4 The greater market cap in bitcoins, the more attractive it is for the target of a 51% attack, as there is more to gain
In my opinion if the majority of coins are horded instead of used as a currency (i.e. wealth storage) then the bitcoin could have long term issues, and possibly be subjected to attack.
Thoughts?
These two contradict. If majority of coins are hoarded as a store of value, then the gain of a 51% attack will be minimum Overall, 51% attack is not a big deal, you can only disturb the network for a while and make a couple of double spend, which might be observed anyway, for existing coin hoarders, 51% attack won't affect them The incentive for mining in the future is a question, but it is too uncertain to discuss it now without a roughly idea how the future environment looks like |
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Do you need to pay tax if you bought some wow gold?
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I feel that first batch chips (June) going to generate the worst performed rigs and they might revise the design on later batch of chips to get better power/thermal performance Sweet, so ten+ months of waiting and early BFL ASIC investors get partially functional pre-production prototypes. Nice. Normally first generation hardware users will become lab rats  Avalon team is awsome, so far not so much complains about their first batch units, very impressive! |
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"Drivers are available during software update. To update drivers choose Update in Help menu. Drivers for the Dragon-2 ASIC are installed autamatically as you plug it to the computer. Contact support if you have any question."  One of my guess: They have large amount of ASIC order from BFL and now they are making a huge housing to hold several singles and do a re-branding |
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So it is clear this is not pre-order any more. Team avalon has started the price lifting trend with a 4X increase in price, BFL is doing reasonably ok... I heard that the latest BFL order numbers have passed 32000
Even 75000 chips of 8GH delivered and total network hashing power rised to 1PH, 3 months ROI is still possible with current BTC exchange price
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This again proved that money can be just saved without any corresponding goods/services. If all these money were chased out by governments, there will be super inflation on everything, but now it could be only super inflation on bitcoin |
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There is one change that really make difference: Late adopter advantage, means the later you join the game, the better you are positioned.
For example, all the mined coin can only exist for 100 days, they have the highest value when it first mined, and they get less and less each day
But it seems this is close to the character of all the non-lasting goods like food, cloth etc... Then no one will care about it
Out of this, I don't see any new ideas being fundamentally different
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There is no choice, BFL is the only company that have product for sell now
Even you mined 1 coin in a year with a jalapeno, that is still about 1 year ROI
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Interested, what about pricing? BFL provide such service at $25/month for a single SC
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This year's cooling discussion will start This is for 20 mini-rigs  |
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I feel that first batch chips (June) going to generate the worst performed rigs and they might revise the design on later batch of chips to get better power/thermal performance
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You must cost energy to generate coin, that is the vital point of honest money: It must be generated by using energy/labor/value, so that each coin can be generated debt free, the value of each coin has already been paid when the coin is made
And this perfectly match a function telling that the daily coin value tends to be the cap for daily energy cost, if daily energy cost is higher than daily coin value, many miners will stop mining
Fiat money does not require energy to generate, that is the reason it contains no value in principle, it must be backed by a debt to be able to trade other goods/services
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Following this logic, gold is also a ponzi scheme
Normally when people can acquire the gold/coin through mining, they will go that way instead of buying, but there is only 3600 coin per day, that is a deadly design
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This is actually the biggest danger for bitcoin: Its price can rise to whatever level you can not imagine and no one can stop it
In order to stop a price bubble, you need to increase the supply of bitcoin, but that is not possible. The best effort is to reduce the fiat money supply, but unless all the world central bank tighten at the same time, one country's tighten action will just raise its currency exchange rate and hurt its own export, so most possibly no one will tighten, and added money supply just get sucked into bitcoin daily
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To highlight the absurdity, at the current rate, the "market cap" of BTC would exceed the total aggregate wealth of the entire planet in a year. But that amount of wealth is not, obviously, available. And LTC may not be far behind. Something must give, sooner or later.
Fictional wealth can be magnitudes higher than real wealth, this is totally normal. For example, gold have 10 trillion market cap, but it does not mean that there are 10 trillion worth of goods available for purchase if all these gold are poured out. Actually if everyone is selling gold, its price will crash hard since there are not so many cash ready to purchase Same, if everyone sell their bitcoin, the price will crash to single digits, but just like gold, people have incentive to hold many of their coins and spend only a little, have a deep reserve can give you lots of safety and freedom |
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I think a big reason behind the current rush is all those money that FED printed during the past 3 years
All these money have been sitting in someone's pocket, since there are just no good investment opportunities out there, maybe Gold/Apple/Google managed to grab a little of those money, but majority of those money had nowhere to go
Now they finally find a new star investment target, and several trillions of US dollar is pouring out
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In cyberspace, anything could happen, don't be limited by your imagination |
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Why should they do that when no one is competing with them? Suppose the rest of the network is 6TH now, I could mine with 6TH with a daily profit of 1800 coins and a power consumption of 200 coins; or I could mine with 60TH, 3273 coins, but 10 times the power consumption of 2000 coins. Is there any motivation for the later? Well you need a chart to find out the optimum hashing power, but it is definitely not higher the better
Once you have majority of the hashing power, there is no point in increasing it, because you are basically competing against yourself. (Also, if you are the only miner you could do it all on one CPU.) However, no miner is in this position. You could argue that all the miners could make a pact about the maximum capacity, but, there is simply no way to enforce this on a P2P network. If a miner can increase his profit by adding more capacity, he will do so. And this arms race has a very easily predictable result. Take Avalon for example, this time they can deliver 100TH which is 4x the original network hashing power, if bitcoin price is very high they have enough motivation to keep mining for themselves with a little blow a certain fraction of total network hashing power and maximize their profit Of course this time they sell the ASIC mining rigs to everyone, but there are also companies like ASICminer, they never sell the equipment to public and do not want to expand the capacity, just check their thread Again, your estimation is based on a situation that most of the miner have access to the latest mining technology. In my opinion this is just a temporary situation in early stage of bitcoin adoption. When bitcoin has reached mainstream acceptance and high valuation, mining might require highly specialized hardware, thus become not feasible for normal users, and several large mining corporations might form some kind of aliance to not expand the capacity to hurt each other's profit and save energy, just like OPEC. Hopefully we are not going to see this day too soon |
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Pirate sold his coin at $15 or something?
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The difficulty is related to total hashing power (e.g. electricity if most of the miners have access to similar mining technology), and daily electricity cost won't be higher than daily coin output value, so there is some correlation. The question is: which is the cause, difficulty or price?
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