almost exact down to the big moving average most commonly followed.  The most simple and widely followed indicator, to pull back there is quite normal then yet there was a stack of bad news that occurred with that so my idea of weighing it up is that a proper negative would have pushed us further.   That might yet come but so far its not down much past profit taking. I already expected that some time this year as patience always wears thin and hot money will move onto the next big trade.
  Cooling and reheating is not especially a demonstration of weakness in the market is my take, sounds alot like how they make steel and thats how I view most action a necessary process to forge price action hence a new high remains possible.   The biggest clue would be ongoing monetary policy etc.  DXY remains low.

Selling 10% would be standard portfolio readjustment, big funds usually have various rules they must follow with the holding sometimes they use a hedge and all kinds of strategies that most personal players cannot justify employing.   Sometimes its based volume weighted averages and all kinds of measures but often when price goes up they will shave some off for just such a scenario as now, it leaves him open to rebuying at the lower price I guess though I don't know he will be.

Its always going up and back down again also, everyday pretty much but if we go up more then down its a gain so people just describe it as up.    Its pulling back right now but I'll judge it positively if it holds certain levels in that pullback.



This is the convergance of the weekly, 2 day average and also a trend up and its all about 39k.    More widely observed is the 200 day average and thats the recent ceiling to pricing, not surprising and so not really bearish to pull back from somewhere predictable.   I'll take it as positive if we keep above this area roughly about 38.8k

Trend up vs 7 day average, BTC price is actually quite positive for the moment.   So long as it keeps this trend vs various levels that equate to ceiling possibilities it should progress well.   If we fail to maintain in momentum it can mean speculators leave the long trade and we retract back to mid 30k's

Good to see more fighters sponsored by Stake   Not an expert on the varied disciplines but easy to follow their progress on instagram   https://www.instagram.com/chitoveraufc/ https://www.instagram.com/alexa_grasso/

Spotted this code to signup on a twitch stream, might be useful for someone who is only on this forum - "EXCLUSIVE OFFER - sign up with code ape for 15% rakeback instead of 10% while he's LIVE https://stake.com/?c=ape"   Not related to me personally

The only people who can beat the Brazilians reliably is the Brazilians themselves seems like, maybe its because these teams would be training against each other more often so relative to each other they are closer ranked then appears from purely world ranking vs every other nation.   Still its funny that Plano beat Furia in 2 maps despite a 40 rank disadvantage.
  This time I will favor Furia because the odds are decent for that and I dont know well enough that they cant pull it off but perhaps I'll hedge with 3 maps.   Often I find the hedge type bet is vital to staying profitable or sometimes late bets like if Furia lost the first 6 rounds then won the map, that can happen and would be nice odds probably.
  For an exact repeat of the last matches scoreline, its near 5 to 1 odds which seems like that should just be the bet I placed no further thought.   I'll kick myself later I guess, Plano do seem like a team who can ascend presuming they get on well to progress and practice etc.

An unfortunate restriction on the free exchange of capital and invasion of privacy even, plain old FIAT cash doesn't require some kind of inspection like this so its a poor way to treat customer. 
 Sounds feasible it could be thing though I think its poor that an exchange would try to levy national ideas for gambling on people who may or may not be normally due to pay taxes.   The basic advice has been for years to avoid exchanges when possible for the basic reasoning that depositing at somebody elses companies means you are now totally reliant on them to maintain value and ownership of that deposit which is not the best use of crypto.   I would recommend cashing out if you have to via escrow arrangement not an exchange that require deposits and relinquishing rights.

Yep a rise into the end of month is going to be true to form in that market low doesn't time the way I need it to and we can get the majority of trades around 40k paying off though it looked we had the majority got caught off balance.   The reason that matters is when a large number of people are forced to sell from borrowing or bad trades, panic even if not forced it can lead to great weakness in pricing leading or requiring us to meet a larger ledge or area of strength in the price where people are comfortable buying.   The big number people remember but Im not sure is strong would be 20k, Im not certain if we have to test that low or not as 30k area is the 200 day average for traders in Chicago who ignore weekend daily prices as being out of hours and off their charts.
     Right now I'll guess something far more normal like 200 day average area of about 40k being our sideways landing to end month.

I think of BTC or any other crypto as a bet in that unit, I stopped wanting the hassle to sell it back to Dollars a while back.    We have a much higher price this year then last year and thats the large margin I count it by.

Markets dont usually break  in one stretch, more likely in stages but it does seem volume favors continued weakness.  Right this moment its pushing past 2 day average and could be positive all day for all I know.   General rule is we do not move in straight lines (it'd be easy trading profit if every move was so simple) but weakness will continue until resolved.
  Not far above is an old trend which appears as some ceiling, its not serious resistance but there are many obstacles now in the way.   First run up after breaking out past 20k will prove far easier then repeating the same now after sellers appear in these prices from prior holds.

