i286 seems to be having a bug today. I watched a stream of these "sells" go through at 126.38. During that time there was an ASK at 126.38 and each time one of the trades went through, the ask was reduced by 1BTC.

Actually they're buys being incorrectly coded as sells. If you looked at the bid and ask you could see that.

5th Sep?  ~$140 has been a major resistance level all over the chart, not just Sep 5.  Don't forget about April 29, when they started dumping 250K BTC day.  Yeah remember the days when there was REAL volume? THOSE are the days that matter and which control the trends.  The volume as of late has been totally pathetic in comparison.

The rise of 2013 was much higher than the rise of 2012.  Some people keep speaking of the obvious "line" on the log chart. However I am having trouble finding this line and in fact I can draw several lines which would allow btc to go much lower than it is now before going up again. I have plotted a couple for reference.



The low volume and the lack of significant bid depth on mtgox that continues to fail to fill in above 125 seems to confirm my suspicion that it isn't ready to go higher at this point. I think this ordeal with the bid depth was an inflection point for this Jul-Aug rally.  

OMG BTC NOOOOOOOOOOO!

RS promises not to dilute the underlying structure (OS) of his shares, which is as follows:

There are a total of 100,000 fee shares, each representing .001% of the total exchange fees
- 5,000 are tradable on the mcxfee/btc exchange pair. (so there is a 5000 "float")
- 25,000 are issued to to an interest payment system so that 25% of fees are distributed to members as interest on their deposits.
- 70,000 are issued to realsolid.

At any point, realsolid could dip into the 70,000 shares the he holds and put them on the market or pre-sell them on a forum before they go live on the market. Itll most likely be a chunk of 5,000 at a time. This wouldn't dilute or change the amount of fees that each share earns. However, it would dilute the speculative mcxfee/btc exchange pair by changing the float from 5,000 to 10,000/etc and might collapse the bubble that it's in.

Basically the OS wont be diluted but the float will.

Prior to the update, mcxnow was doing an average of $300 volume per day. There has been a lot of new volume since the update during the past 3 days in mcxfee (which only generates fees in one direction) and litecoin. This volume may die down. But lets be very generous and say that the exchange has achieved 133% instant growth and now generates an average of $800 volume per day  . Fair?

Now each mcxfee share earn's its owner .001% of fees per day. There is a popular misconception that the percentage is .01% but it's actually .001%.

So currently each fee share earns $800 * .00001 = $.008 per day.

To grow to $1 per day, the revenue must grow by a factor of $1/$.008 = 125

Therefore, the exchange and/or btc must grow by 12,500% to meet this projection (on top of sustaining the 133% of instant growth it just may have saw)...

Well I wish RealSolid the best of luck in acheiving 12,500% growth in 6 months.

How about... "Whale Observer"

Meanwhile, in Japan,

The last 2 days (or two weeks) on mtgox:

There is an app on the Android market called Stamp Trader. It logs into your BitStamp account using username/password so you can trade with the app. It worries me that the app uses a username/password versus an api key.  Does anyone know if this app safe to use? Thanks.

I doubt btc is going to go straight to $3,000 without plenty of dips and trading opportunities for me to catch and a huge bubble burst where tons of profit is to be made. But even if you are right and shorting is just THAT risky, my point still stands that IF you make a SUCCESSFUL short and multiply your coins every once in a while during a collapse, THEN you should feel much better about having an increased amount of btc and being even wealthier in the future than if you had your planned amount of btc on a fixed course. Kind of like winning big at gambling. You can say its risky but can't deny you'd feel great if you won.

Actually a simpler way of explaining is that after a successful short you are not only feeling one of the feelings but are feeling both. You have increased your coin count AND the coins are going to rise.

I started trading when btc was $250. Maybe that helps you understand :p.  I now have the ability to buy that many times more btc than I would have if I had gone long/hold then. If I went long then I wouldn't even have any gain at all right now. In fiat terms I'd still be at a 50% loss. Yuck!

I think even if you are a turbo bull you should WANT to see gains made by shorting. Here's why: let's say you believe btc is the future and is inevitably going to $100,000.  You could take a long position of Xbtc and you'll know that when that day comes you'll eventually have $X00,000. You could either

A)buy and hold and accept the future of $X00,000, or
B)short at the right times to make even more btc so you have Y btc and in the future you'll have $Y00,000.

Btc offers so much volatility that Y could potentially be 100 times greater than X easily. For me its already 20. So, against intuition you should actually enjoy the shorting more. It is a way to improve the future even more beyond your fixed prediction of the price.

Really, seeing the btc price rise shouldn't please you that if you've already set a prediction. You're just witnessing an already planned and inevitable event unfold. Conversely you shouldn't be upset to see btc go down, because you believe that its going to recover and still reach the same fixed price.

Buy and hold is a fixed and limited course while shorting allows you to take action to reach an unlimited potential. Do you want 100 times your money or 10,000 times your money?

I guess it depends if you have the capacity to execute the trades properly. Its not hard after a 1000% rise occurs in 2 months.

I don't see anything changing with the market depth on Clark Moody or i286. i286 still says:

Sum bid: $13,255,954
Sum ask: 49,094

I have seen depth jumping around on both sides of the book on bitcoinity all day. There is a 3k bid wall showing there at $133, but not in Clark Moody or i286. So its probably not real as bitcoinity has been malfunctioning for weeks. It might be data from earlier points in time.

Strange things have been happening today. Earlier this morning bitcoin paranoid suddenly told me that gox had fallen 4.8% to $128! At this point I immediately panic sold a small position on btce. Grrrr.

Also, for those of you talking about gox being ddosed, it happened to bitstamp  yesterday too...

Hello bitcoiners.

I am tera (short for 2^40). You might know me from the btce trollbox. I have realized that my conversations there are doomed to last no longer than 5 minutes and then be completely forgotten about, as well as have a limited audience with a limited amount of information. So I have decided to come here to be more productive.

I am mostly a daytrader. A ninja-daytrader that is, where I use my kung-fu skills to latch on to waveforms caused by sharp movements, technical glitches, and movements on other exchanges. I also do some short-to-mid term technical analysis using charts and market depths. I know for some reason you guys loathe daytrading, but if you know how to do it right it can be extremely profitable.  I now have 20x as many funds as I would have if I had simply bought and held bitcoin when I entered the game.

Now I know bitcoin is super bullish and all but at the moment I am going to play devil's advocate by being a short term bear, to bring balance into the universe against the mass of turbo bulls here. This may go on until I feel that the markets have sufficient liquidity to support a currency of the magnitude of $1.5B and rising, as well as having answers to some apocalyptic technical questions.

I may also in the future develop some services that use bitcoin.

I hope to see you all in Speculation, the technical boards, and Bitcoin Discussion.