Arsenal have lost points again (although this time we can say that they were lucky to find one point) and now their chances of winning the championship are very small. It's amazing that they lost a lot of points in games where they should have taken 3 points. I have hope that this is not the end and we will see Arsenal win over City in a personal meeting that will return them to the first place and be quite dramatic, but I would not say that I strongly believe in this. But if you think from the point of view of "drama" then this option looks very logical.

Thanks. I understand you perfectly and with all due respect to your pursuers, I wish you to win second place. The long distance is really exhausting and after you've been in the top 2 for the whole race, it's going to be frustrating to miss out on this position.

By the way, the games in the semi-finals are expected to be very random - bookmakers give City an advantage over Real, and there are not even quotes regarding the second pair (I checked in the afternoon, maybe something has changed). It will be very difficult to predict these games.

buwaytress

Thanks! This is my first time in pools this year and winning even one of them is a fantastic thing.

To fill in the table should I leave my address here or send you a PM?

Chelsea were left without Euro cups next season so they can only do well in domestic competitions. Maybe they will compete for Cups inside of England but I doubt they will have a chance to compete for a title or even for the top 4. The Premier League's problem is too much competition - next season Liverpool will try to regain their positions, Newcastle will definitely strengthen, and Arsenal and City are also unlikely to become weaker. Plus there is Tottenham but I don't know if they will be capable of anything. In such a competitive environment, the prospects for even good teams are unclear, and Chelsea are not a good team yet.

Yes, this looks like the end. The second goal at the beginning of the second half destroys all the plans of United + apparently the forced replacement of Martial (most likely an injury). Sevilla dominates and I don't see how United can turn the game around either.
It seems that the intrigue remained only in two games - Bayer has also fulfilled its task: 3-0 - they are unlikely to miss such an advantage.

Yes, Mourinho would be a good option for this smug club (which is why I don't want him there). But he can also be hired for another purpose - for example, if the management wants to disperse the lazy stars, but at the same time wants to save face, then they can hire Mourinho to disperse them in a season, and then fire him too. If the club wants a real renewal, then this is not the worst option, although rather cynical.

The funny thing is that this is not the final decision. As I have read in the news this decision can in turn be reviewed and points can be deducted again during this season, in the summer after the end of the season or even next season. In fact, there is now complete uncertainty about what will happen, but teams like Inter and Milan are probably almost in mourning.

United should thank fortune that after the first half the score was only 1-0. At the same time, United had exactly zero dangerous moments. Now Ten Hag has a chance to change something in the game - just one goal needs to be scored to equalize the chances. But at the moment, Sevilla looks just a cut above (what magic happens to this team in the Europa League).

Today I made predictions and still chose Napoli - at the moment they have a record streak for the whole season - three games without a win. The previous one was at the beginning of the season and consisted of only two games - and there is nothing else like it for the whole season. I understand that this is all a game with statistics, but if you take it into account, then Napoli should win and not extend the "record" series.

The European Championship or the World Cup are random seven-match tournaments and it is wrong to perceive their separate results as an indicator of strength or weakness. For example, do you remember the path of France at the previous Euro? But it doesn't affect the fact that they are the favorites now. The bookmakers estimate the chances of the teams in terms of global indicators as if it were a tournament of 1000 games, but in reality there is a lot of randomness (since there are not 1000 games) and they take it into account.

If we discard my dislike for City, then I could agree with Iranus, but not specifically that a new champion is needed, but that the Champions League almost every year to the 1/4 stage is already a repetition of the past. Even this season when Benfica and Napoli have gone so far (and Inter have a chance) we see the same thing. For example, Real last season in the playoffs played with Liverpool, Chelsea and City - and this year we see the same thing.
On the one hand, it's cool to see such confrontations that become historical, on the other hand, there is some element of boredom in this.

You say some things from the fantasy world. For example, Carlsen did not win the match for the chess crown (which is currently underway) although he could have.
You can talk as much as you like about the past, about past achievements, about “what would happen if”, but now two strongest chess players are playing in the match and Carlsen is weaker than both of them in terms of fighting for the chess crown.

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In the meantime, Nepomniachtchi traded queens and thus turned an extremely sharp position into a draw. So the game ended - which is clearly in favor of Nepomniachtchi, who retains the lead.