Froth doesn't determine pricing best, the base line moves gradually despite worries when hype evaporates and this is the most steady gain in BTC to take note of; my highest confidence is with the least desired pricing which long term is still incredible and very bright imo.  The highest prices are the most inaccurate, thats the thing to remember unfortunately.   Fast moves, grand estimates are obviously attractive but also highly unstable compared to regular lows which are the best indicator of direction.   I dont know if others do so but my most serious estimate is when few have an optimistic outlook.

Looking like Nip can take it in 2 maps, the map pick for G2 with inferno favors this possibility as its a high percentage winning map for G2 but also not a bad map for Nip either.    Its not clear how well the team with Device on it may be improved towards that possibility but the odds are pretty high against it so I think might be worth a go.

G2 are listed 5th in the world, didnt realize they were so competent; of course Niko but still a match to watch.   A learning bet for me perhaps but so far looking quite even between them.

''this is the best we've seen NiP play"

Alt coins deflating I think might produce some demand for BTC as thats the most common exchange but I think it just relates in parallel to the hype in BTC itself.   2014 also had alt coins and similar ideas of starting a new blockchain and the growth would be continuous from start until it eclipsed other older ideas, especially a big part was faster confirmation time as I remember.

So its happened more then a few times now and probably also in future we'll see future developments.  I dont think attempts at innovation are a negative, it should not be the case that BTC fails for the existence of something lesser being possible even if some are confused and hold it as a negative against anything cryptography related.   Its think its said every economy naturally tries to destroy itself, its part of a process that strength is tested in order to continue to exist and something along these lines was foreseen by the original protocol team I'am fairly sure.
   Its a cycle it will repeat, in short that wont end.



Why not both, understanding through simplification is what I aspire to.   Apparently Da Vinci said the ultimate Sophistication is Simplicity.
 Imo simple is no bad thing by itself, just so long as we can accept we can never know in absolute certainty.

I relate simple to consensus which is what markets move towards in resolving price action over time vs volume of sales.

There is no certainty but we can assess a good level of probability to moves, its usually quite simple observation in a repeatable trend to selling or buying.  The part that confuses often is the different time frames that may be intra day, over a week or even a year or so.   Its not random, I also dont take the news too seriously especially flashy head lines from important people who can sell newspapers but really arent going to alter factors in crypto itself.    Theres two main points to observe, the dollar and usage of Bitcoin itself then the rest is speculative flows in and out.

It doesnt matter to me if TSLA sell or not, there are more important factors to consider then one company even if they are peak hype Im not that interested as I dont see they are developing anything special.   Its a big name, it helps face value and its worth about 10 seconds consideration.  I hope we expand in more important ways less notable because it will concern a million people in a small way and they'll all have greater growth potential then a billionaire or his company who have already made it.   It'd be way more interesting if TSLA had announced to further hydro electric usage perhaps, maybe thats not them its down to turbines different technology but still I dont count anything said there as determining future prices.


Its not FUD its a feasible scenario, price on any one day doesnt have to matter outside or trading its just that large part of BTC is speculation and perception but not all of it some is steady development.  The  200 day average is rising still which should be some caution on those too negative or over extended towards that view still we do seem to require to set a proper bottom in order to rise back to the 200 day or 40k area then challenge it. etc.

Its rejected attempts to break the downtrend so far, Monday is a good day to see if it can start a new trend having finished the last weekly bar it can mean selling over extends and we get a bounce.



Just waiting for it to break this or the 2 day average and start to confirm above while heading to test 200 day average for example.     I do still consider this a flush, some of it is forced by China wanting to control capital flow within their population, because of the size of the country it would be enough to tip us into a series of sell patterns downwards.

soslex you making me feel ill bro :O    stay chill when betting for best time.    Sports combo bets make more sense for accumulating larger wins, still risky but at least you can reason the streak and only requires a small start not adding into a loss.


I noticed the wheel spins are maxing out back to the what it started with 50 or 500 or 5000    nicer to see then the reduced amount though I realize people upset on price falling I stopped thinking in terms of moving it back to USD anyway as its increasingly a hassle or negative to consider doing so on a regular basis anyhow.  [My reason to do so is in reference to WB and others, the price on any one day or limited time is not always a true reflection of a longer term value ie. price panics into inaccuracy easily.)

Token price fell for FUN so topped up some and will add till Im the next tier, might as well again I think it counts as some negative to get a cheaper price.

Watch it to break this trend and we can talk.    Really any turn around a larger move requires a multi stage effort like a rocket launch its not just one thing in reality.    It can definitely turn around as dollar is so poor and I see all of this as a pullback or profit taking area.    40k is 200 day but I think I said last month that 30k to 20k area would be the buffers and where I would seriously consider a no sell turn around area, however I need to reconsider my reasoning; mostly I defer to my prior negative outlook scenario during positive pricing because I overly react to near term like most people.

The big thing many might be missing is the low on this chart the 30k area is the 200 day average for wall street type traders, reason being they close shop Friday and open Monday.   They have less days involved with crypto and so a different perspective and numbers for the averages.