Положа руку на сердце: конечно хочу. Как и все люди подвержен чувству тщеславия, хотя бы уже из-за этого хочется. Но понятное дело что по игре в которой я уже работаю и в которой я уже профи делать этого не стоит - зачем плодить конкурентов. Думаю что если я сниму видос где покажу свою ферму, историю трейдов, кешфлоу, то видео может даже выстрелить и набрать пару сотен тысяч просмотров, но какова будет перспектива/монетизация этого? Пока не вижу.

У меня, кстати, есть свой ютуб канал (и да там видео именно по этой игре) - начал его пару лет назад, но сейчас не занимаюсь. Самые удачные видео где-то в районе 15к просмотров собрали (может уже больше). И это при нуле рекламы и вцелом маркетинга. Вообще я это направление рассматривал как перспективное, но тут как и везде надо полноценно работать и самое главное стабильно. Можно выпустить одно топовое видео которое соберет лямы просмотров, но зарабатывает реальные бабки тот кто делает "средние" видео, но постоянно.
Тогда я бросил ютуб из-за того что рубил деньги здесь и сейчас и для работы на перспективу просто не было сил и времени. Потом война и это вообще почти потеряло актуальность. Сейчас опять пока просто рублю бабки, и конечно о чем-то серьезном думаю (у меня много идей), но ввиду рубки бабок со временем на новые проекты опять так себе.

I have a similar feeling - I think that in this game a bet on Arsenal with a handicap of -2 goals would be good. The coefficient of 2.38 is a good compensation for the risk. Arsenal, after two games where they missed a similar advantage, will try to win with a goal difference of more than 2 (incredible logic, right?).
It's a pity that the Brighton - City game has been postponed, I think Brighton had a chance to take points from City after such a grueling match with Bayern.

Ding still has problems with time management today - he thought about the 17th move for more than 30 minutes. This is very good for Nepomniachtchi, who likes to think during the opponent's turn and plays very quickly. Now the position on the board is very difficult - Black has a bishop less, but has three passed pawns. I hope Nepomniachtchi will be able to repulse the attack and then most likely he will win.

Many thanks to everyone for the congratulations (unfortunately I gave away all my merits, haha, but hardly anyone needs them here)!

I haven't formally guaranteed myself first place yet, but the probability that I'll score less than 3.5 points in the remaining games and bullrun2020bro guess the correct score in 5 games is approximately 6⁵ * 1.3 =~ 1 in 10,000. So I hope that first prize is already mine.

It's been a long and sometimes exhausting journey (it's hard to be a leader and not think you're close to winning, but there are always so many games to the end) due to the friendly trolling in this thread, hehe.
Of the highlights, I remember this one:



It's nice to go against the opinion of the bookmakers and the majority of the pool participants and be right.

Thanks again to everyone and good luck in the upcoming rounds!

13. Curtis Blaydes
12. Ricky Simon
11. Brad Tavares
10. Bobby Green
9. Iasmin Lucindo
8. Matthew Semelsberger
(1 point each)
7. Ricky Glenn
6. Montel Jackson
5. Karol Rosa
4. Mohammad Usman
3. Francis Marshall
2. Karine Silva
1. Danaa Batgerel

NOT go the Full Distance 6

If Tottenham lose they have no (real) chance to beat Newcastle. Newcastle have a game in hand so Tottenham will need to play a 9-point lead over 6 games. This is extremely unlikely.
By the way, it's funny, but any outcome of the game other than a draw destroys the chances of all other pursuers.

Perhaps your comments would make more sense if it was a round robin tournament, but this is a tournament where everything is decided in the playoffs and there is a lot of randomness here - a lot depends on who gets into the easy way and who gets into the hard one. I think it's clear that if Germany has easy opponents and France plays England in the 1/8 and then Spain/Belgium in the 1/4, then Germany will have more chances and vice versa. I think bookmakers take this into account when setting quotes.

1. Over
2. Over
3. No
4. No
5. 2nd
6. Over
7. Over
8. Yes
9. No

Tiebreaker: 21'

With Salernitana, Napoli will play on the 29th, and this week they have a game with Juventus. I don’t even know if Napoli will be the favorite in this game - Juventus is teetering on the brink of the European Cup zone and I’m sure that they want to stay in it or rise higher. Now Napoli are in a slump (one win in five games) and maybe they will lose to Juventus - I wonder if this will affect their confidence in future games? Although even in the worst case they will have an advantage of 11 points.